Mitt Romney Fights To Remain GOP Frontrunner: Juggles Bachmann, Perry & Paul

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Bachmann wins Iowa straw poll as Perry jumps in

On the day that Texas Gov. Rick Perry formally joined the Republican presidential race, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) narrowly won the Iowa straw poll in a contest that dealt a major setback to third-place finisher Tim Pawlenty.

The events of Saturday marked the opening of an accelerating chapter in a 2012 GOP campaign that has been slow to take shape. With Mitt Romney established as the frontrunner for the nomination, the entry of Perry and the victory here by Bachmann are likely to reorder the field and intensify the competition to emerge as the former Massachusetts governor’s principal challenger.

Romney has dictated the pace of his campaign almost without regard to other contenders, and he has managed to avoid direct confrontations with the other Republicans in the field, most recently in Thursday’s debate. But that could change quickly as the GOP candidates look toward a September calendar that includes three nationally televised debates.

Bachmann captured 29 percent of almost 17,000 votes in the Ames straw poll and was closely followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul, with 28 percent. Pawlenty received 14 percent. Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum was fourth with 10 percent, and businessman Herman Cain was fifth, with 9 percent.

“This is the very first step toward taking the White House in 2012, and you have just sent a message that Barack Obama will be a one-term president,” Bachmann told supporters shortly after the results were announced.

Pawlenty’s disappointing finish threatens to end a candidacy that once held great promise. Until only a few months ago, many Republicans saw Pawlenty as a potentially strong candidate for the nomination. He has spent more time and money in Iowa than any other candidate.

In the run-up to the straw poll, which is not a reliable predictor of who wins later in the Iowa caucuses or finally receives the nomination, the former two-term Minnesota governor vowed to keep going no matter what the results were on Saturday. But he will have to reevaluate in light the tallies. By the time they were announced, Pawlenty and his senior team had packed up and left.

Pawlenty issued a statement congratulating Bachmann while claiming he had moved into a “competitive position” for next year’s caucuses. But he added, “We have a lot more work to do.”

Paul, who often runs strongly in straw polls, might have provided the biggest surprise of the day. But he has yet to demonstrate the broad appeal needed to win primaries or caucuses. Still, his finish is recognition that the iconoclastic conservative with the small-government message has greater resonance today than four years ago.

Perry formally announced his candidacy with a speech in South Carolina in which he criticized the policies of President Obama. “I will not sit back and accept the path that America is on because a great country requires a better direction, because a renewed nation needs a new president,” he said.

Perry has served longer than any other governor in Texas history and brings to the race solid conservative credentials, an affinity with both tea party activists and social conservatives, and an unbeaten record as a candidate.

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But he is untested on the national stage and will have little margin for error, because he joins a race in which other candidates have been testing their messages and building organizations for months or even years.

Bachmann, too, is a relatively new candidate, having announced her candidacy only two months ago. But in that short time she has established herself as a politician with a passionate following and a message built around her claim that she has fought harder than almost anyone in the party to oppose the president’s policies.

But Perry threatens to eclipse Bachmann. For the time being, he is likely to take attention away from her candidacy and could drain some of the support she has developed. The two, who will challenge Romney from the right, have overlapping constituencies, though GOP strategists see Perry as having potentially broader appeal and a longer, deeper record, given his 10 years as a chief executive.

Both will visit Waterloo on Sunday, which could offer early clues.

Romney is seen as a less-than-dominant frontrunner; although he is ahead in most of the national polls, his candidacy has not generated much passion among many of the party’s conservatives. But he has one significant advantage over his main rivals: He has run before and knows what to expect.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, was in Ames on Saturday and talked about what the race ahead might look like. On a day when many Republicans were asking what Perry would do to Romney, Huckabee said, “The question may be what Romney does to Perry. One thing Romney’s got going for him is that this is not his first rodeo. It’s a bruising experience.”

The straw poll turnout exceeded that of four years ago but was well below the 1999 record of more than 23,000. Perry was not on the ballot but, aided by an energetic write-in operation, finished sixth, just ahead of Romney, who was on the ballot. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich was eighth, followed by former Utah governor Jon Huntsman Jr. and Rep. Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan.

A victory by Paul would have been a blow to Bachmann, who brought considerable momentum to the vote and needed the victory to validate her standing as the frontrunner in the state. It also would have hurt the credibility and future of the straw poll, a number of Republicans here said.

Saturday’s straw poll drew a bigger-than-expected crowd, which reveled in the early fall weather, with blue skies, moderate temperatures and a slight breeze. By midday, traffic heading onto the Iowa State University campus was moving at a crawl.Once in the area, the candidates’ supporters faced long lines to vote.

As the voting took place, each of the candidates, flanked by their families and small armies of supporters, filed onto the floor in the Hilton Coliseum. Some of the campaigns played quick videos on the JumboTron above before their candidates took the microphone.

Few generated more enthusiasm than Bachmann, who confidently roamed the stage with a wireless microphone rather than standing still at the rostrum.

“We are going to do it. It’s going to happen — 2012 is ours,” Bachmann said as the nearly full coliseum erupted in cheers. “We’re going to take it back in 2012. All the energy we need to take the country back in 2012 — it’s right here in this room, in Ames, Iowa.”

Bachmann offered few details, delivering instead a sharp critique of Obama and an expression of her conservative principles, economic and social. She drew perhaps the loudest applause when she congratulated Iowans for voting out three state Supreme Court justices last year who had ruled against a law barring same-sex marriage.

Pawlenty, too, offered a withering critique of Obama’s Washington. He promised to reduce taxes, spending and regulation — and, as he has done everywhere on the trail over six weeks of intense campaigning across Iowa, he made the case that his record as governor distinguishes him from the similar promises of the rest of the field.

“Many of the Republican candidates for president are going to say many of the same things,” he said. “They’re going to say, ‘I’m the one who will reduce taxes. I’m the one who stands for the cause of life, I’m the one who stands for traditional marriage.’ But as you know, as we’ve seen with Barack Obama, just saying the words isn’t enough.”

