"Repeal & Replace", "Fire Nancy Pelosi!" Paul Ryan & Michael Steele Team Up

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Paul Ryan Will Push "Repeal and Replace"


Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), one of his party’s top voices on fiscal matters, calls the newly passed health reform plan a “fiscal Frankenstein” that will “make insurance more expensive,” providing an opening for the GOP to push for a partial repeal.

Ryan, the top Republican on the House budget committee, said the plan will help “a very small segment of the population,” such as people with pre-existing conditions, but make life more expensive for “the vast majority of the population.”

“What matters to people is: Are their premiums going up or are their premiums going down?” Ryan said in an interview as his Capitol Hill office for the POLITICO video series, “Health Care Diagnosis.”

Ryan, who calls himself “a numbers guy” and resists talking about political strategy, said he’ll be pushing for what he calls a “repeal and replace” approach to rolling back the law Obama signed on Tuesday.

“You’re going to see sticker shock,” Ryan said. “You’re going to see lots of premium increases. You’re going to see people in the individual market losing their premiums, losing their insurance. … All brokers of insurance are gone in a year, in my personal opinion.”

“Obviously we’re not for keeping this law,” he continued. “We should repeal it and replace it with reform … but not just to go back to the status quo that we knew yesterday. That wasn’t sustainable, either. We’ve been saying all along we want to fix what’s broken in healthcare without breaking what’s working in healthcare. So repeal and replace it with something better.”

Asked if Republicans had overplayed their hands with dire claims about the plan, Ryan replied: “The problem I see with this bill is: Is this bill socialized medicine today? No, but it think it clearly puts us on the trajectory for that. ... So what I’m worried about is in our nation, we’re reaching a tipping point in this country where more Americans are more worried about their government benefits and dependencies than they are about their own securities. … They’re more relying on the government for their livelihoods than they do on themselves.”

Ryan said he’s begun laying the groundwork for his role as one of his party’s appointees to President Barak Obama’s newly formed deficit-reduction panel, the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform.

“I’m mailing them my entitlements plan,” he said. “We’re sending them some things that we’ve already written, … just so you know who I am and what I’ve been saying, to be very candid. Anybody who knows anything about me knows I’m not a tax increaser . . . . spending, in my opinion, is the problem.”



Ryan acknowledged speculation that the commission was designed to provide cover for recommendations for tax increases, but he said he’s willing to wait until the group gets going because deciding what he thinks of it.

“I want to get something done, I want to be constructive, I want to approach it with a good attitude,” he said. “If this thing, this commission can help us get spending under control, I want to help, and that’s what I’m going to be offering.”

Last month, Ryan introduced a “2.0” version of his “Roadmap for America’s Future,” which includes proposals for health care, retirement savings, job training, and tax and budget reform. The plan made Ryan a convenient target for Democrats, who claim it’s a sugarcoated attempt to partially privatize Social Security and Medicare.

“President Obama kind of elevated it and then [Budget Director Peter] Orszag came after it and the DCCC and the DNC , so now I’m sort of the punching bag,” he said. “I’m OK with that. I’m actually very, very much at peace with it because what the Democrats … are trying to do is win this next election by tearing down Republicans and making us seem worse than they are.

“They don’t want an election as a referendum on their performance; they want an election based on fear and if they can disperse fear into the mind of a voter about Republicans, they can stay in power. So what’s comforting to me: In order for them to attack my plan, they have to completely demagogue it -- meaning mischaracterize it -- and that’s good, in my mind. … [I]t tells me that I put up a viable alternative to the social welfare state they want to create for America.”

Ryan said the “new media economy” makes it easier for a minority party to promote its alternative ideas. “You have a [presidential] bully pulpit that heretofore could kind of concentrate and control the media,” he explained. “This bully pulpit it not as singularly effective, because of all the new media that’s out there.

“So when I get demagogued by the president and the Democrats, … I have avenues where I can get the truth out about this plan. The point I’m trying to make is when people find the facts, they know there’s something wrong, they know debt’s getting out of control and they know we’ve got to do something to fix it.”

“I don’t care if I lose this job for trying to do what I think is right,” he added. “The way I look at this is: Every term you should act like it’s your last term. And what matters to me is that you sleep well at night.”

The congressman paused and grimaced. “OK,” he said. “Last night I didn’t sleep very well because of this health-care bill.”

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10 Reasons To Fire Nancy Pelosi


1.) Pelosi Called Opponents Of Government-Run Health Care Experiment "Un-American." (Speaker Nancy Pelosi & Rep. Steny Hoyer, "'Un-American' Attacks Can't Derail Health Care Debate," USA Today, 8/10/09)


2.) Last Night, Pelosi Once Again Ignored The Will Of The American People And Voted Again To Pass Their Government-Run Health Care Experiment. (H.R. 3590, Roll Call Vote #165, Approved 219-212; D 219-34; R 0-178, 3/21/10)


3.) Yesterday's Vote Came Just Four Months After Pelosi Rammed Through $1.2 Trillion Health Care Bill On A Saturday Night. (H.R. 3962, Roll Call Vote #887; Approved 220-215; D 219-39; R 1-176, 11/7/09)


4.) Leading Up To The Vote, Pelosi Made Clear Once Dems "Kick Open That Door ... There Will Be Other Legislation To Follow ... We'll Take The Country In A New Direction." (Greg Sargent, "Pelosi: Passing Health Reform Will Set Stage For Great Debate With GOP," The Plum Line, 3/15/10)


