Karzai Welcomes Then Slams Western Assistance, Is He Crazy?

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Hamid Karzai Takes On The Taliban


Relations between Washington and Kabul have become more tense recently, after two public attacks by Afghan President Hamid Karzai against western involvement in his country.

Just what has got into the Afghan president? Why is he attacking US President Barack Obama so much, when, in fact, compared to George Bush, Obama has been more committed to Afghanistan, both financially and militarily. Is it possible that Karzai has already given up on the west?

Has he decided to place his lot with regional countries such as Pakistan, and America's rivals such as Iran and the Chinese instead? After all, the US is scheduled to start pulling its troops out of Afghanistan from July 2011.

The British and the Canadians also seem to be planning a withdrawal starting from 2011. And the recent offensive in Marja is already facing severe setbacks, little more than a month after it started.

These are all valid concerns. Even though the apparent target of Karzai's attack sits thousands of miles away, if we look closely we can see that his real target audience is within his borders. Karzai is trying to improve his image internally, especially with the Taliban.

How is he doing that? By attacking the west, which he blames for handing control of Afghanistan's electoral watchdog to the UN. He wants to transfer it to the Afghan government. He knows that this issue is popular with the Taliban, who have accused him of being a western stooge.

But why should he care about the Taliban when they are attacking his own forces?

The reason is that one of Karzai's strategies, which he also made into a pre-election pledge, is that he sees negotiations with the Taliban as an ultimate winning strategy to bring peace. He eventually wants to bring them on to his side by coming to some sort of agreement.



The last Iraqi government did the same with Muqtada al-Sadr's forces. Nouri al-Maliki launched an all-out assault against the Mahdi army in March 2008. Once Sadr agreed to a ceasefire Maliki allowed his party to run for elections. In fact, if Maliki is asked to form the next Iraqi government, his State of Law alliance may well enter into a coalition government with Sadr's Iraqi National Alliance.

What puzzles some strategists about Karzai's behaviour is why now? Surely he would have a stronger negotiating position if he first waits for the Taliban to suffer heavy casualties from the new Nato assault and then approaches them for talks. That way he would stand a better chance of reaching an accord on his term.

To try and approach the Taliban by making himself look anti-American now while the Taliban are strong and he is politically and militarily weak – as is currently the case – could have the opposite effect.

What could be an important reason behind his timing is that Karzai feels Pakistan is undermining his efforts to start a rapprochement with the Afghan Taliban. This concern stems from the recent arrest of senior Taliban members by Pakistan.

At any other time, Karzai would have been happy about these arrests. He has been asking the Pakistani government for years to stop supporting his arch enemies.

However, things are now different. What the general public did not know about until recently is that the UN, with the presence of senior representatives of Karzai had been secretly meeting with the Taliban for more than a year. The meetings were held in Dubai, where the Taliban members flew in from the hideouts in Pakistan.

And then, all of a sudden, Pakistan recently started to arrest senior Afghan Taliban leaders. First was the deputy commander, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. He was arrested in Karachi on 17 February. By 4 March four other senior Taliban leaders were also arrested by the Pakistani government.

These arrests destroyed months of careful confidence building. Although the two sides had not started negotiating yet, these "talks about talks" were the most genuine home-produced Afghan strategy to solve the country's own problems between its own people – without interference from any foreign government.

Pakistan's arrests of Afghan Taliban leaders put a stop to that, and now Karzai is in a rush to repair the damage, by launching verbal attacks against Americans. He seems so adamant that he is now even threatening the west that he himself would be compelled to bring the Taliban into his government if his wishes regarding the transfer of the country's electoral watchdog to the Afghan government are not met.

One factor likely to continue frustrating Karzai's efforts to find stability at home is the fact that the handle for the door of peace in Afghanistan is to be found in Pakistan. Some people believe that it can be retrieved with a compromise solution where both Afghan and Pakistani interests are included.

Others believe that Pakistan has no interest in handing it over until all its conditions are met and Afghanistan becomes its subservient client state. There are far more people who believe the latter than the former. Judging by recent events, they seem to be right.


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US Envoy Strongly Objects To Troop Surge Unless Karzai Steps Up...Another Excuse Or Wise Decision?

Obama seeking more options in Afghanistan. President Obama sent his war council back to the drawing board Thursday to come up with new options for a possible troop increase. NBC's Brian Williams reports.

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What's Pres. Obama's Mission on the ground?

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U.S. Envoy objects to US Troop increase


The U.S. envoy in Afghanistan, a former Army general who once commanded troops in the country, has objected strongly to emerging plans to send tens of thousands of additional forces to the country, a senior U.S. official said Wednesday.

Ambassador Karl Eikenberry resigned his Army commission to take the job as U.S. ambassador in Kabul earlier this year, and his is an influential voice among those advising President Barack Obama on Afghanistan. Eikenberry sent multiple classified cables to Washington over the past week that question the wisdom of adding forces when the Afghan political situation is unstable and uncertain, said an official familiar with the cables. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal administration deliberations and the classified documents.

Cables are diplomatic messages that may or may not be classified and carry greater heft than other forms of communication such as e-mail.

Eikenberry made the point that the administration should step cautiously in planning for any troop buildup while there are still so many questions surrounding Afghan President Hamid Karzai, the official said. Eikenberry is the front line U.S. official dealing with Karzai, the U.S.-backed leader whose administration was stained by corruption and mismanagement.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Thursday that she is concerned about Afghanistan's "corruption, lack of transparency, poor governance (and) absence of the rule of law."