As he has throughout his campaigns for president, Paul set himself apart from Republican orthodoxy. Like Bachmann, he drew a strong response. His ardent supporters, who filled much of the arena, cheered loudly as he made a passionate call for a return to the principles laid out in the Constitution, reforming monetary policy at the Federal Reserve and bringing U.S. forces home from throughout the world.

“We’re into wars that are costing us trillions of dollars,” Paul said. “Those wars are costing us jobs and prosperity.”

Santorum, who moved his family to the state last month and who visited 68 of the state’s 99 counties, called his campaign “the little engine that could,” saying, “This campaign is about scratching and clawing for every bit of recognition we can get.”He implored Iowa Republicans to recognize his conservative convictions as more deeply held than those of some of the others in the race.

Cain gave perhaps the most rousing speech of the afternoon, laying out his solutions for the country’s many “crises” and suggesting he is the product of a movement of citizens ready to take back their government. “This giant has awakened, and it’s not going back to sleep,” he said.

Displays of enthusiasm were even more pronounced on the lawns surrounding the Hilton Coliseum, where Bachmann supporters waited in a two-hour line to gain admission to her tent, eat a “beef sundae” and listen to country star Randy Travis perform.

In Pawlenty’s tent on the other side of the coliseum, organizers dished out 4,000 Dairy Queen Blizzards and 1,750 pounds of Famous Dave’s BBQ, but by midafternoon the crowds had dwindled and more tables sat empty than full inside a cavernous tent.


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Sources: CNN, MSNBC, Washington Post, Google Maps

Chris Christie: No 2012 GOP Endorsement Yet! (Video)

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Sources: Meet The Press, MSNBC, Google Maps

Iowa 2011 GOP Poll Results: Romney & Bachmann Leading

Romney and Bachmann Lead Iowa Poll on GOP Presidential Field


A new Iowa Poll shows national Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney and tea party favorite Michele Bachmann leading among the state's likely GOP caucus-goers.

The poll conducted for The Des Moines Register shows Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, with support from 23 percent in Iowa.

Bachmann is right on his heels. The Minnesota representative who plans to launch her campaign in Iowa on Monday has support from 22 percent.

Romney was the No. 2 finisher in the caucuses in his bid for the 2008 GOP nomination. Bachmann is a three-term congresswoman and newer face in the 2012 White House mix.

The results are based on telephone interviews with 400 likely Republican Iowa caucus-goers from June 19 to 22. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Romney has said he plans to run a scaled-down Iowa campaign, compared to the all-out, $10-million effort he waged for the 2008 caucuses.

Tim Pawlenty has been the most aggressive about campaigning in Iowa, having lined up top Iowa and national consultants, been a frequent visitor to the state and ran the 2012 campaign's first Republican candidate television advertisements last week.

However, only 6 percent of Iowa Republicans expected to attend the 2012 caucuses prefer the former Minnesota governor as their choice, according to the poll.

Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, whose campaign has struggled since widespread staff departures this month, has support from 7 percent, the same as Texas Representative Ron Paul.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has 4 percent, followed by former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who has said he will not campaign in Iowa, with 2 percent.



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Sources: Des Moines Registry, Fox News, MSNBC, Youtube, Google Maps

Herman Cain Implies Endorsing Anti-Muslim Discrimination

Its Official Folks!

And Its Obvious Herman Cain (Black 2012 GOP Presidential Candidate) Is A Paid Sell-Out, Probably Despises His Black Ancestry, Probably Hates Muslims & Is Desperately Attempting To Divide The American Black Community!

Cain Recently Stated To The National Media: "I Never Said I Would Discriminate Against Muslims Or Any Other Religion For That Matter, But I Am Going To Take Extra Precautions If A Muslim Person Who Is Competent Wants To Work In My Administration."

Wait A Minute!

Doesn't Cain's Anti-Muslim Comments Sound Like Some Of Sarah "Barracuda" Palin's Ignorant REHEARSED Tea Party Political Talking Points?

Excuse Me!

But Isn't Cain's Ideology On NOT Refusing To Hire Muslims Solely Based Upon Their Religious Beliefs, A Clear Form Of Title VII Discrimination?

FYI: From The EEOC:

Private Employment, State and Local Governments, Educational Institutions
Applicants to and employees of most private employers, state and local governments, educational institutions, employment agencies and labor organizations are protected under the following Federal laws:

RACE, COLOR, RELIGION, SEX, NATIONAL ORIGIN
Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, as amended, prohibits discrimination in hiring, promotion, discharge, pay, fringe benefits, job training, classification, referral, and other aspects of employment, on the basis of race, color, religion, sex or national origin.


Excuse Me!

But Doesn't It Appear Stupid That A BLACK Man Living In A STILL Very Racist Country Would Make Such Comments?

Listen Just Because We Now Have A BLACK Man Leading Our Nation In The Oval Office Or Just Because Another BLACK Man (Herman Cain) Is Running For U.S. President On The Republican/ Tea Party Ticket, Doesn't Mean ALL Of The Color & Racial Barriers In This Country Have Been Completely Eliminated.

Its Also Obvious Cain Needs Much Prayer & NO Political Support.

Herman Cain Sir, Please Sit Down & STOP Making A Fool Of Yourself!

Your 15-Minutes Of Fame Are Over! Like Yesterday!

VOTE OBAMA IN 2012!!!!!!







Herman Cain: Muslims have no place in US government


So we’ve got two probable candidates for the GOP presidential nominees who claim Georgia as their base. One is Newt Gingrich.

This is the other one.

For those who can’t view the video, Herman Cain is asked whether he would be willing to appoint a Muslim as a Cabinet officer or judge.

“No. I will not,” he said. “And here’s why: There’s this creeping attempt — there’s this attempt to gradually ease Sharia law and the Muslim faith into our government.” According to Cain, many American Muslims “are trying to force their Sharia law onto the rest of us.”

