Since GOP leaders have Deep pockets & more than enough money to beat Pres. Obama, Democrat & Independent Candidates this year, the ONLY way Pres. Obama is sure to win his bid for Re-election is via Widespread National Voter Support.
As it stands Mitt Romney has NOTHING to use against Pres. Obama other than Negative Ads & lots of $$$$.
But...
American Voters are not stupid!
If Pres. Obama garners the majority of Popular Voter Support in his corner, he can squeak out a Win against Romney.
President Barack Obama leads all of the Republican presidential candidates in Virginia, and it doesn't appear that putting Gov. Bob McDonnell on the ticket would help, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday.
The poll, which was conducted March 13-18 with 1,034 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, shows Obama with a 50-42 percent margin over Mitt Romney. That is his biggest lead over Romney in this election cycle, according to Quinnipiac's polling.
If Republicans opt for McDonnell as their vice presidential nominee, Quinnipiac said that would not help the GOP carry the state. An Obama-Biden ticket against Romney and McDonnell had Democrats winning, 50-43 percent.
"What this Quinnipiac University survey finds is that despite the governor's approval ratings with Virginia voters, he does not appear to help give the GOP the state's electoral votes," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Other results from Quinnipiac's poll:
Obama wins head-to-head against other Republican contenders:
* 54-35 percent over Newt Gingrich; * 49-40 percent over Rick Santorum; * 49-39 percent over Ron Paul.
"President Barack Obama has opened up some daylight in Virginia against his Republican challengers," Brown said. "His margin over Romney, in the state where Obama has been struggling after his win in 2008, compares to a slight 47-43 percent lead in February."
"The president's lead over Romney in Virginia is due mainly to his strong margin among women, 52-39 percent, but he also wins 48 percent of men to Romney's 45 percent," Brown said.
According to the poll, Obama grabs 97 percent of Democrats in the state and 46 percent of independent voters compared to Romney's 43 percent. Romney leads with Republicans, 84-6 percent.
Meanwhile, according to the poll, Virginia voters approve 49-47 percent of the job the president is doing, Obama's best score in almost a year, and say 49-47 percent he deserves to be reelected, also his best score.
Rick Vetter and his teen son got a pretty good look at the legal line between privacy and security last month, as they wrapped up a day trip to Charlotte, North Carolina.
After watching the NFL's Atlanta Falcons beat the Carolina Panthers, they were looking forward to a three-hour train ride back home to Raleigh when they arrived at the train station.
Walking up a ramp toward the platform, they noticed what appeared to be a uniformed Transportation Security Administration officer holding a leashed police dog.
"He just loosened the leash on the dog, and the dog came over to check me out," Vetter said. Standing on the platform above Vetter were three other officers who appeared to be wearing bullet-proof vests.
As the guard dog smelled him, Vetter -- who has two dogs of his own -- told the officer that it probably was reacting to the smell of Vetter's pets.
"The TSA officer said 'OK' or something like that. Then it was clear that the dog had done what he needed to do, and we went on up the ramp to get on the train."
"I'm sure somebody who wasn't comfortable with dogs would have found it a lot more disconcerting than I did, but I sort of didn't worry about it," said Vetter, an attorney for the Environmental Protection Agency.
The Vetters had encountered VIPR -- special TSA Visible Intermodal Prevention and Response teams that are tasked with performing random, unpredictable baggage and security checks at passenger train, subway and bus stations as well as trucking weigh stations across the nation.
TSA officials like to point out that the acronym stands for Transportation Security Administration, not the Airport Security Administration. And that's where VIPR comes in.
Born after 2004's Madrid railway bombings, VIPR suffered some embarrassing coordination struggles, transit officials say.
The program has 15 teams and is expanding to get access to 12 new teams to spot-check thousands of transportation depots across the nation.
VIPR teams conducted 3,895 operations in "surface modes" nationwide in 2010, according to the Department of Homeland Security (PDF).
The expansion comes after intelligence from Osama bin Laden's Pakistan compound revealed al Qaeda plans to target U.S. rail systems on the tenth anniversary of 9/11.
At a time when TSA airport searches are unpopular among many air travelers, civil liberties groups say VIPR's joint participation with local police in "warrantless" searches have been "flying under the radar" in violation of constitutional protections.
Transit police say it helps them better guard against attacks like those that have hit Madrid, London and Moscow since 2004.
VIPR teams join local authorities for many of their operations aimed at searching passenger bags. Authorities say officers include plainclothes and uniformed team members -- some of them armed -- who arrive without telling passengers in advance.
Officers in the joint operations then randomly ask travelers for permission to search their bags for explosives. To prevent accusations of profiling, searchers choose a random number -- eight for example -- and then search the bags of every eighth passenger before they board.
Also, VIPR observers may be in the vicinity, keeping an eye out for suspicious behavior, police say.
Local and federal authorities insist the searches are not mandatory.
But passengers who refuse are not allowed on the train, forcing some travelers to make a tough decision.
"If you're going to make a choice between having somebody search you -- even though you question whether they have the right to do that -- or having to find another way home, I'd probably have let them search me," Vetter said. Luckily, he said, it didn't come to that. Officers did not ask to search his backpack.
As an attorney for the EPA, Vetter is pretty familiar with his Fourth Amendment constitutional right protecting him from "unreasonable searches."
"At the airport, everybody now understands it's part of the process," he said. "You can either choose to deal with it or not. But in a surprise situation like that, I would not have been pleased."
'Security theater'
New Jersey Transit Police Chief Christopher Trucillo, who works regularly with VIPR teams, acknowledged that the search system isn't perfect.
Potential attackers carrying explosives who refuse searches are free to simply drive to the next station on the line and board there.