"We're looking to President Karzai as he forms a new government to take action that will demonstrate — not just to the international community but first and foremost to his own people — that his second term will respond the needs that are so manifest," Clinton said during a news conference in Manila with Philippine Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo.

Wild Card

It was a visiting senior senator, Democrat John Kerry, who was instrumental in persuading Karzai last month to accept the findings of a U.N. panel that his re-election vote in August was too marred by fraud to stand.

Karzai agreed to a second round of voting but was elevated to a second term as president without a runoff election when his challenger dropped out. Since then, U.S. officials have been alarmed at some of Karzai's remarks and the lack, so far, of meaningful steps to clean house.

Eikenberry's objections were a wild card in the midst of what had appeared to be the final days of Obama's long decision-making process on how to revamp U.S. strategy in the 8-year war. Eikenberry has participated in some of Obama's war council sessions over the past several weeks.

A senior U.S. official told The Associated Press that Obama rejected all four options presented

to him at what had been expected to be the last of those sessions Wednesday. Those options started from the premise that some addition of U.S. forces is necessary, and included ways that Obama could meet or nearly meet war commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal's preference for about 40,000 additional troops.

It is not clear whether Eikenberry's objections played a part in Obama's decision not to accept any of the choices prepared by military planners Wednesday.

At his Senate confirmation hearing in March, Eikenberry underscored what he called the urgency of the requirement to turn around the war effort, which has evolved into a stalemate in key parts of Afghanistan as the Taliban-led insurgency has gained clout.

"Time is of the essence," Eikenberry said. "There will be no substitute for more resources and sacrifice."

He said Europeans, for example, should be expected to provide more mentors for Afghan police trainees. Another key to success, he said, is getting more civilian experts such as agriculture specialists and justice experts who can help reduce Afghanistan's dependence on the illicit narcotics trade.

Eikenberry was the top U.S. military commander in Afghanistan for two years before moving to Brussels to be deputy chairman of NATO's military committee in 2007. He had served one previous tour in Afghanistan.



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Americans Are Unknowingly Funding Terrorism...Paying Off Karzai's Taliban

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Karzai's Re-Election Spells Serious Trouble For Afghan War Strategy

(Pres. Obama calls for 'serious effort' on Afghanistan security. NBC's Chief White House Correspondent Chuck Todd offers political analysis of President Barack Obama's stance toward Afghanistan now that President Hamid Karzai has been officially re-elected by default.)

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(Pres. Obama to Pres. Karzai: "Its time for a new chapter.)

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(A Wave of Violence continues in Pakistan.)

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Karzai is wild card for U.S. strategy


As the dust settles from Afghanistan's election, President Hamid Karzai's emergence as the victor by default cements the central dilemma facing President Obama as he decides whether to escalate the U.S. involvement in the war there.

The top U.S. military commander in Afghanistan has proposed a strategy that would require an effective Afghan government to deliver services, support military operations and represent a viable political alternative to the Taliban insurgency. But Karzai's victory leaves in place a mercurial leader who has crossed administration officials in the past and whose record raises doubts about his willingness to take the steps necessary to reform his government.

During weeks of internal deliberations about how to proceed with an increasingly unpopular war, Obama and his senior advisers have waited for the Afghan electorate to determine who will be their next partner in Kabul, even deciding to delay any strategy announcement until after the Nov. 7 runoff vote. Karzai won reelection Monday without a second round after the withdrawal of his chief rival, Abdullah Abdullah, who left the race citing the risk of fraud.

But the decision by Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission to declare Karzai president deprives him of a genuine win at the polls and potentially undermines the Obama administration's goal of building a legitimate government in Kabul, the key to any strategy that emerges from the White House review.

On Monday, Obama called Karzai to congratulate him. "Although the process was messy, I'm pleased to say that the final outcome was determined in accordance with Afghan law," he told reporters at the White House. "But," Obama added, "I emphasized that this has to be a point in time in which we begin to write a new chapter based on improved governance, a much more serious effort to eradicate corruption, joint efforts to accelerate the training of Afghan security forces so that the Afghan people can provide for their own security."

The proposal of Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, includes a request for about 44,000 additional U.S. troops to better protect Afghan population centers from the Taliban.

In his stark 66-page assessment of the war, he wrote that the "center of gravity" of the 100,000 international troops under his command "is the will and ability to provide for the needs of the population 'by, with, and through' the Afghan government."

"A foreign army alone cannot beat an insurgency; the insurgency in Afghanistan requires an Afghan solution," McChrystal wrote. "This is their war and, in the end, ISAF's competency will prove less decisive than GIRoA's." The acronyms stand for the International Security Assistance Force he commands and the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.

The White House is evaluating whether to adopt McChrystal's broad counterinsurgency strategy or a more narrow counterterrorism campaign focused on defeating al-Qaeda, whose leaders and foot soldiers operate in the border areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

A different U.S. president

Since the flawed Aug. 20 vote, the legitimacy of the Afghan government and Karzai's erratic role leading it has played a central part in the discussions, which are expected to continue in coming days when Obama meets for a second time with his Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Obama's senior civilian advisers, including Vice President Biden, are skeptical that Karzai is serious about fighting corruption in his administration or improving the central government's performance sufficiently to win broad support from the Afghan public.

Biden and other administration officials backing the narrower counterterrorism effort have used Karzai's weakness to argue that Obama should not send additional combat forces to Afghanistan. Their plan would maintain the current troop level in the near term, step up the training of Afghan troops, support Pakistan's government in its fight against the Taliban, and attack al-Qaeda operatives in both countries.