That’s just stupid. As in not very bright. By comparison, the Sharia conspiracy crowd makes the birthers look downright sane and reasonable. It will be interesting to see who, if anyone, among the GOP mainstream steps up to repudiate such nonsense. After all, the Constitution explicitly rules out such nonsense, stating point blank that “no religious test shall ever be required as a qualification to any office or public trust under the United States.”

I guess Herman Cain doesn’t believe in the Constitution.

Oh, and by the way?

In a speech to Texas evangelicals, Gingrich also took up the theme over the weekend, warning that unless America is saved, his grandchildren “will live in a secular atheist country, potentially one dominated by radical Islamists and with no understanding of what it once meant to be an American.”

“a secular atheist country … dominated by radical Islamists?” Wow. That would be some trick.

It’s the kind of rhetorical collision that happens when you’re merely listing scare words needed to scare your audience and not even attempting to communicate cogent thought.


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Sources: AJC, AOL, AP, Fox News, Huffington Post, MSNBC, Think Progress, Wikipedia, Youtube, Google Maps

Donald "Mr. New York" Trump Runs For President! You Gotta Love Him!

Is Donald "Daddy Warbucks/ Mr. New York" Trump REALLY Serious About Throwing His Hat In The Ring To Run For President Of The United States In 2012 Against Barack Obama Or Is This All Just A Huge Publicity Stunt?

Only Time Will Tell.

I Think A Lot Of People Were Considering Him As Their Choice Until He Ventured Over Into "Birther" Land.

Perhaps Someone Needs To Advise Mr. Trump That "Obama Wasn't Born In America" Platform Agenda Is NOT Going To Fly!

He's Alienating Potential Voters.

Its Been Settled By The U.S. Supreme Court So Just Leave It Alone!

Oh Well Whatever The Case Of Whether He's Really Serious Or Not, Hey He's "The Donald" & You Gotta Love Him!

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Trump for President in 2012? Maybe. Trump for Trump? Without Question


Something predictable happens to the ratings of Donald J. Trump’s “Celebrity Apprentice” on NBC when he hints at running for president: They rise.

And when he talks about President Obama’s birth certificate, they really rise.

Proving cause and effect is impossible, of course. But the coincidence is not lost on Mr. Trump, a man who has erected a real estate and media empire on immodesty and indiscretion.

“Did you get the info I sent you?” Mr. Trump asked in a phone interview with The New York Times late last week. “I told the girls to send you the ratings.” He was referring to a 10-page packet of press releases with headlines like “Donald Trump Is Ratings Gold” and news articles from Politico and CNN that described his strength in recent polls. A day later, he re-sent the clips.

Depending on your perspective, Mr. Trump’s growing visibility on television and in political news stories over the last few weeks represents the opening phase of a political campaign or the metastasis of a media spectacle. Mr. Trump, who says he is absolutely serious about a run for president, has appeared regularly on Fox News, MSNBC, CNN, ABC and in a wide variety of political blogs. Media outlets that had expected the Republican presidential ticket to take on a fuller shape by now have found themselves with a news void, and in the absence of other news-making characters, many of them are filling it with Mr. Trump.

“Trump and the press have a symbiotic relationship, not unlike bees and flowers,” said William Grueskin, dean of academic affairs for the Columbia Journalism School. “At least in the natural world, you get honey out of it. Out of this campaign coverage, all you get are a lot of empty media moments about someone who is unlikely to run, more unlikely to be nominated, and utterly unlikely to win.”

Mr. Trump insists that he is not disingenuous about his presidential ambitions, even if others accuse him of pulling a publicity stunt. “I’m very serious,” he said. “I’m thinking very, very long and hard about it. I love what I’m doing. And I’m getting a tremendous amount of enjoyment out of running a really great company. My company is extraordinary. But the country is not extraordinary; it’s doing very poorly.”

Mr. Trump has said his announcement will come by June, which — coincidentally or not — is around the time “Celebrity Apprentice” wraps up its current season. A hint of his plans could come during the May 22 finale, he said in the interview last week. “I wouldn’t announce a decision,” he said, noting that NBC likely would not approve of politicking on its airwaves. “I may announce where the press conference will be,” he added.

Mr. Trump is walking a fine line with NBC. If he were to run, he would have to give up his “Apprentice” franchise, he said. There are no federal prohibitions on candidates being on a network payroll, although the Federal Election Commission does have rules cautioning against the use of air time to further a political campaign in some cases. Fox News, which had five potential Republican candidates on its payroll, recently suspended Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum as they signaled they were planning to run.

NBC officials declined to comment on Mr. Trump’s political aspirations.

Mr. Trump acknowledged that if he were to run, he would be walking away from a lucrative and successful business. “It’s a great franchise, and I’ve done a great job,” he said.

Ratings for the show are up this season over the same winter season last year, despite the fact that the “Apprentice” franchise is seven years old. On March 20, a few days after Mr. Trump appeared on “Good Morning America” and questioned whether Mr. Obama was born in the United States — an issue among some conservatives who harbor suspicions about the president’s heritage and religion — the show had an average of 8.2 million viewers, up from 8.1 million for the same episode last year.

But Mr. Trump received significantly more media attention after he knocked heads with the hosts of “The View” on March 23. The March 27 episode of “Celebrity Apprentice” had an average of 8.6 million viewers, up from 8.0 million for the same episode last year.

“I want him to show his birth certificate!” Mr. Trump said on “The View,” despite the fact that the president has indeed produced a certification of live birth showing he was born in Honolulu. “There’s something on that birth certificate that he doesn’t like,” Mr. Trump added, to sneers from the hosts. “Oh, that’s a terrible thing to say,” Barbara Walters chided him.

Mr. Trump has a history of simultaneously talking up his presidential ambitions while promoting various Trump-branded goods. The first time was in September 1987 when he announced plans for a trip to New Hampshire ahead of the 1988 presidential primaries. A local activist who said he had never met Mr. Trump started a “Draft Donald Trump” movement and invited him to speak to a Rotary Club luncheon.

