North Carolina Is Bleeding Jobs! Lawmakers Cooking Numbers!

A Closer Look At N.C.'s Unemployment Rate

Can't find a job?

It's easy to blame yourself as you watch the state's unemployment rate plunge, from 11.2 in March of this year to 9.6 in September. You see state political leaders taking a victory lap on television and that makes you feel even worse. If other unemployed people seem to be getting jobs, family and friends point out, surely you can too.

You've been pounding the pavement for months though, and you keep hearing that things are getting better, but you've got this gut sense that they are actually getting worse.

You're not imagining this. The state of North Carolina is bleeding jobs. As in losing them. Gone. Buh-bye. How can that be if the unemployment rate is going down?

The unemployment rate is horribly misleading. As former business writer and MeckDeck.com blogger Jeff Taylor pointed out, since March, when the unemployment rate in North Carolina hit a high for the year of 11.2 percent, the state has actually lost 8,700 jobs.

For those who know how to read it, Friday's jobs report was a bloodbath as 6,700 jobs disappeared statewide in a single month. According to the state employment security commission's seasonally adjusted estimates, the total employed number in September was 4,048,220. That's down from 4,054,885 in August.

An eighth grader could see the arc in state employment in this simple graph on the Employment Commission website. For the first five months of the year, total employment grew steadily as the state and the nation appeared to be slowly recovering. Then it hit a wall in May with a high of 4,095,438 and began to reverse course.

Ever wonder why economists now say they don't expect things to improve until at least 2012 despite the drop in the unemployment rate? This is why.

So why is the state unemployment rate going down? Because 13,186 people dropped out of the state labor pool in September, presumably leaving the ranks of those actively hunting for a job in frustration. That's why the unemployment rate continues to go down even as thousands of jobs vanish.

Meanwhile, the political cabal running the state jumped to take credit for another decrease in unemployment rate ahead of the election. They credited their economic policies, which included, uh, hiking taxes in the middle of a recession and um, spending more than they did the year before while claiming to be broke. As you can see, that's going smashingly.

We can only hope for another tax hike and spending increase next year. Maybe we can knock the raw jobs number down to three million and so many people will give up looking for work that the unemployment rate will go down even further ... like to 8 percent. Problem solved.

As Taylor points out, there were 282,775 fewer jobs in the state in September than there were in January 2008, at the height of pre-recession employment.

The raw job numbers aren't just headed to Hades in North Carolina. The national trend is almost identical as the total employed numbers drop and the workforce shrinks because people have given up looking for a job and dropped out.

Between January and April, according to the Employment Security Commission, total seasonally adjusted employment in this country grew by 1,122,000 jobs, a good sign. Then it abruptly reversed course, declining by 64,000 by September. That means that roughly 12 percent of that decline was in North Carolina. Not good.

If you are struggling with the stigma of unemployment, which can eat at your self-image after a while, know this: It's likely not your fault. You are not alone. And you may want to consider a move to Texas. Half the net new jobs in the country were created there over the past year.

The state has no income tax, barebones regulation of business and is among the nation's 10 lowest for overall tax burden. (North Carolina regularly ranks among the top 10 to top 11 highest-taxed states.)

Perhaps this is all just a fluke. Maybe things will get better. But if I were unemployed, I'd be loading up the U-Haul and heading west.


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Sources: Creative Loafing, Meck Deck Blog, McClatchy Newspapers, WRAL, Youtube, Google Maps

Obama's Hopeless 11th Hour Battle Cry: Decision 2010

President Obama Comes Home To Rally Democrats


On a beautiful Fall night in Chicago, a huge crowd, well into the thousands on the city's south side, welcomed President Barack Obama back to his old neighborhood. Tonight's "Move America Forward" Rally near University of Chicago, attracted "tens of thousands of people" according to event organizers.

With only three days left until Election day, President Obama wasted no time telling the crowd, "I need you to knock on some doors. I need you to get out and vote." President obviously happy to be back in his old stomping grounds, said, "I can't think of anything better than being with my hometown crowd that is fired up. Plus, I'm going to sleep in my own bed tonight." But the President's message was clear, "Chicago, in three days you have the chance to set the direction of this state and this country for years to come and just like you did in 2008, you can defy conventional wisdom."

This is the third time President Obama has traveled to Chicago in the past few months to campaign for Illionis Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias. Giannoulias, currently Illinois Treasurer, is in a heated race with republican candidate, US Rep. Mark Kirk.

Before the President's speech, rap artist Common, a Chicago native, fired up the crowd with his music and then took a few minutes to remind people to get out and vote. "I wanna encourage everybody to vote on Tuesday. Go vote. Democratic. We support Barack Obama. We want health care and education. So we're here supporting Barack Obama and the Democratic movement."

Tonight's rally is at the Midway Plaisance Park in Chicago's Hyde Park neighborhood, about a mile south of President Obama's Chicago home. The rally is the third stop for President Obama today as he criss-crosses the country rallying voters to get out and vote on Election day.

Other high profile democrats at tonight's rally included, Chicago's Mayor, Richard M. Daley, who will not run for re-election next year, Illinois' senior US Senator Dick Durbin and junior US Senator, Roland Burris.