5.) Pelosi Claims To Be Unaware Of The Behavior Of Disgraced Former Rep. Eric Massa, And Continued To Defend Rep. Charlie Rangel Despite Ethics Committee Admonishment. (James Hohmann, "Nancy Pelosi Defends Charlie Rangel, Again," Politico, 2/26/10; MSNBC's "The Rachel Maddow Show," 3/11/10)



6.) In June, Pelosi "Laid Down The Gauntlet" To Rush Through Cap And Trade National Energy Tax. (Steven T. Dennis and Tory Newmyer, "Pelosi Flexes Muscle," Roll Call, 6/24/09; H.R. 2454, Roll Call Vote #477; Approved 219-212; D 211-44; R 8-168, 6/26/09)


7.) In February Of Last Year, Pelosi Passed President Obama's $862 Billion Stimulus, Promising To Create Jobs; Yet Since Then, America Has Lost 3.3 Million Jobs. (H.R. 1, Roll Call Vote #70: Passed 246-183; R 0-176; D 246-7, 2/13/09; U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics, www.bls.gov, Accessed 3/5/10)


8.) Pelosi Has Failed To Run House In Spirit Of Bi-Partisanship, With Democratic Members Being "Explicitly Told Not To Work With Republicans." (Rep. Jim Cooper, "Reconciliation Rules - Not Bipartisanship - Will Kill Health Care Reform," The Huffington Post, 6/18/09)


9.) Despite Pelosi Promising "The Most Open And Honest Government In History," Even Dem Member Admits "Caucus Is A Real Disappointment" Because They "Aren't Transparent." (Rep. Nancy Pelosi, "Pelosi: 'We Will Create the Most Open and Honest Government in History'" Press Re lease, 1/18/06; Glenn Thrush, "Sestak Blasts Pelosi, Obama On Transparency," Politico, 1/7/10)


10.) Pelosi Accused The CIA Of Lying To Her And To Congress On Use Of Interrogation Techniques. (David Espo, "Pelosi on CIA: 'They Mislead Us All the Time,'" The Associated Press, 5/14/09)









Obamacare: Time To "Fire Pelosi"


This weekend, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ensured that the 111th Congress will live in infamy. Instead of listening to the people she used every procedural trick at her disposal to pass her health care legislation. She must be stopped.

Over the last year, the American people have witnessed a Speaker who will stop at nothing to achieve her vision of a Leftist government. She believes that she is no longer accountable to congressional rules, and national laws. Those are just guidelines that can be tossed away on a whim if determined they will prevent her from accomplishing her goals.

On Sunday, she cast them aside with reckless abandon and forced through her government takeover of health care.

Nancy Pelosi has no regard for public opinion. Even in a hostile electoral environment, she asked members of her caucus to fall on their swords so that she might add another achievement to her increasingly shameful legacy. Her actions are deceptive, dishonest, and simply unconstitutional, but she shows no remorse. To her, the ends justify the means.

Let there be no doubt: Nancy Pelosi’s sole priority in this entire health care drama has been authorizing a government seizure of the American health care industry and nationalizing a full one-sixth of our economy. She ignored the cold hard facts of the federal budget. Plainly put, you cannot add $1 trillion dollars to the budget and then claim that it’s revenue neutral, cut $500 billion from Medicare, and won’t affect recipients.

The math simply doesn’t work. But Nancy Pelosi doesn’t seem to have any problem with fudging the numbers when it’s to her advantage.

Worse yet, Speaker Pelosi has claimed that she would preside over the most ethical and transparent Congress in history. She has repeatedly denied Americans their Constitutional right to know what Washington is doing in their name, because she knows that if they find out, they will hold her caucus accountable.

For the sweetheart deals and arm-twisting tactics; for this unconscionable dereliction of her duty; for this gleeful defiance of the Constitution; and for the utter contempt with which she has repeatedly treated the American people, Speaker Pelosi MUST be fired.

The time has come for Americans to speak out. If you believe that American government should be open, honest, and transparent; if you believe that individual Americans, not the federal government, are best equipped to make their own medical decisions; if you believe that the Constitution of the United States – not this radical leftist agenda – is still the ultimate authority in our land, I am asking for your help to fire Nancy Pelosi.

I am asking you to pledge your support to punish her and every Democrat who joined her in this abomination and help Republicans regain the majority in the House.

The voice of the people was ignored on health care, but with your help we will make sure they hear it loud and clear when we remove Speaker Pelosi from her throne this November.


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Sources: Politico, RNC, SWAC Girl, Big Government.com, Youtube, Google Maps

GOP Leaders Vow To Repeal Obama's Health Care "Reform" Law

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Sources: MSNBC, Fox News, Youtube

Scott Brown & John McCain In Arizona (Decision 2010)

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Brown Stumps For McCain In Grand Canyon State


US Senator Scott Brown, driving past palm trees and American flags, brought his political star power to Arizona today to stump for the 2008 GOP standard-bearer, John McCain.

Brown received several standing ovations and loud applause from a group of Republicans who hailed his surprise victory in Massachusetts. Brown mostly shrugged and smiled.

“I’m honored to be in Antelope Country!” Brown told a crowd of about 1,500 at the Grand Canyon University gymnasium. “Wow. This is great. If you told me five months ago I would be standing here, I would have never believed you.”

McCain is locked in one of his toughest reelection fights of his career, and was hoping Brown could bolster his conservative credentials. McCain’s chief opponent in the Republican primary, former congressman and talk radio personality J.D. Hayworth, has been criticizing McCain as too liberal for Arizona.

Both Brown and McCain railed against President Obama’s health care plan, and the possibility that Congressional Democrats will attempt to pass it through a reconciliation budget process.