"Because of the sheer number of passengers, there's nothing that would prevent you from doing that," Trucillo said. But there also are "things behind the scenes that are not visible to the traveling public that we employ to keep our system safe."
This isn't security, Christopher Calabrese of the American Civil Liberties Union says. It's "security theater."
Such searches offer no protection to society at the cost of passengers' civil liberties and convenience, he says. "We're very troubled by the VIPR program."
A high-profile example of VIPR's growing pains, transit officials say, is a VIPR-assisted passenger screening a year ago at Amtrak's station in Savannah, Georgia.
Instead of screening passengers as they boarded trains -- which is standard security procedure -- officers were screening passengers as they were getting off trains.
Security experts know that makes no sense, because potential terrorists probably would be interested in bringing explosives onto trains, not taking them off.
When Amtrak's police chief, John O'Connor, got wind of it, he "was very clearly angry," said Trains Magazine reporter Don Phillips, who spoke to O'Connor at the time.
O'Connor and TSA officials then hammered out an agreement on how future VIPR/Amtrak operations would be conducted.
The chief now says the Savannah operation simply "didn't make a whole lot of sense, and VIPR has since realized their misunderstanding and have corrected what they do."
"We were pleased with the way O'Connor responded," said Sean Jeans-Gail of the National Association of Railroad Passengers, who fears that the searches might affect a more than century-old tradition in America's train stations.
"The TSA needs to understand that train stations are not airports, they're publicly open hubs for community activity, which often include shopping facilities.
The TSA needs to be more mindful of that."
VIPR-assisted transit and rail searches haven't been challenged in court, but it's likely, civil liberties groups say. "I think expanding the program will be problematic politically and legally," said Ginger McCall of the Electronic Privacy Information Center.
Any courtroom battle over VIPR searches will pick apart the Fourth Amendment, which bars police searches unless there's "probable cause" to believe a crime has been committed.
But the TSA claims "administrative search authority" to conduct random checkpoint searches of passengers and baggage at "surface transportation venues" without probable cause, according to TSA spokeswoman Kimberley Thompson.
"... the administrative search does not require probable cause, but must further an important government need, such as preventing would-be terrorists from bringing an explosive device onto a crowded commuter train," Thompson said.
In certain very limited circumstances, especially after the 9/11 attacks, courts have ruled that Fourth Amendment rights don't apply because of the threat of terrorism.
In a 2006 case that didn't involve VIPR, subway rider Brendan MacWade and three others sued the City of New York and its police commissioner, challenging passenger bag searches at subway entrances where people were chosen at random.
MacWade lost on appeal because the court ruled the searches were legal under the Fourth Amendment's "special needs doctrine."
"The courts have said that -- because airplanes are so vulnerable to hijacking and bombs -- certain privacy interests have to be sacrificed," CNN Senior Legal Analyst Jeffrey Toobin said. "I think subways are a harder call because so many people ride them and they don't fly in the sky.
But because they're underground and vulnerable, the court said the searches were OK. Would it be the same at a bus station or a busy city street? The line starts to get very tough."
Few Amtrak passengers have ever refused to be searched, O'Connor said. "We've done thousands of them, and I would say less than a handful of people have chosen to seek other transportation."
The TSA says VIPR is performing the searches often at the invitation of local or state authorities. "TSA is not arbitrarily going out there now and searching passengers and trying to violate their rights," Thompson said. "We're conducting searches in conjunction with the stakeholders."
Is VIPR working? It's hard to know.
When asked if VIPR has ever directly resulted in discovered explosives or the arrest of suspected attackers, Thompson said, "Specific operational results are considered security sensitive information.
Although the value of deterrence is difficult to measure directly the presence of law enforcement transportation security personnel VIPR assets increases the difficulty with which potential terrorists plan and conduct terrorist activity."
VIPR's spot-checking role, rail security experts say, saves the high cost of deploying officers at every passenger transportation depot in the nation -- which they point out would be virtually impossible.
The surprise element of a VIPR team accompanying local police at a train station or truck weigh station on the day of a planned attack might force a terrorist to cancel the attack.
"This kind of unpredictability is another tool in the toolbox to manipulate and play with their minds and cause a level of tactical deterrence," Rand security analyst Brian A. Jackson said.
As Amtrak's O'Connor puts it: "You never know where those search scenes are going to show up."
Watching the truckers
Truckers driving their rigs through Tennessee last October were surprised to be caught up in a VIPR joint exercise with local law enforcement targeting five freight truck weigh stations and two bus stations, CNN affiliate WTVF reported.
"Transportation Security officers did not search the trucks," the TSA's Thompson told CNN. "Technically, if you think about a dog walking around a truck, sniffing for trace explosives, from my understanding is still technically a search.
That's the only search the VIPRs were actually involved in." TSA officers, she said, were mostly handing out fliers. "They weren't out there searching people, and they weren't out there searching trucks."
The action was described as a statewide VIPR operation, and officials told WTVF that it wasn't a response to any particular threat, which troubles the American Trucking Associations.
"Adding security personnel at weigh stations in unfamiliar federal uniforms is not likely to raise the comfort level of commercial drivers entering weigh stations, unless there is a threat to the highway sector," ATA spokesman Martin Rojas said.
It "doesn't seem like the best use of TSA resources unless there is information or intelligence that supports increased highway security."
What other countries are doing
Spain and Russia significantly beefed up their rail security in the years after deadly terrorist bomb attacks killed 191 in Madrid in 2004 and 40 in Moscow in 2010.
Although there are no regular baggage checks for passengers on Spanish trains, subways and buses, the nation's bullet trains do use electronic scanners.
Far more undercover plainclothes agents and uniformed officers are believed to be stationed in or near major transit hubs. Madrid's metro trains use a private security patrol force and closed-circuit video surveillance.
