NFL RATINGS vs FLAG PROTESTS: BYE-BYE FANS (STOP USING U.S. MILITARY)

NFL RATINGS vs AMERICAN FLAG PROTESTS:

CORE FANS ARE QUIETLY SLIPPING AWAY.

PLEASE STOP USING U.S. MILITARY TROOPS TO PUSH DIVISIVE AGENDAS.

THIS PROTEST HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE U.S. MILITARY.

THIS PROTEST IS ABOUT 400 YEARS OF INTENTIONAL INSTITUTIONAL RACISM CONGRESS REFUSES TO STOP.


Sources: USA Today, Washington Examiner, Fox News, Youtube


***** Shock poll: NFL now least liked sport, core fans down 31%


Over just one month of player, coach, and owner protests of the flag and National Anthem, the National Football League has gone from America's sport to the least liked of top professional and college sports, according to a new poll.


From the end of August to the end of September, the favorable ratings for the NFL have dropped from 57 percent to 44 percent, and it has the highest unfavorable rating – 40 percent – of any big sport, according to the Winston Group survey provided exclusively to Secrets.

Worse for football, which was already seeing lower TV ratings and empty stadium seats, the month of protests and complaints about them from President Trump drove core fans, men 34-54, away, the most significant indicator that NFL brass aren't in touch with their base.

The Winston Poll from the Washington-based Winston Group found that the attitude of those fans went from an August rating of 73 percent favorable and 19 percent unfavorable to 42 percent favorable and 47 percent unfavorable, a remarkable turn against the sport.

According to the poll analysis, "more critically for the NFL, the fall off in favorables occurred among important audiences. Among males, NFL favorables fell 23 percent, going from 68 percent to 45 percent. In looking at a more specific audience, males 34-54, NFL favorables fell 31 percent, going from 73 percent to 42 percent. Among this group the NFL has a surprising negative image, as it went from +54 percent in August to -5 percent in September."

The Winston Poll was of brand images for the NFL, Major League Baseball, the National Basketball Association, and college football and basketball. It was of 1,000 registered voters and taken August 29-30 and then again September 28-29.

In August, baseball had the highest favorables, just a few points above the NFL.

August Winston Poll

MLB/61 percent favorable to 13 percent unfavorable.
NFL/57 percent favorable to 23 percent unfavorable.
College football/53 percent favorable to 16 percent unfavorable.
College basketball/48 percent favorable to 17 percent unfavorable.
NBA/47 percent unfavorable to 23 percent unfavorable.
September Winston Poll

MLB/63 percent favorable to 16 percent unfavorable.
College football/51 percent favorable to 21 percent unfavorable.
NBA/46 percent favorable to 28 percent unfavorable.
College basketball/45 percent favorable to 25 percent unfavorable.
NFL/44 percent favorable to 40 percent unfavorable.
During the month, the college basketball drop was likely influenced by the suspension of Louisville Coach Rick Pitino who is linked to a scandal.

According to the Winston Poll, every category of NFL fan saw a drop in support.

Bev Perdue Won't Seek Re-election! Her Decision Will Help Obama!

Good News for Obama From N.C.: Dem Gov. Declines to Run in ’12


North Carolina Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue will not seek re-election in 2012, a Democratic source confirmed to ABC News.

That decision should improve President Obama’s chances in the state next November, as Perdue is deeply unpopular, and that unpopularity could have hurt the president — and Democrats in general – in North Carolina in 2012.

Perdue will make the announcement this afternoon. The North Carolina Democratic Party would not confirm whether Perdue had declined to run, only that an announcement would be made Thursday.

In April, an Elon University poll showed that Perdue’s approval ratings had sagged behind Obama’s in the state. Perdue’s disapproval rating was 52 percent, while her approval rating was 33 percent.

Obama, meanwhile, enjoyed a 48 percent job-approval rating and a 46 percent disapproval rating in North Carolina. While reliable polls have been hard to come by in North Carolina, since April a string of automated phone surveys have corroborated Perdue’s unpopularity.

Obama carried North Carolina in 2008, 50 percent to 49 percent for Sen. John McCain. Democrats made significant gains in North Carolina in 2006, and, along with Obama’s victory in Virginia in 2008, North Carolina gave the party hope of an expanded electoral map and newfound competitiveness in the South.

Obama’s campaign has said it would focus its efforts again on North Carolina in 2012.

“We put the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., in part because we believe so deeply in this map,” campaign manager Jim Messina said in a YouTube fundraising video that laid out Obama’s potential electoral strategyin late December.

Had Perdue remained in office, she could have dampened the campaign efforts of President Obama, who would presumably have campaigned alongside Perdue and shared the stage with her at North Carolina events.

Perdue’s tenure saw a series of bad headlines and political disasters that sullied her image after she won the race to the governor’s mansion in 2008.

In September, she caused a stir by suggesting that the United States suspend its congressional elections for two years. In November, three of her aides were indicted for allegedly violating state election law in a scheme to pay a staff member $32,000 for work that was kept off the books.

This month, House Education and the Workforce Committee Chairman John Kline, R-Minn., launched an inquiry into whether Perdue breached government protocol by alluding to new unemployment numbers in a speech before their scheduled release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The top Republican candidate to replace Perdue is Pat McRory, who ran against Perdue and lost in 2008. Democrats do not yet have a leading candidate to step into the race, although Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx appear to be likely contenders.



Bev Perdue will not seek re-election

First-term North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue will not seek re-election, she announced Thursday.

Saddled with low poll ratings, Perdue, a Democrat, was the most endangered incumbent governor of the cycle and faced grim prospects in the fall against Republican Pat McCrory, a former Charlotte mayor who is expected to formally launch his bid in the coming weeks.

“I have spent my tenure in office — and, in fact, my adult lifetime — fighting for things that I care deeply about. And as anyone who knows me will tell you, I do not back down from tough fights,” Perdue said in a statement.

“But I understand this:
We live in highly partisan times, where some people seem more worried about scoring political points than working together to address the real challenges our state faces. And it is clear to me that my race for reelection will only further politicize the fight to adequately fund our schools.

A reelection campaign in this already divisive environment will make it more difficult to find any bipartisan solutions.”

The announcement resets what’s expected to be a vigorously fought open-seat contest in a state that will host the Democratic National Convention and could be crucial to President Obama’s re-election.

Democrats had been fretting for months about Perdue’s prospects but sources indicated Thursday that the governor came to the decision herself and was not forced out by leaders in Washington or Raleigh.

“She’s a very pragmatic woman. The scenario always was, If the polling didn’t turn around, she’d reconsider,” said a Democratic source close to the process. “She saw the writing on the wall and knew that it would be a very tough year ahead.”
Tough is an understatement.

