Rick Perry Vs. Obama In 2012: Polls Say Obama!

According To Recent Polls If The 2012 General Election Were Held Today, Pres. Obama Would Still Beat Rick Perry.

So Much For Conservative Maximalism & Nixon's Obsolete "Southern Strategy".

RE-ELECT OBAMA IN 2012!!

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Texas lukewarm on Perry bid

A potential Rick Perry Presidential bid has been getting oodles of attention in the last few weeks. There's one place where voters aren't real into the possibility though- Texas. Only 33% of voters in the state think he should make a bid for the White House compared to 59% opposed to him running. More surprising than that? Perry actually trails Barack Obama 47-45 in a hypothetical match up in the state.

Perry's trailing Obama certainly has nothing to do with the President being popular. Only 42% of voters in the state like the job he's doing to 55% who rate him poorly. Texas is a Republican state to begin with him and Obama has a lot more Democrats (14%) who disapprove of him than GOP voters who approve (6%) and beyond that he's on negative ground with independents at 46/47.

Perry, however, is almost as unpopular. Only 43% of voters approve of him with 52% giving him bad marks. Most striking in Perry's numbers is a horrible 33/62 standing with independents. He also has 21% of Republicans disapproving of him while only 12% of Democrats cross over to give him good marks. Perry may prove to be a strong Presidential candidate but his numbers in Texas are nothing to write home about.

The only potential Republican candidate for President in Texas who does as bad as Perry is Sarah Palin. She has a 37/55 favorability breakdown and trails Obama 46-44 in a head to head. That's just more confirmation that the GOP nominating her could lead to a 400+ electoral vote landslide reelection for Obama.

Most of the rest of the GOP field leads Obama. Mitt Romney fares the best with an 8 point lead at 50-42, Ron Paul is up 5 at 45-40, Michele Bachmann has a 3 point advantage at 47-44, and Tim Pawlenty's up by a single point at 44-43. Herman Cain ties the President at 43%.

Before Democrats get too excited about the prospect of winning Texas this needs to be noted- the vast majority of undecideds in all of these match ups disapprove of the job Obama is doing. For instance in the match up with Perry 88% of undecideds disapprove of Obama's job performance to only 8% who approve. If you allocate the undecided voters based on their assessment of Obama that shifts the numbers 7 points and puts Perry ahead by 5.

The undecideds break down similarly in most of the head to heads between Obama and the various respective GOP candidates, something that would seem to reflect a lot of voters disliking the President but having their doubts about the GOP field of candidates as well. When push comes to shove those folks are not likely to be in the President's corner.

One thing that would definitely help Obama's prospects of winning the state though? If everyone who thought Texas should secede from the union just stayed home from the polls next year. 18% of voters think the state should secede to 71% who are opposed to the idea with 11% unsure.

The 18% who want to secede are 61% Republicans and only 13% Democrats. So the voters left over would almost surely put Texas into the blue column- with the 71% who oppose secession Obama leads Romney by 6, Paul by 12, Pawlenty, Cain, and Bachmann by 15, Palin by 17, and Perry by 19. Demographic change may make Texas winnable for Democrats in the long run but in the shorter term successfully encouraging the secessionists to stay at home would be a winning strategy.

One final note on Texas- we did an analysis a couple weeks ago finding that most of the Republican Presidential candidates had upside down favorability numbers in their home states and backers of Ron Paul were very mad we didn't have Texas numbers for him. Now we do- 30% of voters rate him favorably to 46% with a negative opinion. So he's as unpopular on the home front as all the rest.


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Sources: Public Policy Polling, MSNBC, TPM, Google Maps

Bev Perdue's Approval Rating At 33%, Trails Pat McCrory For 2012

N.C. Republicans favor McCrory for Gov., Huckabee for President.


Even in an eight-candidate field of remote possibilities, Pat McCrory is the choice of his party faithful to repeat his challenge to Bev Perdue in 2012.

The race for President in the state, however, is, as most everywhere else, unclear, with Mike Huckabee barely ahead of Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich.

McCrory gets more than three times the support of the next candidate when usual
Republican primary voters in the Tar Heel State are asked who they want to be their
standard bearer in two years.

He pulls 37% in a slate of potential GOP gubernatorial primary candidates that includes current party chairman and former Raleigh mayor Tom Fetzer (12%), 5th-District Congresswoman Virginia Foxx (11%), 9th-District Congresswoman Sue Myrick (6%), former state senator and 2008 gubernatorial aspirant
Fred Smith (4%), 10th-District Congressman Patrick McHenry (3%), Labor
Commissioner Cherie Berry (3%), and incoming State Senate President Pro Tempore Phil
Berger (2%), with 22% preferring someone unnamed or not sure of their current
preference.

