Democrats Fight But Prepare For 2010 GOP Sweep: Obama's Low Ratings

Preston On Politics: Democrats Prepare For The Worst: Decision 2010


It has been said over and over again: The 2010 midterm is the anti-incumbent, anti-Washington and by virtue of their position in power, the anti-Democratic election.

A sputtering economy, 9.6 percent national unemployment rate, housing crisis and little hope for a quick turnaround on the jobs front has forced Democrats on the defense heading into November.

OK, that is an understatement.

Democrats are under siege all across the country and are in deep danger of losing control of the House and if a massive wave develops on November 2, perhaps even the Senate.

Fueled by a huge fundraising effort by the Republican Governors Association, the GOP is also in position to reclaim more than a half dozen governorships including in states that President Obama easily won in 2008 such as Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

The new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation Polls offers data that shows Democrats running for Senate seats in four key states are in dire straits and a president with little juice to help propel them to victory.

In all four of these states: Alaska, Arkansas, Florida and Ohio, Obama's job approval rating ranges from a low of 33 percent (Arkansas) to a high of 42 percent (Ohio). The anti-Washington, thus anti-Democratic, theme shines like a bright neon sign in each of these races.

And the GOP's rubber stamp argument seems to be resonating with voters, whether it is true or not: Sending, say, Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln back to Washington means she will be a rubber stamp for Obama. Lincoln, who stuck to her centrist views and beat back a strong primary challenge from her political left earlier this year, is trailing her GOP opponent, Rep. John Boozman, by 14 points.

In Ohio, Democratic Senate nominee Lee Fisher is down 15 points to Republican Rob Portman. And in Florida, GOP Senate nominee Marco Rubio has a 26 point lead over Democrat Kendrick Meek in a three way race that also features Charlie Crist. Crist is running an independent bid for the Senate seat and trails Rubio by 14 points.

(The National Republican Senatorial Committee is also making the claim to West Virginia voters that the popular Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin would be a rubber stamp for Obama if elected to the Senate).

But the Democrats running for governor in three of four of these states surveyed by CNN/Time/ORC shows that these candidates are either competitive or leading in their individual races. Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe has a 27-point lead over his GOP rival Jim Keet; Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is up one point over Republican opponent John Kasich; and in the race for Florida governor, Democrat Alex Sink trails Republican Rick Scott by three points, which is within the poll's 3.5 percent margin of error.

So, I think it is fair to say -- outside of Alaska -- that Democratic incumbents and candidates in these three states are not being stuck in the same category as their Democratic counterparts running for Senate. That is not to say the national mood is not having a negative affect on these Democrats, it just hasn't been devastating.

As for the CNN/Time/ORC Poll, I dug a little deeper into the survey and found these interesting data points:

Alaska: Lisa Murkowski obviously faces a difficult challenge in having her supporters correctly write-in her name on the ballot on November 2. The poll shows that Murkowski and GOP nominee Joe Miller are tied at 37 percent, with Democratic nominee Scott McAdams registering support at 23 percent. But when respondents were asked if they might choose another candidate if they think the write-in procedure is too complicated, 3 percent answered yes. So, take that 3 percent away from Murkowski's 37 percent and all of a sudden Miller is up three points. Murkowski is still within in the margin of error, but as CNN Polling Director Keating Holland noted "in a tight race, this might be the difference between winning and losing."

Murkowski's greatest support comes from Anchorage and the Panhandle, while Miller wins Fairbanks and the Anchorage area when you expand it beyond the city limits.

Arkansas: How troubling is this for Democrat Blanche Lincoln? She is losing the woman vote to Republican John Boozman by eight points. She performs strongest in the east, while Boozman wins every other region of the state.