Recent public polling found Perdue trailing McCrory by 10 points and her approval rating mired in the 30s. She had also been plagued by scandal. In November, three of her former 2008 campaign aides were indicted on obstruction of justice charges following a grand jury investigation that found a staffer was allowed to work off the books.

Her campaign also faced self-inflicted wounds when she suggested in September that congressional elections be suspended for two years, and in May when her son took to Facebook to accuse a McCrory fundraiser of adultery.

Most recently, she issued a picked a fight with the GOP-lead General Assembly through a string of vetoes and proposed a new sales tax to fund education.
Following Perdue’s announcement, which is scheduled for Thursday afternoon, Democrats will swiftly turn to finding a replacement.

Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and Attorney General Roy Cooper have been floated as potential contenders, but Democrats believe no matter who becomes the nominee they’ll ultimately be in stronger position to hold this critical governorship.

“For the last two years Republicans have made this race about Bev Perdue because that’s all they had. Starting today it’s going to be all about Pat McCrory, a failed mayor, an unsuccessful candidate for governor,”said a Democratic source.

Republicans signaled they won’t allow the eventual candidate to carve out any distance from Perdue.

“As governor, Bev Perdue continues to set the Democrat agenda in Raleigh, which now includes a massive, job-crushing sales tax hike. No matter how hard they try, whoever emerges as the Democratic Party’s successor to Bev Perdue won’t be able to run from the Democrats’ record of higher taxes and disappointing job losses,” said Republican Governors Association Executive Director Phil Cox.


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Sources: ABC News, CNN, Fox News, Politico, WRAL, Youtube, Google Maps

Democrats Fight But Prepare For 2010 GOP Sweep: Obama's Low Ratings

Preston On Politics: Democrats Prepare For The Worst: Decision 2010


It has been said over and over again: The 2010 midterm is the anti-incumbent, anti-Washington and by virtue of their position in power, the anti-Democratic election.

A sputtering economy, 9.6 percent national unemployment rate, housing crisis and little hope for a quick turnaround on the jobs front has forced Democrats on the defense heading into November.

OK, that is an understatement.

Democrats are under siege all across the country and are in deep danger of losing control of the House and if a massive wave develops on November 2, perhaps even the Senate.

Fueled by a huge fundraising effort by the Republican Governors Association, the GOP is also in position to reclaim more than a half dozen governorships including in states that President Obama easily won in 2008 such as Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

The new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation Polls offers data that shows Democrats running for Senate seats in four key states are in dire straits and a president with little juice to help propel them to victory.

In all four of these states: Alaska, Arkansas, Florida and Ohio, Obama's job approval rating ranges from a low of 33 percent (Arkansas) to a high of 42 percent (Ohio). The anti-Washington, thus anti-Democratic, theme shines like a bright neon sign in each of these races.

And the GOP's rubber stamp argument seems to be resonating with voters, whether it is true or not: Sending, say, Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln back to Washington means she will be a rubber stamp for Obama. Lincoln, who stuck to her centrist views and beat back a strong primary challenge from her political left earlier this year, is trailing her GOP opponent, Rep. John Boozman, by 14 points.

In Ohio, Democratic Senate nominee Lee Fisher is down 15 points to Republican Rob Portman. And in Florida, GOP Senate nominee Marco Rubio has a 26 point lead over Democrat Kendrick Meek in a three way race that also features Charlie Crist. Crist is running an independent bid for the Senate seat and trails Rubio by 14 points.

(The National Republican Senatorial Committee is also making the claim to West Virginia voters that the popular Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin would be a rubber stamp for Obama if elected to the Senate).

But the Democrats running for governor in three of four of these states surveyed by CNN/Time/ORC shows that these candidates are either competitive or leading in their individual races. Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe has a 27-point lead over his GOP rival Jim Keet; Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is up one point over Republican opponent John Kasich; and in the race for Florida governor, Democrat Alex Sink trails Republican Rick Scott by three points, which is within the poll's 3.5 percent margin of error.

So, I think it is fair to say -- outside of Alaska -- that Democratic incumbents and candidates in these three states are not being stuck in the same category as their Democratic counterparts running for Senate. That is not to say the national mood is not having a negative affect on these Democrats, it just hasn't been devastating.

As for the CNN/Time/ORC Poll, I dug a little deeper into the survey and found these interesting data points:

Alaska: Lisa Murkowski obviously faces a difficult challenge in having her supporters correctly write-in her name on the ballot on November 2. The poll shows that Murkowski and GOP nominee Joe Miller are tied at 37 percent, with Democratic nominee Scott McAdams registering support at 23 percent. But when respondents were asked if they might choose another candidate if they think the write-in procedure is too complicated, 3 percent answered yes. So, take that 3 percent away from Murkowski's 37 percent and all of a sudden Miller is up three points. Murkowski is still within in the margin of error, but as CNN Polling Director Keating Holland noted "in a tight race, this might be the difference between winning and losing."

Murkowski's greatest support comes from Anchorage and the Panhandle, while Miller wins Fairbanks and the Anchorage area when you expand it beyond the city limits.

Arkansas: How troubling is this for Democrat Blanche Lincoln? She is losing the woman vote to Republican John Boozman by eight points. She performs strongest in the east, while Boozman wins every other region of the state.

Florida: Republican Marco Rubio is winning independents by four points over Charlie Crist, who is running an independent bid. Rubio's lead is within the 6 percent margin of error. Rubio is also winning every corner of the state except southern Florida/Miami area where Crist holds a modest lead over the Republican nominee and the Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. In the governor's race, Democrat Alex Sink is losing every region to Republican Rick Scott, but is crushing him in the southern Florida/Miami area. Sink, too, has soft support with women. She leads Scott by five points with women voters, but that is within the 5 percent margin of error for that specific question.

Ohio: In the Senate contest, Democrat Lee Fisher is losing to Republican Rob Portman among men and woman and in every age category. Geographically, Fisher leads Portman in the Cleveland area by eight points, but that is within the 8.5 percent margin of error. Portman is winning in every other part of the state. As for the competitive governor's race, Ted Strickland is winning women, while John Kasich wins men.

Strickland has a 15-point lead over Kasich with voters who earn less than $50,000, while Kasich has an 11-point lead over Strickland with voters who earn more than $50,000. Kasich has an 11-point lead over Strickland with independents. As for geographic regions, Strickland is leading in the Cleveland area and the central part of the state (the latter is within the margin of error), while Kasich is carrying Cincinnati/Dayton and has a slight lead in Columbus. In the industrial north, the two candidates are dead even.


