(Sheila Crump Johnson, Democrat, Co-founder of Black Entertainment Television, local Middleburg Business owner, Noted philanthropist and Entrepreneur, recently endorsed Republican Bob McDonnell in his campaign for governor.)
(Media folks assume most people know At-Large Charlotte City Council members/ 2009 Mayoral Candidates John Lassiter (Republican) and Anthony Foxx (Democrat). Experts say that's not the case at all.)
Dems ponder drop in black voter turnout
Democrats are bracing for a precipitous drop in black voter turnout next month and beyond.
Alarms are being rung about just how many African-Americans will vote without President Barack Obama on the ballot, and the New Jersey and Virginia governors’ races in three weeks will provide the first major test since the 2008 election.
A recent Washington Post survey estimated the black turnout in Virginia’s governor’s race at 12 percent, which would be about a 40 percent drop from last year’s general election. Other polling has shown both its and New Jersey’s black population unmoved about the off-year election.
The question at this point isn’t so much whether black voters will turn out at 2008 levels, but how big the drop will be — and then, whether it carries into the 2010 midterms.
Tom Jensen, a spokesman for the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, has been among the most outspoken. He said the high number of Democrats with districts that are significantly black means such a turnout shift could be disastrous for Democrats.
“If what looks like is going to happen in Virginia plays out on a national level, I do think Democrats will lose the House,” Jensen said.
“We really don’t find that many people who voted Democratic in 2008 are switching sides; they’re just becoming complacent,” he added. “And that’s particularly true with black Democrats, which is the party’s most dependable voter bloc.”
Virginia is about 20 percent black, and New Jersey is about 14 percent black. Both percentages are higher than the 12 percent national average. And in both states, polling shows the race could come down to the final days.
David Bositis, an expert on black turnout at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, said not too much should be read into the results on Nov. 3, because the two campaigns are unique. While Virginia Democrat Creigh Deeds has virtually no connection to the black community, he said, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) has made plenty of inroads with African-Americans over the years.
Whatever the case, he said, the stretch run in both states is sure to feature plenty of black outreach, and then the party will have to confront the problem going forward.
“It’s going to be a stretch to say that what happens in Virginia will, in any way, be telling about next year,” he said. “But it definitely is something they are going to be concerned about in terms of 2010.”
While others might view the state as a foreign political universe, though, the commonwealth features at least two Democratic freshmen who could train a keen eye on the turnout models in the governor’s race.
Reps. Tom Perriello and Glenn Nye both rode into Washington in districts that are nearly one-quarter black. Nye won by 5 percent, while Perriello won by fewer than 1,000 votes.
The third freshman Democrat in the state’s delegation, Rep. Gerry Connolly has a 10 percent African-American district. He said he, Nye and Perriello will be watching the results, but that it’s a yearly exercise in the state to re-evaluate the electorate.
He noted that not only are black voters expected to drop significantly, but so is another key Democratic voter group: young adults.
“That’s a huge change in the composition of the electorate. That’s not easily made up on the run,” Connolly said. “So, yeah, we’re watching the electorate, but this is not a new phenomenon in Virginia.”
Many other freshman Democrats come from districts with black populations similar in size to Nye’s and Perriello’s, including Alabama Reps. Bobby Bright and Parker Griffith, North Carolina Rep. Larry Kissell and Ohio Rep. Steve Driehaus. Many of the rest come from districts with about 10 percent black populations, like Connolly’s.
“It’s going to be hard to get African-Americans to vote without Obama, but there’s going to be lower turnout across the board,” said a consultant who works with candidates in the former group.
The limited evidence so far is a little frightening for Democrats. Apart from the voter models in Virginia’s governor’s race, Louisiana Democrats lost two December House races in significantly black districts — including one in majority-black New Orleans. And Georgia Democrats saw Senate nominee Jim Martin lose to Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) by 15 percentage points in a December runoff, after losing by just three points the month before.
All three losses were attributed, in significant part, to drops in black turnout.
Emory University Professor Merle Black said that, much like with Deeds and Corzine, it can depend on how much a candidate has to offer black voters, and that’s what Democrats will have to work on.