“Scott and I just returned form trying to do the Lord’s work in the house of Satan,” McCain told the crowd. McCain called the plan “Chicago-style sausage making,” and said, “We’re going to fight, and fight, and fight.” Brown accused the Democrats of engaging in “political chicanery and parliamentary maneuvers.”

“It’s going to affect the way we get health care, no only in my home state, but across the country,” Brown said.

Afterward, a crush of people approached the freshman Massachusetts senator, taking photos with cell phones and asking him to autograph their McCain stickers. One man presented him with a baseball, and Brown took out a sharpie and signed his signature along with #41, to represent his vote in the US Senate.

“Bless you!” one woman yelled to him.

“Save us, senator,” another said to him quietly. “Save us.”

“I didn’t know until I showed up that Scott Brown was going to be here,” said Mark Doebele, a 33-year-old high school teacher from Phoenix. “I was like, ‘Holy cow. Scott Brown’s here?’ Don’t tell Senator McCain this, but that was almost more exciting.”

McCain was the first US senator to take Brown’s calls when he was a long-shot candidate running for the seat left vacant by the death of liberal lion Edward M. Kennedy. Brown has since called McCain his political role model.

“He brings star power. Kinda like Sarah Palin does, you know?” McCain said in an interview. “He’s a national figure. People react to him in the most positive way…He comes in a position of significant influence, in our party and in the senate.”

McCain introduced Brown, who was wearing a shirt and tie but no jacket, as “one of the great political heroes in political history.”

One side of the audience almost immediately rose to their feet and Brown said, “Oh, sit, sit. Please. Really.” He then looked to the other side and asked why they hadn’t stood, too (at the end, the entire gym rose to their feet).

Brown and McCain flew out to Arizona this morning for the campaign rally and will go to a cocktail fundraiser tonight at a former McCain aide’s home. He and McCain are planning to go to Tucson tomorrow, where they will attend a University of Arizona Wildcats basketball game.

Brown, though, is missing several basketball games of his daughter, Ayla, who plays for Boston College and is in the ACC tournament in Greensboro, N.C.

“When I scheduled it, I scheduled it obviously not knowing when the ACC tournament was,” Brown said in an interview. “I’d love to be there but I get the tweets and the texts. Spoke to her this morning, gave her a pep talk. She understands I have a new role.”

Arizona residents talked of staying up on election night in Massachusetts, not going to sleep until they knew the results. Now, they simply wanted to lay eyes on the man who changed their party.

“I made sure my schedule was free,” said Pete Leonard, a 34-year-old from Phoenix. “Having seen [the election], and followed it, I wanted to see this guy and see what the hype is about. I just want to be part of the action.”

“I think we all understand political gratitude,” Hayworth said in an interview when asked about Brown coming to campaign for McCain. “I look forward to working with Scott in the United States Senate, and I’m glad he’s getting a nice trip to Arizona. We’re going to have beautiful weather for him.”


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Sources: MSNBC, Boston Globe, Google Maps

Mitt Romney Slams Obama's Anti-American Foreign Policy, "Stop Apologizing!"

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Mitt Romney: President Obama Fuels Anti-Americanism


In his new book, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney accuses President Barack Obama of providing “kindling” to the “anti-American fires burning all across the globe.”

The book “No Apology: The Case for American Greatness” hit shelves Tuesday, and in it Romney focuses much of his time attacking Obama’s foreign policy.

“Never before in American history has its president gone before so many foreign audiences to apologize for so many American misdeeds, both real and imagined,” Romney writes of Obama’s overseas trips. “It is his way of signaling to foreign countries and foreign leaders that their dislike for America is something he understands and that is, at least in part, understandable.”

“There are anti-American fires burning all across the globe; President Obama’s words are like kindling to them,” the former GOP presidential candidate adds.

Romney goes on to urge Obama to show a stronger commitment to U.S. allies, especially Israel, and speak more about “America’s values” rather than “America’s failings.”

While Romney offers plenty of criticism of the president’s approach abroad, he doesn’t provide much insight into his own run for president or on the two years since he dropped out of the race. There are few criticisms of his fellow Republicans and he offers little detail mapping his course forward.

Instead, Romney is focused on the American mood and how the country can regain its swagger.

“Whenever the world faces potentially insurmountable threats, military or otherwise, it turns to America,” Romney writes. “Yet with all that we have done to help others, and with so much more that remains to be done, our popularity and persuasive sway are on the wane.”

“The self-loathing of Western intellectuals should not hinder our sturdy defense of all that should make us the most admired and respected of nations,” he continues. “We must argue our case, leading others to eagerly join us in the case of liberty and peace.”

Romney blames an American culture that he sees as too eager to accept American failings and too weary of celebrating triumphs.

“The time has come for American schools to once again systematically teach our children about the heroes of the battles that won our freedom and about the heroes that fought in the wars that gained liberty for millions of people around the world,” he writes. “The multiculturalism movement must be unmasked for the fraud that it is. There are superior cultures, and ours is one of them.”

But in touting American culture, Romney allows that the U.S. has some major shortcomings of its own such as not placing enough value on the family, specifically by condoning out-of-wedlock births.

“Given the dire consequences for the nation and the heart-wrenching implications for children, why has no alarm been sounded and no emergency measures enacted to staunch this grave crisis?” Romney asks. “To reclaim marriage and family, we must begin by telling children and young adults the truth. Strong voices of concern and redirection must come from the president, governors, legislators, community leaders, pastors and teachers.”

Romney also blames the American education system—which he refers to as an “epic failure”—for allowing societal decline, as well as the decision by “progressives” to de-emphasize “the subjects that had previously been considered essential.”

