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Wednesday, May 12, 2010

PPP Claims Marshall Tied With Cunningham (N.C. Poll Hype & Corruption)

Marshall & Cunningham Tied In 2010 N.C. Senate Runoff

Just a week after besting Cal Cunningham by nine points in the initial primary, Elaine Marshall is now tied with Cunningham at 36% in the runoff to face Richard Burr in November.

There is an enthusiasm gap between the two candidates’ supporters. Among the 49% who are very excited to vote in November, Cunningham leads 46-31.

Among the 38% who are somewhat excited and the 11% who are not very excited, Marshall leads 42-31 and 28-18, respectively.

Cunningham leads among the 62% of likely voters who are white, 43-32, while Marshall
leads with the 33% share of the electorate which is African American, 44-22.

Among the 41% who are aged 46-65, Cunningham leads 43-30, but Marshall leads by five or eleven points in all other age groups.

Marshall is still the most popular candidate among Democratic runoff voters, with a 49-9 favorability rating to Cunningham’s 35-14.

Despite Marshall’s argument that North Carolina voters do not want Washington
Democrats to pick their candidate for them, it seems to be a good thing to be seen as the DSCC’s choice.

Voters are split, 33 who say Cunningham and 32 Marshall, on who they think is that choice to begin with.

Among those who think it is Marshall, she has a 73% favorability rating and leads Cunningham 74-11. Among those who think the DSCC backs Cunningham, he has a 74% favorability mark and beats Marshall 82-12.

“Next month’s runoff election is likely to see even lower turnout than last week’s
primary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

“We’re finding that Cunningham’s supporters are more enthusiastic than Marshall’s, and that could allow him to close the gap from last week’s results between now and the runoff.”

PPP surveyed 445 likely Senate runoff voters from May 8th to 10th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.6%.

Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

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Sources: Public Policy Polling, Google Maps

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