Karzai, an elegant and engaging politician who once charmed Washington with his furry hat and cape, grew accustomed to the chummy interactions he had with President George W. Bush during frequent videoconferences and personal visits.

But 10 days before Obama's inauguration, Biden made it clear to Karzai that his interactions with the new president would be very different, telling him he would probably talk to him only "a couple of times a year."

Biden and other Obama advisers believe the relationship that Bush developed with Karzai masked the Afghan leader's flaws and made it difficult to demand accountability. They viewed Karzai as a vacillating leader, and planned to keep him at arm's length until he demonstrated better leadership and addressed the high-level corruption within his government.

Obama's special envoy for Afghanistan, Richard C. Holbrooke, also made little secret in diplomatic circles of his desire to see other candidates emerge to challenge Karzai, which stoked anger in Kabul's presidential palace.

At dinner the day after the Aug. 20 vote, Karzai was exulting in the victory he claimed from early poll results. But Holbrooke refused to endorse Karzai's claim and, presidential aides said, spoke harshly to Karzai and said he believed a runoff would be necessary.

The evening started their relationship on a downward path from which it has not recovered. Holbrooke has not been back since, although he said he expects to visit Kabul within the next few weeks.

Ensuring Legitimacy

Senior administration officials were encouraged last month when Karzai agreed to a second round of voting, which he was widely expected to win, letting him continue as the only president Afghanistan has had since the 2001 U.S. invasion toppled the Taliban government. Administration officials said his agreement was important to ensuring the legitimacy of the election process.

But whether Karzai's victory without a final vote undermines his legitimacy will be decided ultimately by the Afghans themselves. The Karzai administration is already seen in Afghanistan as corrupt, and Obama administration officials have sought to identify local leaders who might serve as more effective partners than the central government.

A senior U.S. official involved in Afghanistan policy, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said the administration will pursue a "two-pronged" approach to improving the quality of government.

Karzai, the official said, will be urged to embrace a "compact with the Afghan people" that would make explicit commitments about local governance, corruption and other important issues. The official said senior members of Obama's national security team are weighing whether to tie the deployment of some additional troops and development resources to Karzai's progress on the compact.

At the same time, the official said, the U.S. government would seek to bypass Karzai by working more closely with members of his cabinet and by funneling more money to local governors. Karzai has the power to appoint and fire provincial governors, and administration officials worry that he will use the authority to remove local officials deemed effective by the United States to reward campaign supporters.

"Will he, for instance, fire the governor of Helmand and replace him with one of his cronies?" the official said. "How can we urge him from doing that? Those are the questions that will be getting more attention now."



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Karzai Officially Named President, Runoff Canceled...He Can't Be Trusted

(Afghan President Karzai declared winner. Election officials declare President Hamid Karzai the winner of Afghanistan’s disputed election. NBC’s Richard Engel reports.)

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Official: Afghanistan cancels runoff election


Afghanistan's chief electoral officer announced Monday that this weekend's planned runoff election has been canceled.

Daoud Ali Najafi gave no details, but a second senior official on the commission also confirmed the second round has been called off.

President Hamid Karzai had already effectively secured a second term when his only challenger, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, dropped out of the race Sunday because he said the vote would not be free or fair. The first round was marred by massive fraud.

Meanwhile, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon made a surprise visit to Afghanistan on Monday and said that the world body's work will continue despite the slayings of U.N. staff in Kabul last week.

Ban told reporters in the capital that "we cannot be deterred, we must not be deterred. ... The work of the United Nations will continue."

Last Wednesday, insurgents stormed a guest house in Kabul where U.N. election workers were staying, killing five U.N. staffers and three Afghans.

On Monday, the world body announced it would suspend long-term development work in areas of Pakistan along the Afghan border because of violence.

Election fraud

It has been more than a month since the Aug. 20 balloting that aimed to strengthen the Afghan government but instead undermined its credibility both at home and with key allies like the United States.

The vote was characterized by rampant ballot-box stuffing, and fraud investigators threw out nearly a third of Karzai's votes. That move dropped Karzai below the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright, forcing the runoff vote.

A bevy of international figures, including U.S. Sen. John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, were involved in convincing Karzai to accept the runoff vote.

U.N. and U.S. representatives were still involved in negotiations with the two about a power-sharing deal as recently as Sunday morning, according to a Western diplomat who was familiar with the talks but spoke anonymously because of the sensitivity of the discussions.

Abdullah has said his decision not to participate in the runoff is final. But in a sign of how much the situation is in flux, a spokesman said Monday that they could be open to still having a second round if it is delayed to put in safeguards to prevent fraud.



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Karzi's Rival To Boycott Run Off Election..Taliban's Comeback

(Abdullah to boycott Afghan runoff? Afghan presidential challenger Abdullah Abdullah may boycott next week's runoff against incumbent Hamid Karzai. NBC's Richard Engel reports.)

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(How the Taliban made a comeback?)

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Karzai rival will boycott runoff, aide says


Afghan presidential challenger Abdullah Abdullah plans to boycott next week's runoff against President Hamid Karzai and instead call for postponement of the vote until the spring, his campaign manager said Saturday.

"As of now" Abdullah plans to call for a boycott during a press conference Sunday, Satar Murad said.

Abdullah will also call for an interim government to run the country until a new, fair vote can be held, Murad said.

The runoff was called after massive fraud in the first round vote on Aug. 20.

A boycott would severely undermine a vote intended to affirm the Afghan government's credibility.

The political stalemate in Kabul comes as President Barack Obama has been meeting with his advisers to try to determine U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, including troop levels. A weakened Afghan government will make it harder for Obama to get public support for his efforts.