Moscow -- with the world's second-busiest subway system -- has spent $1.6 billion over three years to strengthen its transit security, said security analyst Rick Nelson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
U.S. transit officials look to VIPR to augment security during tough financial times for many communities.
"We'd prefer to see a greater investment directly with the transit agencies," said Greg Hull of the American Public Transportation Association.
"Failing that, having the ability to draw upon these resources that are under the control of the Department of Homeland Security certainly is a viable alternative."
For the Vetters, their father-and-son brush with train passenger searches offered a real-world life lesson.
Rick Vetter remembers that his wife recently gave him a refrigerator magnet featuring a quote from Ben Franklin: "They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."
"The VIPR operation certainly didn't amount to that," Vetter said. "They could have handled it better in the sense that they could have provided some advance warning that they're expanding this to train stations and bus stations."
The Ben Franklin magnet sprang from his son's government lessons in school, Vetter said, which led to a family discussion about tradeoffs in society.
"You've got to decide in society where you're going to draw some of those lines," Vetter said. "You, as an individual, may or may not agree where that line is drawn, but once it's drawn, you've got some choices to make."
When Iowa Republicans hold their presidential straw poll in Ames, Iowa, on Saturday, a couple of things will happen. One is that the state party will make a lot of money, including from corporate sources. The other is… well, not much. Yes, several thousand of Iowa’s most hardcore Republican Party activists will cast votes for a 2012 presidential candidate. But what will this tell us?
The Iowa straw poll only dates back to 1979, and in its five prior installments it hasn’t been very predictive of the ultimate GOP nominee. George H.W. Bush won it the first time, but Ronald Reagan went on to win the party’s nomination. Pat Robertson dazzled everyone with a straw poll victory in 1987, but Bush was the eventual nominee. Bob Dole in 1995 and George W. Bush in 2000 both finished first (Dole tied with Phil Gramm, to be exact) and went on to be nominees. But Mitt Romney’s 2007 straw poll did him little good; Romney didn’t even go on to win Iowa. And the man who did, Mike Huckabee, never became a very credible contender for the nomination.
So it’s not clear why the straw poll should be very interesting in the first place. Maybe it’s just fun to have some empirically-measured competition between the candidates. Except that two of the most important candidates aren’t even competing. The GOP’s consensus front-runner, Mitt Romney, has wisely reckoned that he has little to gain by participating (what good did it do him last time?) and won’t even be on the ballot. Neither will Texas Governor Rick Perry, who will announce his candidacy in another state on Saturday, mischievously siphoning away media attention from other candidates and reinforcing the idea that the straw poll is more sideshow than main event. Ditto Sarah Palin, who skillfully exploited the congregation of national political reporters at the Iowa state fair on Friday, but who left her intentions as unclear as ever.
So what does that leave us? Mostly a story about poor Tim Pawlenty. Within the closed system of political media, the main question that the straw poll will answer is whether Pawlenty is deserving of continued treatment as a credible candidate. Pawlenty himself has conceded that a poor showing will merit a reassessment of his campaign, though he stopped short of saying he’d quit the race as have other candidates, like Lamar Alexander and Dan Quayle, who fizzled in Ames. A corollary to this question is whether Michele Bachmann can demonstrate organizational power on the ground to match her star power. Should Bachmann win the straw poll resoundingly, that would indicate she’s more than a “bobblehead” media sensation, and can command the ground troops required to win the Iowa caucuses. And the harder it looks for Pawlenty to win the caucuses, the harder it is to see how he can be the GOP nominee.
It’s also entirely possible that Ron Paul, with his fanatical following, will embarrass the party by beating everyone and winning the straw poll. If that happens, you could see it as a sign that Paul is being wildly underestimated and is en route to becoming the next Republican nominee. Or you could see it as evidence that the Iowa straw poll is a silly exercise, not worth the attention it commands, and that candidates and reporters alike would be better off enjoying a summer Saturday before the campaign finally gets serious this fall.
On the day that Texas Gov. Rick Perry formally joined the Republican presidential race, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) narrowly won the Iowa straw poll in a contest that dealt a major setback to third-place finisher Tim Pawlenty.
The events of Saturday marked the opening of an accelerating chapter in a 2012 GOP campaign that has been slow to take shape. With Mitt Romney established as the frontrunner for the nomination, the entry of Perry and the victory here by Bachmann are likely to reorder the field and intensify the competition to emerge as the former Massachusetts governor’s principal challenger.
Romney has dictated the pace of his campaign almost without regard to other contenders, and he has managed to avoid direct confrontations with the other Republicans in the field, most recently in Thursday’s debate. But that could change quickly as the GOP candidates look toward a September calendar that includes three nationally televised debates.
Bachmann captured 29 percent of almost 17,000 votes in the Ames straw poll and was closely followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul, with 28 percent. Pawlenty received 14 percent. Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum was fourth with 10 percent, and businessman Herman Cain was fifth, with 9 percent.
“This is the very first step toward taking the White House in 2012, and you have just sent a message that Barack Obama will be a one-term president,” Bachmann told supporters shortly after the results were announced.
Pawlenty’s disappointing finish threatens to end a candidacy that once held great promise. Until only a few months ago, many Republicans saw Pawlenty as a potentially strong candidate for the nomination. He has spent more time and money in Iowa than any other candidate.
In the run-up to the straw poll, which is not a reliable predictor of who wins later in the Iowa caucuses or finally receives the nomination, the former two-term Minnesota governor vowed to keep going no matter what the results were on Saturday. But he will have to reevaluate in light the tallies. By the time they were announced, Pawlenty and his senior team had packed up and left.
Pawlenty issued a statement congratulating Bachmann while claiming he had moved into a “competitive position” for next year’s caucuses. But he added, “We have a lot more work to do.”