At the top of the ballot, Huckabee gets a quarter of the vote to Palin’s 21%, Gingrich’s 17%, Mitt Romney’s 10%, Ron Paul’s 7%, Tim Pawlenty’s 4%, John Thune’s 2%, and Mitch Daniels’ 1%, with 12% undecided or preferring another candidate.

Palin actually leads Huckabee, 27-24, among the 24% share of moderates, with Gingrich and Romney each at 12%, but Huckabee prevails overall because of his 26-20 advantage with the 72% who call themselves conservative. Gingrich is likewise boosted by his 19% with them.

“At this point, Pat McCrory could go unchallenged in the 2012 Republican primary to
face off against Bev Perdue.

He is already looking like the de facto nominee and can effectively spend almost the next two years raising money and his profile while Perdue governs,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 400 typical North Carolina Republican primary voters from November 19th
to 21st. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.9%.

Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.


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Sources: Public Policy Polling, WCNC, Youtube, Google Maps

Pat McCrory Prepares For 2012 GOP Victory: Leading Perdue In Polls

Pat McCrory Leads Perdue In Rematch


PPP's first poll of the 2012 Governor's race in North Carolina finds Pat McCrory well ahead of Bev Perdue in a hypothetical rematch of their 2008 contest, 49-37. Perdue also trails NC GOP chair Tom Fetzer in a possible contest, although only by a 42-40 margin.

Part of the reason for Perdue's dicey early standing is her continued poor approval ratings. Only 33% of voters in the state approve of the job she's doing while 49% disapprove. But the other part is that Pat McCrory is a pretty well liked politician. Although a lot of folks have already forgotten who he is- 45% of voters in the state have no opinion of him- those who do remember him from 2 years ago generally look upon him fondly. 34% have a favorable view of him to only 20% with a negative one.

Republicans (49/11 spread) and independents (34/18) are pretty overwhelmingly positive toward him and even with Democrats there are almost as many- 24%- with a positive opinion of him as there are- 27% with a negative one.

McCrory leads Perdue 58-27 with Independents.

By comparison PPP's final 2008 poll found him up just 7 points on Perdue with them.




McCrory is also getting 25% of Democrats, compared to 17% we found him with on our final 2008 poll. And McCrory also does a good job of keeping Republicans in line- Perdue gets only 5% of the GOP vote at this point in time, compared to 10% she was receiving at the end of the last election.

There's not a lot of doubt that McCrory would defeat Perdue if the election was held today. But of course it's not. Earlier this month the Governor of Arizona, who had trailed by a good deal in polling throughout much of 2009, and the Governor of Illinois, who trailed by a good deal in polling throughout pretty much all of 2010, were both reelected. Perdue has a lot of work to do with Democrats and independents between now and November of 2012, but it's not impossible for someone in her current position to win reelection.



The most interesting thing about Fetzer's numbers might be that as many press conferences as he held this year, 70% of voters across the state don't know who he is. And when you get outside the Triangle that number rises closer to 80%. Democrats dislike Fetzer more strongly (8/27) than Republicans like him (16/9). Independents have a dim view of Fetzer as well at 9/16. Given McCrory's strength Fetzer's electoral prospects in 2012 might look brighter in a race for Lieutenant Governor than the big office.

Full results here




Pat McCrory Prepares For 2012 Rematch As Bev Perdue Continues To Screw Up


Pat McCrory's calendar seems penciled with listings for someone ready for a rematch with Gov. Beverly Perdue.

McCrory, who stepped down as Charlotte mayor after 16 years last fall, has become a popular speaker statewide on the Republican Party's chicken dinner circuit, headlining many GOP fundraisers. He's been a frequent visitor on local and even national television political roundtables after narrowly losing to Perdue in November 2008.

Now he has started a political action committee to raise money for legislative candidates and highlight issues he promoted in the 2008 race, including transportation, criminal justice and getting rid of what he called "a culture of corruption" in state government.

"North Carolina state government is in a mess," the 53-year-old McCrory said in a video announcing his New Leadership PAC and identifying Democrats, including Perdue, whom he believes are part of the problem. "It's time for new leadership in our state and it must start now in 2010."

What about 2012?

McCrory said in an interview he's going to strongly consider a repeat gubernatorial bid. A longtime observer of his political career is more certain.

"He's going to run for governor," said Ted Arrington, a political science professor at University of North Carolina at Charlotte.

Arrington said it's a challenge for McCrory to keep his name in front of the general public now that he's the ex-mayor. He also needs to avoid negative publicity that could harm him politically while satisfying both the business community that backed him for years and the new tea party movement to avoid a bruising GOP primary.