“The consequences of a failing education system reach to the foundation of our democracy,” he writes. “If our children do not learn about and come to cherish America’s heritage, history, culture and founding principles, how can they be expected to defend the freedoms on which their country is based?”


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Sources: MSNBC, Morning Joe, Politico, Examiner, Google Maps

GOP's 2010 Campaign Strategy: Follow Bob McDonnell & Scott

GOP's 2010 Campaign Strategy: Follow Bob McDonnell


Republicans would be wise look to Gov. Bob McDonnell's recent victory in the Virgina gubernatorial race as a model for 2010 Senate and House campaigns.

McDonnell, a demonstrated social conservative, shied away from emphasizing social issues on the stump and instead focused on tangible problems facing Virginians. He campaigned on transportation, jobs, fiscal restraint and stemming the tide of a frivolous litigation presently hampering businesses.

His messages resonated with Virginia voters, who had not elected a Republican governor in 12years, recently sent two Democratic senators to Washington, and handed Barack Obama the once solid red state in 2008. McDonnell's victory decisively reversed that trend.

To be fair, McDonnell benefited from a weak general campaign opponent who never fully drew the support of the Virginia Democratic base. Nonetheless, biting his tongue on abortion, gay marriage and other hot button social issues (on which I'm sure he was more than willing to speak) netted him the support of independents and moderate conservatives who either stayed home or voted for Obama in 2008. Social and "movement" conservatives, apparently adequately convinced that McDonnell was "one of them", overlooked his unwillingness to preach their gospel on the campaign trail.

In a GOP that the mainstream media loves to portray as "intensely divided", we would do well to follow the McDonnell model when approaching upcoming elections. For the first time in a long while, Republicans of all stripes appear united in their dislike for President Obama's fiscal, regulatory, health care proposals and environmental policies. Focusing on the issues, and not on religious or social warfare, as Gov. McDonnell did, is the most likely pathway to success for Republicans in 2010.

Cameron Lynch: Republican Strategist and President The Lynch Group, LLC


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Sources: Politico, The Arena, Google Maps

Mitt Romney Gets Fired Up At 2010 CPAC! Scott Brown Introduces

Mitt Romney's New Groove Debuts At CPAC


Meet the new Mitt, same as the old Mitt. The first of the 2012 presidential contenders to speak at CPAC, Mitt Romney just finished a fiery, sound bitey, (red) meaty stump speech that should erase the remaining doubts from anyone's mind that he's running for president in two years.

Romney got a huge ovation when he took the stage this afternoon. That's no surprise -- Romney "gets" CPAC, having won the vaunted presidential straw poll at the conference three times in a row. The crowd welcomed Romney, and he made it clear he was happy to see them, too.

"It's good to be back with you," he said to cheers. "I love to be back at CPAC."

Romney then launched into a speech that would be at home on the stump in Iowa or New Hampsire (and probably will be). Just before he took the stage, Democratic pollster PPP released a new poll showing Romney within two points of President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Obama led Romney in the poll 45-43.

Romney seemed ready to take on Obama, addressing the crowd like he was already the GOP nominee.

"President Obama instituted the most anti-growth, anti-investment, anti-jobs measures we've seen in our lifetimes," he said. "He called his agenda ambitious. I call it reckless."

To contrast himself with the "big government" Obama, Romney took the tack we've seen in the past, embracing his past in corporate America as evidence that he can turn thing around in America faster and better than Obama. Romney compared corporate titans like Sam Walton, Steve Jobs and even Richard Branson to the founding fathers, claiming each had put his mark on the company he founded, as the founders of the United States did in early America.

"People shape businesses," he said. "People shape countries. America reflects the values of the people who first landed here, those who founded the nation, those who won our freedom, and those who made America the leader of the world."

Most of what he had to say was pure conservative red meat -- calls for strong national security, lower taxes and "fiscal responsibility." But Romney also mentioned Obama's swipes at the Supreme Court in his State of the Union address, a moment that may have put him at odds with his audience.

"The President found it inexplicable that the first amendment right of free speech should be guaranteed not just to labor union corporations and media corporations, but equally to all corporations, big and small," Romney said. "When it was all over, I think most Americans felt as I did: his noisy critique and bombast did not register as clear and convincingly as Justice Alito's silent lips forming these words: 'Not true!'"

But polls show that most Americans -- especially independents -- actually agree with Obama's take on the Citizens United ruling instead of Romney's take. The moment provided an interesting insight into the struggles politicians like Romney have at CPAC this year. On the one hand, he has to reach out to the classic main line conservative base that CPAC has hosted for years -- the businesspeople and social conservatives that have been the core of this gathering for years. On the other, Romney has to be careful not to raise the hackles of the Tea Partiers, most of whom proclaim themselves to be independent and are quick to attack establishment Republicans who don't pay attention.

Overall, though, Romney's speech was the kind of sound bite-heavy address we're all likely to hear a lot more of come late 2011. It's time to get ready, Romney seemed to say to his CPAC base, campaign 2012 starts now.


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Sources: CPAC, TPM, Youtube, Google Maps

Liz & Dick Cheney At CPAC: "Obama Is A One-Term President" (Videos)

Dick Cheney Surprises CPAC; Liz Cheney Attacks Obama's Terrorism Policies


Former Vice President Dick Cheney made a surprise appearance Thursday at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) to pay homage to the movement and declare that Barack Obama will be a “one-term president.”

Cheney came up on stage after a speech by his daughter Liz, who hammered Obama’s policies on terrorism and laid blame on administration officials for the attempted Christmas Day bombing.

The room exploded with excitement for the former vice president, who was greeted with cheers of “run, Dick, run!”