October has been the deadliest month for U.S. forces since the 2001 invasion to oust the Taliban. The Afghan war has intensified this year as militants have stepped up attacks and more troops have arrived trying to stabilize the country.

Abdullah, who was once Karzai's foreign minister, put forward several conditions this week to avoid a repeat of the massive fraud of the August presidential election, including the replacement of the top election official and the suspension of several ministers.

He set Saturday as the deadline for his demands to be met.

Breakdown in talks

A Westerner close to talks between the two sides said their agenda also included a power-sharing proposal by the challenger and cited both Karzai and Abdullah as saying that talks broke down Friday, prompting Abdullah to decide on a boycott of the Nov. 7 runoff.

An Afghan figure close to Abdullah said Saturday that the boycott decision came after a contentious and fruitless meeting Thursday over Abdullah's conditions for a runoff.

Both spoke on condition of anonymity, saying that the announcement must come from Abdullah himself.

The Afghan said a boycott was certain, and that Abdullah would likely tell his supporters to simply stay home during the vote.

Afghan electoral law says that any vote cast for a candidate who withdraws will not be counted. However, neither electoral nor the constitution specifically address the issue of a candidate who does not formally withdraw but urges supporters to boycott the polls.

A spokesman for the Afghan election commission said that it is too late for Abdullah to officially withdraw and that a boycott will not prevent the runoff from going forward.

"The election will be held and all procedures will go as normal," Noor Mohammad Noor said.

A Personal Choice

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said a runoff with only one candidate would not necessarily threaten the legitimacy of the process.

"We see that happen in our own country where, for whatever combination of reasons, one of the candidates decides not to go forward," Clinton told reporters in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. "I don't think it has anything to do with the legitimacy of the election. It's a personal choice which may or may not be made."

The runoff election in Afghanistan became necessary after widespread fraud in the first round of voting in August resulted in hundreds of thousands of Karzai's ballots being invalidated, pushing him below the required 50 percent margin to win. Concerns have been raised about a possible repetition of the ballot-box stuffing and distorted tallies in the second round.

Abdullah complained Monday that there were no assurances that the November vote would be fairer than the first balloting and demanded that the head of the Karzai-appointed Independent Election Commission, Azizullah Lodin, be fired.

Even if Abdullah withdraws, it's unclear whether Karzai could be proclaimed the winner or if the runoff would still have to proceed, either with Abdullah on the ballot or the third-place finisher, lawmaker Ramazan Bashardost.

A spokesman for the Afghan election commission said that it is too late for Abdullah to officially withdraw and that a boycott will not prevent the runoff from going forward.

"The election will be held and all procedures will go as normal," Noor Mohammad Noor said.

U.S. officials have been concerned that the second round would expose Afghan civilians to attack by Taliban militants opposed to the election.

Last Wednesday, Taliban attackers killed five U.N. employees — including one American — and three Afghans in a brazen assault on a residential hotel housing international staff in the heart of Kabul. The three attackers also died.

Afghan intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh said Afghan authorities had advance information that a Taliban attack in Kabul was in the works but was expected it during rush hour, and officials were unsure of the target.

Instead, the attackers struck just before dawn. Saleh said eight people had been arrested for their roles in the attack, including an Afghan imam who was apprehended when he arrived by plane in Jiddah, Saudi Arabia.

Saleh said the detainees told interrogators the attackers came from Pakistan's Swat Valley and that the al-Qaida mastermind fled across the border into Pakistan's lawless tribal area, where the al-Qaida leadership is believed hiding.

Casualties have been on the rise since President Barack Obama sent more troops to confront the Taliban.

On Saturday, the NATO-led force announced the latest coalition death in the war. The Canadian Defense Department said the casualty was a 24-year-old Canadian national killed in a bomb blast outside the southern city of Kandahar on Friday.




Pakistan says soldiers close in on Taliban bases

Pakistani soldiers closed in on two major Taliban strongholds in South Waziristan on Saturday, officials said, as government jets pounded insurgent hide-outs and the prime minister said the country had no choice but to defeat the militants.

"We are at war," Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani told a press conference in the city of Peshawar, where a militant car bombing a few days ago killed more than 115 people. "Our civil leadership, our military leadership and political leadership ... we are on the same page that we have to fight the militancy. We do not have any other option because their intentions are to take over" the country.

Pakistan, which years ago helped nurture the Taliban's rise in neighboring Afghanistan, is now involved in an escalating fight with the militants. Two weeks ago, the government launched the offensive in the South Waziristan tribal region, viewed as the main stronghold in the country of both the Taliban and al-Qaida. The offensive has drawn retaliatory militant attacks across Pakistan.

On Saturday, seven paramilitary soldiers driving through the Khyber tribal area were killed in a roadside bomb planted by suspected Taliban militants, said local official Ghulam Farooq Khan. The area is famed for the Khyber pass, the main route for ferrying supplies to U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan.

Mehsud targeted

That attack came as Pakistani jets bombed three hide-outs of Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud in the Orkazai tribal region, killing at least eight militants and wounding several others, intelligence officials said. Another airstrike, about 40 miles from the first and near the Afghan border, killed seven militants in the Kurram tribal region, the officials said.

The veracity of the reports could not be confirmed. Authorities have effectively sealed off the tribal areas, semiautonomous regions where the central government in Islamabad has long had only minimal authority, and it is all but impossible to independently verifying such claims.