Florida: Republican Marco Rubio is winning independents by four points over Charlie Crist, who is running an independent bid. Rubio's lead is within the 6 percent margin of error. Rubio is also winning every corner of the state except southern Florida/Miami area where Crist holds a modest lead over the Republican nominee and the Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. In the governor's race, Democrat Alex Sink is losing every region to Republican Rick Scott, but is crushing him in the southern Florida/Miami area. Sink, too, has soft support with women. She leads Scott by five points with women voters, but that is within the 5 percent margin of error for that specific question.

Ohio: In the Senate contest, Democrat Lee Fisher is losing to Republican Rob Portman among men and woman and in every age category. Geographically, Fisher leads Portman in the Cleveland area by eight points, but that is within the 8.5 percent margin of error. Portman is winning in every other part of the state. As for the competitive governor's race, Ted Strickland is winning women, while John Kasich wins men.

Strickland has a 15-point lead over Kasich with voters who earn less than $50,000, while Kasich has an 11-point lead over Strickland with voters who earn more than $50,000. Kasich has an 11-point lead over Strickland with independents. As for geographic regions, Strickland is leading in the Cleveland area and the central part of the state (the latter is within the margin of error), while Kasich is carrying Cincinnati/Dayton and has a slight lead in Columbus. In the industrial north, the two candidates are dead even.


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Sources: CNN, MSNBC, Politico, Google Maps

Tea Party Express Target List For 2010 Mid-Term Elections

Tea Party Express Targets These Incumbents During 2010 Elections


The Tea Party Express is out with its list of targets in the November midterms.

No Republicans, and no surprises:

Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada; Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas; Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, and Barbara Boxer of California.

The list for the House isn’t as extensive as we thought it might be, but like the tea party movement itself, the list seems fluid and could likely expand: Betsy Markey of Colorado; Alan Grayson of Florida; Baron Hill of Indiana; Barney Frank of Massachusetts; Dina Titus of Nevada; John Spratt of South Carolina; Tom Perriello and Gerry Connolly of Virginia, and Alan Mollohan of West Virginia.

But what would a tea party be without some recognition of the movement’s heroes? (There’s a surprise at the end!)

The Tea Party Express, holding a series of events in Washington today in part to complain about Tax Day and how the federal government is spending money, endorsed these Senate candidates: Sen. Jim DeMint, running for re-election in South Carolina, and Chuck DeVore running in California; Marco Rubio in Florida; Rand Paul in Kentucky; Todd Tiahrt in Kansas, Sharron Angle in Nevada, and Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania.

For re-election to the House, the list includes Tom McClintock of California, Tom Price of Georgia; Mike Pence of Indiana; Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, Joe Wilson of South Carolina… and Walt Minnick of Idaho – a Democrat.


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Sources: Wall Street Journal, Tea Party Express, Youtube, Google Maps

Lincoln Says "Yes" Too (60)...All Aboard For Health Care Reform Test Vote!

Blanche Lincoln: "I will vote in support of Health Care Reform."

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Mary Landrieu agrees to vote yes for Health Care Reform and Progress.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Sen. Blanche Lincoln also on board, 60 in hand



Sen. Blanche Lincoln is a yes for debating health reform, but a no for the public option, and she and fellow centrists are making clear they expect Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to scrap his current plan for a government-run insurance program.

Lincoln (D-Ark.) announced Saturday that she’d deliver the deciding vote to push forward with a sweeping health reform plan, ending days of speculation over whether President Barack Obama’s signature priority would proceed to the Senate floor or suffer a debilitating blow.

But Lincoln and fellow moderate Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) also laid down strong objections to the public health insurance plan included in the Senate bill – saying they couldn’t support the bill if it came to the floor in that form.

“I am opposed to a new government administered public health care plan as a part of comprehensive health care reform, and I will not vote in favor of the proposal that has been introduced by Leader Reid as it is written,” Lincoln said.

Lincoln, who is facing a tough-reelection fight in 2010, also put fellow Democrats on notice about the political stakes in her race — saying she’s already faced some $3.3 million in ads trying to sway her vote on the bill, from the left and the right.