Mr. Trump also bought full-page advertisements in major newspapers around the country that said “There’s nothing wrong with America’s Foreign Defense Policy that a little backbone can’t cure.”

His book “Trump: The Art of the Deal” was published in November 1987 and reached The New York Times best-seller list by December. Synchronicity?

In any case, by the time he appeared at the Republican convention in New Orleans in August 1988, his ambitions had cooled. “Everybody wants me to do it,” he declared then. “But I have no interest in doing it.”

In late 1999, just before his book “The America We Deserve” went on sale, he began flirting anew with the idea of running for president, this time as a Reform Party candidate. He went on the road with his girlfriend, Melania Knauss, now his wife, to meet with constituents. He bashed the presidential hopefuls that year with trademark Trump braggadocio. Pat Buchanan was a “Hitler lover”; Al Gore was an “anointed” leader; George W. Bush had substandard business skills. Mr. Trump said he was for a woman’s right to have an abortion, a position he has since reversed.

By February 2000 he had abandoned the idea of running, concluding that the Reform Party was fraught with infighting that he likened to “general fratricide.” The head of the party at the time complained, “Donald Trump came in, promoted his hotels, he promoted his book, he promoted himself at our expense.”

Just as then, the media now is watching with breathless anticipation. The anatomy of the latest Trump for President gambit also has mysterious New Hampshire origins, just like his 1987 efforts. On Oct. 3, a few weeks into Season 10 of “The Apprentice,” Time.com reported that New Hampshire residents had received phone polling queries of unknown origin that appeared to be testing Mr. Trump’s viability as a candidate. Later that week, Mr. Trump said of his presidential aspirations on Fox, “For the first time in my life, I’m actually thinking about it.”

A group of New Hampshire Trump loyalists started a Web site called ShouldTrumpRun.com; they said Mr. Trump had nothing to do with their efforts.

Then, however, there was little change in ratings for “The Apprentice,” which were only slightly higher in the weeks after news broke about his presidential flirtations. By February, Mr. Trump’s name began to percolate in the news media as a presidential hopeful. He has made headlines as far away as India and Australia.

Yet Mr. Trump has a well known fear of germs, which he has promised to conquer before he starts the glad-handing required of presidential candidates. His most serious effort yet at campaigning was done mainly at a distance from crowds — a speech in February at CPAC, a gathering of conservatives in Washington.

His comments about Mr. Obama’s birth have been the subject of lengthy, heated debates on cable programs like “Morning Joe” on MSNBC.

He was a guest last week three nights in a row on Fox’s “O’Reilly Factor.” And starting Monday, Mr. Trump will be a weekly guest on its morning show “Fox & Friends,” which is touting “Mondays with Trump.”

Whether or not they take him seriously — and some surely do — media outlets have found great grist in Mr. Trump. He makes news as a serious candidate or an unserious self-promoter. Either way, he makes news.

“We are doing lots of coverage of nearly every possible and plausible candidate,” said Jim VandeHei, executive editor of Politico. “Trump certainly falls into that category.”

Mika Brzezinski, a friend of Mr. Trump’s and co-host of “Morning Joe,” where he appears every few weeks, said she takes his candidacy as “seriously as anyone that wants to run for president.” But she said it was her obligation to call him out on the birth certificate issue, as she did on TV last week. “Along the lines of friends don’t let friends drive drunk,” she said, “friends are honest with each other.”


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Sources: Fox News, MSNBC, NY Times, Youtube, Google Maps

Obama & Which GOP Candidate In 2012?

So Which Potential GOP Presidential Candidate Will Go Up Against Sitting President Barack Obama In 2012?

Will It Be:

Donald Trump,
Mitt Romney,,
Newt Gingrich,
Tim Pawlenty,
Mike Huckabee,
Mitch Daniels,
Haley Barbour,
Jon Huntsman,
Rick Santorum,
Congressman Paul Ryan,
Or....
Sarah Palin?

Truth Is Probably NONE Of Them!

They Will Possibly Knock Themselves Out Of The Running Via Negative, Vindictive Campaigns During The Approaching Primaries.

Stay Tuned.

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The 2012 GOP Presidential field


It may be almost a year until the Iowa caucuses and no candidates have formally declared that they're running — but the race for the 2012 GOP nomination is already underway.

Here's a look at the Republicans who may throw their hat into the ring to compete for President Barack Obama's job.

Continue...http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42392382/ns/politics-decision_2012/





2012 GOP presidential candidates confront a changing landscape


This is not an easy time for Republicans who are thinking of running for president in 2012. Whatever assumptions about the road ahead that may have existed a few months ago suddenly look more complicated, because of unfolding events here and abroad.

In the weeks after the midterm elections, a prospective GOP candidate might have assumed some or all of the following: President Obama was weakened. Republicans were ascendant. The GOP’s message had great resonance. The world was challenging, but those challenges were, for the most part, known.

That’s not where things stand today. Prospective Republican candidates are having to rethink their assumptions at a time when they are at the mercy of other events and other people and when public opinion on many of the big issues is unsettled.

Start with the budget battles in Washington. Republicans can take some satisfaction in knowing that their midterm victories have forced the president to give ground on the issue of spending, tax cuts, debt and deficits. The debate in Washington right now is about how much or little to cut spending. So there is still resonance in the GOP’s small-government message, but there is dissonance as well.

Republicans are badly split on how to fight this battle. House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) is caught between the demands of tea party activists and many freshman Republicans, who want a major confrontation, and the reality that some compromise will be required to keep the government running.

Party leaders such as Boehner want substantial cuts but also want to avoid a government shutdown. Some conservative members, responding to grass-roots sentiments, say a shutdown might be necessary to make the point that spending must be cut even more dramatically. “Shut it down!” Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) told a tea party rally Thursday.

No one can predict the outcome of this year’s budget battles. The question this weekend is whether Republicans, Democrats and the president can reach agreement on a measure to fund the government for the rest of the fiscal year.