Pakistan appears eager to prove that it is moving aggressively against the militants after a three-day visit earlier this week by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Clinton said she found it "hard to believe" that no one in Pakistan's government knew where al-Qaida's leadership was hiding and warned that once the current offensive is finished, "the Pakistanis will have to go on to try to root out other terrorist groups, or we're going to be back facing the same threats."

American officials have long said al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenants accused in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks operate out of the region along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan — a region that includes South Waziristan.

Pakistan has publicly reacted to Clinton's chiding with a mixture of acceptance and resentment.

"If we are honest, we cannot deny that much of what she said was true," The News newspaper said in a Saturday editorial, but added that U.S. policies — like foreign policy anywhere — stem from self-interest.

"There is nothing noble about Washington's focus on Islamabad. But it is possible that at this particular moment in history the interests of both nations coincide," the newspaper said.

Nerve center reached

In South Waziristan, the army said it had surrounded the key Taliban stronghold of Sararogha on three sides and had reached the outskirts of Makeen, which it called "the nerve center" of the Pakistani Taliban.

Government soldiers had killed a total of 33 militants over the past 24 hours, discovered a factory for making roadside bombs and seized a handful of weapons, the army said in its Saturday statement.

Pakistani forces were facing stiff resistance in the village of Kaniguram, with soldiers fighting house to house and taking mortar and sniper fire as they searched for more militants.

Four Pakistani soldiers had been injured in fighting in South Waziristan over the past day, the report said.

In Karachi, police arrested three suspected militants Saturday and seized 65 pounds of explosives and other weaponry. The men were involved in kidnappings for ransom and bank robberies to help fund the Taliban, said senior police officer Fayyaz Khan.

In North West Frontier Province, the local government said it was reopening schools starting Monday, two weeks after schools across the country closed when the offensive set off a string of retaliatory attacks.

"There are (general) security threats, but we will fight back," Mian Iftikhar Husain, the provincial information minister, told reporters in Peshawar. Most of Pakistan's schools reopened last week.



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Afghanistan Election Issues Could Delay Pres. Obama's US Troop Surge Strategy

(Delaying Afghanistan strategy? Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., discusses whether the delay in the Afghanistan elections will affect the timing of President Barack Obama’s decision on troop deployments.)

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(Pres. Obama applauds Afghan leader Karzai's decision to cooperate with the Election Runoff.)

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Afghanistan's Election Commission Orders A Runoff...Fraud Investigation

(What does the runoff mean? A "Morning Joe" panel discusses the implications of today's announcement.)

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(Pressure mounts for an Afghan Election Runoff or Recount.)

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Afghan commission orders election runoff

Afghanistan's election commission Tuesday ordered a Nov. 7 runoff in the disputed presidential poll after a fraud investigation dropped incumbent Hamid Karzai's votes below 50 percent of the total. Karzai accepted the finding and agreed to a second round vote.

The announcement came two months to the day after the first round vote and follows weeks of political uncertainty at a time when Taliban strength is growing.

The chairman of the Independent Election Commission, Azizullah Lodin, said the commission, which organized the Aug. 20 vote, did not want to "leave the people of Afghanistan in uncertainty" any longer.

"The commission is agreed to go to a second round and say that nobody got more than 50 percent," Lodin said. Afghan electoral law says a runoff is needed if no candidate gets above that percentage.

Lodin said all the materials are ready for the Nov. 7 runoff.

Karzai announced his acceptance of the findings at a press conference alongside U.S. Sen. John Kerry and Kai Eide, the head of the U.N. mission in Afghanistan. Kerry said the agreement on a second round had transformed the crisis into a "moment of great opportunity."

Kerry said Karzai "has shown genuine leadership in the decision he has made today."

The decision to accept the fraud findings and move to a run-off showed that Afghanistan "recommits to the democratic process." He complimented Karzai for his "openness to finding ways of resolving differences."

"The international community is 100 percent committed to helping to carry out this election," Kerry said.

Power-sharing deal?

The possibility of a runoff emerged Monday after a U.N.-backed panel threw out a third of Karzai's votes from the Aug. 20 ballot, pushing his totals below the 50 percent threshold needed for a first round victory and setting the stage for a runoff against former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah.

Another election risks the same fraud that derailed the August vote, along with inciting violence and increasing ethnic divisions. A November runoff also could be hampered by winter snows that block off much of the country starting mid-month.

The primary alternative that has been floated is a power-sharing deal, though the form that could take is unclear. And it could take weeks or months to hammer out an agreement between the two rivals.

So, the United States is still far from finding a government it can point to as a legitimate partner in the increasingly violent battle against the Taliban.

In the latest fighting, Afghan and international forces killed about half a dozen militants during a raid on compounds used by a Taliban commander in eastern Wardak province on Tuesday, the U.S. military said in a statement.

A spokesman for the Abdullah campaign said earlier they do not consider a coalition or power-sharing government an acceptable alternative.

"A coalition is against the law and does not benefit the political process of the country," Fazel Sancharaki said, noting that Afghan electoral law has no provisions for such a process.

"If anyone proposes that, they should have very strong reasons for it." He did not elaborate on what reasons might persuade Abdullah to consider such an option.

"Karzai's term is over, we cannot accept him for several more months," he said.

Legitimate government

The agreement that a runoff is required is likely just the first step in negotiations to iron out these differences between the Karzai and Abdullah camps.

The U.S. appears to be backing a power-sharing deal, but there are a number of possible scenarios. In Afghanistan, many have also suggested holding a loya jirga — a traditional Afghan meeting where decisions are made through a combination of negotiation and consensus.

