GOP To Pick Up 21+ Seats In November; Decision 2010

21 House Seats Move Toward GOP



After a recent quarterly overview of all of U.S. House races across the country, we moved 21 House seats toward the Republicans. On top of that, Republicans gained Alabama's 5th District when Cong. Parker Griffith switched to the GOP before Christmas. His seat moved from Lean Democratic to Currently Safe for the GOP.

We moved only one seat toward the Democrats (New York's 23rd). Despite recent GOP retirements in California's 19th District (George Radanovich) and South Carolina's 1st District (Henry Brown), the two seats don't make our list at this point.

And as we said in our latest overview, substantial Republican gains now look almost inevitable, with net Democratic losses likely to exceed a dozen. While Democratic control of the House is not yet at risk, losses of 15-20 seats are likely, and that target range could well grow with additional Democratic retirements and voter anger. Griffith's switch means Republicans net 40 seats for the majority.

Here are our latest House ratings:

#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Pure Toss-Up (2 R, 13 D)

* AL 2 (Bright, D)
* CO 4 (Markey, D) *
* FL 8 (Grayson, D)
* ID 1 (Minnick, D)
* IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
* MD 1 (Kratovil, D)
* MS 1 (Childers, D)
* NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
* NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
* OH 1 (Driehaus, D)
* OH 15 (Kilroy, D)
* PA 6 (Open; Gerlach, R)
* PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
* TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D)
* WA 3 (Open; Baird, D) *


Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (1 R, 4 D)

* KS 3 (Open; Moore, D) *
* LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
* NM 2 (Teague, D)*
* VA 5 (Perriello, D)*
* WA 8 (Reichert, R)

Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 3 D)

* FL 24 (Kosmas, D)
* IL 14 (Foster, D)
* MI 7 (Schauer, D)

Lean Republican (1 R, 1 D)

* CA 3 (Lungren, R)
* TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D) *

Lean Democratic (0 R, 9 D)

* AR 2 (Snyder, D) *
* HI 1 (Open; Abercrombie, D) * Special Election
* MO 4 (Skelton, D) *
* NV 3 (Titus, D) *
* NY 19 (Hall, D) *
* NY 23 (Owens, D) #
* NY 24 (Arcuri, D)
* NY 29 (Massa, D)
* VA 2 (Nye, D) *

Republican Favored (8 R, 0 D)

* CA 44 (Calvert, R) *
* CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
* MN 3 (Paulsen, R)
* MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
* NE 2 (Terry, R)
* OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
* OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
* PA 15 (Dent, R)

Democrat Favored (2 R, 16 D)

* AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
* AR 1 (Berry, D) *
* CA 47 (Sanchez, D)
* DE A-L (Open; Castle, R)
* GA 8 (Marshall, D)
* IN 9 (Hill, D) *
* IA 3 (Boswell, D) *
* LA 2 (Cao, R)
* NY 20 (Murphy, D)
* NC 8 (Kissell, D)
* OH 16 (Boccieri, D) *
* OH 18 (Space, D)
* PA 10 (Carney, D)
* PA 11 (Kanjorski, D) *
* SC 5 (Spratt, D) *
* SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D) *
* TX 17 (Edwards, D)
* WI 8 (Kagen, D) *

Total seats in play: 60

Republican seats: 14
Democratic seats: 46


Sources: Rothenberg Political Report, The Daily Beast, MSNBC