And she laid down a laundry list of concerns, most of which also are shared by her fellow centrists – that the bill not increase the deficit, protects seniors on Medicare, makes insurance more affordable for small businesses and enhances competition with private insurers, all without a public option.

The final vote is scheduled for 8 p.m., but with Lincoln’s announcement in hand, Reid has the 60 votes he needs to begin debate on the bill after Thanksgiving and break any Republican attempt to hold up debate. Republicans said they wouldn’t give up the fight.

"The battle has just begun," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told reporters shortly after Lincoln signaled her support for the procedural motion. "We are going to do everything and anything we can to prevent this measure from becoming law."

Reid’s bill would cover 94 percent of all Americans by creating a public health insurance option that gives states a chance to "opt-out" of the program, increasing subsidies for those who can’t afford insurance and requiring individuals to own insurance. But some of the moderates think that goes too far. Landreiu suggested she'd be open to a plan with a "trigger," where the public option would kick if private insurers didn't increase coverage fast enough. Lincoln made no mention of the trigger.

Even if Reid can work out a compromise with moderates on the public option, he still face a difficult fight ahead with the House, which includes a more liberal version of a public option and a millionaires tax to pay for it. The two chambers would have reconcile their bills, and Obama is trying to hold them to a strict year-end deadline to complete work.

Landrieu said she has been in discussions with other centrists, as well as Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), an outspoken advocate of the public option who also served a point man on negotiations with moderates.

“I believe it is going to be very clear at some point very soon that there are not 60 votes for the current provision in the bill and that the leader and the leadership will have to make a decision, and I trust they will figure out how to do that,” Landrieu said.

“Our caucus knows this is a real serious issue for us from the beginning,” Landrieu said. “A third are for the public option, a third are adamantly against and a third are in the middle. I am adamantly against but would consider a principled compromise because I understand this is one of the issues we have to find a solution for or it could blow up the whole effort.”

For a day at least, Reid could breathe a sigh of relief, having passed a major test of his leadership by holding together 58 Democrats and 2 independents on a bill that doesn’t pass muster with many of them.

Two of those planning to vote yes today – Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) and Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) have already said they’d join a filibuster of the bill, Nelson to strengthen its abortion restrictions and Lieberman to stop the public option. Lieberman has said he believes other Democrats would do the same, though none warned of that in remarks Saturday.

Landrieu announced her vote earlier in the day. "My vote today to move forward on this important debate should in no way to be construed as . . .an indication of how I might vote as this debate comes to an end," she warned. "It is a vote to move forward. … But much more work needs to be done.”

Some Democrats – including Obama – have signaled a preference for the trigger as a possible way to bridge deep divides in the party between liberals and moderates over the public option. And it has the support of a key Republican, favored by Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine).

Landrieu also was unapologetic in describing how she sought more help for her state in the health-reform negotiations – even saying reports that she got $100 million more in Medicaid dollar for Louisiana were false. It was really $300 million, she said.

“I’m proud to have asked for it. I’m proud to have fought for it, and I will continue to. That is not the reason I’m moving to the debate,” Landrieu said.

Speaking with reporters after her speech, Landrieu said the 72-hour delay between the bill’s introduction and the vote helped secure her support. It gave her time to read through the legislation, talk with Louisiana constituents, and meet with experts, including Jonathan Gruber, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor and ally of the White House.

She said her state is “very divided” on health care reform, but decided the debate needed to move forward because the current health system is broken. She reiterated that the bill does not have her support – and she would vote against if it looks the same at the end of the amendment process.

Landrieu’s announcement came as Democrats and Republican kicked off a day-long floor debate Saturday ahead of an 8 p.m. vote. Republicans called the $848 billion bill a budget-busting, tax-raising monstrosity that would hurts seniors, small business and families. Democrats accused them of scare-mongering and said the bill is a sensible and long-overdue fix to a badly broken health care system.

And both sides sparred over the nature of Saturday’s vote – with Democrats saying it’s merely a chance for debate to begin and Republicans saying it’s a back-door endorsement of the $848 billion plan.