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Sources: Fox News, MSNBC, Google Maps

Decision 2010 Makes Voters Want To "SCREAM!" (Videos)

Charges Of Voter Fraud Ignite Accusations Of Racism Against Justice Department, Tea Party


With just 3 days to go until Election Day, charges of voter intimidation and voter fraud are flying, and the Justice Department, which has been rocked by accusations of reverse racism in its handling of similar allegations, is likely to take on as many cases as it did in the 2008 presidential year.

The Justice Department is looking into allegations of voter intimidation by poll watchers in predominantly minority neighborhoods in Harris County, Texas, during the first day of early voting. A liberal blog suggested that some of the poll watchers could be members of a local Tea Party group.

But the Justice Department has made clear that its investigation has nothing to do with the Tea Party.

"There is no investigation into any specific political organization, including the Tea Party, at this time regarding this matter," DOJ spokeswoman Xochitl Hinojosa said in a written statement.

In another set of fly-by charges, Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, who is battling to capture President Obama's old U.S. Senate seat in Illinois, accused his Republican opponent, Rep. Mark Kirk, of setting up voter fraud-watch areas in Chicago in an attempt to discourage black voters.

That claim, disputed by Kirk -- he argued that Giannoulias might be the last person in Illinois to think the state doesn't have fraud problems -- could benefit Democrats among an energized urban electorate in a non-presidential cycle likely to be dominated by suburban voters.

Taken together, the complaint and the report shifts the spotlight back on past and current accusations of racism against the Obama administration and the Tea Party movement.

The Justice Department has been fending off charges of reverse racism ever since two former Civil Rights Division attorneys alleged that the department under Attorney General Eric Holder follows a policy of not bringing civil rights charges against black defendants on behalf of white victims.

The Tea Party movement has been repeatedly accused of harboring racist elements ever since some Tea Party activists catcalled U.S. lawmakers, including some minority members, during an anti-'Obamacare' protest on Capitol Hill earlier this year.


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Sources: CNN, Daily Beast, Fox News, Freedom Lighthouse, MSNBC, Youtube, Google Maps

North Carolina Decision 2010: Best Of State Election Picks: Burr & Murray!

"Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
Albert Einstein



Decision 2010!



November 2010 North Carolina Best Of State Picks:


U.S. Senate: Richard Burr (R) (Only Because Cal Cunningham Is No Longer In The Race.)


U.S. House Of Representatives: (12th District) Greg Dority (R)

U.S. House Of Representatives: (9th District) Sue Myrick (R)

U.S. House Of Representatives: (8th District) Harold Johnson (R)


N.C. Senate: (35th) Tommy Tucker (R)

N.C. Senate: (37th) C. Morgan Edwards (R)

N.C. Senate: (38th) Cedric Scott (R)

N.C. Senate: (39) Bob Rucho (R)

N.C. Senate: (40th) John Anarella (R)


N.C. House Of Representatives: (98th) Thom Tillis (R)

N.C. House Of Representatives: (99th) Michael T. Wilson (R)

N.C. House Of Representatives: (100th) Tricia Cotham (D)

N.C. House Of Representatives: (101th) Rebecca H. Steen (R)

N.C. House Of Representatives: (102th) Becky Carney (D)

N.C. House Of Representatives: (103th) Bill Brawley (R)

N.C. House Of Representatives: (104th) Ruth Samuelson (R)

N.C. House Of Representatives: (105th) Rick Killian (R)

N.C. House Of Representatives: (106th) Michael Cavallo (R)

N.C. House Of Representatives: (107th) Kelly M. Alexander Jr. (D)


Superior Court District 26B: Bill Constangy (Non-Partisan)

Superior Court District 26B: Donnie Hoover (Non-Partisan)


District Court 26: Twyla E. Hollingsworth (Non-Partisan)

District Court 26: Rickye McKoy-Mitchell (Non-Partisan)

District Court 26: Theo Nixon (Non-Partisan)


Mecklenburg County District Attorney: Andrew Murray (R) (Excellent Choice For Mecklenburg County's Next District Attorney's Office. I Strongly Believe Mr. Murray Will Treat Everyone Fair. Please Support Him In This Election.)


Mecklenburg County Sheriff: Chipp Bailey (D)


Mecklenburg County Commissioner At-Large: Harold Cogdell Jr. (D) (I Really Appreciate How Well He Represents Mecklenburg County. Please Support Him In This Election.)

Mecklenburg County Commissioner At-Large: Jim Pendergraph (R)

Mecklenburg County Commissioner At-Large: (Dan Ramirez) (R)


Mecklenburg County Commissioner: (1) Karen Bentley (R)

Mecklenburg County Commissioner: (2) Vilma Leake (D) (I Really Appreciate How Well She Represents Her District. Please Support Her In This Election.)

Mecklenburg County Commissioner: (3) Barbara Eveland (R)

Mecklenburg County Commissioner: (4) Virginia Mewborne Spykerman (R)

Mecklenburg County Commissioner: (5) Neil Cooksey (R)

Mecklenburg County Commissioner: (6) Bill James (R)


Voters Haven't North Carolina Residents Endured Enough Corruption The Past 112 Years??

Along With President Obama's Historic Election In 2008, The November 2, 2010 General Elections Could Be One Of The Most Important Elections Of This Century.

I Am Encouraging Every Eligible, Registered North Carolina Voter To Please Get Out & Vote!

If You Don't Vote, Than Later On Don't Complain!


Here Are My Election Picks For The Citizens Of North Carolina & Mecklenburg County.