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Sources: CNN, MSNBC, Politico, Google Maps

Bev Perdue's Poll Numbers Drop To 28%, McCrory In 2012

Bev Perdue's Approval Ratings Declining Again


After showing progress through the first three months of 2010 Bev Perdue's approval numbers have taken a step backward.

28% of voters in the state say they approve of her performance to 52% who disapprove. A month ago she had improved to a 32/47 spread.

Perdue's approval has declined because of decreased support from independents and Democrats. She was already about as low as she could get with Republicans. The drop with independents from 28/47 a month ago to 23/56 this month can probably be chalked up to an ever increasing anti-politician sentiment from those voters. Richard Burr saw a similar dip in his popularity with them since March, showing that's cutting across party lines. More worrisome for Perdue is that she continues to be under 50% within her own party. 44% of Democrats give her good marks this month while 33% of them say they disapprove of her.

If Perdue's numbers continue to be this poor she's likely to be a drag on Democratic legislative candidates this fall, and indeed North Carolina voters this month say they plan to support Republicans for the General Assembly by a 45-42 margin. That's thanks to an eye popping 47-18 edge with independents and also because 89% of Republicans plan to support their party while only 78% of Democrats are committed to theirs. The GOP continues to have its best chance in over a decade to gain control of the legislature.

Despite a rash of high profile Democratic scandals in recent years voters are pretty evenly divided on which party is more equipped to clean up state government. 41% say it's the Republicans while 39% choose the Democrats. That's just another indication the GOP won't get too far with the corruption issue. Voters are just too entrenched in their feeling that both parties are corrupt.

The short session is almost here, and it was the legislative session last year that dropped Perdue's approval numbers to their current low levels. She'll need to use this year's as an opportunity to come across as a more effective and decisive leader and try to change some of these opinions about her around before she becomes the star of Republican campaign ads across the state this fall.

Full results here.






Pat McCrory For NC Governor In 2012?....Let's Hope So


Days after denying interest in a congressional run, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory has opened the door to a rematch with Democratic Gov. Bev. Perdue.

In a Q&A with Raleigh's WRAL, McCrory, a Republican, was asked whether he would consider running for governor again or even the Senate.

"Yes," he replied. "Running a state-wide race was a great experience (except for election night!!!) and I am proud of the campaign we ran. We participated in (and most believe we won) every debate and proved that a candidate can run an effective, positive campaign.

We lived within our fundraising means, didn’t take any loans, and ended the campaign without any debt, just in the same manner I promised I would govern."

McCrory never addressed a possible Senate run, presumably against Democrat Kay Hagan in 2014. But he was critical of Perdue who, he said, "has done an about face on about everything she promised during our campaign."

"I definitely haven't closed the door on any future political options up to and including governor," McCrory told me this morning. "I think I'd be foolish to close doors."

Last week, after opting not to run for Congress from the 8th District, McCrory didn't want to talk about his political future. "Right now my total focus is on completing my term," he said.


10 questions with Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory

1) Are you going to consider running for governor again or maybe even running for Senate?

Yes. Running a state-wide race was a great experience (except for election night!!!) and I am proud of the campaign we ran. We participated in (and most believe we won) every debate and proved that a candidate can run an effective, positive campaign. We lived within our fundraising means, didn’t take any loans, and ended the campaign without any debt, just in the same manner I promised I would govern.


2) Dear Mayor McCrory, first I hope that you take another run at the governor’s race in about three years. What do you think of the term so far of the current administration?

I believe the appointments for Secretary of Commerce (J. Keith Crisco) and Secretary of Transportation (Gene Conti) were actually quite good. However, the current administration has done an about face on about everything she promised during our campaign. Our new Governor has raised taxes, reduced mental health care, laid off teachers, and closed much needed prisons. There has been no effort to change the culture of how state government decisions are discussed behind closed doors. Campaign violations by the past and current Administration continue to be exposed well after the election.


3) How would you have handled the budget differently than our current governor? What would be your top three priorities at this time?

Before ever considering tax increases, I would have initiated major reforms of state government. I would have first made the budget process more transparent and open to scrutiny by both the public and media before the budget was adopted. My major priorities would have been:

1) Not to not raise taxes in order to maintain private sector jobs

2) Education reform

3) Strengthen public safety.


4) The new N.C. budget unfortunately has a tax increase and you vowed not to raise taxes in your race versus Perdue. What specifically would you have cut from the budget to prevent a tax increase?

I would have reduced bureaucracy and duplication in the University system, eliminated perks, such as state airplanes, and begun selling assets to reduce operating costs, in areas in which the state government does not need to be directly involved. For example, I would have transferred retail operation of the ABC liquor store system to the existing private sector stores, yet retained the much-needed revenue from those sales. The operation savings and the sale of assets would have been transferred to the budget deficit and to help retain teachers. I would have vetoed any effort to continue to subsidize out-of-state athletes with in-state tuition. I would have also started the process to allow offshore oil drilling to create much needed jobs and generate new revenue for the State.


5) Mayor McCrory: I am a life-long Democrat who seldom votes for a Republican because I ordinarily find my opinions to be diametrically opposed to the GOP's. You are different from most Republicans and I voted for you. I probably would vote for you again if I agree or see that your philosophy concerning health care reform is that it has to be changed. Therefore, my question is: What is your position concerning policy that N.C. can institute that will make health care universally accessible to all citizens, affordable and better than our current system which I see as a failure?

We need healthcare reform at both the federal and state level. However, many of the solutions coming out of Washington, D.C, would cause an even greater deficit and could actually rob the Medicare system of already limited revenue. I would propose major tort reform, especially to assist emergency room doctors in rural areas, reduce the number of state-required mandates so young people can afford to buy insurance in N.C., and I would look for more competition among insurance companies.


6) Mr. McCrory, how would you handle the Gas tax situation? Would you have done what Gov. Perdue did? I now wish you would have won the election.

I was a proponent of capping the gas tax, especially during these tough economic times. I would make sure our transportation expenditures are based upon four major factors:

1) Safety

2) Traffic congestion

3) Environment, and

4) Economic development, which is presently not the case.

I am an advocate for the State planning and partnering with local communities in developing a transportation plan with many choices, including roads, greenways, bikeways, and sidewalks to complement the needs of both small towns and large cities. Unfortunately, our State DOT is not as flexible as it needs to be and we still have a political formula of where and how we build and maintain roads in N.C. This must change.


7) PLEASE run again for governor in the next election. You came so close last time and I think you could win next time. I voted for you the first time, but many of my fellow educators thought Perdue was better for education. Could you please briefly explain what you would do for education? Thanks!