“A welcome like that is almost enough to make me want to run for office again — but I’m not gonna do it,” he said.

Cheney made clear that he has passed the torch to his daughter, of whom he said he is “enormously proud.”

“She said I could come with her, but that I had to be arm candy,” the former vice president joked.

Cheney said that he is excited for the opportunities this November’s elections present for conservatives, especially for the younger generation to step up and take control of the movement.

“The sky is the limit here. I think 2010 will be a phenomenal year. And I think Barack Obama is a one-term president,” he said.

“The highlights of my years in public office have been my opportunities to come to CPAC,” Cheney said to the conference attendees. “Let me thank you for all the energy and time and effort you’ve dedicated to our common cause.”

“It’s a remarkable time to be an American and a remarkable time to be a conservative,” he concluded. “Good luck.”

Sources: Politico, Right Scoop

Democrats' Weak Leadership Turn Blue States Red

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Dems' Blues: States Reverting To Red


The electoral map candidate Barack Obama remade in 2008 appears to be retreating into its familiar patterns.

Obama broke the decisive role Ohio and Florida seemed to play in presidential elections, by moving from trench warfare engagement in the two states to a broader battlefield on which Republicans were placed on the defensive in states they'd once taken for granted. And his victories in places where Democrats had fared poorly in recent elections — Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, the interior West —seemed to validate his strategists' claims that he had consigned the red state-blue state presidential dichotomy to the bookstore remainders bin.

But now some of the same unlikely states that Obama put in his party's column 15 months ago feature Senate, House and governor's races with Democratic candidates in grave danger of losing in what is quickly shaping up to be a toxic election cycle.

While off-year and down-ballot elections are inherently different than presidential contests, the rapid reversal in Democratic fortunes in the very places where Obama's success brought so much attention suggests that predictions of a lasting realignment were premature.

And it's raising the question of whether the president's 2008 win was the result of a unique set of circumstances that will be difficult for him to replicate again and perhaps downright impossible for other Democrats on the ballot to reprise.

"They had wind at their back," said former Rep. Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican and a student of national politics, of Obama's historic victory. "People were hungry for change and the president was running against a 72-year-old guy who couldn't use a computer."

But, Davis added: "One election doesn't make realignment."

At the very least, it seems that Obama's success proved that those conservative-leaning states must be viewed as highly competitive for both parties—a departure from an electoral past in which they were assumed to be GOP locks.

"They were red but they're competitive now," said Democratic National Committee Chairman and former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine.

In Indiana and Virginia, perhaps Obama's most sought-after prizes and two states that had not supported a Democratic presidential nominee since 1964, Republicans are taking aim at a number of junior House Democrats who were either elected or re-elected for the first time in part by riding the Obama wave. Already in Virginia, the GOP swept the three statewide offices last November. And in Indiana, the stunning retirement of well-funded Sen. Evan Bayh has forced Democrats to scramble to find a replacement candidate.

Kaine didn't bother masking his disappointment in Bayh's decision, something that has infuriated top Democrats.

"We weren't happy to hear it," he said. And while the party chairman said he was confident they could find a top-tier Democrat to run for the seat, he allowed that, "The best chance we would've had to win that seat was if Sen. Bayh was running for a third term."

Other Democrats close to Obama say that 2008 did not represent a realignment but nor was it a one-off, where Democrats flourished because of a perfect political storm.

"These states are now competitive but will tilt one way or another depending on the climate," said Anita Dunn, a Democratic strategist and the president's former communications director. "Now that doesn't mean that we can't elect a Democratic senator in Indiana but it's going to be tough."

Dunn, though, did make the case that their task would be made easier if former Sen. Dan Coats gets the nomination, noting his lobbyist background and out-of-state residence.

In Virginia, where as many as five House Democrats could face difficult races in November, Kaine noted that the political tectonic plates had been moving toward the Democrats in recent years and described Obama's success there as the capstone of the state's shift.

But he quickly added that the lesson was not that it had suddenly become a Democratic stronghold.

"It's that neither party is going to take Virginia for granted for the next 25 years," Kaine said. "These other states are in a similar spot."

In North Carolina, which hadn't gone for a Democratic president since 1976, hopes that first-term Republican Sen. Richard Burr could be defeated have waned and Gov. Bev Perdue and Sen. Kay Hagan, two Democrats elected on Obama's coattails, have approval ratings hovering around 30 percent.

"There aren't many Obamas," said Gary Pearce, a longtime Tar Heel State Democratic consultant. "He's not on the ballot and I don't know that [his appeal] transmits. He created an energy and enthusiasm that's really rare in politics."

In Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina, Democrats fret that the absence of Obama on the ticket will ensure that fewer young and African-American voters will come to the polls--that the very "surge voters" that propelled the president could ensure defeat for the party by staying home this fall.

"Obama is still fairly strong here--a lot better than anybody else in public life," added Pearce. "What's changed is the Democrats are in charge now and they're getting blamed for the economy being bad."

Democrats may have been the most optimistic about the political shift in the Mountain West, where demographics--a rising Hispanic population and a flood of California transplants--had pushed voters away from the GOP.

But Democrats' 2008 gains are now under siege, and the region is a central battleground this year, from the Senate seat of the embattled Majority Leader, Harry Reid, on down. Three of the most vulnerable House freshmen Democrats are Nevada's Dina Titus, New Mexico's Harry Teague, and Colorado's Betsy Markey. Democrats are at risk of losing both the Senate and governor's races in Nevada and Colorado, the latter of which was ground zero for the Rocky Mountain realignment, and a state that Obama had effectively locked up with a massive early voting turnout effort.