“Senators who support this bill have a lot of explaining to do, a lot of explaining to do,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said, in comments seemingly aimed at the wavering moderates Landrieu and Lincoln.

"The Democrat plan would make life harder for the vast majority of Americans. It raises their taxes, it raises their health care premiums, it cuts their Medicare and drives millions off the private insurance they currently have. When fully implemented, this plan would cost $2.5 trillion. That's the equivalent of three failed stimulus bills," McConnell said.

Reid called McConnell’s remarks “Orwellian” – suggesting he was trying to squelch a free and open debate on the merits of health reform.

“All we’re asking today is have, a debate on it. Why would anybody be afraid in the greatest debating society supposedly in the world to debate health care? What are they afraid of?” Reid said.

Landrieu had telegraphed her yes vote today as the week wore on, even telling POLITICO Friday night that she was “leaning towards” voting to open the debate.

But she outlined a long list of concerns with the current bill – including its later start date of 2014 and the inclusion of a public health insurance option, with a chance for states to “opt-out” of that plan. She expressed a preference for a “trigger” option that would allow a public plan to kick in if private insurance couldn’t expand coverage fast enough.

“The key elements of this health care reform bill, I repeat: reduces short-and-long term debt, expands coverage, promotes choice and competition, reforms the insurance market, improves quality of care,” Reid said.

He also said McConnell’s frequent warning about the health bill raising the deficit showed that “my friend, the distinguished Republican leader is living in a different world than everyone else.”

Republicans, however, hammered the theme that the bill would run big taxes and big deficits and not deliver the promised improvements to the health care system.

“The bill is just too much, goes too far, too fast, costs too much. The American people know this. That’s why they oppose this bill,” said Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) “They’re not opposed to reform and progress. They’re opposed to this legislation.”



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Sources: Politico, MSNBC, AP, Google Maps

Mary Landrieu Says "Yes" To Health Care Reform Test Vote!...Next Blanche Lincoln

Mary Landrieu a "yes", now all eyes on Blanche Lincoln


It’s down to one.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s hopes of pushing ahead with a sweeping health reform plan got a boost Saturday when Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) said she will vote to start debate.

"My vote today to move forward on this important debate should in no way to be construed as . . .an indication of how I might vote as this debate comes to an end," she warned in comments on the Senate floor. "It is a vote to move forward. … But much more work needs to be done.”

The news first broke on the Senate Democratic Twitter feed around 12:30 p.m. “Sen Landrieu will vote yes to allow debate. . .,” it read.

That left Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) as the lone holdout and the would-be 60th vote needed to allow President Barack Obama’s vision of health reform to make its way to the Senate floor after Thanksgiving.

Democrats expect Lincoln to vote yes on the debate – and at this late stage, a no vote would be a devastating blow to Obama’s plans. But she’s been cagey, denying a comment by Sen. Dick Durbin Friday that she’d already told Reid how she’d vote.

Landrieu had telegraphed her yes vote today as the week wore on, even telling POLITICO Friday night that she was “leaning towards” voting to open the debate.

But in her comments on the floor, she outlined a long list of concerns with the current bill – including its later start date of 2014 and the inclusion of a public health insurance option, with a chance for states to “opt-out” of that plan. She expressed a preference for a “trigger” option that would allow a public plan to kick in if private insurance couldn’t expand coverage fast enough.

Some Democrats – including President Barack Obama – has signaled a preference for the trigger as a possible way to bridge deep divides in the party between liberals and moderates over the public option. And it has the support of a key Republican, Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine).

Landrieu also was unapologetic in describing how she sought more help for her state in the health-reform negotiations – even saying reports that she got $100 million more in Medicaid dollar for Louisiana were false. It was really $300 million, she said.

“I’m proud to have asked for it. I’m proud to have fought for it, and I will continue to. That is not the reason I’m moving to the debate,” Landrieu said.