As this fight plays out, the more consequential battle will be joined. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) is preparing to release a GOP budget that is expected to include big cuts in discretionary spending, entitlement reforms and other significant changes.

That will trigger a debate over the size and scope of government, spending priorities and political leadership that will probably reverberate into 2012. Will congressional Republicans smartly navigate these battles in a way that wins public support or misplay their hand in ways that damage the party’s presidential nominee in 2012?

The presidential candidates are mostly powerless to affect to how these events play out. In the meantime, they will have to decide whether to stand with those in the party who call for confrontation or those willing to try to negotiate a real agreement with Obama and the Democrats.

Republican presidential candidates have faced this problem before. In 1996, Bob Dole was hostage to the House Republicans, led by then-Speaker (and now likely 2012 candidate) Newt Gingrich, in the showdown with then-President Bill Clinton. Dole advisers watched helplessly as Gingrich helped force a government shutdown that helped boost Clinton’s standing and make the general election a foregone conclusion. Four years later, George W. Bush outlined his disagreements with House Republicans to appeal to swing voters.

The second arena where events are playing out with broad implications for 2012 is the states. Here, too, Republican presidential candidates are mostly bystanders to battles that will shape the 2012 landscape.

Republican governors and legislators are showing the public an undiluted model of conservative governance, which could come to Washington in 2013 if the GOP were to win the White House, pick up the Senate and hold the House.

Governors such as Chris Christie of New Jersey, Scott Walker of Wisconsin, John Kasich of Ohio, Rick Snyder of Michigan and Rick Scott of Florida are enacting tough measures to cut spending, curb the power of public employee unions and provide business with significant tax breaks.

Christie has become a hero to many Republican activists across the country for taking on public employee unions. Overall, however, the GOP-led efforts have drawn, at best, mixed reviews in the states most affected. A number of the new governors now have negative approval ratings. There is plenty of time to turn those numbers around, but the party as a whole faces a challenge in selling its agenda to the public.

Prospective presidential candidates have applauded the governors’ actions but have little power over how effectively those state executives manage their politics. Polls show the public has greater sympathy for the position of the unions than the governors. With possible recall elections coming in Wisconsin and a possible referendum in Ohio, the battle for public opinion is far from over.

Then there is the economy, long seen as the president’s biggest vulnerability. Friday’s jobless report showed a gain of 216,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticking down again to 8.8 percent — a full percentage point lower than at the time of the midterm elections.

There are enough potential problems on the horizon to make any forecaster cautious, but Republican candidates might have to recalibrate their perceptions of the economy and their critiques of the president as they prepare for the campaign.

Libya presents another case study of the difficulty of setting a course in the middle of a storm. Prospective Republican presidential candidates have been almost universally critical of the president’s handling of Libya while generally supportive of military action. Their own comments about dealing with a rapidly changing Middle East have been far from definitive.

If GOP candidates hope to find clear guidance about U.S. policy in Libya from the public, they may come away confused. Peyton Craighill in The Washington Post’s polling unit assembled recent survey results and found attitudes about U.S. military action varied depending on the way questions were asked or the order in which they were asked.

For example, in a Quinnipiac University poll completed the night of the president’s nationally televised speech, just 41 percent of Americans said the United States should use military force to remove Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi from power. An Associated Press-GfK poll completed the same night found 55 percent supporting “increased military action” by the United States to remove Gaddafi.

Events at home and overseas will keep changing. Republican presidential candidates have only limited control over the political environment, but they do have a choice as to which voters they try to speak to as they campaign. Will it be the party’s noisiest activists, the broader Republican electorate or the swing voters who will actually decide the election in 2012?


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Sources: MSNBC, The Atlantic, Washington Post, Yahoo News, Google Maps

GOP Remains Focused On Winning Elections & Fundraising

Tea leaves: Republican Establishment Still Rules



The widely anticipated civil war within the Republican Party is off to a decidedly dull start.

Defying predictions from last year, early evidence suggests that party leaders and even most grass-roots activists are more interested in winning elections than in ideological bloodletting.

A spate of recent developments points to two conclusions about the modern Republican Party that were in doubt as recently as a few months ago.

The first is that for all the talk about tea party insurgents and fulminating radio and cable commentators taking over, the GOP remains above all an establishment party.

GOP leaders easily swatted down a proposed “purity test” for candidates at last week’s Republican National Committee meeting — an indication that party officials are no more willing to turn over the keys to right-wing activists now than they were during the Bush years.

In Illinois, Rep. Mark Kirk is hardly a conservative heartthrob — and some activists are openly contemptuous of what they perceive as his moderation — but he easily won the Republican Senate primary there Tuesday night, against a more conservative, underfunded opponent, in part because he is seen as having the best chance to capture President Barack Obama’s old Senate seat.

Recent elections also suggest a second trend: It may not be all that hard in a favorable political environment for skilled Republicans to bridge or blur the ideological divide between the conservative activists who dominate the party and the more moderate swing voters whom candidates need to win office.

Scott Brown has become the toast of Republicans nationally by winning Ted Kennedy’s old Senate seat in Massachusetts even though he supports abortion rights. Conversely, Republican Bob McDonnell defied predictions that he was too far to the right to attract moderate voters to win a landslide in the Virginia governor’s race.

Much about recent events reflects basic politics: Smart politicians have always calibrated their ideological profile to fit local circumstances.

But after conservative activists chased liberal Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava out of a special election in New York’s 23rd District last fall, some worried that activists were pushing the party so far to the right that it would be unable to compete nationally.

Earlier last year, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs crowed that Rush Limbaugh was the real leader of the Republican Party.

So far, though, it seems clear that Republicans who deviate from party orthodoxy or downplay social issues can be successful as long as they are not egregiously out of step with the base and are savvy enough to harness populist anger at Washington to their benefit.