Education runs deep in my family. I obtained my N.C. teaching certificate after college and my sister was a teacher with Wake County schools until the latest round of budget cuts. My vision for the K-12 level is to decentralize the decision making and bureaucracy to allow principals and teachers more flexibility in teaching the basics, instead of just tests. I want to ensure teachers are backed up when addressing discipline problems in the classroom. I support immediately lifting the cap on charter schools to allow more choice for parents and students.

I believe the community college system needs to return to putting more emphasis on trade and technical education, as opposed to junior college curriculum. At the university level, we first must remove the politics and the culture of creating numerous levels of management outside of the classroom. I would also look at a process to eliminate duplication, course work among schools and introducing shared curriculum through more efficient, long-distance technology.


8) To what extent do you think that the major political parties are marginalizing their candidates and nominees by requiring them to march in lockstep with party lines rather than allowing them to speak/vote with their own conscience/values? If you do not, please explain.

The major problem with political parties is that they continue to gerrymander districts to guarantee elections at the local, state and federal level. This gives limited choices to voters at election time and also discourages any bipartisan cooperation. Most elections for state legislators are determined in the primary because of this political scheme. I believe party affiliation does give voters information as they go into the voting booth, but I hope people are also evaluating candidates based on past performance and the values they espouse and live up to.


9) What do you think was your biggest mistake in your campaign?

We thought our opponent was Beverly Perdue, when in fact, we underestimated the role and impact of the Obama organization and their ability to impact the Governor’s race by encouraging straight ticket voting. We didn’t know at the time that the Obama campaign had more than 300 paid staff members spread throughout the state and were pouring literally millions of dollars to make North Carolina competitive with a message to vote a straight-party ticket. We simply didn’t have the money to overcome those resources.


10) To what do you attribute your loss in the governor's election of November 2008? I thought you won the debates, and your experience topped Perdue's. Was your loss attributable to Obama's coat tails?

Most political experts would say that we won the debates and ran an effective and positive campaign – all without incurring any debt while being outspent by 3 to 1. Most political pundits would agree that we lost for four primary reasons:

1) First and most important was the Obama campaign and their unlimited resources to make North Carolina a contested state and encourage straight-ticket voting

2) The third party, libertarian candidate taking limited, but very important and valuable votes from our efforts

3) Weaker Republican national ticket which had little or no coattails

4) The economic meltdown in September and October while President Bush was in office no doubt also impacted the election.

Unfortunately, some voters believed the Perdue campaign’s shameless, inaccurate, and negative ads on radio and TV stations during the last four weeks. Despite these factors, I am very proud we received over 60 percent of the vote among those who voted specifically on election day. No matter the outcome, I am proud that our integrity and reputation are intact after the campaign. Overall, it was a wonderful, yet heartbreaking, experience.


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Sources: Facebook, McClatchy Newspapers, Public Policy Polling, WRAL, Google Maps

Obama, Dems Rapidly Losing Minority & Youth Voters (Polls)

Democrat Minority & Youth Support Dwindling


Whither the youth vote? A year after backing Barack Obama by an overwhelming 2-to-1 ratio, young adults are quickly cooling toward Democrats amid dissatisfaction over the lack of change in Washington and an escalating war in Afghanistan.

A study by the Pew Research Center, being released Wednesday, highlights the eroding support from 18-to-29 year olds whose strong turnout in November 2008 was touted by some demographers as the start of a new Democratic movement.

The findings are significant because they offer further proof that the diverse coalition of voters Obama cobbled together in 2008 – including high numbers of first-timers, minorities and youths – are not Democratic Party voters who can necessarily be counted on.

While young adults remain decidedly more liberal, the survey found the Democratic advantage among 18-to-29 year olds has substantially narrowed – from a record 62 percent identifying as Democrat vs. 30 percent for the GOP in 2008, down to 54 percent vs. 40 percent last December. It was the largest percentage point jump in those who identified or leaned Republican among all the voting age groups.

Young adults' voting enthusiasm also crumbled.

During the presidential election, turnout among 18-to-29 year olds was the highest in years, making up roughly 20 percent of the voters in many states including Virginia and New Jersey, due in part to high participation from young blacks and Hispanics.

That percentage, however, dropped by half for the gubernatorial races in those states last November where Republicans celebrated wins as black groups pushed Obama to do more to soften the economic blow from mortgage foreclosures and Latinos saw little progress on immigration reform. Young adults were also the least likely of any age group to identify themselves as regular voters.

"This is a generation of young adults who made a big splash politically in 2008," said Paul Taylor, executive vice president of the Pew Research Center and co-author of the report. "But a year and a half later, they show signs of disillusionment with the president – and, perhaps, with politics itself."

Democrats saw evidence of this last November, when Republicans toppled Democrats from power in governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia. Young, minority and new voters who Obama pulled into the fold in 2008 didn't turn out at the same levels for the two Democratic candidates. The same thing happened in the Massachusetts Senate race last month.

The lesson: Neither party has a hold on 18-to-29 year olds. They tend to vote far less than other age groups, yet they have proven to be a powerful constituency if they are persuaded to vote. And that means the race is on by both Republicans and Democrats to make inroads into the next generation of voters.

Analysts say the findings reflect the fast pace at which young voters live their lives, and both parties should take note of their fickleness.

"If you don't respond to their needs, hopes or dreams quickly, they're gone," said Matthew Dowd, an independent political analyst who was a strategist in former President George W. Bush's 2004 re-election campaign. "They'll leave the playing field or switch their allegiance."

"They haven't become Republicans and they aren't solid Democrats. They're just looking for leaders who are where they are and will deliver," Dowd said. "Both parties have to be cognizant of the volatility of that group."

According to the Pew survey, large numbers of young adults said they personally liked the president but were dissatisfied with his rate of progress in changing Washington, such as improving the economy and fixing health care. Just 46 percent of 18-to-29 year olds said they believed Obama had changed Washington, compared to 48 percent who said he had not. Only baby boomers were more cynical, with 52 percent saying Obama had not changed the way things work in Washington.

The young adults also were the only age group in which more disapproved than approved of Obama's handling of the war in Afghanistan. Only 34 percent supported his decision in December to send an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to the region, while 50 percent disapproved.

Still, when asked why Obama hadn't done more to bring change, young adults were somewhat forgiving, with about 56 percent blaming the president's opponents and special interests; only 30 percent said Obama was the one at fault for not trying hard enough.

The findings are part of Pew's broad portrait of the so-called millennial generation, the children of baby boomers who came of age in the new millennium. Demographers believe this generation can reshape U.S. culture and politics because of their demographic size and political outlook.