Paul, who often runs strongly in straw polls, might have provided the biggest surprise of the day. But he has yet to demonstrate the broad appeal needed to win primaries or caucuses. Still, his finish is recognition that the iconoclastic conservative with the small-government message has greater resonance today than four years ago.
Perry formally announced his candidacy with a speech in South Carolina in which he criticized the policies of President Obama. “I will not sit back and accept the path that America is on because a great country requires a better direction, because a renewed nation needs a new president,” he said.
Perry has served longer than any other governor in Texas history and brings to the race solid conservative credentials, an affinity with both tea party activists and social conservatives, and an unbeaten record as a candidate.
But he is untested on the national stage and will have little margin for error, because he joins a race in which other candidates have been testing their messages and building organizations for months or even years.
Bachmann, too, is a relatively new candidate, having announced her candidacy only two months ago. But in that short time she has established herself as a politician with a passionate following and a message built around her claim that she has fought harder than almost anyone in the party to oppose the president’s policies.
But Perry threatens to eclipse Bachmann. For the time being, he is likely to take attention away from her candidacy and could drain some of the support she has developed. The two, who will challenge Romney from the right, have overlapping constituencies, though GOP strategists see Perry as having potentially broader appeal and a longer, deeper record, given his 10 years as a chief executive.
Both will visit Waterloo on Sunday, which could offer early clues.
Romney is seen as a less-than-dominant frontrunner; although he is ahead in most of the national polls, his candidacy has not generated much passion among many of the party’s conservatives. But he has one significant advantage over his main rivals: He has run before and knows what to expect.
Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, was in Ames on Saturday and talked about what the race ahead might look like. On a day when many Republicans were asking what Perry would do to Romney, Huckabee said, “The question may be what Romney does to Perry. One thing Romney’s got going for him is that this is not his first rodeo. It’s a bruising experience.”
The straw poll turnout exceeded that of four years ago but was well below the 1999 record of more than 23,000. Perry was not on the ballot but, aided by an energetic write-in operation, finished sixth, just ahead of Romney, who was on the ballot. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich was eighth, followed by former Utah governor Jon Huntsman Jr. and Rep. Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan.
A victory by Paul would have been a blow to Bachmann, who brought considerable momentum to the vote and needed the victory to validate her standing as the frontrunner in the state. It also would have hurt the credibility and future of the straw poll, a number of Republicans here said.
Saturday’s straw poll drew a bigger-than-expected crowd, which reveled in the early fall weather, with blue skies, moderate temperatures and a slight breeze. By midday, traffic heading onto the Iowa State University campus was moving at a crawl.Once in the area, the candidates’ supporters faced long lines to vote.
As the voting took place, each of the candidates, flanked by their families and small armies of supporters, filed onto the floor in the Hilton Coliseum. Some of the campaigns played quick videos on the JumboTron above before their candidates took the microphone.
Few generated more enthusiasm than Bachmann, who confidently roamed the stage with a wireless microphone rather than standing still at the rostrum.
“We are going to do it. It’s going to happen — 2012 is ours,” Bachmann said as the nearly full coliseum erupted in cheers. “We’re going to take it back in 2012. All the energy we need to take the country back in 2012 — it’s right here in this room, in Ames, Iowa.”
Bachmann offered few details, delivering instead a sharp critique of Obama and an expression of her conservative principles, economic and social. She drew perhaps the loudest applause when she congratulated Iowans for voting out three state Supreme Court justices last year who had ruled against a law barring same-sex marriage.
Pawlenty, too, offered a withering critique of Obama’s Washington. He promised to reduce taxes, spending and regulation — and, as he has done everywhere on the trail over six weeks of intense campaigning across Iowa, he made the case that his record as governor distinguishes him from the similar promises of the rest of the field.
“Many of the Republican candidates for president are going to say many of the same things,” he said. “They’re going to say, ‘I’m the one who will reduce taxes. I’m the one who stands for the cause of life, I’m the one who stands for traditional marriage.’ But as you know, as we’ve seen with Barack Obama, just saying the words isn’t enough.”
As he has throughout his campaigns for president, Paul set himself apart from Republican orthodoxy. Like Bachmann, he drew a strong response. His ardent supporters, who filled much of the arena, cheered loudly as he made a passionate call for a return to the principles laid out in the Constitution, reforming monetary policy at the Federal Reserve and bringing U.S. forces home from throughout the world.
“We’re into wars that are costing us trillions of dollars,” Paul said. “Those wars are costing us jobs and prosperity.”
Santorum, who moved his family to the state last month and who visited 68 of the state’s 99 counties, called his campaign “the little engine that could,” saying, “This campaign is about scratching and clawing for every bit of recognition we can get.”He implored Iowa Republicans to recognize his conservative convictions as more deeply held than those of some of the others in the race.
Cain gave perhaps the most rousing speech of the afternoon, laying out his solutions for the country’s many “crises” and suggesting he is the product of a movement of citizens ready to take back their government. “This giant has awakened, and it’s not going back to sleep,” he said.
Displays of enthusiasm were even more pronounced on the lawns surrounding the Hilton Coliseum, where Bachmann supporters waited in a two-hour line to gain admission to her tent, eat a “beef sundae” and listen to country star Randy Travis perform.
In Pawlenty’s tent on the other side of the coliseum, organizers dished out 4,000 Dairy Queen Blizzards and 1,750 pounds of Famous Dave’s BBQ, but by midafternoon the crowds had dwindled and more tables sat empty than full inside a cavernous tent.
Ron Paul’s narrow-second place finish at the Ames straw poll was a demonstration of the Texas congressman’s intensified organization and a message retooled to appeal to Iowa conservatives — and a clear sign that he’s going to be a continued presence going into the 2012 election.