"I think he's still popular, but he's just disappeared from everything," Arrington said. "He's behind the scenes. He's working the party leaders."

McCrory almost became just the third Republican since 1901 to move to the Executive Mansion in Raleigh when he lost to Perdue by 3 percentage points in the closest governor's race in 36 years. A month later, he announced he wouldn't seek an eighth two-year term as mayor in 2009.

Since leaving the mayor's post, McCrory joined a Charlotte law firm as a public policy consultant in addition to working with his brother's business and boosted his outside political involvement. He kicked off the New Leadership PAC this spring with a mass fundraising letter. The PAC's treasurer is Jack Hawke, McCrory's chief political consultant in the 2008 campaign.

A political action committee is a common tool for someone interested in running for federal office such as president. John Edwards had one, as does current Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. But it's unusual for someone seeking a North Carolina state government office.

McCrory said he plans to use social networking, electronic town hall meetings and other technology to communicate with supporters about candidates and issues. He said President Obama's use of technology during the 2008 campaign played a role in helping Perdue win by energizing Democrats to vote.



"I felt the impact first hand in my race, and I want to help other candidates not be behind the 8-ball in that area," McCrory said.

The political committee collected nearly $25,000 by mid-April. Retired accountant Ken Collins of Monroe gave $100 to McCrory's new venture because he said the ex-mayor "seems to be a guy that can get along across political lines. You can't say that about everybody."

State Democratic Party executive director Andrew Whalen said the ex-mayor's New Leadership PAC "seems to be nothing more than an attempt to repackage those same failed ideas from his failed gubernatorial campaign."

McCrory also went on the defensive in February when the campaign committee acknowledged it failed to report two helicopter flights in the waning days of his 2008 bid. Perdue and former Gov. Mike Easley have taken heat for dozens of flight disclosures over the past year. The Democratic Party made one of those flights the centerpiece of a news conference.

The PAC is not the only effort by McCrory to stay on the political radar screen. During his last year as mayor, McCrory was asked to speak to large crowds in person and on the air about his concerns with the federal stimulus package and President Obama's health care overhaul.

McCrory was the only speaker to get a standing ovation from more than 1,000 conservative and tea party supporters meeting last September in Raleigh to hear Obama's address on health care to a joint session of Congress. Helping social and fiscal conservative feel comfortable with McCrory could help him win over the Republican base and avoid a tough primary in 2012.

Arrington said McCrory's strategy to attempt to remain salient after his failed gubernatorial shows he's not the same guy who won a Charlotte city council seat as a relative political unknown in 1989.

"He started out in politics a very naive fellow," Arrington said. "He's learned a lot."






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Sources: McClatchy Newspapers, Public Policy Polling, WCNC, WRAL, Youtube, Google Maps

Richard Burr Is 8 Points Ahead Of Elaine Marshall: Decision 2010

Burr 48, Marshall 40



The North Carolina U.S. Senate race has tightened a bit, according to a new poll.

Democratic Senate candidate Elaine Marshall has begun to close the gap against Republican Sen. Richard Burr, who leads by eight points, according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm.

She trails 48-40, after a 13-point deficit against Burr three weeks ago.

PPP reports Marshall's standing has improved in her party. She has the support of 73 percent of Democrats, compared to 65 percent in the firm's last poll.

Burr's support remains steady at 48 percent, and he holds a 52-24 advantage with independents. If that continues, PPP suggested, it's difficult to imagine a scenario in which Marshall wins.

PPP surveyed 597 likely North Carolina voters Oct. 15-17. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.


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Sources: McClatchy Newspapers, Public Policy Polling, WRAL, Youtube, Google Maps

Democrats Losing Black Voters In 2010: Dems Reject Black Agenda

Democrats Underperformed For Black Voters: Decision 2010


One of the things giving Democratic candidates across the country trouble this year that has perhaps not gotten as much attention as it should is that they are really under polling with black voters. It's a given that black turnout is going to be way down from its 2008 levels this year but more troublesome for Democratic candidates is that they are running well behind Barack Obama's approval numbers with African Americans in almost every key race we've polled over the last six weeks.

There's a couple ways to look at that. One is that polling frequently underestimates Democratic performance with black voters further out from an election and that 90% of them will vote Democratic as they usually do. If that's the case polls right now are underestimating the party's candidates across the board and Democrats won't do as poorly in November as the current conventional wisdom. The other way to look at it is that black voters, like other voters, are less enthused with the Democrats than they are in the average election cycle and will indeed support them at a lower rate than usual.