Making up nearly one-fourth of U.S. voters, 18-to-29 year olds are less religious, more racially diverse and liberal on social issues such as gay rights. They are steeped in digital technology and social media, and are strong believers in the view that the government should do more to solve problems.

For example:

_Nearly two-thirds admit to texting while driving, and more than 8 in 10 sleep with their cell phones by their bed.

_Nearly 4 in 10 have at least one tattoo; about half of those people have two to five tattoos. Roughly 1 in 4 have a body piercing in a place other than an earlobe – six times the share of older adults.

_About 37 percent of young adults are unemployed or out of the workforce, the highest share among this age group in more than three decades. A record share – 39.6 percent – was enrolled in college, and one in 8 millennials ages 22 and older say they had "boomeranged" back into their parents' home because of the recession.

The Pew Survey is based on interviews with 2,020 adults by cell phone or landline from Jan. 14 to 27. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for all respondents, higher for subgroups.


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Sources: Pew Research Center, Huffington Post, AP, Global Grind, Google Maps

Obama Focused On Health Care Reform Not 2012 Elections (Transcript)

Obama Stakes 2012 On Reform


President Obama said on Monday that he’s committed to passing health care reform – even if it costs him re-election.

"I'd rather be a really good one-term president than a mediocre two-term president," he told ABC's Diane Sawyer.

Sawyer interviewed Obama at the White House on Monday, just two days before he’ll deliver the State of the Union. In a preview of the interview, which airs at 6:30 p.m., ABC News said Obama would not back down.

"You know, there is a tendency in Washington to believe our job description, of elected officials, is to get reelected. That's not our job description," Obama said. "Our job description is to solve problems and to help people."

And the president dismissed his slumping job approval rating.

"I went through this [in] the campaign,” he said. “When your poll numbers drop, you are an idiot. When your poll numbers are high, you are a genius. If my poll numbers are low, then I am cool and cerebral, and cool and detached. If my poll numbers are high, ‘boy he's calm and reasoned all right.’"





Transcript: Diane Sawyer Interviews Obama



DIANE SAWYER, ABC'S "WORLD NEWS" ANCHOR: Mr. President, thank you.

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Thank you.

SAWYER: So, looking back a year, going before a joint session of Congress. What's the biggest difference in going this week?

OBAMA: Well, you know, this may seem counterintuitive, but the biggest difference is that I was more worried about where the country was going a year ago than I am now. Keep in mind that when I made that joint session speech, we still didn't know whether the financial system was going to stabilize. We still were looking at five, six, seven hundred thousand jobs per month being lost. It still wasn't clear whether or not we were going to be able to generate economic growth again.

And so, the steps that we took at the beginning of this year have meant that the potential meltdown of the economy has gone away. What hasn't gone away is the desperation that people are feeling who were one of the 7 million who lost jobs during that period, and so right now, I think there's frustration and anger about why can't we get this thing moving faster? And it's a frustration that I feel as well…

SAWYER: Republicans are already out today saying what you're talking about so far for Wednesday night is not going to create any new jobs.

OBAMA: The -- well, I would suggest that they save the rebuttal for after the speech. They haven't really heard what we're proposing.

SAWYER: But what is it going to be? New stimulus money -- as we know, in the House, they have talked about $170 billion or so for new stimulus money…

OBAMA: Here's what we're going to talk about. We're going to talk about how we can first of all, focus on job creation and growth. And I've met with the Republicans, by the way, several weeks ago. So, I have their ideas. I know what they're proposing. And some of the things we propose are things that actually should get some strong bipartisan support.

We're also going to make sure we're focused on some issues that have been burdening the middle class well before the crisis hit. You know, what's happening in terms of affordability of college. How can people save for their retirement in a more secure way? How do they deal with both child care and elderly parents that they've got to take care of?

So, there are going to be a set of proposals that we put forward that help to stabilize the situation and deal with the growing insecurity and anxiety of people who, even if they haven't lost their job, are still feeling squeezed by their incomes shrinking and their costs going up.

SAWYER: But a year ago, you said the first item on the agenda, a year ago, jobs.

OBAMA: Absolutely.

SAWYER: Painted a picture of jobs from coast to...

OBAMA: Well, now, Diane, I think that's not fair. Here's what I said...

SAWYER: A hope for jobs, at least, infrastructure...

OBAMA: Here's what I said, was that our number one priority was stopping the economic contraction and putting people back to work. Now, we have stopped the economic contraction. The economy is growing again, and we did create or save several million of jobs. That's not my opinion. That's the opinion of conservative economists as well as liberal economists, was that the Recovery Act, which is a combination of tax cuts, infrastructure improvements, helping states stabilize their budgets -- all those things helped to lessen the fall.

But we've still lost 7 million jobs. So, I understand why the American people, their attitude is not "It could have been worse." Their attitude is, "How do we make sure we keep on making it better?". And that's what we'll be talking about on Wednesday.

SAWYER: New proposal? Something surprising?

OBAMA: Well, you know, I'll let you guys judge whether it's surprising or not. There's going to be consistency though in the sense that my first job coming into office was to rescue the economy from great peril. My second job was to make sure that we create a new foundation for economic growth.

Here's part of what happened. Over the last decade, even when people were saying that the economy was doing fine, it was one of the first times in history where the middle class actually saw its incomes decline. We actually saw very little job growth during that period. And on a whole host of measures from health care cost, college affordability, people were having a harder and harder time getting by. So what I've said is we can't go back to the same pattern where you've got bubbles, whether it's in housing or the dot.com boom that are fueling a lot of speculation, making a lot of people a lot of money, but leaving a lot of people in the middle and low-income people behind.

What we have to have is a foundation that's built on a good education system, a sound energy policy, a health care system that works for everybody, financial regulations that ensure we don't have this crisis again, and those foundations for long-term economic growth are going to be my focus this year. They're going to be my focus next year. They're going to be my focus the year after that because if we don't get that stuff right, then it's going to be very difficult for us to answer the anxieties that people feel over the long-term.

SAWYER: A couple of quick news questions if I can. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke going to be confirmed. Do you guarantee the markets that he's going to the Fed chairman?

OBAMA: He has my strongest support. I think he's done a good job. What we've seen is not only Democratic leaders, but also Republican leaders say that he should be confirmed and I'm confident that he will be confirmed.

SAWYER: Even though Barbara Boxer, John McCain have come out and said look -- John McCain said he's the guy who steered into the iceberg. Barbara Boxer said we need a representative of Main Street on the Fed.

OBAMA: What we need is somebody at the Federal Reserve who can make sure that the progress that we've made in stabilizing the economy continues. And I think Bernanke is the best person for that job.