This Are The Candidates I Support. You Don't Have To Agree.

Due To How Poorly Democrats Have Represented Black Voters In This State For 112 Years, I Am Throwing My Hat In The Ring For A Republican Majority.

Thus Most Of My Picks Are Republicans.

Once Again These Are MY 2010 Election Picks!

For The Record I Would Like To Remind North Carolina's Black Voters That Despite A Democrat Controlled Government For The Past 112 Years, North Carolina Remains Very Racist State, With Clear Evidence Of Blatant Discrimination In All Levels Of Government.

Including:

Public Schools (Segregation), Small Business Opportunities, Government Contracts For Black-Owned Businesses, Health Care, Mental Health Care, Mass Transportation (Especially In Charlotte), Housing, Criminal Justice, Civil Rights, College Funding, Death Penalty, Intentionally Killing Young Black Men Or Putting Them In Prison, Not Investigating Murders Of Black Women & Sexual Abuse Of Black Girls, Intentionally Keeping Black Children In Foster Care To Secure More Federal Funds, Highest Unemployment Rate Among Blacks But Not Wanting To Give Black Unemployed Residents Unemployment Benefits, Highest Number Of Blacks Losing Their Homes To Foreclosure, Enforcing Unfair Taxation Laws For Blacks, Allowing Developers To Build Shoddy Homes For Black & Hispanic Homeowners (Charlotte), Artificially Inflated Property Home Values (Charlotte), (Closing Libraries & Pools In Black Communities, Higher Utility Bills For Black Consumers Vs. White Consumers, Intentionally Violating Federal H.U.D. Laws For Affordable Housing (Charlotte), Allowing Developers To Include Mandatory Crooked HOA (Home Owner Associations) Contracts Into Home Loans Contracts For Black Home Buyers (Charlotte), etc.,


I Also Want To Remind Black Voters That The Democratic Party Doesn't Own The Black Vote.

Black Voters Own The Black Vote!


As I've Mentioned Several Times Previously, I Do NOT Advocate Or Support Straight Ticket Voting!

Before Returning To The Polls This November Please Do Your Research. I Suggest Very Carefully.

Vote Your Conscious NOT Ethnic Group/ Race Or Culture.

Vote Your Conscious NOT Political Party.

And Please Check Public Service Records & Double Check Resumes!

More Importantly Pray & Seek God's Wisdom On Whom To Cast Your Ballots For This November.

Its Time For Real CHANGE In North Carolina!!

See You At The Polls.

Peace


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Sources: Charmeck.org, McClatchy Newspapers, UNC-TV, WCNC, Youtube, Google Maps

NRCC vs Michael Steele: "GOP Not Ready To Lead"

NRCC Pushes Back Against Steele Over 2010 Pessimism, GOP Operatives Furious


Republican operatives are privately furious with RNC Chairman Michael Steele for predicting on Monday night that the GOP will not take over the House of Representatives in 2010.

One strategist called the comment "Stupid," arguing that it will put the party in a bind when it comes to candidate recruitment and generally lower expectations and excitement over the 2010 elections. Others, who refused to go on the record, lamented the inevitable follow-up questions that would be asked to Republicans, such as: do you agree with the sentiments of the RNC Chairman?

And, sure enough, on Tuesday, the National Congressional Campaign Committee released a statement in which it basically slapped down Steele for his electoral prognostication.

"The NRCC's goal -- as the campaign arm of the House Republican Conference -- has always been to recapture the majority in 2010," said Ken Spain, press secretary for the committee. "Independent political analysts and even liberal columnists have stated that Republicans have a very real shot at taking back the majority in 2010. Make no mistake about it, we are playing to win."

It is extremely rare to see two campaign committees on such different pages when it comes to messaging. Steele was able to survive a rocky start to his tenure at the RNC. But the grumbling never fully died down -- and his remarks on Sean Hannity's radio show Monday night have only exacerbated the situation.

"I can't give a number [of seats the GOP will win] yet, because like I said, we're just now beginning to look at the races," Steele said. Asked if Republicans will take back the House, he confessed: "Not this year."

"I don't know all the candidates yet," Steele added. "We still have some vacancies that need to get filled, but then the question we need to ask ourselves is: 'If we do that, are we ready?'"


Sources: Huffington Post, Fox News, Sean Hannity Show, NRCC, TPM, Youtube

Tea (Party) Is The New Kool-Aid For Republicans; Savior Of GOP's Future

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

The GOP's Tea Party Challenge


Jim DeMint is just the latest conservative flirting with the far right's growing insurgency. Mark McKinnon on who's who in the bid to lead the movement—and what Republicans can do to capitalize on it.

Tea is the new Kool-Aid for Republicans. And a lot of candidates and officeholders on the right are drinking from it like a fire hose. And they tend to be some of the bigger media magnets in the party—like Sarah Palin, say, and, lately, South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, who’s hitting the headlines over his bid to block a Transportation Security Administration nominee.

Much of the media and most Democrats are dismissive of what is truly a grassroots movement. But the Tea Party has shown remarkable energy in its short life span—dating back about a year ago, when CNBC commentator Rick Santelli went on a live-TV rant about mortgage policy and suggested a Chicago Tea Party.

The Republican Party brand has taken a beating in recent years, so it’s not entirely surprising that among all voters the Tea Party is attracting more support than the Grand Old Party. And among unaffiliated voters, the Tea Party outpolls both major parties.