If I had to guess I'd say Democratic candidates will end up doing a lot better with black voters than they are currently, but that the level of support they receive will not quite be at its usual lofty levels. Democratic support from African Americans may more often this year end up in the 80% plus or minus 5 points range instead of the 90% plus or minus 5 points range.

Here's the data comparing Obama's approval with blacks to the support level of Democratic Senate and Gubernatorial candidates with them in states where the black population is at least 10%:


Race:

Obama Approval w/Blacks
Democrat w/Blacks (Dropoff)

Illinois Governor
88%
Pat Quinn 41% (47)

Florida Senate
79%
Kendrick Meek 48% (31)

Texas Governor
90%
Bill White 62% (28)

Pennsylvania Governor
80%
Dan Onorato 56% (24)

North Carolina Senate
87%
Elaine Marshall 67% (20)

Florida Governor
79%
Alex Sink 60% (19)

Illinois Senate
88%
Alexi Giannoulias 69% (19)

Delaware Senate
82%
Chris Coons 63% (19)

Michigan Governor
74%
Virg Bernero 57% (17)

Pennsylvania Senate
80%
Joe Sestak 64% (16)

Ohio Senate
84%
Lee Fisher 68% (16)

Missouri Senate
78%
Robin Carnahan 67% (11)

Ohio Governor
84%
Ted Strickland 79% (5)

On average the Democratic nominees are running 21 points behind Obama's approval with black voters. Closing that gap is going to be key to winning these races or in some cases even making them competitive.







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Sources: Public Policy Polling, Wikipedia, John Locke Foundation, Youtube, Google Maps

Richard Burr Maintains Double-Digit Lead Over Elaine Marshall

Another Poll, Same Result: Richard Burr With Big Lead Over Elaine Marshall


Republican Sen. Richard Burr has a 13 point lead over Democratic challenger Elaine Marshall, according to a new survey.

Burr is leading with 49 percent followed by Marshall with 36 percent, and Libertarian candidate Michael Beitler at 4 percent, according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning firm based in Raleigh.

The poll found that Burr has solidified his support among Republicans and is doing well among independent voters. Marshall, who has not yet been able to advertise on television, is still not very well known.

The survey of 681 likely voters was taken Sept. 23-26 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.


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Sources: McClatchy Newspapers, Google Maps, Youtube

Richard Burr Maintains Tight Lead Over Cunningham & Marshall (Polls)

Richard Burr Leads Both Potential N.C. Democratic Rivals in U.S. Senate Race


First-Term Republican U.S. Sen. Richard Burr is running ahead of N.C. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and former N.C. State Sen. Cal Cunningham in North Carolina's Senate race as the attention the two Democrats received during the first round of their primary fight has begun to fade, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 4-5.

Marshall had beat Cunningham, who is the choice of National Democratic leaders to be the party's candidate, but did not get the necessary 40 percent of the vote to avoid a June 22 runoff.

Richard Burr leads Marshall by 46 percent to 39 percent with 16 percent undecided and runs ahead of Cunningham 46 percent to 35 percent with 19 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 points.

A Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted June 3, gives Burr a somewhat bigger advantage.

In that poll, Burr leads Marshall 50 percent to 36 percent with 6 percent preferring another candidate and 8 percent undecided, and he runs ahead of Cunningham 47 percent to 35 percent with 7 percent preferring someone else and 10 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points.

A week after the May 4 primary, when campaign ads were still fresh in voters' minds, the percentage of those in PPP's poll who did not know enough about the Democratic candidates to express an opinion about them was 41 percent for Marshall and 52 percent for Cunningham. In the PPP's poll, those numbers are back up to 62 percent for Marshall and 74 percent for Cunningham.

The last PPP poll, conducted May 8-10, showed Marshall and Cunningham tied. Since then, the third Democrat in the race, fundraiser and party activist Ken Lewis, endorsed Marshall. (Lewis had polled 16 percent in the primary compared to 36 percent for Marshall and 27 percent for Cunningham).

Burr's advantage appears to owe more to the weakness of the Democrats than his own popularity. Thirty-seven percent disapprove of his job performance compared to 38 percent who approve, with 28 percent undecided.

Asked to rate his performance on a scale of 1 to 9, with 9 being the highest, 43of voters percent graded him between 1 and 4, 34 percent rated him between 6 and 9, and 23 percent gave him a 5.




Richard Burr Extends Lead Over Cunningham & Marshall


Republican U.S. Sen. Richard Burr continues to hold a double-digit lead over his potential Democratic rivals, according to a new state-wide survey.

A new Rasmussen Reports survey shows Burr defeating Democrat Elaine Marshall by a 50-36 percent margin and defeating Democrat Cal Cunningham by a 47-35 percent margin, Rob Christensen reports.