Watch Diane Sawyer's interview with President Obama on "World News" at 6:30 p.m. ET tonight, on "Nightline" at 11:35 p.m., and on "Good Morning America" at 7 a.m. Tuesday.

SAWYER: Secretary Geithner and Economic Chairman Summers, have you asked them to stay until the end of 2010? Have they said yes?

OBAMA: You know, we haven't had the conversation because my presumption is that they are staying. There's a lot of "hue and cry" in Washington because this is what happens. The political season is starting a little bit early this year. But the fact of the matter is that when you look at the cards that we were handed at the beginning of last year and where we are now, a lot of that has to do with sound, steady economic leadership. And they've been terrific advisers for me and I think they will continue to be terrific advisers.

SAWYER: To all the people terrified about the deficit, $1.5 trillion more this year than taken in expected next year. Can you guarantee them still that there will be no taxes on anybody who makes under $250,000 a year? That's still the absolute rule?

OBAMA: I can guarantee that the worst thing we could do would be to raise taxes when the economy is still this weak. So we're going to be rolling out our budget. I'm not going to be giving you too many previews of the State of the Union, but I think it's important to understand that No. 1, I haven't raised taxes on anybody, I've cut taxes. Ninety-five percent of working Americans have gotten a tax cut, partly because it's the right thing to do because of the recession, partly because it's just something I campaigned on. So that's point number one.

Point number two in terms of the deficit. Understand where our deficit index comes from. When I walked into office, we had a $1.3 trillion deficit. We also had $8 billion (sic) -- $8 trillion worth of national debt that had been accumulated from the previous administrations, cutting taxes during war time, a prescription drug plan that wasn't paid for. The only additions that we added were the stimulus package last year, which amounted to $1 trillion. Now that's a serious amount of money to rescue the economy. But it pales in comparison to the structural deficit that's built into our budget right now, that is a problem that is long running and we're going to have to solve.

And we're not going to solve it easily. There aren't any magic solutions to it. It's going to be a slow chipping away, and what I'm going to do is propose a series of measures that show we are serious about it. That I, the president, am willing to not just point fingers, but actually make some tough choices myself. My hope is that both Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill will join me in this effort of solving the problem, instead of trying to kick the can down the road and blame somebody else.

SAWYER: Health care -- going forward, should all the conversations, all the meetings be on C-SPAN?

OBAMA: You know, I think your question points out to a legitimate mistake that I made during the course of the year, and that is that we had to make so many decisions quickly in a very difficult set of circumstances that after awhile, we started worrying more about getting the policy right than getting the process right. But I had campaigned on process. Part of what I had campaigned on was changing how Washington works, opening up transparency and I think it is -- I think the health care debate as it unfolded legitimately raised concerns not just among my opponents, but also amongst supporters that we just don't know what's going on. And it's an ugly process and it looks like there are a bunch of back room deals.

Now I think it's my responsibility and I'll be speaking to this at the State of the Union, to own up to the fact that the process didn't run the way I ideally would like it to and that we have to move forward in a way that recaptures that sense of opening things up more.

SAWYER: A lot of people think you must say at the end of the day, this is not who I was in 2008, these deals with Nebraska, with Florida...

OBAMA: Let's hold on a second, Diane. I mean, I think that this gets into a big mush. So let's just clarify. I didn't make a bunch of deals. There is a legislative process that is taking place in Congress and I am happy to own up to the fact that I have not changed Congress and how it operates the way I would have liked. So that's point number one.

Number two is that I think it is important to know that the promises we made about increased transparency, we've executed here in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. I mean, this is the first White House in history where you know anybody who has walked into my office, anybody who has walked into the White House, you actually have a record of who comes in. We have put more stuff on the Internet than ever.

We've eliminated lobbyists from all the boards and commissions that historically, you know, they dominated in this town. So it's not that we haven't made significant progress, but we haven't changed it as much as we needed to.

Now, in terms of the health care bill, the product of making sure that we got historic insurance reforms that people have been fighting for years so that insurance companies can't take advantage of people, making sure that we're bending the cost curve, and -- and actually starting to reduce health care inflation in this country, which is a huge problem, making sure that 30 million people have access to health insurance, making sure that small businesses have tax credits -- it's important that people look at the core elements of what both the House and the Senate passed.

And every health economist out there, who's serious about this stuff, will tell you it's a vast improvement over the status quo. It doesn't -- that doesn't excuse the stray cats and dogs that found their way into legislation. It is point out that as we move forward, we've got to make sure that we're focused on what is actually helping the American people deal with what is a very serious problem.

SAWYER: A personal question, if I can, because a lot of people heard you in the Baptist church say sometimes in these buzz saw bruising seasons...

OBAMA: Right.

SAWYER: ... you sit and confront your own doubts...

OBAMA: Yes.

SAWYER: ... somebody who is close to the administration that asked the question, I was wrong about -- personally -- personally wrong about fill in the noun...

OBAMA: Well, you know, I -- I'd say I probably make a mistake a day, maybe two. But -- but I think in terms of over the course of the year, as I said before, we've been so focused on just getting things done that I think that we stopped giving voice to the frustrations that people have about the process here in Washington.

SAWYER: You talked about...

OBAMA: And that was -- that -- that's something that I take responsibility for. I will also say, though, that what we've actually been fighting to get done is entirely consistent with what I campaigned on.

It -- it's trying to figure out how we can make sure that, you know, the -- the woman I meet in Iowa, who has lost her job and now doesn't have health insurance, how she can get some help. It's -- it's the small businessman in -- in New Hampshire, who is -- is looking at suddenly his premiums going up 40, 50 percent and is having to make a decision about either cutting health care for his employees or losing an employee.

And -- and those are the voices in my head when I wake up in the morning, and those are the voices in my head when I go to bed at night. And I don't make apologies for trying to solve some big problems that this town has proven incapable of solving for way too long.

SAWYER: Ever in the middle of all that's coming did you think maybe one term is enough?

OBAMA: You know, I -- I would say that when I -- the one thing I'm clear about is that I'd rather be a really good one-term president than a mediocre two-term president. And I -- and I believe that.

You know, there's a tendency in Washington to think that our job description of elected officials is to get re-elected. That's not our job description. Our job description is to solve problems and to help people. And, you know, that's not just the view of elected officials themselves. That's also the filter through which the media reads things.

And the reason I can say this with confidence is I've gone through this before. I went through this through the campaign.

When your poll numbers drop, you're an idiot. When your poll numbers are high, you're a genius. If my poll numbers are low, then I'm cool and cerebral and cold and detached. If my poll numbers are high, well, he's calm and reasoned.

So that's -- that's the filter through which a lot of this stuff is interpreted. But...