"I don't think it was ever a massive shift - I think it was an anomaly that came in good part because of the extraordinary financial effort that went into the voter registration," said Sig Rogich, a Republican consultant and veteran observer of Nevada politics who supports Reid.

A dismal economy in Nevada, in particular, which ranks at the top of the nation in home foreclosures and is second in unemployment, has slowed the demographic trend--immigration--behind the Democratic rise.

"We've lost a good number of those who helped to change the numbers--with the job losses and so forth," Rogich said.

The economy has also left local voters, perhaps even more deeply than elsewhere in the country, angry and eager for change.

"Even if you have a job you're worried about it. Almost everybody knows either family or friends who have lost their jobs and same with people who have lost homes," said D. Taylor, the president of the Culinary Workers Union, which represents casino workers and backed Obama to the hilt in 2008. "It's general angst about no quick answers which we as Americans aren't used to."

And out West, the same cultural libertarianism and suspicion of authority that helped push big-spending and moralistic Republicans from office is now rebounding against Democrats. The unaffiliated voters who have taken flight from the Democratic Party in the three recent statewide races across the nation are an even larger force in the electorates of states like Colorado.

"The argument that Obama moves too fast, too much, too expensive has been very effective here," said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver-based pollster.

The extent of Republican resurgence in the West won't be clear, however, until November, and Democrats are still competitive in races ranging from Reid's Senate seat to the open contest for the Colorado governorship, for which their candidate is the popular Denver mayor, John Hickenlooper.

And there are Democratic bright spots that suggest, Colorado political consultant Mike Stratton said, that the West could resist a national wave. New Mexico Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish is a strong candidate for the governorship. Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons, a Republican, is campaigning for re-election despite profound unpopularity and stiff primary opposition.

Democrats continue to put stock in voter registration numbers that, they hope, Obama changed for good.

"When you look at Washoe County, I don think that's ever going to go back to being Republican," said state Assemblyman Richard Segerblom, a Democrat, referring to the conservative-leaning population center of northern Nevada. "That was Republican for all our lives."

To get those voters out this year, however, will be a challenge, party strategists acknowledge.

"Democrats who are running in 2010 need to give all those new voters a reason to turn out for them, they need to feel like there is something really at stake," said Dunn. "Be clear about what you're doing and why you're doing it and who you're fighting for."

Kaine pointed out, hopefully, that, "Nine months is a long time on politics. If the economy continues to improve, and we've seen signs it is, and we have action on healthcare, the dynamic is not going to be easy but we can do quite well."


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Sources: Politico, MSNBC, Google Maps

Dems Are Finished! Obama's In Denial; GOP Smells Blood!

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Five Ways For Dems To Lose The U.S. Senate Majority


Sen. Evan Bayh's stunning decision Monday to pass on a reelection campaign in Indiana is the latest blow to a Senate Democratic majority that is suddenly within striking distance for the GOP.

While the retirements of Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) and Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) had a clear political logic to them — both involved vulnerable Incumbents badly trailing their prospective opponents, according to publicly released polling — Bayh’s calculus was less obvious since he had a comfortable double-digit cushion and a nearly $13 million head start.

Either way, the two-term senator’s departure now places 10 Democratic-held Senate seats at risk. If all are swept under by a November GOP wave, Republicans are back in control of the Senate.

The lesson of the tumultuous past 45 days is that the contours of the political landscape can change in an instant — and a death, a retirement or a top candidate’s decision not to run can wreak havoc on the best laid political plans.

With that in mind, here’s a list of five developments that would make the Democratic hold on the Senate even more tenuous:

The situation in Arkansas continues to deteriorate

By most measures, Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln is checking all the boxes as she gears up to run for a third term. She’s made staffing additions to the campaign squad, boasts a healthy $5 million war chest, and a spokeswoman reports the senator is planning a headquarters grand opening on the same day she files for reelection in two weeks.

While Lincoln’s office dismisses speculation that she will be the next incumbent to drop, Bayh’s unexpected bombshell is a reminder that the act of gearing up for a campaign doesn’t necessarily guarantee an incumbent will run again.

Unlike in Bayh’s case, however, it’s not entirely clear whether Lincoln’s retirement would help or hinder the cause. Her standing in the polls seems near terminal: a recent Public Policy Polling survey had her trailing Republican Rep. John Boozman by a jaw-dropping 23 points. Other automated polls have shown her trailing lesser-known GOP foes.

In Connecticut, Democrats vastly improved their chances in November when Dodd decided not to seek reelection and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal stepped into his shoes. Blumenthal now holds commanding leads over the same Republicans who were shown to be trouncing Dodd.

There is a potential Arkansas Democratic candidate with statewide elected experience who could fit the bill: Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. But Halter is no Blumenthal — the outside-the-state progressive forces that are already clamoring for Halter to challenge Lincoln in a primary may not be an asset to him in a general election in conservative-minded Arkansas.


Romanoff roughs up Bennet in Colorado

Appointed Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet's allies argue that his Democratic primary opponent, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, doesn't have the financial wherewithal to become a serious threat in the primary.

But Romanoff's keen political antennae, coupled with Bennet's inexperience on the campaign trail, could produce a messy August primary that leaves little time for the party to reunite behind the victor.

Romanoff has cannily framed himself as "an outsider," while at the same time racking up endorsements from dozens of state lawmakers and labor groups. And Bennet's soft polling numbers are also allowing Romanoff to claim the electability card.

"Despite being outspent 10-to-1, I do as well against any of the Republicans," Romanoff told POLITICO last week, citing an early February Rasmussen Reports poll that put him just 7 points behind Republican front-runner Jane Norton.