American officials have repeatedly said they're pushing for a "legitimate government" in Afghanistan, which does not necessarily need to be elected. People familiar with the talks have said both Karzai and Abdullah have said privately that they're open to the idea of a coalition, though with very different interpretations of what that would mean and when it could happen.

The Aug. 20 poll was characterized by Taliban attacks on polling stations and government buildings that killed dozens of people. In some areas, militants cut off the ink-marked fingers of people who had voted.

Turnout was dampened during that vote because of threats of violence from the Taliban and many say even fewer people would come out in a runoff.

Despite the danger, some Afghans in the southern city of Kandahar — a Karzai stronghold where many votes ended up thrown out for fraud — said they would prefer a runoff to a coalition government. Karzai is widely expected to prevail in a runoff vote.

Abdur Rahman, who runs a foreign exchange bureau in Kandahar, said a runoff would be difficult, but if there is no other option, the government should organize one.

"We support a runoff, but a new coalition government would not be good for Afghanistan," said 46-year-old Rahman, who voted for Karzai. "Karzai already has a coalition. Why would he make any deal with Abdullah or give him power?"



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Pres. Obama To Denounce Iran's Violence Today...Special Court For Protesters

Huffington Post----

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President Obama's press conference today: looking for questions from Iranians. One of the most rewarding parts of documenting the recent events in Iran has been making contact with the brave people there who are organizing and demonstrating at incredible risk.

Later today, President Obama is holding a news conference at the White House and I'll be attending. If I get called, I want to ask a question that comes directly from an Iranian. We've all spent plenty of time discussing and debating how the President has reacted to the crisis there; it seems only fair that the people on the ground, living right now under great stress and uncertainty, be able to have a question of theirs answered.

The popular Farsi-language social bookmarking site Balatarin has posted our request for questions here, and users there will be able to vote on them. If you're on Twitter, please retweet this post to help get the word out.



Iran Establishes Special Court For Protesters

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TEHRAN, Iran - Iran's rulers stiffened their stance against protesters Tuesday, firmly rejecting demands to annul the election over fraud allegations, and setting up a special court for detained demonstrators, and keeping troops in riot gear on the streets to break up any gatherings.

Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi has been out of sight in recent days and there were no reports of violent clashes Tuesday, possibly a measure of the effectiveness of the crackdown.

However, protesters came up with new techniques, such as turning on the lights in their cars at certain hours of the day and honking their horns or holding up posters.

"People are calmly protesting, more symbolically than with their voices," a Tehran resident said in a telephone interview, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of government retribution.

In recent days, members of the elite Revolutionary Guard, the Basij militia and other security forces in riot gear have been heavily deployed across Tehran, preventing any gatherings and ordering people to keep moving.

Mousavi claims he was the true winner of the June 12 election, but the electoral commission declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won by a landslide.

Live bullets:

Another opposition figure, reformist presidential candidate Mahdi Karroubi, called for a day of mourning for the at least 17 people killed in protests since the election.

In a sign of a growing crackdown, Tehran riot police fired tear gas and live bullets Monday to break up about 200 protesters paying tribute to a young woman, Neda Agha Soltan, whose apparent shooting death was captured on video and circulated worldwide.

Caspian Makan, a 37-year-old photojournalist in Tehran who identified himself as Soltan's boyfriend, said she had not been deterred by the risk of joining protests.

"She only ever said that she wanted one thing, she wanted democracy and freedom for the people of Iran," he told an Associated Press reporter during a telephone call from Tehran.

NBC News reported that another rally in Soltan's memory was scheduled to be held in central Tehran on Tuesday.

Across the world, governments and diplomats were increasingly lining up on opposite sides in the Iranian showdown, the strongest challenge to the rule of Islamic clerics in 30 years.

Brutal repression:

In a boost for the embattled regime, Russia said Tuesday that it respects the declared election result. But France summoned Iran's ambassador to express concern about what it called "brutal repression" of protesters in Tehran.

The U.S. and many European countries have refrained from challenging the election outcome directly, but have issued increasingly stern warnings against continuing violence meted out to demonstrators. U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has demanded an immediate end to "arrests, threats and use of force."

However, the Iranian regime appeared determined to crush the post-election protesters, rather than compromise.

Mousavi has charged massive vote fraud and insisted he is the true winner. However, Iran's top electoral body, Guardian Council, found "no major fraud or breach in the election," a spokesman, Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, was quoted by Press TV as saying Tuesday. "Therefore, there is no possibility of an annulment taking place."

The 12-member council has the authority to annul or validate the election. On Monday, it acknowledged in a rare step that it found voting irregularities in 50 of 170 districts, including vote counts that exceeded the number of eligible voters. Still, it said the discrepancies, involving some 3 million votes, were not widespread enough to affect the outcome.

Iran has 46.2 million eligible voters, one-third of them under 30. The final tally was 62.6 percent of the vote for Ahmadinejad and 33.75 percent for Mousavi, a landslide victory in a race that was perceived to be much closer. The huge margin went against the expectation that the record 85 percent turnout would boost Mousavi.

In another sign of the regime's crackdown, Ebrahim Raisi, a top judicial official, confirmed Tuesday that a special court has been set up to deal with detained protesters.

"Elements of riots must be dealt with to set an example. The judiciary will do that," he was quoted as saying by the state-run radio, which gave no further details. The judiciary is controlled by Iran's ruling clerics.

Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, won crucial backing from Russia on Tuesday, with the foreign ministry in Moscow saying it respects the declared election result. In a statement on its Web site, the ministry said that disputes about the vote "should be settled in strict compliance with Iran's Constitution and law" and are "exclusively an internal matter."