Paul got 4,671 votes, losing to Rep. Michele Bachmann by just 152 votes, and placing well ahead of former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, whose months of work and major investment delivered him just 2,293 votes.
Paul’s supporters were hoping a win here would prove their legitimacy, and Paul’s entourage came armed with statements from previous presidential candidates offering exhortations about just how important winning the straw poll is.
“Obviously,” senior Paul strategist Doug Wead told POLITICO Saturday when asked if an Ames victory would mean more than other straw poll wins. “We have the statements of all these other candidates, Romney on down about the importance of the Ames vote. Even those who are saying it’s not important now, they’re on the record saying it’s important.”
“Relatively speaking, yes that true,” Paul told POLITICO after his speech here when asked if winning at Ames was more important than previous polls he’s topped. “It can give you a boost in morale, and encouragement — for me, it’s always a vote for the endorsement of the views of the concerns of liberty.”
Paul’s tent, after all, was on the same grass where Mitt Romney’s was outside the Hilton Coliseum in 2007 when the former Massachusetts governor prioritized the straw poll and placed first.
This year, Romney chose not to compete, unlike Paul, who deepened his organization here. Led by senior staffers Jesse Benton and John Tate, the Paul campaign developed methodical plans to reach out to specific groups of straw poll goers. At restaurants, for example, Paul supporters were told to leave cards in with their checks: “As president, Ron Paul will fight to exempt hard-earned tips from any income or employment tax,” the cards read.
“It used to be, ‘this movement is like herding cats,’” Wead said. “But now it’s a finely tuned operation.”
Wead pointed to the signs posted inside the Coliseum: Paul signs were everywhere, far outnumbering all the other candidates. There were specific organization rules in place for putting them up — only 8 staffers were allowed, and campaigns had two hours to post them — and the Paul team was done in 30 minutes while others scrambled for space.
But the most important piece of Paul’s Iowa operation was outreach to the social conservatives who play such a critical role in the state’s Republican electorate.
“The missing link for us, the outreach to evangelicals, which is so key to South Carolina and the south — we’re filling it,” said Wead, speaking to POLITICO in between announcements on Paul’s stage.
Wead told POLITICO that the outreach included mailing 5,000 DVDs of Paul to pastors in Iowa before Saturday’s events. And it relied heavily on a new team of evangelicals who are backing Paul. They include Wead himself and also Brian Jacobs, who used to work with Rev. Billy Graham. Jacobs spent the days before the Straw Poll calling pastors throughout Iowa.
And when their candidate took the stage to speak to the reporters and the crowd assembled in the arena here, his opening remarks weren’t about the Fed or monetary policy or anything that referenced the “sliding dollar,” as the children’s play slide outside his tent was labeled.
Paul’s campaign, he said, is usually “identified with the cause of liberty…[but] there is something that precedes liberty and that is life,” he said, launching into a graphic story about watching an abortion while he was doing an OB/GYN rotation in medical school. “The prime reason that government exists in a free society is to protect liberty, but also to protect life. And I mean all life,” Paul said.
At the sprawling area where Paul was handing out hot dogs, offering children stickers and balloons, and handing out copies of the Constitution, the crowd skewed young: There were college students dressed in Ron Paul-logoed minidresses; there was a dunk tank; and the atmosphere inside the tent occasionally felt like a big college party. Parading across the stage were members of Ron Paul’s family — one discussed the Ron Paul cookbook — and Paul’s son, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, took the stage with his father after the speech here.
Paul supporters’ usual loud enthusiasm was on display as the results were announced, as red-shirted supporters filled the stands inside the arena. At first, there was silence — and then they started a loud chant of “Ron Paul! Ron Paul! Ron Paul”
Whether those supporters can drive Paul to a strong finish in the Iowa caucuses later this month is still an open question — but his staff has said all along that the caucus structure works to his advantage. And that, one longtime Iowa Republican operative said, is what Paul proved in Ames today.
“Paul actually did what Pawlenty was trying to do — and that shows he could make a serious play in the caucuses,” the Republican said.
Ever since Paul won just 1,305 votes in the 2007 contest in Ames, Paul’s ardent core of supporters have become obsessed with straw polls, going all out to win smaller contests at Republican conferences as a way to prove to the media that the libertarian Texas congressman is a legitimate presidential contender.
They have been successful — Paul won both the Republican Leadership Conference straw poll in New Orleans this year and the Conservative Political Action Committee poll in Washington in February — but they haven’t been able to sway the media narrative that paints Paul as a candidate with intense but limited support from Republicans whose views are outside the mainstream.
For Paul’s ardent supporters, that’s the rub: While the media have been covering Pawlenty as a legitimate contender with a plausible path to the White House, Paul’s presidential bid has been largely ignored press.
“The point is: Why are you here?” Wead asked, referring to the hundreds of national reporters who have descended on Ames this weekend. “You’re here because it’s important. If you quit coming, we’ll quit coming. Until then, this matters.”
1.) Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (4823, 28.55%)
2.) Congressman Ron Paul (4671, 27.65%)
3.) Governor Tim Pawlenty (2293, 13.57%)
4.) Senator Rick Santorum (1657, 9.81%)
5.) Herman Cain(1456, 8.62%)
6.) Governor Rick Perry (718, 3.62%) write-in
7.) Governor Mitt Romney (567, 3.36%)
8.) Speaker Newt Gingrich (385, 2.28%)
9.) Governor Jon Huntsman (69, 0.41%)
10.) Congressman Thad McCotter (35, 0.21%)
Scattering (162, 0.96 %) Includes all those receiving votes at less than one-percent that were not on the ballot.
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann on Saturday won the Ames Straw Poll, besting eight other Republican candidates in a nonbinding but politically significant vote in the first caucus state of Iowa.