Richard Burr has extended his lead from a month ago. Rasmussen found last month that Burr had a 48-40 lead over Marshall and a 50-37 percent lead over Cunningham.

The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted on June 3. The margin of error was 4.5 percentage points.

The survey also found that 59 percent of North Carolina voters favor repeal of the new health care law, while 34 percent would keep it.

The poll found that 56 percent favor state adoption of a tough immigration law like Arizona's.


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Sources: Facebook, McClatchy Newspapers, Politics Daily, Public Policy Polling, Rasmussen Reports, Google Maps

Cunningham & Marshall Tied In Dead Heat Race For Dem. Nomination (U.S. Senate Primary)

NC Runoff Election For U.S. Senate (Dem. Nomination) Knotted


Runoff elections are unpredictable and about the only thing you can expect in them is the unexpected. A week after running nine points behind Elaine Marshall in the primary, Cal Cunningham is now knotted up with her 36-36 in PPP's first poll of the runoff.

How is that possible? It's an intensity issue. Our polling before the primary found that Cunningham's supporters were more committed to him than Marshall's were to her, and that could make a big difference in what's likely to be a very low turnout runoff. More energized voters are leaning toward Cunningham.

Among respondents on this poll who reported being 'very excited' about voting this fall Cunningham led 46-31. Marshall ties it overall because of a 42-31 lead with 'somewhat excited' voters and a 28-18 one with 'not very excited' voters.

Last week's results showed that Marshall has more support than Cunningham, but whether that translates into those voters caring enough about her to come back in June is something we really won't know the answer to until the results are in.

The question for both Marshall and Cunningham is how many of the people who came out last week were drawn by the US Senate race and how many of them were drawn by a Sheriff/District Attorney/County Commissioner/other local race?

This first poll suggests that Marshall may have drawn more of her support from that latter group, and that it won't necessarily translate to those folks being there for her again next month.

There are more clear divisions along demographic lines in the runoff than we saw in the polling for the primary. Cunningham is up 43-32 with whites, while Marshall has a 44-22 advantage with African Americans.

Cunningham is up 47-37 with men, while Marshall is up 35-29 with women. Marshall's up 40-35 with liberals, Cunningham's up 38-25 with conservatives, and the candidates are tied at 37 with moderates.

With a lot of voters undecided and the unpredictable nature of determining who will vote in runoffs it's hard to say what will happen in this race. The biggest takeaway from the poll is that Cunningham is still in it.


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Sources: Public Policy Polling, Youtube, Google Maps

PPP Claims Marshall Tied With Cunningham (N.C. Poll Hype & Corruption)

Marshall & Cunningham Tied In 2010 N.C. Senate Runoff


Just a week after besting Cal Cunningham by nine points in the initial primary, Elaine Marshall is now tied with Cunningham at 36% in the runoff to face Richard Burr in November.

There is an enthusiasm gap between the two candidates’ supporters. Among the 49% who are very excited to vote in November, Cunningham leads 46-31.

Among the 38% who are somewhat excited and the 11% who are not very excited, Marshall leads 42-31 and 28-18, respectively.

Cunningham leads among the 62% of likely voters who are white, 43-32, while Marshall
leads with the 33% share of the electorate which is African American, 44-22.

Among the 41% who are aged 46-65, Cunningham leads 43-30, but Marshall leads by five or eleven points in all other age groups.

Marshall is still the most popular candidate among Democratic runoff voters, with a 49-9 favorability rating to Cunningham’s 35-14.

Despite Marshall’s argument that North Carolina voters do not want Washington
Democrats to pick their candidate for them, it seems to be a good thing to be seen as the DSCC’s choice.

Voters are split, 33 who say Cunningham and 32 Marshall, on who they think is that choice to begin with.

Among those who think it is Marshall, she has a 73% favorability rating and leads Cunningham 74-11. Among those who think the DSCC backs Cunningham, he has a 74% favorability mark and beats Marshall 82-12.

“Next month’s runoff election is likely to see even lower turnout than last week’s
primary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

“We’re finding that Cunningham’s supporters are more enthusiastic than Marshall’s, and that could allow him to close the gap from last week’s results between now and the runoff.”

PPP surveyed 445 likely Senate runoff voters from May 8th to 10th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.6%.

Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.



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Sources: Public Policy Polling, Google Maps

PPP Releases 2008 Poll Data To Sway 2010 N.C. Elections (Corruption)

Apparently PPP Thinks It’s Still 2008


Some people were shocked today by a poll released by N.C. Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling that showed Republican incumbent Senator Richard Burr ahead of Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall by only one point 43%-42%.

That result made good headlines, but it has as much basis in political reality as Ronald Reagan coming back from the dead to run for President in 2012.