SAWYER: Do you think there's a lot of bed wetting, as David Plouffe said?

OBAMA: I do think that people are always thinking in the cable news cycle, and whatever appears that given day is how people view the world. That is not how I look at things. You know, I went to Iowa -- I went to Ohio last week on Friday. And I went to a company that the family had owned for years -- third generation. They make machine tools.

And you go and you talk to the workers there and you talk to the owners and then you go to the diner and you're meeting with people and talk to them. You know, they are not interested in whether Democrats are scoring points on Republicans or vice versa. What they're interested in is, you know, I can't get a loan from my bank right now. I'm trying to save for my kid's college education. You know, I'm worried that my 401(k), although it's bounced back a little bit, still doesn't leave me enough for retirement.

Those are the things that people talk to me about. And so that's what I spend a lot of my time thinking about.

SAWYER: Two diametrically opposing paths have been laid out by your supporters. One is come out swinging, go down for history, let everyone -- let the Republicans filibuster and do it and the other is slow down, scale back, less money. Which is it going to be?

OBAMA: Well, you know, I reject those two polar opposites. Here's what I can tell you. I will not slow down in terms of going after the big problems that this country faces because other countries aren't slow down.

SAWYER: But it's about money...

OBAMA: Asia is not slowing down. Europe's not slowing down. They're worried about getting the competitive advantage in terms of clean energy. They're worried about their kids. Our health-care system is unsustainable.

So on the big issues, I am going to keep on pushing not because I welcome controversy. The easiest thing for me to do -- the easiest thing for me to do, Diane, would be to go small bore, avoid controversy, just make sure that everybody's comfortable and we only propose things that don't threaten any special interests in Washington.

If you do that, then you can get a boost in the poll numbers but, ultimately, you're not solving problems that are vital to making sure the American dream continues for the next generation. And I don't want to look back on my time here and say to myself, all I was concerned about was nurturing my own popularity. That's not why I came.

And so the one thing that I think -- whether it's supporters or opponents -- should know is that I am not backing off the need for us to tackle these big problems in a serious way. Now, if there are ideas that...

SAWYER: Even if it's spending money?

OBAMA: Well, in some cases we are going to be saving money. We are going to have to be serious about the deficit in ways that we haven't been before. We've got to – we need a smarter government, not a bigger government, not a smaller government, we need a smarter government. And we don't have one right now. And that is part of the task before, for us this year and for several years to come.

SAWYER: Mr. President, a couple of quick questions, if I can about the terrorist threat against this country

OBAMA: Sure.

SAWYER: Because of what has happened recently. There are reports now of other potential suicide bombers coming out of Yemen. Osama bin Laden, as you know, has issued a tape championing the Christmas Day attempted bombing. Do you have any indication that they are already here?

OBAMA: Well, obviously, I don't want to talk about classified information. I can tell the American people this: That since 9/11 we have put in a series of measures, both on the intelligence side, militarily, as well as in Homeland Security, that make us much safer now than we were before 9/11.

SAWYER: And since Christmas?

OBAMA: Since Christmas, we have identified some additional holes that need to be filled. And I think everybody –

SAWYER: Not yet filled?

OBAMA: Well, no. I think many of them were immediately filled. But some of them, in terms of how we make sure that intelligence in one agency is immediately passed on to another. I think that is something that constantly is improved. And we're constantly learning how to do it better.

There is no doubt that there is a real terrorist threat out there. Al Qaeda, itself, is greatly weakened from where it was back in 2000. Bin Laden sending out a tape, trying to take credit for a Nigerian student, who engaged in a failed bombing attempt, is an indication of how weakened he is, because this is not something necessarily directed by him.

The concern that we have now is that if you have the lone wolf, or the small network, that can equip itself to try to engage in suicide attacks, those are in some ways folks that are even harder to catch than well-known terrorists like bin Laden. So we have to improve our cooperation, our work with countries like Yemen to make sure that we are catching those individuals ahead of time. In some cases they may not have records. They may not be known terrorists. And that makes the job harder.

This is part of the reason, though, why it is so important that we don't have a knee-jerk reaction that actually inflames the situation in the Muslim world. That we are measured, we are deliberate, we do everything we need for our security, but we also are engaged in the public diplomacy that makes sure that some lonely teenager, in some Muslim country, doesn't think that the way to belong is to engage in attacks against the United States. So, it can't just be a military response. It also has to be a diplomatic response. It also has to be us working in these countries on providing educational opportunity.

America has to be perceived as a country that is a force for good and that is why, I think, the extraordinary response of not just our government, but also the people of the United States, to a tragedy like Haiti is so important. It is important because it is the right thing to do, but it also shows that America's power is used, not just in a military fashion, but to make sure that people are getting help.

SAWYER: That's the signal. May I ask one family question then. Mrs. Obama, as you know, has always been the person we are told, who gauges you and gauges the world outside. In the past 78 hours, what's been the most -- 78, 48, one week, what's been most the important and useful thing she's said to you?

OBAMA: She told me that after we went to Sasha's basketball game that I need to show Sasha how to shoot her shot a little more effectively. So yesterday, we went out and went to the gym for about an hour and nothing was more therapeutic than taking my daughter to shoot some baskets. That's the stuff that grounds me.

But you know, I think, as I said before, Michelle and I now have been through these cycles enough where she has a lot of confidence that as long as I'm trying to do the right thing, as long as I'm focused on helping the people who sent me here, no matter how hard the decisions are, no matter how many times the politics may break in a different direction, that over time, people can tell if you're on their side or not. You know and so the most important thing for me is just to make sure that every day, I know who I'm fighting for and that we communicate that effectively. That we don't get so trapped in the bubble that people start thinking boy, he's been -- that Washington has changed him, instead of he's changing Washington.

Thank you.

SAWYER: So serious question, Colts/Saints.

OBAMA: You know, I think both teams are terrific. I guess I'm rooting a little bit for the Saints as the underdog partly just because when I think of what's happened in New Orleans over the last several years and how much that team means to them. You know, I'm pretty sympathetic. And Drew Brees came to visit here at the White House, a terrific young man, and he's done a lot not just for New Orleans, but also for military troops. I'm very impressed with him.

SAWYER: Two pictures: inauguration, first congressional speech. What would you say to him?

OBAMA: You're going to look older in a year. You've got more gray. But you know what, I'd say to him, stick with it. That's what I always tell myself, just stick with it. You know, the one thing that I think people in this town forget is that the kinds of political setbacks that we experience, they're nothing compared to the setbacks of a guy who loses his job is going through. He's sending out 100 resumes and he's not getting any answers back and his wife and kids are at home and he's thinking, am I going to be able to make sure that mortgage payments gets made? Am I going to be able to afford to keep my health insurance? Those are the kinds of setbacks that in some cases are life or death and yet Americans all across the country in circumstances like that, they get up every day, they go out for that next interview and they keep on interviewing until they find a job. Those are the people who inspire me. That's why when I get up in the morning, you know, I'm not worrying about what the latest headline is. I'm worrying about whether I'm being true to them.