“This is a reform impulse,” former George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove said of the anti-Washington, anti-Obama mood that has fueled the tea parties. “Our candidates have to be willing to talk about spending and deficits and the expansion of government in people’s lives in a way that people find compelling and authentic.”

Former Rep. Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican who has regularly urged his party to be more open to moderates, said Republicans like McDonnell and Brown have smartly tapped into populist outrage by “seeing it as an opportunity.”

“Wide-awake leaders don’t need to be threatened by the tea parties,” Davis said, adding: “It’s easier to include coalitions when you don’t have to govern.”

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“As a general rule, I think the tea party folks are not going to be that huge a problem for Republicans,” agreed longtime political analyst Charlie Cook. “They can pull in a bunch of disaffected people that haven’t been involved in politics and in most cases can be channeled in constructive ways.”

Few party officials, of course, want to sound critical of the tea party activists or Limbaugh’s listeners, for fear of offending the very voters they need to keep winning. But strategists say the big-tent approach of their recent successful candidates is offering the way forward.

“It’s becoming clear that the calculus for winning in this environment has much more to do with understanding the underlying economic anxiety of the entire electorate, versus just focusing on the anger of one sliver of it,” said Republican consultant Kevin Madden.

It was tea party passions that helped seed Brown’s upset in Massachusetts. Conservative activist money and volunteers flowed from across the country into the Bay State.

But Brown himself was a party regular, not an insurgent, and his campaign was guided from the beginning by the veteran political strategists who helped elect Mitt Romney governor and who ran his presidential campaign. These Romney hands were quietly aided by the money and strategic guidance of the National Republican Senatorial Committee as well as by top-notch, out-of-state pollsters and consultants.

Many activists may be unaware of what a mainstream political figure Brown is. Even now, weeks after his election, conservatives are forwarding a 1½-minute video under the subject line “WOW! Powerful! Massachusetts Scott Brown Commercial.” It has gotten more than 1.4 million views.

It depicts Brown as a modern-day freedom fighter, comparing him to a revolutionary warrior and Democratic Washington to the British crown, with phrases such as “liberty” and “tyranny” sprinkled about and images of last fall’s tea party march in Washington in the finale.

But the ads that actually lifted Brown to victory were conventional, though smartly crafted, spots portraying him as a truck-driving Everyman — not a lamp-carrying colonist. In fact, it wasn’t Paul Revere but, rather, Democrat John F. Kennedy whom Brown was likened to in one of his commercials. In addition to the now-famous one of him driving his black GMC, another ad showed him working the triple deckers in gritty South Boston. The message was that he was safe for Democrats — or those who were raised as Democrats — to support, not that he wanted to start another revolution.

In Virginia, McDonnell also enjoyed great enthusiasm from conservative activists in his gubernatorial bid. And, unlike Brown, he was a genuine ideologue, having made his name in the state Legislature as a social conservative.

But McDonnell’s campaign was more Tom Davis than it was Pat Robertson, as the graduate of the latter’s law school ran straight toward the center with a campaign stressing jobs, education and transportation.

At times, especially when he was downstate, McDonnell did tie his Democratic opponent to a federal government that the Republican depicted as encroaching on the authority of the states. But the rhetorical bones thrown out for the benefit of the tea partiers were not what was in the carefully tested ads that blanketed Northern Virginia, dominated by more moderate voters, in which the candidate stressed his local upbringing.

There was grumbling at times from Christian conservatives that McDonnell was ignoring their issues, but after losing consecutive governor’s races and both Senate seats, the right wing was more hungry for a win than agitated that one of its own wasn’t railing against abortion and gay marriage.

In Illinois, Kirk, a moderate congressman from Chicago’s North Shore suburbs, cruised to victory Tuesday against the more conservative Patrick Hughes. Like Brown a cultural moderate, Kirk had taken flak from tea party activists over his vote in favor of cap-and-trade legislation on carbon emissions and others on the right over his support for abortion rights.

But on most fiscal and national security issues, Kirk is in the party’s mainstream, and he dispatched the underfunded Hughes by 37 percent.

And in the Brown model, Kirk has already begun a general election campaign that both appeals to local sensibilities (decrying the state’s rampant corruption and one-party control) and reaches conservatives (hitting Democrats on spending).

That there is no conservative coup taking place within the GOP was also made clear as the national party met in Hawaii last week. A much-discussed “purity resolution” that would have barred party support and funding for candidates who didn’t meet an issue test wasn’t brought up for a vote. In fact, before the general session even began, the state party chairmen unanimously passed a resolution expressing their opposition to such an idea.

What was ultimately approved by the committee was a toothless measure that won’t prevent party officials from supporting moderate candidates.

“Those people want to win elections and they know it’s about addition, not subtraction,” said Rove of the Republican National Committee vote.

The one race where there is at least a perceived threat from the tea party crowd toward the establishment is the Florida GOP Senate primary.

But despite how the race has been framed, Marco Rubio, who is running against Gov. Charlie Crist, is hardly a wild-eyed activist. Rubio is a former state House speaker and Jeb Bush protégé whose donors include such party establishment types as Rove and whose advisers include longtime national strategists such Todd Harris and Heath Thompson.

Further, Crist’s problems aren’t merely ideological. Yes, he’s paying a price for having supported the stimulus package. But he’s also hurt himself more deeply by seeming to nakedly play to the political mood of the moment, positioning himself to the center when that seems wise and shifting right when threatened by his own party.

As notable, if less commented upon, as the Florida match is the Pennsylvania Senate contest.

Former Rep. Pat Toomey, a past Club for Growth president who was once thought unelectable by his own party, has moderated himself slightly (he backed the confirmation of Justice Sonia Sotomayor) and is hammering Sen. Arlen Specter on fiscal issues.

It’s still early, and Specter may lose his own primary, but Toomey is enjoying a 14-point lead, according to a new poll — seeming to prove that if they run disciplined campaigns that home in on issues that voters are concerned with, the conditions could be such that even candidates to the right of their state’s mainstream have a chance to win.