“There were efforts to turn them out [in the Senate runoff], but the main driving force is whether voters think candidates are going to do something for them,” Black said. “The difference between Obama and Martin was a chasm. The real election was in November.”
READER'S COMMENTS:
Ont thing liberals and democrats do not want to recognize is that Blacks vote for Black candidates and Black issues exclusively. Their block vote is something that democrats have "BOUGHT" through giving them something. When these voters finally realize that they have been taken for a ride, the love affair will be over. Blackwater Ken on 10/14/2009 at 09:14
Oh my God…blacks voting for black candidates regardless of the candidates experience or even criminal record (mayor Berry, Washington D.C.), I AM SHOCKED!! Blacks voting against even the teachings of their faiths and for the candidates that will enact programs to enslave another generation in the welfare snare?? Blacks voting (nearly 100%) for a man whose lineage is only partially African for president? I guess in this case the old "one drop" rule is ironically enforced these days by black Americans…for shame. Dr. M on 10/14/2009 at 10:00
As a mature (over 60) black voter, I'm sorry that Americans think that all of us have been fooled or bought off. I love this country. I love the fact that when we are wrong, we admit it. I have accepted the genuine apology of those who feel that slavery was wrong and then re-enslaved us with welfare. I am sorry that those in power believe that more welfare is the answer. Poison is poison, I hope our community learns to be self sufficient and free. Obama should be able to unite us. He seems more interested in uniting his power base. There are a lot of young black voters who were excited at the possibilities of a black president, who are now becoming cynical. You can't blame blacks for wanting hope. This is clearly not the hope we were looking for. grey deitrich on 10/14/2009 at 11:06
Neglecting one issue. Voter registration. More blacks and young voters registered in 2008, hence there will be more of them available to vote. Persons who have voted before are more likely to vote again. While turnout may be lower, it may not be as low as some are predicting. It will be interesting to watch. Al, KS on 10/14/2009 at 11:06
AA should and must turn out and defend President Obama's if we want to see his vision and policies enacted otherwise they shouldn't be complaining about Lardbaugh's racist vitriol. Because now is the easy part, the country I fear will become more obstructionist if the dastardly Repukes ever get a chance to gain any seats in the next election. They are a party of N-O, disaster (witness 8 years of Bush and GOOP control) and WARS, against Iran, Iraq, and all of Israel's enemies. Nazim Hussein on 10/14/2009 at 11:25
Wait 'till they find out the FREE health care isn't free. Discouraged on 10/14/2009 at 11:36
The playbook of the progressives. Stop free speech by name calling. Attack the person, not the opinion. No opinion is valid but mine. The posting would be funny if it wasn't so sad. Is there any hope of uniting? NH doesn't want it. No one else matters. Just as long as he gets what he wants. Like little children, take your ball and go home. Grey on 10/14/2009 at 11:40
Nazim,Thanks for the positive message of hope and change. I am sure your words of issue-driven intellect will pursuade thousands. Thanks for not engaging in bitter, vitriolic attacks not grounded in any principle other than ideological hatred. The Democrat Party is very fortunate to have you their side. Brian on 10/14/2009 at 11:45
It seems to me if white voters voted for white people the way black voters vote for black people, we would all be deemed racists. Blacks need to wake up and realize that they are being taken advantage of by the dumbocratic party. The Dums simply pay off the blacks to be their slave voters. Blacks wake up and refuse to be their lackeys any longer! Mark on 10/14/2009 at 11:51
Based on a billboard that I recently snapped a photo of, I pointed out an incredible example of just how accurate the claim that Democrats are fearful of how a drop off in the African-American vote will negatively effect their elections. The photo shows billboards purchased by New Jersey Democrat Governor Jon Corzine. They simply show a picture of President Obama with Corzine standing behind and to the side of him. The caption reads "Keep It Going". This billboard is being displayed in predominantlt Africa-American neighborhoods and it does nothing other than try to tie the unpopular, uninspiring Governor to the overwhelmingly popular President, who is obviously a particularly inspiring figure among African-Americans. Tieing one to popular figures is not new but Corzine has based his entire campaign on nothing other than Barack Obama. This billboard just demonstrates that fact all the more. Below, I am attempting to post the image of that billboard. I do not know if html will translate on this platform but I will try it. If it does not, you can follow the link below to see the billboard in question.http://politics247.wordpress.com/2009/10/06/new-jerseys-race-for-governor-an-unbelievably-pathetic-political-exercise/(If the html does not translate, please excuse the exposed code that will show up in its place) Kempite on 10/14/2009 at 12:15