Russia, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, has longtime political and economic ties with Iran where it is helping build a nuclear power plan at Bushehr. In his only trip abroad since the vote, Ahmadinejad traveled to Russia last week for a conference where he was seen prominently shaking hands with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

Many Western democracies, including the U.S., have criticized Iran's campaign to crush dissent.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has called on Iran to recount the votes, but stopped short of alleging electoral fraud. French President Nicolas Sarkozy has been outspoken in his criticism of Iran's response to the demonstrations, but said doors must remain open to continue talks on the country's nuclear program.

Two prominent Iranian opposition figures took their case to Europe on Tuesday.

Iranian Nobel Peace laureate Shirin Ebadi asked EU officials in Brussels not to negotiate or hold meetings with Iranian leaders until the crackdown stops.

In Rome, Iranian filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf held a news conference, saying he had been asked by Mousavi's aides to spread the word on what is happening in Iran. Makhmalbaf said that even if Ahmadinejad manages to govern for the next four years, "he will not have one day of quietness." He said protesters would resort to general strikes and what he called civil resistance.

Iranian leaders have accused the West of meddling in its affairs. Press TV said Tuesday that despite such complaints, the government refused to grant a permit for a protest by university students outside the British embassy in Tehran.

Opposition protests have become smaller, after a huge opposition rally a week ago, though demonstrators have been more willing to confront Iranian troops.

Severe restrictions on reporters have made it almost impossible to independently verify reports on demonstrations, clashes and casualties. Iran has ordered reporters for international news agencies to stay in their offices, barring them from reporting on the streets.

A number of journalists have been detained since the protests began, though there have been conflicting accounts. The Paris-based Reporters Without Borders put the figure of reporters detained at 34.

The New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists said 13 were still in custody, including Newsweek correspondent Maziar Bahari.

The Iranian government must release all journalists and halt "unreasonable and arbitrary measures that are restricting the flow of information," the committee said. "Detaining journalists for reporting news and commentary indicates the government has something to hide."

Sources: Huffington Post, MSNBC, Whitehouse.gov, Flickr

Neda's Death Reveals Iran's Unstable Regime To The World (Graphic Video)

MSNBC----

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Amateur video of a young Iranian woman lying in the street — blood streaming from her nose and mouth — has quickly become an iconic image of the country's opposition movement and unleashed a flood of outrage at the regime's crackdown.

The footage, less than a minute long, appears to capture the woman's death moments after she was shot at a protest — a powerful example of citizens' ability to document events inside Iran despite government restrictions on foreign media and Internet and phone lines.

The limits imposed amid the unrest over the disputed June 12 election make details of the woman's life and events immediately preceding her apparent death difficult to confirm. She has been identified in the video clips as 'Neda' but it's impossible to confirm her name, or even if the widely distributed video was taken in Tehran during the unrest.

Yet clips of the woman are among the most viewed items on YouTube — with untold numbers of people passing along the amateur videos through social networks and watching them on television.

"We will gather on the streets of Tehran with candles to bear witness and mourn for Neda and other fallen friends," said one posting from Tehran.

The images entered wide circulation Saturday when two distinct videos purporting to show her death appeared separately on YouTube and Facebook.

"Don't be afraid, Neda dear":

They show people trying desperately to treat the woman, who is clad in blue jeans, white sneakers, a black jacket and the headscarf required by Iran's Islamic dress code. Her eyes roll back and blood squirts from her nose, pouring across her face as those trying to help her scream.

"Don't be afraid, don't be afraid, don't be afraid, Neda dear, don't be afraid," a white-haired man in a striped shirt repeats throughout the longer of the videos, his voice escalating throughout.

People posting the video say the woman was shot by a member of the pro-government Basij militia. That information could not be independently verified: Reporters for foreign news organizations have been barred from reporting on the streets of Tehran, and the Iranian government has not released any information about her death.

A profile on Wikipedia identified the woman as Neda Agha Soltani, and said she was 26 or 27 years old.

An acquaintance of her family told the Associated Press that Neda worked part-time at a travel agency in Iran and that the government barred the family from holding a public funeral Monday. The acquaintance spoke on condition of anonymity because she feared government reprisal. The Iranian government has banned all public gatherings, though there was no specific information about funerals for those killed in recent clashes.

Imagery could have impact on opinion:

Although the Iranian government has blocked many Web sites including Facebook and has jammed satellite television signals, the videos of the woman's death have been circulating inside the country. People have used anti-filtering software to download them. Some Iranians have uploaded the footage to their cell phones and used Bluetooth technology to share it.

The bloody imagery alone could have an important impact on public opinion in Iran, where the idea of martyrdom resonates deeply among a populace steeped in the stories and imagery of Shiite Islam, a faith founded on the idea of self-sacrifice in the cause of justice.

The deaths of protesters during the 1979 Islamic Revolution fueled a cycle of mourning marches that contributed to the overthrow of the U.S.-backed dictator, Shah Reza Pahlavi.

Thousands of people inside and outside Iran have written online tributes to the woman, many condemning the government and praising her as a martyr. Some posted photos of a gently smiling woman they said was Neda, some calling her "Iran's Joan of Arc."


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Mayhem, Violence Intensifies Between Iranian Police & Protesters...Suicide Bombing Reported

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TEHRAN, Iran - As police beat and fired tear gas at protesters in Tehran who defied a ban and the country's supreme leader, the nation's police chief said Saturday that his response would only get tougher if anti-government protests continue.

In Washington, U.S. President Barack Obama urged Iran to halt the "violent and unjust" crackdown, his bluntest language yet on the crisis. "Suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away," Obama said in a written statement.