The vote was billed as one that could make or break some campaigns. Six Republican presidential hopefuls on Saturday personally appealed for Iowans' vote, not including former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. She drew throngs at the Iowa State Fair on Friday but has yet to officially decide if she's running.
Bachmann secured 4,823 votes, narrowly besting Texas Rep. Ron Paul who had 4,671 votes. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty was chosen on 2,293 ballots, placing him third.
Pawlenty, who has trailed in recent polls despite heavy investment in Iowa, issued a statement saying, "We made progress in moving from the back of the pack into a competitive position. ... We are just beginning, and I'm looking forward to a great campaign."
The next closest contenders, in order, are: former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 1,657 votes, businessman Herman Cain with 1,456 votes, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 567 votes. That was slightly less than the 718 who wrote in the name of Texas Gov. Rick Perry -- who declared his candidacy Saturday and wasn't even on the ballot.
Part country fair and entirely political, the Ames Straw Poll has helped take the pulse of a campaign's strength since 1979. It's also the first opportunity for the tens of thousands of voters who weighed in Saturday on which GOP president candidate they support.
The results were announced around 5:30 p.m. CT, capping days of intense politicking and several hours of speeches from candidates and other prominent Republicans.
Bachmann had reason to celebrate, but had a little competition in the headlines department: Perry announced his presidential bid at a meeting of conservatives in South Carolina. The timing of his announcement prompted some grumbling among Iowa Republicans.
Nine announced candidates were on the Iowa ballot, although two of them -- Romney and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman -- skipped the contest. Huntsman is avoiding the Iowa caucuses completely, while Romney's advisers are carefully watching the state and could pounce in the coming months if they see an opening.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was on the ballot, too, but his cash-strapped campaign did not have a formal presence at the straw poll and he only got 385 votes. Michigan Rep. Thaddeus McCotter shelled out thousands of dollars to reserve campaign space outside the straw poll venue, but -- while he played up the perils of "big government" and of ceding "the 21st century (to) Communist China" -- he was not, as expected, a major factor, securing a mere 35 votes.
Bachmann had been positioned at or near the top of most Hawkeye State polls thanks to the passions she has stirred among tea party activists and social conservatives who make up a large part of the caucus electorate. But there are questions about how strong her organization in the state is and whether she can compete with Pawlenty's respectable ground game.
Like Huckabee in 2007, though, Bachmann has a natural appeal to evangelicals and home-school activists who tend to show up at political events like straw polls.
In her speech in Ames on Saturday, Bachmann exuded optimism -- proudly and loudly insisting, "We are the team that can't be beat."
Besides playing up her roots in Iowa, where she was raised, the three-term U.S. representative cast herself as a fiscal conservative and "national security conservative." Still, some of the most impassioned parts of her speech dealt with her stances on social issues.
"We are social conservatives, and we will never be ashamed of being social conservatives," Bachmann said. "We understand that religious liberty is the essence of the foothold of this nation."
Another candidate who came in with high expectations was Paul, given his strong performances in straw polls at various conservative gatherings over the years. Such successes are a testament to the devotion of his libertarian-leaning followers and their ability to outorganize and outhustle the competition.
But these days, political observers and members of the media take his straw poll wins for granted. And these victories have yet to translate to larger ones for the now three-time presidential candidate -- who hasn't broken through yet in Republican elections nationally.
Speaking Saturday, Paul called for fewer government regulations and more "freedom for America."
"Liberty and life does not come from the government," he said. "It comes from our creator."
As much as the vote -- a fund-raiser for the Iowa Republican Party -- could catapault some candidates, it may also eliminate those who have staked their candidacies on Iowa but struggled to generate grassroots enthusiasm.
They included Santorum, who acknowledged his underdog status but promised a comeback.
"This is the little-engine-that-could campaign," the staunch social conservative said. "They told us we had no chance."
Cain, a businessman and former radio host running on his outsider image, is fading after a strong early start to the campaign. He had tried to manage expectations for the straw poll, but recently told a Des Moines audience that he needs to finish in the top three. Anything less, he said, would compel him to "evaluate" his campaign.
In a raucous address Saturday, Cain ran through his positions on a host of economic, foreign policy and other matters while saying Americans "are ready to embrace a problem-solver and not another politician."
Referring to an epiphany he had 12 years ago after his first grandchild was born, "I had to use my talents, skills and abilities to do something about this nation and get it off the wrong track," Cain said. "This giant has awakened and is not going back to sleep."
Pawlenty's performance in the poll was seen as especially critical. Observers had said he must finish in first or second place and send a message to his supporters (and the media) that his campaign can soldier on through the fall and winter.
The former Minnesota governor has a platoon of smart political operatives in his corner and is thought to have the best ground game in the state. But despite planting an early flag in Iowa and improving his performance on the stump in recent weeks, the Midwesterner remains stuck in single-digits in state polls.
On Saturday, he echoed many others in blasting President Barack Obama, claiming he "has no clue" and saying "he is like a manure spreader in a wind storm."
Pawlenty also vowed that his ability to get re-elected in Minnesota shows he has the track record to succeed in governing and also win over swing voters.
"I don't just talk about it. We got the job done, for Minnesota and America," he said.
The results of the Iowa straw poll will be carefully scrutinized by political analysts, helping propel some candidates in their fundraising and campaign efforts elsewhere even as it deflates others.
Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, a veteran observer of Republican politics in the state, said it is critical that a candidate do well if they are to have any chance, down the line.
"If you're not in the top three here, your chances of getting elected are not very good," he said.
But history shows a straw poll win hardly guarantees future success in the state or nationwide. In 2007, ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won the vote, but his closest rival in the state, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, ultimately won the Iowa caucuses and dealt a fatal blow to Romney's candidacy. The Republican nominee that year, meanwhile, was Arizona Sen. John McCain.