And so we increasingly see Republicans genuflecting to the movement that has more credibility than our own party in an effort to attract attention and support among mostly conservative voters.

It’s a very interesting dance right now watching the courtship between the movement and GOP candidates and officeholders. Former Republican House leader Dick Armey, head of Freedom Works, and Fox News bugle-blower Glenn Beck are among those helping to fan the flames of Tea Party fever. But the movement is wary of being identified as “Republican” or being controlled by any individuals or organization; note how its leaders furiously shot down RNC Chairman Michael Steele’s attempt to align himself and the national party.

But that hasn’t stopped GOP bees from flying around the honey in the Tea. Nor has it stopped the movement from a soliciting a select few like-minded politicians.

So far, the Tea Party list of unofficial political patriots includes:

• Sarah Palin:

The reigning queen of the disenfranchised. The former Alaska governor has been invited to be the keynote speaker at a national Tea Party symposium in San Antonio, Texas, January 24. Think this event will generate any press?

• Michele Bachmann:

The reigning Tea Party princess. The Minnesota House Republican with the sharp tongue has been leading the charge at Washington rallies and is one of only two elected officials to be asked to speak at the February national convention.

• Jim DeMint:

The junior senator from South Carolina, currently holding up a crucial TSA appointment. DeMint spoke at a Tea Party march in Washington Sept.12, and Dec. 2 at a Tea Party gathering for the screening of a movie about the movement.

• Rick Perry:

The Texas governor held a Texas “Tea Party” rally on April 15, which garnered national attention and Palin’s endorsement. He always speaks highly of the tea partiers—who had to love Perry’s call for Texas to secede from the Union.

Others, like Congressmen Mike Pence (R-IN), Eric Cantor (R-VA), Joe Wilson (R-SC), and John Culberson (R-TX), are vying for a seat at the table. And you can bet many more will be clamoring for scraps in the months ahead.

The Tea Party crowd is unlikely to actually become a third party, but their ability to leverage energy behind candidates and policies could be very similar to what MoveOn.org has accomplished on the left. Movements are also often identified by a clear leader. The question that remains: Who will that be? This list would be a good place to start.



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Sources: The Daily Beast, MSNBC, Morning Joe Show

GOP To Pick Up 21+ Seats In November; Decision 2010

21 House Seats Move Toward GOP



After a recent quarterly overview of all of U.S. House races across the country, we moved 21 House seats toward the Republicans. On top of that, Republicans gained Alabama's 5th District when Cong. Parker Griffith switched to the GOP before Christmas. His seat moved from Lean Democratic to Currently Safe for the GOP.

We moved only one seat toward the Democrats (New York's 23rd). Despite recent GOP retirements in California's 19th District (George Radanovich) and South Carolina's 1st District (Henry Brown), the two seats don't make our list at this point.

And as we said in our latest overview, substantial Republican gains now look almost inevitable, with net Democratic losses likely to exceed a dozen. While Democratic control of the House is not yet at risk, losses of 15-20 seats are likely, and that target range could well grow with additional Democratic retirements and voter anger. Griffith's switch means Republicans net 40 seats for the majority.

Here are our latest House ratings:

#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Pure Toss-Up (2 R, 13 D)

* AL 2 (Bright, D)
* CO 4 (Markey, D) *
* FL 8 (Grayson, D)
* ID 1 (Minnick, D)
* IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
* MD 1 (Kratovil, D)
* MS 1 (Childers, D)
* NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
* NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
* OH 1 (Driehaus, D)
* OH 15 (Kilroy, D)
* PA 6 (Open; Gerlach, R)
* PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
* TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D)
* WA 3 (Open; Baird, D) *


Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (1 R, 4 D)

* KS 3 (Open; Moore, D) *
* LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
* NM 2 (Teague, D)*
* VA 5 (Perriello, D)*
* WA 8 (Reichert, R)

Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 3 D)

* FL 24 (Kosmas, D)
* IL 14 (Foster, D)
* MI 7 (Schauer, D)

Lean Republican (1 R, 1 D)

* CA 3 (Lungren, R)
* TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D) *

Lean Democratic (0 R, 9 D)

* AR 2 (Snyder, D) *
* HI 1 (Open; Abercrombie, D) * Special Election
* MO 4 (Skelton, D) *
* NV 3 (Titus, D) *
* NY 19 (Hall, D) *
* NY 23 (Owens, D) #
* NY 24 (Arcuri, D)
* NY 29 (Massa, D)
* VA 2 (Nye, D) *

Republican Favored (8 R, 0 D)

* CA 44 (Calvert, R) *
* CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
* MN 3 (Paulsen, R)
* MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
* NE 2 (Terry, R)
* OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
* OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
* PA 15 (Dent, R)

Democrat Favored (2 R, 16 D)

* AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
* AR 1 (Berry, D) *
* CA 47 (Sanchez, D)
* DE A-L (Open; Castle, R)
* GA 8 (Marshall, D)
* IN 9 (Hill, D) *
* IA 3 (Boswell, D) *
* LA 2 (Cao, R)
* NY 20 (Murphy, D)
* NC 8 (Kissell, D)
* OH 16 (Boccieri, D) *
* OH 18 (Space, D)
* PA 10 (Carney, D)
* PA 11 (Kanjorski, D) *
* SC 5 (Spratt, D) *
* SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D) *
* TX 17 (Edwards, D)
* WI 8 (Kagen, D) *

Total seats in play: 60

Republican seats: 14
Democratic seats: 46


Sources: Rothenberg Political Report, The Daily Beast, MSNBC

GOP's Top Brass Persuading Other Congressional Dems To Switch...Decision 2010

McCain, GOP Secretly Courting Another Dem To Switch


Republicans are stepping up their efforts to persuade more House Democrats to switch parties and are zeroing in on a second-term Pennsylvanian who is not ruling out such a move.