Let’s look inside the numbers and methodology a minute and show just where this poll goes off course and how it’s numbers are irrelevant.

First, it is a poll of ALL registered voters.

There is no screen on the poll to determine if the respondent is even likely to vote in the 2010 election.

This method was fine in 2008 when turnout was off the charts and it appeared everyone was going to vote, but in 2010, polling all registered voters is not an accurate election prediction model.

Nobody thinks turnout is going to be anywhere near 2008 levels, why does PPP poll as if it is going to be?

By not including a likely voter screen, this biases the poll heavily toward the Democratic side as Civitas polling (and just about every other polling firm) has shown Democratic voter enthusiasm is severely depressed while Republican enthusiasm is sky high.

Second, the percentage of African-Americans in the poll is 22%.

Again, this was the turnout percentages of African-Americans in 2008, not anything close to what it is expected in 2010.

Does PPP really think all those first-time Obama voters are going to come out and vote again in 2010? Well, that’s exactly what they are hypothesizing in their poll today. (African-American turnout in 2004 was a little under 19%, 2006 was around 17%).

Since African-Americans vote 95-97% Democratic, this poll artificially inflates the overall percentage Marshall receives by roughly 3-5 points on this statistic alone.

PPP’s poll today should actually be seen as fabulous news for Richard Burr, because even under the political environment in 2008 that PPP tests, Burr is winning.

But 2010 is shaping up to be nothing like 2008 — the voter mood is completely different, Obama isn’t on the ticket and Democratic voters, especially Young and Minority, are not enthusiastic about voting.

Therefore, while this poll may have been relevant two years ago, it’s methodology does not fit the current political landscape.


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Sources: Civitas Institute, Public Policy Polling, Google Maps

Mitt Romney: Texas, NM Favors For 2012 Presidential Bid (Polls)

Mitt Romney Has Small Early Edge In Texas & New Mexico


Mitt Romney is the small early favorite for the 2012 nomination among Republican voters in both Texas and New Mexico.

In both states that advantage is small. In Texas Romney has 32% to 29% for Mike
Huckabee and 23% for Sarah Palin. In New Mexico Romney’s at 33% to 32% for Palin
and 18% for Huckabee.

In both states Romney trails by a small margin among conservatives but makes up for it with a significant advantage with moderates. In Texas Huckabee is up 32-30 with
conservatives but Romney is up 40-22 with moderates.

In New Mexico Palin is up 34-31 with conservatives but Romney has the 37-29 lead with moderates.

Interestingly in both states Palin has more support with men than women.

She gets 26% of the male vote to 21% of the female vote in Texas, and 33% of the male vote to 31% of the female vote in New Mexico.

This continues a trend in Palin’s polling numbers of hernot getting any boost with women because of her gender.

“These polls confirm that the 2012 Republican contest for President is very much up in the air,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it’s still
interesting to see Romney ahead in a couple of states that are a long way from home.”

In Texas Romney leads with Republicans unhappy with the direction of their party, while Huckabee has the edge among those who are content with the status quo.

PPP surveyed 400 Republican primary voters in Texas from February 19th to 21st and 333 Republican primary voters in New Mexico from February 18th to 20th.

The margin of error for the Texas survey is +/-4.9% and for the New Mexico survey it’s +/-5.4%.

Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.


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Sources: Public Policy Polling, Google Maps

North Carolina Voters Favor Burr Over Democrat Challengers (Polls)

North Carolina Voters Would Choose Burr Over Democrats


The tune hasn’t really changed in the last year when it comes to Richard Burr’s political status: he has mediocre approval numbers but it doesn’t stop him from leading all of his Democratic opponents by decent margins.

North Carolinians are evenly divided on Burr with 35% giving him good marks and 35%
saying they’re unhappy with his job performance.

30% continue to have no opinion one way or the other. Burr has the approval of 57% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats, and his standing with independents is identical to what it is overall at 35/35.

Burr leads Elaine Marshall 43-33, Cal Cunningham 44-32, and Kenneth Lewis 44-31.

Two common themes drive those leads for Burr- Republican voters are much more
unified than Democrats and Independents are leaning toward Burr as well.

The Democratic candidates are still suffering from low name recognition. 29% of voters have an opinion of Elaine Marshall while just 17% do of Kenneth Lewis and 14% do for Cal Cunningham.

“This race doesn’t seem like it will move much until the candidates become better
known,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s going to be really interesting to see where things stand at the beginning of May once Democrats have a nominee.”

Tested against a generic Democratic candidate Burr leads by a more narrow 42-35
margin. Even in that scenario 22% of Democrats are undecided compared to just 16% of
Republicans.