Only one Republican has won the straw poll and gone on to occupy the Oval Office: George W. Bush.
Texas Rep. Ron Paul proved that he is a leading contender to win Ames straw poll on Saturday by packing the venue with his rowdy sign-waving supporters.
“We have lost our enthusiasm for freedom!” said Paul, who donned a short-sleeved plaid shirt for the occasion.
The audience boomed with applause when the libertarian-leaning candidate blasted the size of the federal government, touted his opposition to abortion and called on government to withdraw American forces from Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Paul said the country functions better "without the federal government down our backs and in our wallets."
The straw poll outcome hinges on how well each campaign can turn out their supporters to the ballot box.
Judging by the size of Paul’s crowd inside the Hilton Coliseum in Ames, which was nearly twice as big as the one that turned out to watch former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, he appears to be on track for a top finish.
Most observers believe Paul will finish in the top three, and could pull off an upset by winning the whole thing.
Texas Rep. Ron Paul has long been regarded as a somewhat entertaining distraction in his two presidential races over the past four years.
But, on the eve of the Ames Straw Poll, the first major organizing test of the 2012 Republican presidential race, there is a strain of thinking that Paul could seriously challenge the likes of Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty for supremacy on Saturday.
“He’s got the supporter passion of a Bachmann with the organization of a Pawlenty,” said one senior Iowa Republican strategist unaffiliated with any of the campaigns. “He builds on 2007 and the caucus last time, and I think he can turn out the 3,000 votes he needs to win.”
The idea of a Paul straw poll victory — while beginning to be discussed more openly — is still far from expected.
Pawlenty has gone all out — organizationally and financially — to make his mark at Ames, recognizing that if he can’t win or come in a very close second it could very well spell the end of his campaign.
Bachmann, too, is making a major play at Ames — her Friday schedule is packed with five events designed to rally supporters in advance of the straw poll — and, if polling is to be believed, she looks something close to a frontrunner in the Iowa caucuses next year.
The conventional wisdom on the ground in Iowa is that Paul, Bachmann and Pawlenty will finish in the win, place and show slots — with Bachmann still regarded as the most likely first place finisher.
But, Paul is clearly hoping to make his mark; his campaign paid $31,000 for the prime spot at tomorrow’s straw poll (right outside the Hilton Coliseum where the voting takes place) — the same plot of land that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney staked out in 2007 when he won the straw poll.
Despite that spending, Paul’s campaign team is doing everything they can to lower expectations.
“Michele is pushing full force, Tim Pawlenty has an expensive team of top-drawer consultants and Mitt Romney, the national front runner, is working hard behind the scenes,” said Paul campaign manager Jesse Benton. “We hope to do well, compete with these big names and finish right there with them in the top four.”
Paul’s chances of pulling off an upset are entirely contingent on the number of people of voting. As he has demonstrated by winning a series of straw votes over the past few years, he has a very dedicated group of supporters who would walk over hot coals — maybe literally — for him.
But Paul has also shown — and he did it again in the debate last night — that he has little interest in expanding beyond that base of people. As the electorate gets larger the ability of Paul’s supporters to dominate it recedes. It’s why he didn’t win a single primary or caucus in the 2008 race.
The operative question in assessing Paul’s chances at winning at Ames tomorrow is just how many people will show up.
Virtually no one expects turnout to come near the 1999 Straw Poll when nearly 24,000 people voted thanks to heavy spending by both then Texas Gov. George W. Bush and wealthy businessman Steve Forbes. Bush won the vote that year with 7,418 votes — a massive total that may not be eclipsed for some time to come.
The two more likely voter universe estimates are 2007 and 1995.
In 2007, 14,000 people voted with Romney emerging victorious with 4,516 votes. (Paul finished fifth in that straw ballot with 1,305 votes.)
In 1995, just 10,500 voted as then Sens. Bob Dole (Kans.) and Phil Gramm (Texas) tied for first place by each winning 2,582 votes.
The 3,500 vote difference between overall turnout in 1995 and 2007 may make all the difference in assessing Paul’s chances of winning.
In a 1995 turnout model, 3,000 votes for any one candidate is likely to win it and several smart strategists in the state believe Paul could get to that number. In the 2007 turnout model, though, 3,000 isn’t enough votes to win — although it would likely guarantee Paul a top three finish.
“Turnout under 12,000 favors Ron Paul,” said one veteran GOP straw poll watcher. “Turnout over 14,000 favors Bachmann.”
There is little expectation that a Paul victory at Ames — even if did come to pass — would mean much of anything in the race to come.
Turnout for next year’s caucuses in Iowa could be as much as ten times that of Ames and, as we noted above, Paul struggles in larger electorates. “He won’t win the caucuses or be the nominee, but it will be a recognition that Iowans are looking for someone who will offer bold answers on our fiscal crisis,” said one Iowa Republican strategist.
For the first time since Congressman Ron Paul announced in May that he will be running for president, he was joined on the campaign trail by his son, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul.
The two made four stops across Iowa on Wednesday -- speaking on how a Ron Paul presidency would be beneficial to America.
They started their day in Mason City, Iowa – but ABC News caught up with the father-son duo in Waterloo, Iowa. Ron and Rand Paul spoke to a crowd of about 50 people during a lunchtime meet and greet.
Ron Paul had an optimistic assessment of the current economic condition in America, saying that the financial turmoil is temporary. He then presented proposals for what he would do as president to correct the ship, one of which includes eliminating the capital gains tax.
ABC News asked Congressman Paul about President Obama's view that spending cuts alone can't fix American's long-term deficit situation, and that we need to also look at increasing revenue.
"We need to know what the role of government ought to be -- Obama probably endorses entitlements as rights," said Ron Paul. "We can get there -- we can cut entitlements."