Democratic Rep. Chris Carney received a phone call Wednesday from Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) asking him to consider becoming a Republican, a top GOP official told POLITICO.

A spokesman for Carney declined to say if the congressman was considering such a switch.

“No further comment at this time,” said Carney spokesman Josh Drobnyk, who would only confirm that the call took place.

In a brief interview, McCain declined to offer details about the conversation.

“I just said, ‘Whatever you do, I know that you’ll make the right decision for the country,’” said the Arizonan.

A source familiar with the call said that Republicans thought Carney might be susceptible to McCain’s entreaty because, like the senator, the 50-year-old House member served in the Navy .

McCain’s call to Carney comes one day after freshman Alabama Democrat Parker Griffith announced that he was uncomfortable with his party’s direction and was becoming a Republican.

That House Republicans would deploy their party’s 2008 presidential standard-bearer to reach out to Carney underscores the sense of opportunity the GOP feels with the Griffith switch, along with polls showing voters turning sharply away from Democratic policies. So party officials are moving quickly to capitalize on the trend with other Democrats from conservative-leaning districts in hopes of creating a snowball effect.

“Politics is a momentum sport,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

A senior Republican said that the Senate GOP is expected to receive a list of party-switching targets.

But persuading colleagues to change sides is a delicate matter, often handled at the member level and with great discretion. The hope is to bag the quarry without being seen or heard trying to do so.

A top House Republican aide, wanting to avoid revealing a poaching patrol, downplayed the effort.

“You’ve got to have a willing partner; you don’t just hunt these guys down,” said the Republican. “They have to nudge you first.”

But the aide acknowledged that they had gotten “a nibble” from Carney and were now making the pitch that he’d be better off switching parties than running again as a Democrat in a northeastern Pennsylvania seat that President Obama lost by 9 percentage points last year.

Rep. Bill Shuster, a Pennsylvania Republican, is taking the lead on the effort to persuade his colleague to switch, said a GOP aide.

Carney, who is still a Commander in the Navy Reserve, represents a rural swath of northeastern Pennsylvania that was historically represented by Republicans, including such prominent figures as William Scranton and Joseph McDade.

But Carney knocked off scandal-plagued former GOP Rep. Don Sherwood in 2006 to capture the seat in the same year Democrats retook the congressional majority.

Before Carney’s upset win, Republicans held the seat for nearly four decades.

Carney hadn’t drawn a leading GOP opponent so far this year, but Republicans had been recruiting former U.S. Attorney Tom Marino to run for the seat. Marino met with the National Republican Congressional Committee last week, according to a GOP source.

Another leading candidate, state Rep. Mike Peifer, abruptly decided not to run against Carney this week.

“My family comes first,” Peifer told the Pike County Press. “We decided together that I would not run.”

Peifer did not respond to a phone call from POLITICO seeking comment.

Despite being a top GOP target and running in a district that McCain easily carried, Carney comfortably won re-election last year, taking 56 percent of the vote.

And in his two terms in the House, Carney, a Blue Dog, has been a fairly reliable leadership vote. He supported the stimulus earlier this year and recently provided a key vote on health care and financial regulation legislation — all bills that some of his conservative Democratic colleagues opposed.

Not all Conservative Democrats are up for grabs, though.

With Griffith’s announcement Tuesday, eyes immediately turned to his home state freshman counterpart, Rep. Bobby Bright.

But Bright told the House Democratic leadership Tuesday night that he planned to stay in the party, according to a senior Democratic aide.

Similarly, Rep. Walt Minnick (D-Idaho), another freshman Blue Dog who would be a prime target, indicated in a statement to POLITICO that he won’t switch.

“I will remain as Independent as Idaho, I will not be switching parties, and I will win in November,” Minnick said in the statement.



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Sources: Politico, Google Maps

Health Care Bill Passage Another Political Win For Pres. Obama...Decision 2010

Health care reform will be an Obama victory. When Senate health care legislation finally passes, it will be a win for the president.

However for Congressional Democrats facing re-election in 2010, it won't be a reciprocal victory.

NBC’s David Gregory offers analysis.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Sources: MSNBC

Parker Griffith Blames Pelosi's Leadership For Switch To GOP

House Democrat Blames Pelosi, Leaders For Switch


Democratic Rep. Parker Griffith announced Tuesday that he's switching parties – saying he can no longer align himself “with a party that continues to pursue legislation that is bad for our country, hurts our economy and drives us further and further into debt.”

“Unfortunately there are those in the Democratic Leadership that continue to push an agenda focused on massive new spending, tax increases, bailouts and a health care bill that is bad for our healthcare system,” Griffith said in a statement. “I have always considered myself to be an independent voice and I have tried to be that voice in Congress – but after watching this agenda firsthand I now believe that the differences in the two parties could not be more clear and that for me to be true to my core beliefs and values I must align myself with the Republican party and speak out clearly on these issues.