GOP Cash Provides 2012 Clues


The battle for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination quietly began last year — maybe not for the candidates, but for their political groups.

Sarah Palin’s committee paid more than $50,000 for policy advice in the second half of 2009, during which Tim Pawlenty’s and Mike Huckabee’s spent nearly $97,000 combined on fundraising lists. Newt Gingrich’s dropped $585,000 to jet him across the country. Mitt Romney’s doled out $17,500 to New Hampshire pols and causes.

The stated mission of the committees was to boost Republican candidates, rebuild the party and advance conservative policies. But an examination of recently filed finance reports covering the second half of 2009 shows that the groups also are serving to boost their leaders’ viability as White House hopefuls and build political operations that could launch their runs.

Palin’s political action committee paid $21,000 to Kim Daniels, a Maryland lawyer who is an expert on health care “rights of conscience,” for domestic policy advice, and an additional $30,000 to the lobbying and consulting firm of Randy Scheunemann for foreign policy advice. The two helped the former Alaska governor craft a paid speech in Hong Kong in September, which was interpreted as an effort to develop a more polished public policy profile.

In the final six months of last year, the PACs founded by Pawlenty and Huckabee — a governor and a former governor who have been criticized for their lack of national fundraising network — paid $52,000 and $45,000, respectively, to rent or buy fundraising lists.

Meanwhile, Gingrich’s committee spent hundreds of thousands on charter flights to get the former House speaker to speaking engagements across the country.

And the network of PACs led by Romney, the former Massachusetts governor whose presidential ambitions hinge largely on his ability to win New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary, in 2009 contributed $17,500 to candidates and committees in the Granite State.

Jason Torchinsky, a Republican campaign finance lawyer, said that almost anyone thinking seriously about running for president in 2012 should have already started some form of political nonprofit.

“Over the last 20 years, this has become the pattern for people thinking about running for president,” said Torchinsky. “It certainly makes things easier if they decide to become a candidate later this year or early next year, because they will have built a donor list and relationships with local officials and party activists, as well as consultants.”

Between July 1 and the beginning of this year, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Romney’s PAC (Free and Strong America) brought in more than $1.6 million, Palin’s (Sarah PAC) raised nearly $1.4 million, Huckabee’s (Huck PAC) raised $519,000 and Pawlenty’s (Freedom First) raked in nearly $1.3 million, though it’s only been up and running for three months.

But according to a report filed with the Internal Revenue Service, Gingrich’s group, American Solutions for Winning the Future, lapped them all, raising $6.4 million in the second half of the year.

As a so-called 527 organization, named for the section of the IRS code under which it’s established, American Solutions can accept unlimited donations from individuals and corporations, but is barred from contributing to candidates.

The others’ groups are leadership PACs, which are limited to accepting maximum donations of $5,000 per-person-per-year, and can contribute to candidates and committees. Yet the PACs in question contributed a combined total of only $124,000 from their federal accounts in the second half of 2009 — less than 3 percent of what they raised in that time and about the same amount that they spent on catering.

To be sure, the groups helped spur the GOP in ways other than direct contributions, but those contributions pale in comparison to their collective spending on fundraising ($4.6 million), consultants ($1.2 million) or even travel ($807,000).

All the prospective 2012-ers and their groups’ representatives insist their groups are focused on raising money to boost Republicans headed into the 2010 midterms.

“We’re obviously very pleased with the support we received last quarter, and we’re hopeful that we’ll be able to elect a lot of conservative candidates this fall,” said Alex Conant, a former Republican National Committee spokesman now working for Pawlenty’s PAC. “Beyond that, who knows what will happen.”

Conant’s eponymous consulting firm was paid $10,000 by Pawlenty’s PAC in the last three months of 2009, making him one of a handful of savvy young Washington operatives retained by the PAC in its few short months of operation. Others include former Bush White House political director Sara Taylor, former Republican Governors Association director Phil Musser, Web gurus Patrick Ruffini and Mindy Finn and campaign finance lawyer Michael Toner.

Their firms were paid a combined $34,000 by the PAC, its FEC report shows.

Pawlenty’s PAC operation remains light, skewing toward consultants, and retaining only five full-time employees. Huckabee’s, on the other hand, paid a few consultants, but reported paying six employees’ salaries (and benefits), the largest of which went to his daughter.

The biggest operations were maintained by Gingrich’s group, which in the second half of 2009, paid $895,000 to 21 employees and an additional $539,000 to 13 consultants, and Romney’s, which paid $154,000 to eight employees and $390,000 to 11 consultants.

Palin did not pay a single full-time employee salary or benefit, relying instead on a small group of Alaska-based consultants and a few Washington hands.

Campaign finance and tax laws prohibit politicians from using their leadership PACs or 527s to directly fund their own campaigns. Otherwise, though, there are few restrictions on how leadership PACs and 527s can spend their cash, and Sarah PAC’s spending, in particular, occasionally blurred the line between her political and personal lives.

On June 5, for example, the PAC paid $260 for food and drink at Yankee Stadium when Palin and her husband, Todd, took in a ballgame with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and his wife Judith.

The PAC also paid Harper Collins, publisher of Palin’s best-selling memoir “Going Rogue,” $68,000 for books to be sent to donors and to subsidize portions of her book tour, which occasionally felt more like a campaign swing, including travel costs for her personal photographer, who also was paid $14,200 directly by the PAC.


Sources: Politico, MSNBC

Mitt Romney & Other GOP 2012 Presidential Bid Players

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Mitt Romney Rises Again


After laying low during Palinpalooza, the former governor is back atop the GOP pack for 2012. Mark McKinnon's year-end rundown of who's hot (Rick Perry) and who's not (Mike Huckabee).


The way things are going, maybe we should go ahead and hold the 2012 elections after all—instead of just reappointing Obama president by acclamation.