Sen. Rand Paul took the microphone and said: "Democrats have to admit that entitlements and welfare need to be reformed. Social spending needs to go down and Republicans need to admit that military spending needs to go down. They say the Tea Party won't compromise -- we will compromise."
When pressed by ABC News about a long-term deficit deal by this Congress -- Ron Paul says there will be something -- but it will have no meaning.
"It will not reassure the markets -- it will not cause us to have a strong dollar and it will not revive the economy," he said.
At the day's third campaign stop in Cedar Rapids, ABC News asked what he would specifically do on day one of his presidency to create jobs. He pointed out the need to control the regulatory system and the tax code -- but offered no specifics. Rand Paul then took the microphone and offered a clearer articulation of his father's vision, specifically pointing out the need to lower corporate tax rates in America.
At the final campaign stop in Des Moines, ABC News caught up with Rep. Paul and asked him about the one clear difference between him and Rep. Michele Bachmann, who has been getting a lot of media attention and, in some polls, is leading Paul.
"I approach this differently than all the other candidates -- Republicans or Democrats," said Paul. "I defend individual liberty in a different way. I am the one that says, 'War -- there is too much of it.' They are undeclared. It's time to end war."
"I am the one that says, 'I'm sick and tired of this Patriot Act -- this pretence to destroy our individual liberties and molest us at the airport.' None of the other candidates are saying that. How many of the other candidates are going to talk about the financial situation and tie it into the reality of the Federal Reserve? Those views are different from other views, and it's my strong defense of liberty that separates me from other candidates."
Welcome to the BLACK POLITICAL BUZZ Blog. (Established 2008)
My name is Laurel. (Author & Publisher)
I Blog with a focus on POLITICS, Business, and occasionally Entertainment.
FACTS ABOUT LAUREL:
Wife,
Mother of a U.S. Soldier,
Sister,
Woman of GOD,
Loyal Friend,
Creative,
Blood-related to a nationally known Charlotte Politician.
Black Female, Intelligent,
Married,
Love to Travel,
Credentialed by the RNC and DNC.
Political Blogger/ Commentator
Grassroots Activist,
PROFESSIONAL STATUS:
Credential Political Blogger/ Commentator,
Registered Independent Voter
Original Native of BROOKLYN, NY
Currently reside in CHARLOTTE, NC
I’m Nice but don’t get it twisted because my Mind is Sharp!
Since You’ve Chosen to Visit and Read the Contents of this Blog by Personal Choice, and of Your Own Free Will,
Please don’t ask me to Compensate you for Expressing individual commentary/ Posted Articles, which are protected by the First Amendment, citing Freedom of Speech & Freedom of Expression.
No Intentionally Malicious Slander, Libel or Defamation of Character content will be published and I will always Credit all Sources.
NOTE TO ALL ELECTED OFFICIALS, APPOINTED OFFICIALS & PUBLIC FIGURES:
Per the Landmark U.S. Supreme Court Case: 1964 case of New York Times v. Sullivan………
The Public has a Right to Criticize the People who Govern them, so the least Protection from Defamation is given to Public Officials. When officials are accused of something that involves their behavior in office, they have to prove all of the above elements of defamation and they must also prove that the defendant acted with “actual malice.” (For a definition of actual malice, see the “History of Defamation and the First Amendment, below.”)
People who aren’t Elected but who are Still Public Figures because they are influential or famous — like Actors, Actresses, Movie Stars, Singers & Entertainers, Journalists, TV Hosts, Bloggers, etc., — also have to Prove that Defamatory statements were made with Actual Malice, in most cases.
To the Associated Press and other Media Organizations:
When I use your Content Links., I’m also citing the Fair Use Doctrine (Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107) for further Copyright permission.
Posts and Links published on Black Political Buzz are not endorsed by Black Political Buzz Blog Author Laurel’s Employer, nor the Employers of other Black Political Buzz employees.
This includes Links, Posts and Comments posted on Black Political Buzz’s Facebook and Twitter account pages.
Comments, Links and Opinions of site visitors are Independently-Owned and not endorsed by Black Political Buzz employees, Blog Author Laurel or Laurel’s Employer.)
(No Personal Offense intended) Please know that Black Political Buzz is not responsible for nor do I endorse Requests for Donations from Third Parties on this Blog.
I will Only Endorse Requests for Donations made on behalf of BLACK POLITICAL BUZZ Blog for Business Purposes & Operating Expenses.
I will also Only Endorse Requests for Donations on behalf of Legitimate Politicians and Legitimate Political Candidates. PERIOD!!
If anyone else or another Organization wishes to post a link to Request Donations, I am NOT endorsing ANY of those Requests!
Unless I receive a personal Request to do so and I have Professionally Confirmed that the Third Party Organization or Charity is indeed a Legitimate Entity.
NOTE: Anyone who chooses to give to any Third Party Organization NOT Endorsed by BLACK POLITICAL BUZZ is doing so at his or her own risk.
BLACK POLITICAL BUZZ does NOT Discriminate against Politicians, Political Candidates, Organizations or Charities based on Race, Color, Nationality, Ethnicity, Gender, Sexual Orientation, Religion, Faith, Disability, Political Affiliation, Creed, Education, Social Status, Age.
This disclaimer applies to ANY and All requests for Donations on this Blog. Thanks for understanding. Again No Personal Offense intended.
For Story Tips….Corrections…….. or Requests for Endorsements:
Please contact me via e-mail: blackpoliticalbuzz@gmail.com
or via my Facebook page: facebook.com/blackpoliticalbuzz
Thanks for stopping by
God Bless
Laurel @BLACK POLITICAL BUZZ
LINKS: POLITICAL PERSPECTIVE & INFORMATIONAL SITES
.jpg)