Griffith’s party switch comes on the eve of a pivotal congressional health care vote and will send a jolt through a Democratic House Caucus that has already been unnerved by the recent retirements of a handful of members who, like Griffith, hail from districts that offer prime pickup opportunities for the GOP in 2010.

The switch represents a coup for the House Republican leadership, which had been courting Griffith since he publicly criticized the Democratic leadership in the wake of raucous town halls during the summer.

Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor, the No. 2 Republican in the House, hailed Griffith's move from a large majority to a small minority as proof that the Democrats have become “completely disconnected from seniors, young workers and and families in America.”

Liberals countered that Griffith was essentially a Republican all along, and Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said he should give back the money Democrats have contributed to his campaign.

"House Democratic members and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee took Parker Griffith at his word and, as a result, invested a great deal in working with Alabamans to bring Mr. Griffith to Congress," he said in a statement. "Mr. Griffith, failing to honor our commitment to him, has a duty and responsibility to return to Democratic Members and the DCCC the financial resources that were invested in him. His constituents will hold him accountable for failing to keep his commitments."

Griffith, who captured his seat in a close 2008 open seat contest, will become the first Republican to hold the historically Democratic, Huntsville-based district. A radiation oncologist who founded a cancer treatment center, Griffith cited the Democratic health care bill as a major reason for his switch.

“I want to make it perfectly clear that his bill is bad for our doctors, our patients and will have unintended consequences far beyond what we know today,” he said. “As a doctor and as a Republican, I plan to once again oppose this measure and hope that we can defeat this bill that is a major threat to our nation.”

While the timing of his announcement was unexpected, Griffith’s party switch will not come as a surprise to those familiar with his voting record, which is one of the most conservative among Democrats. "He has bucked the Democratic leadership on nearly all of its major domestic initiatives, including the stimulus package, health care legislation, the cap-and trade energy bill and financial regulatory reform. "He was one of only 11 House Democrats to vote against the stimulus.

“Look at his voting record – he’s had substantial differences philosophically with the Democratic agenda here in Congress,” said an Alabama ally who is familiar with Griffith’s decision. “It’s something that’s been discussed for the last several months… talking to people in his family. And it genuinely is a reflection of where he feels. It’s his own personal conviction.”

The Obama administration’s decision to scrap plans to build a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe further frustrated Griffith, according to GOP sources, because his district contains the base for Boeing’s ground-based missile defense research.

Ironically, a National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman called Griffith a “woefully ineffective advocate for Tennessee Valley jobs” after the decision was announced in September.

Signs of Griffith’s dissatisfaction with his party began to surface publicly during the summer recess, when he received an earful of criticism from constituents.

In August — one month after Republicans picked up his former state legislative seat in a special election — Griffith told a local newspaper that he wouldn't vote for Nancy Pelosi to remain as House Speaker because she's too divisive. He joked that if she didn’t like it, he’d provide her with a gift certificate to a mental health center.

He added that if the Democratic leadership wouldn't commit to working in a more bipartisan manner, "perhaps we should look at altering that."

Later that month, he was booed at a town hall forum, even though he said he was against his leadership’s version of health care reform.

“If I'm agreeing with you, don't fight me," Griffith said to a heckler, according to the Huntsville Times. "I'm on your team."

After the November off-year elections, he told POLITICO that he wanted to be called an independent Blue Dog and not a Democrat. He said the point of the elections was clear: “I should be nervous.”

Democratic pollster John Anzalone, an Alabama native, said that Griffith would have faced a difficult re-election, and undoubtedly was worried about his prospects in a conservative district.

“This is never a pleasant thing… you never can really figure out the motivation. Usually, it’s political opportunism. Parker Griffith can win as a Democrat, but it’s easier to win as a Republican,” said Anzalone. “When you run as a Southern Democrat, you run because you have a certain principle of being with the party of the people. You know what you’re getting into, there’s no surprise on the legislative side. It’s a political calculation.”

Several Republicans have already stepped forward to challenge Griffith, and it’s not clear whether they’ll drop their bids in light of his party switch. Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks has already raised more than $100,000 for the campaign, while Navy veteran Les Phillip also is running.

Brooks's campaign manager, Bruce Tucker, told POLITICO he would remain in the race and called Griffith's move “a desperate political move.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will now have to scramble to find a candidate to run against Griffith before Alabama’s April 2 filing deadline.

Though it has never elected a Republican to Congress, Griffith’s seat has a long conservative tradition and has backed Democrats who have a brand independent from the national party. As a result of the district’s Democratic heritage, Democrats still hold the majority of state legislative seats within the 5th Congressional District’s boundaries.

The district, however, is trending Republican: A wave of new residents is moving into the Huntsville suburbs, where the area’s burgeoning aerospace and defense industries have created a miniboom. And those voters, with fewer ties to the area’s past politics, have been reliably Republican at the national level.

The district gave John McCain a resounding 61 percent of the vote last year — a tick above the 60 percent President George W. Bush won in 2004.

Even so, last year Griffith managed a narrow win against the strong drag at the top of the ticket in one of the nastiest House races in the nation. He defeated Republican Wayne Parker 51 percent to 48 percent, despite heavy GOP spending against him.