PPP surveyed 788 North Carolina voters from February 12th to 15th.

The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at
(888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.


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Sources: Public Policy Polling, Google Maps

Mike Huckabee's Approval Rating Outshines Pres. Obama's

Mike Huckabee In The Lead


A poll this far out is, naturally, not an actual electoral measure. But it tells you something about the president's standing and also, perhaps, about where exactly the space to his right lies.

Public Policy Polling:

For the first time in one of our monthly polls looking ahead to the 2012 Presidential election Barack Obama trails one of his hypothetical opponents, albeit by the smallest of margins.

Mike Huckabee has a 45-44 advantage over Obama, aided largely by a 44-38 lead with independents....Mitt Romney does the next best, trailing Obama 44-42.




2012 Presidential Poll


For the first time in one of our monthly polls looking ahead to the 2012 Presidential election Barack Obama trails one of his hypothetical opponents, albeit by the smallest of margins.

Mike Huckabee has a 45-44 advantage over Obama, aided largely by a 44-38 lead with independents. There continues to be no evidence of any negative fallout for Huckabee after murders of police officers committed by an ex-Arkansas inmate whose sentence he had commuted. His 35/29 favorability breakdown is actually slightly better than it was in November before that incident.

Mitt Romney does the next best, trailing Obama 44-42. His favorability is 36/32, and he's the most popular Republican among independents (41/32). Romney actually matches Huckabee with GOP voters this month and gets over 50%, ending a trend in his numbers that had seemed to spell difficulty for snagging a Republican nomination.

Sarah Palin trails Obama 49-41 largely because she loses 14% of the Republican vote to him, making her the only one of the GOP candidates we tested who Obama could get double digit crossover support against. At the same time Palin continues to be the most well liked potential GOP candidate within her party- at 71% favorability. Her problem appears to be that the Republicans who don't care for her will go so far as to vote for Obama instead of her.

Finally our blog readers voted for David Petraeus as our wild card Republican this month and his numbers come out as a mixed bag. He has the largest deficit against Obama, trailing 44-34. But at +13 his net favorability is better than the President or any of the other Republicans we tested. The problem for him is that the numbers break down 25/12- 63% of voters in the country don't know enough about him to have formed an opinion. Who knows if Petraeus would actually have any interest in going into politics, but if he did he would be introducing himself to many voters for the first time.

Is it a big deal that Barack Obama trails Mike Huckabee by a single point in January 2010? Not really- we're mostly doing this poll every month so that we can have the tracking data over time. But it does reflect the reality that Obama has work to do in winning back over some of the folks who voted for him in 2008.

Full results here.


Sources: Politico, Public Policy Polling

GOP Miracle Senate Win In Massachusetts? Brown's Ahead

Poll: Scott Brown Ahead Of Martha Coakley


Republicans have a very real chance at orchestrating a Massachusetts miracle in this month’s special Senate election to determine Ted Kennedy’s successor, at least according to a new Democratic poll out tonight.

The shocking poll from Public Policy Polling shows Republican state senator Scott Brown leading Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley by one point, 48 to 47 percent, which would mean the race is effectively tied.

Among independents, who make up 51 percent of the electorate in the Bay State, Brown leads Coakley 63 percent to 31 percent.

Just 50 percent of voters view Coakley favorably, while 42 percent viewing her unfavorably.

Brown, who began an advertising blitz this month, sports a strong 57 percent favorability rating, with just 25 percent viewing him unfavorably – very strong numbers for a Republican in the heavily Democratic state.

On the issue of health care, which Brown has emphasized that he would be the deciding vote against, 47 percent said they opposed the plan in Congress while 41 percent supported it.

A Rasmussen Reports survey from earlier this week had showed Coakley's lead down to 9 points, and in last night’s debate she had questioned the accuracy of those numbers, suggesting her margin of victory would in fact be larger.

The survey of 744 likely voters was conducted January 7-9 and had a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

In his analysis, pollster Tom Jensen noted that Coakley is suffering from a less-than excited Democratic electorate, a dynamic similar to the gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia that Democrats lost last year .

“The Massachusetts Senate race is shaping up as a potential disaster for Democrats,” said PPP pollster Dean Debnam.. “Martha Coakley’s complacent campaign has put Scott Brown in a surprisingly strong position and she will need to step it up in the final week to win a victory once thought inevitable.”



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Sources: Politico, Rasmussen Polls, Public Policy Policy, Youtube, Google Maps

Republicans Are Expected To Win Big In Virginia!...Dems Haven't Done Enough

(Sheila Crump Johnson, Democrat, Co-founder of Black Entertainment Television, local Middleburg Business owner, Noted philanthropist and Entrepreneur, endorsed Republican Bob McDonnell in his campaign for governor.)