Landrieu’s announcement came as Democrats and Republican kicked off a day-long floor debate Saturday ahead of an 8 p.m. vote. Republicans called the $848 billion bill a budget-busting, tax-raising monstrosity that would hurts seniors, small business and families. Democrats accused them of scare-mongering and said the bill is a sensible and long-overdue fix to a badly broken health care system.

And both sides sparred over the nature of Saturday’s vote – with Democrats saying it’s merely a chance for debate to begin and Republicans saying it’s a back-door endorsement of the $848 billion plan.

“Senators who support this bill have a lot of explaining to do, a lot of explaining to do,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said, in comments seemingly aimed at the wavering moderates Landrieu and Lincoln.

"The Democrat plan would make life harder for the vast majority of Americans. It raises their taxes, it raises their health care premiums, it cuts their Medicare and drives millions off the private insurance they currently have. When fully implemented, this plan would cost $2.5 trillion. That's the equivalent of three failed stimulus bills," McConnell said.

Reid called McConnell’s remarks “Orwellian” – suggesting he was trying to squelch a free and open debate on the merits of health reform.

“All we’re asking today is have, a debate on it. Why would anybody be afraid in the greatest debating society supposedly in the world to debate health care? What are they afraid of?” Reid said.

“The key elements of this health care reform bill, I repeat: reduces short-and-long term debt, expands coverage, promotes choice and competition, reforms the insurance market, improves quality of care,” Reid said.

He also said McConnell’s frequent warning about the health bill raising the deficit showed that “my friend, the distinguished Republican leader is living in a different world than everyone else.”

Republicans, however, hammered the theme that the bill would run big taxes and big deficits and not deliver the promised improvements to the health care system.

“The bill is just too much, goes too far, too fast, costs too much. The American people know this. That’s why they oppose this bill,” said Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) “They’re not opposed to reform and progress. They’re opposed to this legislation.”

Reid’s bill would cover 94 percent of all Americans by creating a public health insurance option, increasing subsidies for those who can’t afford insurance and requiring individuals to own insurance. Reid would pay for the bill by raising taxes on insurers who offer so-called Cadillac tax plans, bumping up Medicare taxes for the wealthy and creating a “Botox tax” on cosmetic surgery.

The House passed its version of health reform two weeks ago – which includes a more liberal version of a public option and a millionaires tax to pay for it. The two chambers would have reconcile their bills, and Obama is trying to hold them to a strict year-end deadline to complete work.



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Sources: Politico, Google Maps

Health Care Reform Now Rests On Harry Reid's Shoulders...Poor Guy

What to watch for in today's Health Care Reform debate



Nancy Pelosi did it. Can Harry Reid?

Two Saturdays ago, Pelosi passed health reform on a squeaker of a House vote. Today, Reid can’t spare a single Democrat as the Senate decides whether to start debate. If not, President Barack Obama’s reform hopes suffer immeasurable harm.

That said, things were looking good at daybreak, as Reid can be reasonably confident of 59 votes, with Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) a yes vote and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) leaning yes. The holdout: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), who has been a fan of reform generally but faces a tough 2010 re-election fight.

In theory, Reid’s job should actually be easier than Pelosi’s. The House voted on final passage. Reid is just asking the Senate to begin debate. But the vote is more than that – it’s a test lab for the ideas, arguments and battle tactics that both sides will carry into an epic showdown over health reform next month.

The debate runs all day with the vote scheduled for 8 p.m. To cut through all the speechifying and straight to what matters, POLITICO offers these things to watch.

Harry Reid’s three-step.

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is now a fully owned subsidiary of the Senate Majority Leader’s office and its fate and the political fortunes of its author are intimately intertwined. Reid needs to deliver reform.

“His entire political future is predicated on a campaign that ‘I get things done and I can get things done for this nation and Nevada,’” said Nevada political analyst and columnist Jon Ralston. “It really undermines that campaign if he can’t get it done.”