The National Republican Congressional Committee poured in $514,000 to air ads attacking Griffith, including one that suggested he was soft on Islamic terrorism.

And the committee raised questions about whether Griffith engaged in medical malpractice when it released decades-old documentation accusing his cancer center of underdosing patients with radiation so that he could collect more money.

Griffith is the first House Democrat to switch parties since Rep. Rodney Alexander (R-La.) changed parties in 2004. The most recent member of Congress to switch parties is Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.), who announced his decision in April.

Griffith’s predecessor, former nine-term Rep. Bud Cramer, had been frequently mentioned as a possible party-switcher — and also as a possible appointee in the Bush administration — but he retired from Congress as a Democrat.

Griffith now has $619,000 in the bank to run as a Republican, a total boosted by contributions from several of the Democratic Party’s more liberal leaders. The political action committee of House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer donated $10,000 to Griffith’s reelection this year, and even Pelosi chipped in $4,000 — prior to Griffith's August remarks.





Republicans Embrace Parker Griffith


Republicans who desperately wanted to beat Alabama Democratic Rep. Parker Griffith next year are loving him today.

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) touted Griffith as a “dedicated public servant who has consistently put the best interests of his constituents first.” Pete Sessions, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Griffith is putting the “interests of his constituents ahead of Nancy Pelosi’s reckless ideological agenda.” Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) says Griffith is ready to “stand and fight” with his new party.

Even the top Senate Republican felt compelled to tout Griffith as a sign of things to come, saying the defection represents “growing evidence of the unacceptability of this national Democratic agenda in much of red state America.” But Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who told reporters Tuesday he grew up in Griffith’s district, said the divide is wider than just traditionally Republican enclaves.

“As you’ve seen the public opinion polls on health care bill, it’s not just red-state America where the health care bill is unpopular; it's in blue-state America as well,” McConnell said.

Boehner had been in talks with Griffith about switching parties, and today the Alabama lawmaker became the 178th Republican in the House.

“House Republicans will continue to offer the American people better solutions to address their everyday challenges, an effort that will surely benefit from Congressman Griffith’s leadership,” Boehner said in a press release.

House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence (R-Ind.) said the “historic decision should send a deafening message that the Obama-Pelosi agenda of borrowing, spending, bailouts and takeovers is being rejected by the American people.”



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Sources: Politico, Google Maps

GOP Comeback Watch: Decision 2010

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What's Next For The "Party of No"?


The GOP’s strategy failed to derail health-care reform, now all but certain to pass. Reihan Salam on how Republicans can turn their opposition to political advantage—and clean up in 2010.

Plus, our Big Fat Story presents six takes on the CBO's health-care math.

Though Congress hasn't passed health-care reform legislation just yet, Senate Democrats have cleared what many believe to be the highest hurdle by getting all 60 members of the caucus to unite behind the Reid bill. So while congressional Republicans will continue to maneuver, we can safely say that President Obama has all but achieved his most vitally important legislative goal.

If the final legislation looks anything like the Reid bill, it will most likely prove a very grave and very expensive mistake, one that depends on a number of rosy scenarios coming to pass. But for most Democrats, the flaws in the legislation are immaterial. The key goal was to establish the principle that the federal government is responsible for covering all Americans, and that's happened.

In a sense, the Democrats have finally avenged the death of Bill Clinton's bid for universal coverage, which set in motion the 1994 Republican congressional takeover and all that followed. Even Evan Bayh, the moderate Democratic senator from Indiana who is far from a party loyalist, reportedly couldn't stand the thought of Republicans gloating over the defeat of health-care reform the second time around. All of the wonky debates you've heard about the virtues and the limits of the various proposals were ultimately a sideshow.

There were better and cheaper ways to get to universal coverage, but they all involved alienating a powerful Democratic constituency. Think of the last few months as "Health Care II: Liberalism Strikes Back" and you'll have a better understanding of what was really going on. This must be a sweet, sweet victory for Democrats with long memories.

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But there's one small problem. While Sen. Ben Nelson is on board, thanks in part to a sweetheart deal for the good people of Nebraska, a majority of voters aren't. The latest Rasmussen survey finds 55 percent opposed and 41 percent in favor. And of course the opposition isn't spread evenly across the map.

The President's numbers have been particularly weak among non-college-educated whites, among whom only a third believe that health-care reform will make a positive difference in their lives, according to a poll sponsored by the Kaiser Family Foundation.

These voters are heavily represented in the swing districts that Republicans need to take back the House. One can imagine the Republicans running a scorched-earth campaign calling for a complete rollback of health-care reform, but that's unlikely. The Obama White House is going to pivot to push its spending-driven jobs agenda to blunt the most effective line of attack from the right, namely that private-sector job growth remains extremely weak.

Democrats will keep on attacking Republicans as the "Party of No." But as voters grow increasingly skeptical of Obama's scattershot efforts to remake the American economy, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

Republicans running in 2010 will have to build an agenda centered on spurring job growth. Among other things, candidates could call for using stimulus funds to fund payroll-tax relief and an expanded investment tax credit. This agenda should also include proposals for trimming entitlement spending, but it probably won't.

During the debate over health-care reform, congressional Republicans emerged as the most dogged defenders of the Medicare status quo.