Republicans headed for a Virginia sweep


Bob McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds 56-42 in PPP's final poll of the race.

In a finding that may sum up what happened here 63% of voters in the state think McDonnell made a strong case for why he should be Governor while only 34% said the same of Deeds. Even 36% of Deeds' supporters said he hadn't made a good argument for why he should be elected.

Beyond that the same themes that have shown throughout the general election show up in the last survey. 61% of McDonnell's voters are 'very excited' to vote on Tuesday while just 14% are 'not very excited.' For Deeds' supporters on the other hand 36% are 'not very excited about casting their ballots and just 31% are 'very excited.' That enthusiasm gap has existed for months now and made a Deeds comeback all but impossible.

McDonnell continues the overwhelming lead he has had with independents for the entire campaign, 63-33. He's also benefiting from greater party unity, winning 94% of the Republican vote to Deeds' 87% of the Democratic vote.

McDonnell will be bringing some folks with him. Bill Bolling leads 54-41 for Lieutenant Governor and Ken Cuccinelli has a 55-39 advantage for Attorney General. Republicans also have a 48-39 lead on the generic House of Delegates ballot.

Voters in the state seem to know what's coming. 64% say they think McDonnell will win to only 24% who believe Deeds will pull it out.

It's likely to be a quick election night in Virginia Tuesday.



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Sources: Public Policy Polling, Wikipedia, Youtube, Google Maps

Lassiter = Key Difference Charlotte Needs; Foxx = Status Quo, Taxing Politician...Get Out & Vote!

(Media folks assume most people know At-Large Charlotte City Council members/ 2009 Mayoral Candidates John Lassiter (Republican) and Anthony Foxx (Democrat). Experts say that's not the case at all.)







There are quite a few "Key" differences between the 2009 Charlotte Mayoral Candidates John Lassiter (Rep.) and Anthony Foxx (Dem):


1. JOBS and Understanding Business:

Lassiter = Is a Business Owner whose company helps individuals find jobs - he knows what businesses wants and where there is growth. He understands how to run and manage a business which is what government is (a business of providing services to the community). He knows how to make business decisions where his money is at risk.

Foxx = A part time Lawyer who has never run a business but volunteers for government programs where his money is not put at risk.


2. Police / Community Safety:

Foxx = Has voted for every request for police and jails that has come before council and has state he would support every request as mayor as well.

Lassiter = Acknowledges the need to address the community safety and the legal system to improve efficiency and not just continue arresting and re-arresting the same people. Coupling the appropriate mission for the police with the legal system

Author: Charlotte Observer Reader Comment - Dschonder



Lassiter getting a bounce from McCrory's coattails: Excellent!!

A new poll shows Republican John Lassiter is being helped in his bid for mayor against Democrat Anthony Foxx by current Mayor Pat McCrory's popularity across party lines.

Here is the take from Tom Jensen, an analyst with Public Policy Polling in Raleigh:

Charlotte's a Democratic city but John Lassiter is hanging in there and one person he really owes for that is Pat McCrory.
Last year George W. Bush was an anchor on Republican candidates across the country as he left office but McCrory's continuing popularity seems to be helping Lassiter secure the crossover support from Democrats and independents that he needs to be competitive. McCrory's approval rating is 60%. For the occasional grumbling from the right over the years he has the support of 85% of Republicans. His 69% approval with independents is one of the best we've measured for any politician in the country this year and even Democrats are pretty evenly divided with 37% giving him good marks to 44% disapproving.
Let's put Lassiter's Democratic support in perspective- only 14% are voting for him but that's still a lot better than the 6% of Republicans Foxx is getting. 80% of the Democrats who support Lassiter approve of the job McCrory's doing. That speaks to the fact that McCrory has shown a moderate Republican can be a reasonable Mayor, even across party lines, and there is at least some segment of the Democratic electorate that's content to keep on that way.
79% of the independents who think McCrory's doing a good job are voting for Lassiter. Only 42% of the rest are. It's safe to say Lassiter's 20 point lead with that group would be considerably more narrow if not for McCrory's popularity with them.
Let me put it simply: if Pat McCrory's approval rating was only 50%, still well above average for politicians these days and particularly in North Carolina, this race would be over. The only question would be Foxx's winning margin. But with him at 60%, this contest is a dog fight. In this tossup there's not much doubt Pat McCrory is John Lassiter's best friend.

This analysis is also available on PPP's blog.



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Sources: McClatchy Newspapers, Charlotte Observer, Public Policy Polling, Charlotte Magazine, Google Maps