Reid’s decision to include a public insurance option was largely viewed as a political move to satisfy the labor unions and progressive activists he’ll need to campaign for him when he runs for re-election next year. That’s Harry Reid, the endangered Senate candidate.

But Reid comes to the chamber in two other roles. As Senate ringmaster, he’s trying to keep his diverse constituency safe and away from too-tough votes. But as White House point man, he’s trying to deliver Obama-style reform, on an Obama-style schedule, before the end of the year.

Those roles can conflict on the Senate floor. Already, the White House has signaled a preference for the “trigger” on a public option but Reid picked the plan with a state opt-out, arguably a more liberal version that could cause him trouble with moderates.

Listening to Lincoln

Look for Lincoln, Landrieu, Nelson and fellow centrists to go to great lengths to explain how their vote is not a vote for reform, but simply an OK to talk about reform.

“If you don’t like the bill, then why would you block your own opportunity to amend it?” Nelson said earlier this week.

Aside from the obligatory nods to small-d democracy, the real clue to Harry Reid’s future headaches is what else they say. Expect to hear Nelson’s concerns about federal funding for abortions, Sen. Joe Lieberman’s stiff opposition to a public insurance plan and Landrieu’s worries about how the plan will affect small businesses.

Already, Lieberman and Nelson have said they’ll join Republicans in blocking the bill if their concerns aren’t met. Watch to see if any other moderates go that far Saturday.

And listen for how forcefully the centrists make their demands. Landrieu spoke up and got an extra $100 million in Medicaid funding sent to Louisiana.

But what will Lincoln say? She’s been cagey for months and has tried to calibrate her remarks – particularly on the public option – to avoid upsetting either side of the debate. Today’s her day to speak up and lay down the must-haves – part of the maze of moderate demands Reid must navigate before he can pass a bill.

The future Republican TV ads

In many ways, Saturday’s vote is the real kickoff to Campaign 2010 for the Senate. Republicans will begin sharpening their attacks into what will become familiar refrains over the next year should reform pass.

First off, Republicans will push back hard against Democrats “procedural” argument and call the vote an implicit endorsement of Reid’s bill. And they’ll say it greases reform’s path to final passage. A Congressional Research Service report found that over the past decade, 97 percent of the bills subject to a 60-vote threshold to begin debate eventually passed.

But health care reform plays into the larger GOP narrative of an Obama White House bent on wrapping its fingers around every industry and taxpayer until it has plucked every ounce of capitalism from the economy. So look for Republicans to cast the bill as a government takeover of health care that raises taxes and premiums on Americans while endangering seniors with drastic Medicare cuts.

“It's a quarter- trillion in Medicare cuts; between $400 billion and $500 billion in new taxes; and higher insurance premiums for 85 percent of the American people who already have health insurance. That's the core of the bill,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Friday.

One problem for Democrats – polls show a lot of the American people are worried about just that. So naturally, they’ll be highlighting the other parts of the bill that are surefire winners, like ending denials of coverage for pre-existing conditions.

Hot-button pushing

They are some of the debate’s most familiar and much-debated issues. The public option: government takeover of health care, or honest competitor to the private sector? Rationing: is it in the bill, or not?

Each issue has flared and then cooled in almost regular cycles throughout the year and a floor debate may spark any one of them again. Federal funding for abortions almost derailed reform in the House two weeks ago. So keep an eye out for new developments that could reignite these always-smoldering issues.

Charges of health-care rationing are likely to get a lot of play Saturday, as Republicans seize on confusing new guidelines for mammograms and pap smears to raise questions about government interference in health care.

And if there’s a contender in the Senate bill for a surprise last-minute fight, it could be immigration reform, as Reid put in tough language that bars illegal immigrants from buying health insurance in the exchange and bars legal immigrants from government health services for five years, measures that Hispanic Democrats oppose.

The Mainers

Don’t forget the two GOP senators from Maine who Democrats see as their best opportunity to bring a splash of Republican red to a very blue bill.