In part, this reflects the fact that those non-college-educated voters who aren't thrilled with President Obama are the same swing voters who weren't thrilled with President Bush's calls for reforming Social Security. A large and growing number of Republican voters consider the middle-class welfare state LBJ built to be as American as apple pie.

This poses a serious problem for tax-cutting Conservatives over the long run. But it's not going to get resolved in 2010.

What Republicans can offer is a check on overreaching Democrats, and that might be more than enough.


Sources: The Daily Beast, MSNBC, Morning Joe Show, Today Show

GOP Warn Dems Of Climate Bill Political Backlash In 2010

GOP Warns Of Harsh Climate On Energy Bill


Senate Republicans warned Monday that the bruising fight over health care reform could deliver a knockout blow to another Democratic priority: passage of a climate change bill in 2010.

With a united Democratic Caucus, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was able to get to cloture on health care without a single GOP vote. But Democrats aren’t united on climate change, and the bitter battle over health care has left even sympathetic Republicans with little desire to help — a dynamic that would likely doom the bill to legislative failure.

“It makes it hard to do anything because of the way this was handled,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

Graham didn’t elaborate, but he didn’t have to — the fierce partisan fights during the past few weeks have torn away at the Senate’s clubby decorum, raising temperatures, fraying nerves and creating what one Democratic senator has called a “very high” level of distrust among members.

Graham’s words carry serious weight with supporters of climate change legislation because the South Carolina Republican has emerged as a leader on the issue in the Senate, working with Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) on a bipartisan bill.

Other potentially “gettable” Republican senators also sounded discouraging notes Monday.

“Right now, I would say that cap and trade is stalled,” said Maine Sen. Susan Collins.

“Cap and trade has been delayed by the health care debate almost indefinitely,” said Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar. “The question will be how many more battles members of Congress want to take on in an election year.”

“I give it a very low chance,” said Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a potential GOP target for bill supporters. “What it comes down to is our ability to work together as a body. And right now, the indicators are not very positive for climate change.”

Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) equivocated over the weekend, when asked whether Democrats could pass a climate bill next year. But Kerry — one of only two senators to attend this month’s U.N. climate conference in Copenhagen — lashed out at naysayers Monday, saying the Senate would deliver on the promises President Barack Obama made there.

“Not a chance in hell that after the president put American prestige on the line in Copenhagen that the Senate is going to give this issue anything less than a major push,” Kerry said. “This is big — big — bigger than any individual agenda. Big. The 111th Congress is not a one-trick pony incapable of tackling more than one big issue, and the cost of tackling climate change would only grow if the Senate got weak-kneed and kicked the can down the road. Not going to happen.”

As Kerry noted, House members put themselves on the line when they approved a climate bill earlier this year. But the health backlash is only the latest roadblock in the Senate, and it’s not at all clear that supporters will be able to clear all — or even any — of them.

“It will take a lot of work,” said Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.). “We need to take a break around here and step back before we try anything of any controversy.”

The bill has scheduling issues: Climate ranks at the end of a long list of Democratic priorities for 2010, behind both a jobs bill and financial reform. It has international issues: The contentious negotiations in Copenhagen provide little, if any, boost for a bill back home.

And it has caucus unity issues.

Manufacturing-state Democrats are demanding border tariffs to protect energy-intensive industries from unfair foreign competition.

“If we don’t do this right, a company in Lima, Ohio, shuts down and moves to Wuhan, and we lose jobs,” said Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown.

And the sweeteners necessary to get Republicans on board — like expanding off-shore drilling and adding incentives for nuclear energy — could alienate liberal Democrats worried about the environmental impacts.

“The drilling would be very hard for me,” said New Jersey Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg. “Because even if they agree not to drill off the coast of New Jersey, that doesn’t protect us from the coast of Virginia, Delaware or other places.”

A handful of Democrats want to dump the cap-and-trade concept entirely.

Earlier this month, Collins and Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) released legislation that would replace cap and trade with a system that would offer direct consumer rebates to offset increased energy costs.

Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) has been pushing to move energy legislation that passed the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee in June — and leave behind the cap-and-trade proposal he opposes.

“We’re going to have wasted a year, in my judgment,” he said. “My hope is when the calendar turns and January comes, we’ll have the opportunity to be able to grab and seize the progress that was made in the energy committee.”

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have pronouced dead a climate bill introduced earlier this year by Kerry and Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairwoman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), because of the partisan way it passed through Boxer’s committee. Instead, Kerry, Graham and Lieberman have been getting input from members across the Senate as they attempt to craft a bipartisan climate bill. The legislation must contain the right trade-offs to satisfy the long list of regional energy, economic and employment issues raised by Democratic lawmakers.

At the same time, they are trying to figure out how to steer their proposal through tricky procedural hurdles. At least two more committees — Finance and Commerce, Science and Transportation — plan to mark up portions of the sweeping bill. And the Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee, which also has jurisdiction over the legislation, is headed by Arkansas Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln, a moderate who’s called cap and trade “a real problem.”

And other key Democrats have their own list of issues with the bill.

“I’m not one of those who stands against the climate bill, but I want to see it happen in a way that’s fair and gives West Virginia a chance to survive,” said West Virginia Democratic Sen. John Rockefeller, who wants billions in additional funding for new coal technologies.

But not everyone was so dour Monday. Iowa Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin said the health care fight has taught Democrats that they can be “cohesive” and work together despite their differences. “What we’ve done here strengthens us for next year,” he said.


Sources: Politico