While Bennet, who carries President Barack Obama’s backing, would have to be labeled the primary front-runner, Democrats can already envision a nightmarish set of circumstances where Bennet gets bloodied by Romanoff and staggers into the fall homestretch against the GOP nominee.

Colorado’s precinct caucuses, which begin next month, are already fertile ground for Romanoff, a favorite of progressives who tend to turn out for such an activist-oriented event. A worst-case scenario for the Democratic establishment: Romanoff edges out Bennet at the Colorado Democratic State Assembly in May.

But whether Romanoff accomplishes that, or easily surpasses the 30 percent necessary to qualify for the August ballot, it could be just the momentum his campaign needs to fight Bennet through the summer.


A Gillibrand challenge jells in New York

Democrat Harold Ford Jr. is the latest in a parade of prospective candidates to float their interest in challenging appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York.

If he ends up passing on a run for the U.S. Senate in New York, it will go down as just another Big Apple political sideshow — and a welcome break for Democrats who desperately want to put an end to worries that the vulnerable rookie senator could get waylaid by a family feud.

But recent comments from Gillibrand and the former Tennessee congressman suggest the diversion might continue on for some time, though Ford has said he'll let his intentions be known in the coming weeks.

If it's a go, buckle up— New York’s primary doesn't take place until Sept. 14th, which leaves months of potential bloodletting before a nominee is chosen. The New York GOP is probably too weak to capitalize in any event, but that could change if a Republican with immediate stature saw an opportunity — someone like former Gov. George Pataki.


Third time's a charm for Rossi in Washington

Sen. Patty Murray’s (D-Wash.) high-water mark in three races is 58 percent — hardly the stuff of an untouchable incumbent.

If the GOP can reel in a big fish who can connect with suburbanites and dominate in eastern Washington — not a heavy lift since Murray lost every county east of the Cascades in 2004 — this seemingly sleepy seat could be in play.

The polling data demonstrates that Republican Dino Rossi could be that candidate. Sure, he's a two-time loser to Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire — in 2004 by a mere 129 votes and in 2008 by 6 points — but a recent Rasmussen Reports survey had Rossi leading the three-term Democratic senator 48 percent to 46 percent, including an 8-point advantage with independents.

It marked the first time a public poll showed Murray behind this cycle. And while saying he has "no plans to run for any office," Rossi wasn’t exactly Shermanesque in a recent interview with POLITICO.

"Never say never," he added.

Rep. Dave Reichert, who has held a Democratic-leaning suburban Seattle seat during a dismal period for the GOP, also might make an attractive opponent to Murray, though he isn’t likely to run, close associates say.

The Republicans already in the field, including state Sen. Don Benton and former NFL tight end Clint Didier, at the moment don't appear to have the standing or fundraising ability necessary to seriously challenge Murray.

So it might all come down to Rossi. "He's got a good narrative; he's got good statewide ID. The environment on the ground is vastly improved. I know he's receiving the full-court press to run," said Republican strategist Rick Wilson.

Meanwhile, Murray's sending up the warning flares — she recently wrote supporters in a fundraising e-mail that after the Massachusetts Senate special election in January, Republicans "are emboldened like perhaps never before and their thirst for victory is unquenchable."

Another GOP advantage: The relatively late filing deadline of June 11 means prospective candidates have ample time to make up their minds.


Specter’s campaign trail vigor in Pennsylvania

Pols don’t get any tougher, or more resilient, than Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter, the five-term Democratic incumbent who switched parties last year.

In recent years he’s dealt with a brain tumor and Hodgkin’s disease and even wrote a book — titled “Never Give In” — about his experience battling cancer while serving in the Senate.

But as he confronts a stiff primary challenge, followed by an equally tough general election contest, the delicate issue of his age and health remains a widespread, though rarely publicly aired, topic of discussion among Pennsylvania political insiders. A single, well-publicized gaffe or stumble could suddenly insert the issue into the public conversation in a race where Specter has little room for error.

Specter, who turned 80 years old last week, doesn’t have to look far to find examples of campaigns where a senator’s advanced age played a key role in determining the outcome.

Specter is now older than former GOP Sen. William Roth of Delaware, the popular late incumbent who lost reelection in 2000 at the age of 79 after several campaign trail incidents reminded voters of his age — and underscored the relative youth and vigor of his Democratic opponent, Tom Carper.

Across the border in New Jersey, there’s another example: Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg (himself now 86) also first won his seat in 1982 by questioning the “fitness” of septuagenarian Sen. Millicent Fenwick.












Michael Steele To Meet With Tea Party Leaders At RNC Headquarters



Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele plans to sit down with about 50 Tea Party leaders Tuesday in the first such meeting of two wings of the conservative movement that could be either vital partners or bitter rivals.

The meeting is part of a broader effort by national Republicans to reach out to Tea Party activists rather than risk their hand-picked candidates being run over by the movement.

"The chairman believes it extremely important to listen to this significant grassroots movement and work to find common ground in order to elect officials that will protect these principles," RNC spokeswoman Katie Wright said.

But one Tea Party activist who traveled hundreds of miles to attend the meeting at RNC headquarters in Washington, D.C., said sparks could fly.

"Steele wants to try to co-opt us, but we're coming to tell him he doesn't get it. We want to return the Republican Party to its roots. We're expecting some fireworks," the activist said.

Tea Party supporters identify far more with the Republican platform than the Democratic Party's, but they have not been shy about voicing their discontent with elected Republicans and running against the party's favored candidates. They threw an upstate New York congressional race into disarray last fall when they backed a third-party candidate over Republican Dede Scozzafava, forcing her out of the race. Democrat Bill Owens won the special election.