The spotlight has largely subsided since Sen. Olympia Snowe endorsed the Senate Finance Committee bill last month. But Reid and President Obama continue talking to Snowe and her colleague Sen. Susan Collins.

“The conversations have to translate into something specific,” Snowe said on Thursday, illustrating her frustration that the reform has only moved further left since October.

Democrats may get a better sense of just how much those talks have swayed the senators – if at all – should they take the mike today. Their comments over the past few days suggest it’s going to be a tough sell.

“When Americans understandably are so upset about the high cost of health care and when health insurance premiums are going up by double digits, making it so difficult for most Americans to afford health insurance, the last thing we should be doing is to make the situation worse,” Collins said in a Friday floor speech.

But here’s the twist – Obama has hinted to his fellow Democrats that he’s in favor of one thing that’s not in the Reid bill, a public option “trigger” that only kicks in if the private sector fails to expand coverage enough. It's a provision Snowe supports. If Reid can’t muster the votes for his version of a public option, the trigger could make a reappearance, and with it, the hunt for even a single GOP vote.





US House passes historic Health Care Reform bill


The House of Representatives passed legislation for the first time Saturday night that would provide health coverage to almost every American after nearly a century of false starts and un-kept campaign promises.

The final vote was 220-215. In all, 219 Democrats voted to approve the measure in a largely party-line vote, with 39 Democrats voting no. One Republican supported the bill, Rep. Joseph Cao (R-La.).

The bill has a steep cost – both in dollars, $1.2 trillion, and political capital – but Democrats hailed its passage as the next chapter in a governing legacy that produced Medicare and Social Security.

“Oh what a night,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi said moments after the vote, after fielding a congratulatory call from President Barack Obama. “Without President Obama in the White House, this victory would not have been possible. He provided the vision and the momentum for us to get the job done for the American people.”

Obama has made health care reform his signature legislative priority — and he put his personal prestige on the line Saturday by traveling to the Capitol to rally Democrats, telling them to “answer the call of history” by passing the bill.

In a written statement after the vote, Obama hailed the House bill as one that would “make real the promise of quality affordable health care for the American people.”

But Republicans were equally sweeping in their condemnation of the bill. “This is perhaps the worst bill I have seen come to the floor in my 11 years in Congress,” said Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan.

The bill includes fundamental changes to the American health care system – creating a public health insurance option to compete with private insurers and for the first time, requiring employers to offer health insurance.

The path ahead remains shaky – for the bill and for many of the Democrats who voted to approve it. Party leaders need to mend the bruised feelings that will linger from this debate before they can address whatever legislation the Senate can produce.

And in the Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid is still struggling to find 60 votes for Senate legislation and made clear he might not meet the White House’s Christmas deadline to pass a bill. Obama said in his statement, however, that he expects to sign a bill this year.

Fights over abortion, immigration and the size of the federal government exposed long-standing cultural and regional divides within the disparate Democratic caucus. A last-minute abortion fight left a particularly bitter taste in the mouth of Democratic women who spent the early part of their careers fighting for reproductive rights.

“People are furious,” said Colorado Rep. Diana DeGette.

After hours of negotiations with a group of abortion opponents, led by Indiana Rep. Brad Ellsworth, and the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, Pelosi made a final painful sacrifice to pick up crucial support, allowing a vote on an amendment sponsored by Ellsworth and Michigan Rep. Bart Stupak that would bar any insurance company participating in the exchange program from covering the procedure.

Stupak’s amendment passed with a vote of 240 -194-1. Republican Rep. John Shadegg of Arizona was the one present vote.

On abortion, the two sides engaged in a fevered debate on the House floor hours before the House approved the overarching health care bill, with DeGette calling the amendment “a wolf in sheep’s clothing” and Connecticut Rep. Rosa DeLauro, a Pelosi ally, saying, “It attempts an unprecedented overreach.”

But in the end, Democrats, like DeGette, subverted their political prerogatives and personal anger for a bigger goal – providing health care to 96 percent of the country.