Opposition presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi did not appear at the main clashes near Revolution Square on Saturday, but a supporter said he did make a public address in southwest Tehran, urging backers to stage a national strike if he is arrested.

"Mousavi said he was ready for martyrdom and that he would continue his path," the ally, who asked not to be named, told Reuters by telephone.

And the semi-official Fars news agency later reported that Mousavi had issued a statement to supporters that he was not challenging the Islamic state. But, he reportedly added, by not allowing legal rallies, the Islamic state could face "dangerous consequences."

In central Tehran earlier Saturday, eyewitnesses described fierce clashes near Revolution Square after some 3,000 protesters chanted "Death to the dictator!" and "Death to dictatorship!"

Police responded with tear gas, water cannons and guns but it was not immediately clear if they were firing live ammunition.

No fatalities were reported and the head of Iran's police said his men had been ordered to act with restraint — this time.

"We acted with leniency but I think from today on, we should resume law and confront more seriously," Gen. Esmaeil Ahmadi Moghadam said on state television. "The events have become exhausting, bothersome and intolerable. I want them to take the police cautions seriously because we will definitely show a serious confrontation against those who violate rules."

Blockade around Freedom Street:

Police and militia did try to bar people from entering Freedom Street, which runs from Freedom Square to Revolution Square, to prevent a mass gathering, witnesses said.

NBC News Iran bureau chief Ali Arouzi said he had never ever seen so many police on the streets at once.

Witnesses said between 50 and 60 protesters were seriously beaten by police and pro-government militia and taken to a hospital. People could be seen dragging away comrades bloodied by baton strikes.

Some protesters fought back, setting fire to militia members' motorcycles, witnesses said.

Helicopters hovered overhead, as ambulance sirens echoed through the streets and black smoke rose over the city.

Tehran University was cordoned off by police and militia while students inside the university chanted "Death to the dictator," witnesses said.

In the south of the city, supporters of Mousavi set on fire a building used by backers of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a witness said, and police there then fired into the air to disperse them and Ahmadinejad supporters.

Mousavi late Saturday repeated his demand for the election to be annulled.

In a letter to Iran's Guardian Council, which investigates voting fraud allegations, Mousavi listed violations that he says are proof that the June 12 vote should be annulled. He said some ballot boxes had been sealed before voting began, thousands of his representatives had been expelled from polling stations and some mobile polling stations had ballot boxes filled with fake ballots.

"The Iranian nation will not believe this unjust and illegal" act, Mousavi said in the letter published on one of his official Web sites.

Suicide bombing reported:

Also Saturday, a suicide bomber died and three people were wounded at the entrance to the shrine of Iran's revolutionary leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, state television said.

It was not clear if the bombing was related to the election protests.

On Friday, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned opposition leaders to end street protests or be held responsible for any "bloodshed and chaos" to come.

The statement effectively closed the door to Mousavi's demand for a new election, ratcheting up the possibility of a bloody confrontation.

Continued protests could spark a bloody crackdown on Mousavi's supporters, or greatly weaken the government by forcing it back away from its threat of violence.

A report on Press TV listed the fallout from the unrest, including 700 buildings and 300 banks damaged and 400 police hurt. It gave no similar list for the protesters. At least seven people have died, according to the official Iranian count, but the total could be more.

It was not clear if Mousavi has the power to halt street demonstrations even if he orders his supporters to stay inside.

Iran's Interior Ministry raised the possibility of directly punishing the 67-year-old former prime minister, saying he would "be held responsible for the consequences of any illegal gatherings." The ministry accused him of supporting protests that "have lead to the disruption of security and public order," State Security Council secretary, Abbas Mohtaj, said in a statement on the ministry's Web site.

Guardian Council:

Mousavi and another presidential candidate, Mahdi Karroubi, did not attend a meeting with Iran's Guardian Council on Saturday, state TV said. The council, an unelected body of 12 clerics and Islamic law experts close to Khamenei, investigates voter fraud claims.

A conservative candidate, former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaei, did attend, state TV said.

The state's English-language channel said the Guardian Council had agreed to a recount of 10 percent of the votes, without providing details.

State TV also said the Association of Combatant Clerics, a group linked to former President Mohammad Khatami, a Mousavi ally, had told supporters to stay off the streets. The report could not immediately be confirmed.

Since the June 12 election, Mousavi has become the figurehead for a broad collection of demonstrators — from the most liberal-leaning reformists to religious conservatives. Some could be prepared to take their protests to the limit, but many others have no interest in an all-out mutiny against the country's Islamic system.

Mousavi's speaking curbed:

A spokesman for Mousavi said Friday the opposition leader was not under arrest but was not allowed to speak to journalists or stand at a microphone at rallies. Iranian filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf told the AP from Paris it's even becoming difficult to reach people close to Mousavi. He said he has not heard from Mousavi's camp since Khamenei's address Friday morning.

Iranian authorities have interfered with the Internet and mobile phone networks and placed strict limits on the ability of foreign media to cover recent events, banning reporting from the street and allowing only phone interviews and information from officials sources such as state TV.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and other European Union leaders have expressed dismay over the threat of a crackdown and both houses of the U.S. Congress approved a resolution Friday condemning "the ongoing violence" by the Iranian government and its suppression of the Internet and cell phones.

In an interview taped Friday with CBS, President Barack Obama said he is very concerned by the "tenor and tone" of Khamenei's comments. He also said that how Iran's leaders "approach and deal with people who are, through peaceful means, trying to be heard" will signal "what Iran is and is not."


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