END


Sources: AP, Politico, ABC News

Mike Huckabee's Approval Rating Outshines Pres. Obama's

Mike Huckabee In The Lead


A poll this far out is, naturally, not an actual electoral measure. But it tells you something about the president's standing and also, perhaps, about where exactly the space to his right lies.

Public Policy Polling:

For the first time in one of our monthly polls looking ahead to the 2012 Presidential election Barack Obama trails one of his hypothetical opponents, albeit by the smallest of margins.

Mike Huckabee has a 45-44 advantage over Obama, aided largely by a 44-38 lead with independents....Mitt Romney does the next best, trailing Obama 44-42.




2012 Presidential Poll


For the first time in one of our monthly polls looking ahead to the 2012 Presidential election Barack Obama trails one of his hypothetical opponents, albeit by the smallest of margins.

Mike Huckabee has a 45-44 advantage over Obama, aided largely by a 44-38 lead with independents. There continues to be no evidence of any negative fallout for Huckabee after murders of police officers committed by an ex-Arkansas inmate whose sentence he had commuted. His 35/29 favorability breakdown is actually slightly better than it was in November before that incident.

Mitt Romney does the next best, trailing Obama 44-42. His favorability is 36/32, and he's the most popular Republican among independents (41/32). Romney actually matches Huckabee with GOP voters this month and gets over 50%, ending a trend in his numbers that had seemed to spell difficulty for snagging a Republican nomination.

Sarah Palin trails Obama 49-41 largely because she loses 14% of the Republican vote to him, making her the only one of the GOP candidates we tested who Obama could get double digit crossover support against. At the same time Palin continues to be the most well liked potential GOP candidate within her party- at 71% favorability. Her problem appears to be that the Republicans who don't care for her will go so far as to vote for Obama instead of her.

Finally our blog readers voted for David Petraeus as our wild card Republican this month and his numbers come out as a mixed bag. He has the largest deficit against Obama, trailing 44-34. But at +13 his net favorability is better than the President or any of the other Republicans we tested. The problem for him is that the numbers break down 25/12- 63% of voters in the country don't know enough about him to have formed an opinion. Who knows if Petraeus would actually have any interest in going into politics, but if he did he would be introducing himself to many voters for the first time.

Is it a big deal that Barack Obama trails Mike Huckabee by a single point in January 2010? Not really- we're mostly doing this poll every month so that we can have the tracking data over time. But it does reflect the reality that Obama has work to do in winning back over some of the folks who voted for him in 2008.

Full results here.


Sources: Politico, Public Policy Polling

Obama White House Not Listening To Base Supporters

Why is Pres. Obama no longer listening to his base? Why has the Obama White House suddenly become "tone deaf" to America's urgent needs...JOBS??

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Pres. Obama's Approval Ratings have dropped below 50%.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Sources: MSNBC

Gov Bev Perdue's Approval Rating Drops To Low 20s

Gov Bev Perdue's "fumbles" reflected in numbers mired in 20s


As anyone who pays attention to polling already knows, Public Policy Polling in Raleigh is regarded as a Democratic institution, doing a lot of work for Democrats. But they've also noticed that PPP doesn't pull punches for Democrats, either.

Case in point: Gov. Bev Perdue, a Democrat and first woman to be elected either lieutenant governor (serving from 2001-09) and first woman to be governor. Her approval numbers most of this year have been abysmal, falling into the 20s range and staying there.

Recent polls have detected a bit of an upswing for Perdue, thought to reflect some public approval of her hard-line stance against the release of life-term inmates convicted in the 1970s or her efforts to jump-start completion of the I-485 Outer Loop in Charlotte.

But PPP analyst Tom Jensen does not find much good in the numbers for Perdue. She's one of the eight "least popular" governors in the country, he notes. He says, "Perdue's fumbles in the middle of the year turned North Carolina voters against her" and her advisers need to do something dramatic to change the way voters view her. Here's his latest analysis:

As Bev Perdue's first year in office comes to a close there's really nothing positive that can be gleaned from her poll numbers.

Her approval rating is mired in the 20s, as it has been for most of the second half of 2009, and voters in the state don't think she's been improving her performance or that it will get any better in 2010.

Perdue's approval comes in at 27% this month, with 53% of voters disapproving of her. After her numbers plummeted between February and May they've remained very consistent, with her approval coming in between 24 and 30% every month since June and her disapproval registering between 49 and 55% each of those months.

A PPP analysis of approval polls on Governors last week found that Perdue is one of the eight least popular in the country. Her two fellow newly elected Democratic Governors, Jay Nixon of Missouri and Jack Markell of Delaware, found far superior approval ratings of 42/25 and 40/31 in recent PPP surveys.

Perdue's approval woes were spawned from the legislative session and difficult business of balancing the budget and there had been some speculation that her numbers would approve once that was in the rear view mirror. But only 18% of voters in the state think that Perdue's performance has improved since the legislators went home.

There's likewise little optimism from the state's voters that Perdue will learn from the mistakes of year 1 and do a better job in the second year of her term. Just 32% of voters express the sentiment that Perdue will do a better job in 2010 than she has in 2009 with 44% saying they think she will not and 24% unsure.

Perdue's fumbles in the middle of the year turned North Carolina voters against her, and nothing she's done since has changed their minds. It's pretty clear at this point that piecemeal, incremental changes in the Governor's way of doing business are not going to win the voters back to her. Something needs to change dramatically if she's going to get public opinion about her turned around, and while the exact nature of that is beyond my pay grade her team should be looking for it.

And regardless of how much Perdue might shrug off her poll numbers they do matter. Out of her fellow seven Governors in the 'least popular' club four are not seeking reelection next year and three are currently favored to lose their party's primaries if they do vie for another term. Perdue will likely be facing a choice between those two scenarios a year and a half from now if things have not gotten back on the right track.

More immediately a Governor with an approval rating in the 20s doesn't have much political capital to get legislators who have to run for reelection in 2010 to do much of anything she wants if it's risky/controversial during the short session. Vulnerable incumbents are going to jump off her ship before it sinks them too.

It will be interesting to see if anything changes or if Perdue keeps slogging along.



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Sources: Public Policy Polling, McClatchy Newspapers, Charlotte Observer, Wikipedia, Google Maps