“I don't believe any of us believe we can hold up what we've been fighting for ... and that's health care," said Rules Committee Chairwoman Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.), who left her own chamber when the panel granted Stupak his vote.

The bill would expand coverage to 36 million uninsured Americans through a mix of subsidies and incentives and mandates on individuals and businesses. Under the plan, individuals would have to secure insurance through their employers or through an insurance exchange established by the bill. Authors set aside subsidies to help lower- and middle-income Americans who don’t qualify for Medicaid pay for that insurance.

In an effort to lower premiums across the marketplace, House Democrats would create a government insurance option to compete with private insurers that would operate in the exchange. And businesses with more than $500,000 in annual payroll would be required to cover their employees or pay a penalty of as much as 8 percent of the combined salaries.

Republicans oppose almost every aspect of the bill, from the cost to the requirements on individuals and small businesses. They characterized the creation of a so-called public plan as a “government takeover of the health care system.” And members of the minority malign the president and his congressional allies for failing to make a genuine effort at bipartisanship.

Republican Leader John Boehner called the requirement that individuals purchase insure "the most unconstitutional thing I've seen in my life."

The GOP is also gambling that voters will reward them for their unified opposition to the package. For months, Republicans have been chomping at the bit to hang this vote around the necks of vulnerable Democrats. The National Republican Congressional Committee chastised those who were on the fence and tore into anyone who publicly supported it. Throughout the floor debate Saturday night, Republicans referred to the bill as “The Pelosi Plan,” in a bid to tar the legislation with her label.

The vote amounts to a big win for Pelosi and her leadership team. Her No. 2, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), spent much of the year patiently working the caucus, and a roster of supporting players ushered the bill through three committees of jurisdiction and two turbulent months of internal negotiations that produced the final bill.

Pelosi and her team got a big push Saturday morning from Obama, who steered clear of legislative details to focus on the historic impact of the vote, comparing the reform push to the establishment of Social Security and Medicare – and reminding Democrats that both were criticized by those who predicted they would eventually lead to the country's collapse.

Obama also reminded them that voting no on the health care bill wouldn’t insulate them from Republican attacks anyway.

“Remember why you got into politics in the first place and when you do, remember we can’t afford to let this moment pass,” Obama told Democrats during a 30-minute speech in the Cannon Caucus Room Saturday morning, according to the notes of one attendee. “When I’m in the Rose Garden signing a piece of legislation to give health care to all Americans, we’ll look back and say that was our finest moment.”

Congressional Democrats echoed their president all day Saturday by highlighting the historic context of this vote.

Michigan Rep. John Dingell, who presided over Medicare’s passage in 1965 and whose father first introduced universal health care in 1943, presided over debate again from the speaker’s chair. Pelosi and others invoked Ted Kennedy’s name repeatedly. And Democrats were quick to remind each other that Saturday was the third anniversary of the 2006 election, when they bounced Republicans from power for the first time in 12 years.

When Dingell closed, he hobbled from the podium back to his seat as his colleagues rose in applause. He then exchanged a hug with Pelosi, and Hoyer came from his seat to shake his hand.

But the day belonged to Pelosi. The speaker spent months leaning on her members to iron out their issues. And the ever-practical former whip abandoned her own priorities when the votes weren’t there on abortion and a stronger version of government-sponsored insurance.

The speaker, in resplendent red, got a surprise Saturday when her grandkids made an unexpected visit to the Capitol as she scrambled to corral the final votes she needs for this historic bill. Her two grandsons ran through the hallways of her office as she called wavering Democrats, an aide said. At least one member could hear them in the background as Pelosi tried to secure that lawmaker’s vote.

“For nearly a century, leaders of every party and political philosophy – as far back as Teddy Roosevelt - have called for health care for the American people,” Pelosi said. “For generations, the American people have called for affordable, quality health care for their families. Today, the call will be answered.”



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Sources: Politico, Google Maps