The real path to health care reform should begin with tort reform. It's the lawyers that drive up health care cost. The behemoth insurance corporations you talk about make about 3 - 4% profit. When lawyers make tons of money by suing the health industry, who do you think pays? Adding millions of people to the health insurance policies who don't pay in. And running off good doctors that can make more money by becoming a pet doctor, is not the answer. It's all supply and demand. Low supply of doctors for a larger supply of customers will only drive the cost up. Force them to take less and they will move to greener pastures. MARK X on 10/14/2009 at 12:17
It amazes me that people think that Black voters are so ignorant. Since when do we ONLY go to the polls when there is a black candidate. For the record, ignorant people, regardless of race, make ignorant choices… Let's not run down the line of all the bad choices white people (especially our recent former president) have made and how those choices have affected our country. It's so easy to point at the actions of others while totally ignoring your own flaws. Democrats AND Republicans use their respective constituency as pawns in a super-selfish political game that usually helps very few. say what? on 10/14/2009 at 15:05
There is ANOTHER element that 'The Hill' and Democrats are forgetting. That is the elderly. They tend to vote more for Democrats because they got SUCKED into the trap of, "The GOP wants to cut your social security and medicare".Well? The Democrats ARE going to cut the elderly Medicare. And more and more seniors are SEEING that! And two things about seniors, 1. We go to bed early, 2. WE VOTE, in fact we count more in off year elections than any other group. Say GOODBYE to the Democrat hold in congress…The NIGHTMARE will be over Nov. 3, 2010. Old Guy on 10/14/2009 at 15:18
How much is race a factor in the Foxx - Lassiter race?
Just before Election Day, the race for Charlotte mayor appears all tied, according to two recent polls.
Republican John Lassiter and Democrat Anthony Foxx are tied at 45-45, according to a poll from Public Policy Polling in Raleigh. A poll from Cornerstone Solutions shows Lassiter with a 42-37 lead, but that is within the margin of error, meaning the poll shows "essentially a dead heat," said Chris Sinclair, a partner with Cornerstone.
The PPP poll broke down largely along racial lines. White voters back Lassiter 63-29 while Foxx leads among black voters 80-9. That suggests that the outcome could hinge on turnout, particularly the racial breakdown of people who go to the polls.
"If excitement about the possibility of the city having its first black Mayor since the '80s results in African Americans turning out at a higher rate than whites Foxx will win. But black turnout has tended to lag in local elections and if that turns out to be the case Lassiter is the likely winner," PPP's Tom Jensen says on his organization's blog.
PPP has done work for Democratic candidates, but was not hired by the Foxx campaign and has had one of the better track records among polling organizations over at least the past year.
Cornerstone, a GOP-leaning firm in Raleigh, has not been hired by either campaign either. Its poll showed Lassiter winning about 25 percent of likely black voters.
READER'S COMMENTS:
FULFILLMENT said: Wow. It really is sad how this nation appears to be segregating their votes to only specific individuals of a particular skin color. Shameful really.
FAVOR said: My vote my choice. Like it or not, I vote how I want and for whom I want. Fulfillment, you need to mind your business and stop worrying about others.
FLY-SWATTER said: This type of pedestrian thinking is keeping our society behind on many levels.
KARL said: Keith Larson had a great guest on today. He was a black man who wrote a book called "What White People Want to Know About Black People." In essence his position was that no matter what your race is, if you make a judgement/decision based solely on a person's skin color, you are a racist - plain and simple.
KELLY said: Karl, it's really not that simple. To truly be a racist, there inherently has to be some "power" aspect included. Racism is not merely hating another race. A true racist has to be able to assert some oppressive power over the race because of that hate. And by the way, love for one's own race does not inherently mean that person hates all others.
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Sources: The Hill, McClatchy Newspapers, Charlotte Observer, Public Policy Polling, Cornerstone Polls, Flickr, Youtube, Google Maps
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