Tea Party activists have since targeted multiple Republicans they don't feel are conservative enough, such as Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and Utah Sen. Bob Bennett.

There is no single Tea Party group or individual in charge of the activists, but the movement has been trying to become more organized and focused. Tea Party organizers from across the country attended a national convention two weeks ago in Nashville, where they discussed strategy for this year's midterm elections.

Some Republican figures, including former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, view the movement as a major force in the upcoming elections that Republicans in some districts will have to court if they want to win.



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Sources: Politico, Fox News, MSNBC, Google Maps

Evan Bayh Resigning; Tired Of Obama's Partisan Lies; GOP Victory

Why Evan Bayh Won't Seek Re-election


Sen. Evan Bayh will not run for re-election, a decision that will shock Democrats and Republicans alike in Indiana.

In prepared remarks, Bayh, 54, cited excessive partisanship that makes progress on public policy difficult to achieve as the motivation for his decision.

“After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so in Congress has waned,” he said.

“My decision was not motivated by political concern,” he added. “Even in the current challenging environment, I am confident in my prospects for re-election.”

Bayh had never lost an election, from his first win in 1986 as secretary of state, his wins for governor in 1988 and 1992 and his election to the U.S. Senate in 1998 and 2004.

“But running for the sake of winning an election, just to remain in public office, is not good enough,” Bayh said. “And it has never been what motivates me. At this time I simply believe I can best contribute to society in another way: creating jobs by helping grow a business, helping guide an institution of higher learning or helping run a worthy charitable endeavor.”

Only days ago, Bayh’s staff, close associates and Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Dan Parker, who was manager of Bayh’s re-election campaign, had assured an Indianapolis Star reporter that he would definitely seek a third term in the U.S. Senate. And Democrats recently released a poll showing Bayh easily ahead of both former Sen. Dan Coats and former U.S. Rep. John Hostettler, two of the four Republicans seeking the GOP nomination.

But in his statement, Bayh cited recent stalemates in Congress.

“Two weeks ago, the Senate voted down a bipartisan commission to deal with one of the greatest threats facing our nation: our exploding deficits and debt. The measure would have passed, but seven members who had endorsed the idea instead voted ‘no’ for short-term political reasons,” he said. “Just last week, a major piece of legislation to create jobs — the public’s top priority — fell apart amid complaints from both the left and right. All of this and much more has led me to believe that there are better ways to serve my fellow citizens, my beloved state and our nation than continued service in Congress.”

The decision ends one of the brightest political careers by Indiana Democrat, at least for now.

Bayh, the son of former U.S. Sen. Birch Bayh, had been the nation’s youngest governor when he first won Indiana’s chief executive job at age 33 in 1988, and was frequently mentioned as a possibility for vice president, and was on President Barack Obama’s list of only three finalists before Obama settled on former Sen. Joe Biden. Bayh also considered running for president himself, launching an exploratory effort in 2006 for the 2008 Democratic Party nomination before dropping the effort only a couple weeks later.

He was born in Shirkieville, near Terre Haute, to Birch and Marvella Bayh; graduate from Indiana University in 1978 and received a law degree from the University of Virginia in 1981. He and his wife Susan have 14-year-old twin sons, Nick and Beau.

Bayh is expected to discuss his decision at a 2 p.m. news conference today at the IUPUI University Place Conference Center and Hotel, 850 W. Michigan Street.




















Sen. Evan Bayh To Not Seek Re-election


Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana has decided to not seek re-election, NBC confirms.

The Indianapolis Star reports that Bayh is attributing his decision to excessive partisanship that makes progress on public policy difficult to achieve as the motivation for his decision.

Bayh scheduled a Monday afternoon news conference in Indianapolis. The Associated Press left messages seeking comment at his Senate office and for state Democratic chairman Dan Parker, who is Bayh's campaign manager.

"After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so in Congress has waned," he told the Indianapolis Star.

"My decision was not motivated by political concern," he added. "Even in the current challenging environment, I am confident in my prospects for re-election."

Bayh's exit gives Republicans a prime pick-up opportunity. Former Indiana Sen. Dan Coats (R) is running for the seat. Bayh was leading Coats by 20 points (55% to 35%) in a recent Research 2000/DailyKos poll.

Republicans now have Senate pick-up opportunities in at least eight states — Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, and North Dakota.


GOP needs 10 seats

To take back control of the Senate, Republicans will need to gain a net of 10 seats.

Democrats have pick-up opportunities in at least three states — New Hampshire, Ohio, and Missouri.

Democrats have been hammering Coats for his residence, his lobbying and more. And a Democratic official says Bayh was ahead.

"They polled last week and were way ahead of Coats," the official said, adding that petitions were due tomorrow and the Bayh campaign's "were all done."

The decision "must have been a last minute, personal decision."

As for who could run to replace Bayh, look to Reps. Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill. Democrats are working to convince either — both of whom represent swing districts in the Southern part of the state. Ellsworth, the former Vanderburgh County sherriff, is seen by some observers as, potentially, the strongest Democratic candidate. Hill is a former Indiana high school basketball star.

On the Republican side, Rep. Mike Pence could reverse course and decide to jump into the race.

"Since petitions due tomorrow, there will be a vacancy and because of that there's a way for the party to name the candidate afterwards," the Democratic official said, adding, "And don't forget how weak the Republican field is right now. Coats now damaged goods, and there's no Mitch Daniels running."

Bayh, 54, grew up mostly in Washington, D.C., and is the son of former Sen. Birch Bayh. He was first elected in 1998.


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Sources: AP, Indianapolis Star, MSNBC, Google Maps