As we head into 2010, it seems increasingly likely that the 2012 presidential contest will at least be competitive. President Obama’s favorable ratings are now consistently below 50 percent; no candidate has been elected president with a favorable of 47 percent or lower and the Rasmussen Poll this week has him at 44. He has yet to pass any signature legislation on the big issues on which he campaigned, and he now has Afghanistan strapped to his back like a political refrigerator.

Correspondingly, we’re seeing a lot of activity among prospective GOP players. By this time next year, the field will be largely set. What is most interesting, comparing the list today with the one a year ago, is who has fallen off it or otherwise lost altitude.

Mark Sanford and John Ensign, once bright lights, have been doomed by the ancient curse of infidelity. Jon Huntsman got detailed to China. Bobby Jindal gave a painful speech which reminded voters of Kenneth from 30 Rock. And Mike Huckabee’s chances took a serious blow when a prisoner he freed as Arkansas governor allegedly shot and killed four policemen before being gunned down himself.

So where does that leave the field today heading into next year? Who’s up and who’s down? Four candidates who started the year on the list are off (Sanford, Ensign, Jindal and Huntsman), replaced by newcomers: Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Joe Scarborough, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry.


1. Mitt Romney

Republicans historically like an orderly process—handing the baton to the candidate who has patiently waited his or her turn in line. That guy, this time around, is Romney. He has been plodding and dutiful. He is tanned. He’s rested. He’s rich. And he appears ready for another round. There’s a great deal to be said for having been through the gauntlet before. He now has the experience and knowledge to navigate the treacherous and tricky waters of a Republican primary contest. He knows economics, has built businesses and created jobs both in the private and public sector, and he established health care reform in Massachusetts. And if he runs his race like he did the last month of the last campaign, true to who he really is, he should be the nominee.

2. Sarah Palin

Palin cruises around like she has a political jet pack on: powerful, fascinating, and crazily erratic, and you don’t know if she’s going to fly up into the stratosphere or hit a building. But, she is a force to be reckoned with. She says she looks for “open doors” to plot her political path. Well, alleged cop-killer Maurice Clemmons, granted clemency in 2000 by Mike Huckabee, might have just given her one to walk through for 2012—because Huckabee and Palin would clearly be fighting for many of the same voters, and the Clemmons incident could drive Huckabee from the race. Just a couple of weeks ago, Huckabee was leading the prospective field and polling within four points of Obama. Republicans primary voters are notoriously law- and order-obsessed, so Palin has virtually an open field in Iowa, South Carolina, and other primary states dominated by Christian conservatives.

Hot off her book tour, and the darling of the tea party crowd, Hurricane Sarah is blowing toward the 2012 shore.

3. Tim Pawlenty

Of all the prospective candidates, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has been the most forward-leaning and aggressive. At times, he seems to have gone too far—clumsily kissing the right’s rings, just as Romney did four years ago (Pawlenty jumped out early supporting Joe Wilson after he called Obama a “liar”). But he’s raised his profile and is now viewed as one of the most likely presidential aspirants, which was hardly the case last January. As far as boosting his name ID is concerned, he’s doing everything right.

As the country shifts focus toward budget and deficit issues next year (Obama will strategically try and shift course in this direction in his State of the Union address), Pawlenty is well-positioned to run on the economy and fiscal-discipline issues. In fact, the Democrats in his state are suing him for cutting last year’s budget to balance it (what a gift!).

He’s a conservative whose tone, personality and history help him draw support from centrists. He could end up everyone’s second choice (assuming Romney and Palin both run) and that’s a heck of a place to be in a crowed and wild primary.

4. John Thune

If he would run, John Thune could be the Bob McDonnell of the 2012 GOP field. McDonnell ran a textbook campaign to become Virginia’s governor this fall, helping to shut down the talk of that state turning permanently blue. Like McDonnell, Thune is clearly conservative, but in a pragmatic, rural/small-town way, not in a threatening ideological sense. The senator from South Dakota’s got central-casting good looks and comes across as humble and quiet; he has a Gary Cooper sensibility about him.

Thune is up for reelection next year, so he’ll put aside any talk about running in the near term. But if no one in the field is lighting up the boards by summer of 2011, look for a strong draft-Thune movement.

5. Mike Huckabee

Huckabee’s long string of luck ran out recently when Maurice Clemmons, a prisoner who was granted clemency by Huckbee in 2000, allegedly shot and killed four policemen in Seattle. It wasn’t his first time: Huckabee granted more clemencies and pardons during his tenure as governor than the three previous occupants of Arkansas’ statehouse combined (including Bill Clinton). I believe that effectively kills his chances. Rush Limbaugh is already comparing Clemmons to Willie Horton. And Pawlenty is already going after Huckabee’s clemency record, comparing it unfavorably to his own.

I would be very happy to be wrong. I think Huckabee made the right and humane call on Clemmons, who was sentenced to 108 years for crimes he committed when he was 16 and 17 (the worst of which were burglary and robbery). This issue will test Huckabee’s considerable oratorical skills. But the man is an ordained Baptist preacher, and it will be fascinating to see how he creates a narrative to respond to an issue he would face every day on the campaign trail.

Maybe he can create a serious conversation about the notions of redemption and forgiveness in our criminal justice system. Or not. In which case, he’ll probably always have a home at Fox News.

6. Joe Scarborough

Say it’s so, Joe. America could use a jolt of Morning Joe in 2012. The host of MSNBC’s Morning Joe, former Florida congressman Joe Scarborough, would be a terrific candidate. He’s young, articulate, and telegenic. He has core republican bona fides—but is also enough centrist ideas to appeal to moderates and young voters. And he plays guitar.

The problem for Joe is that he appears to be very happy with his current gig. And why not? He gets paid a lot of money to hang out with his charming sidekick Mika Brzezinski, shoot the bull with interesting and entertaining people and, at the end of the day, go home. And spend weekends with his family. Why give all that up?

Because in your heart and at your core you are a servant of democracy, Joe. The debate would be so much more interesting with you in it.

7. Haley Barbour

Don’t laugh. Haley’s as wily a fox as anyone out there prowling the political countryside these days. He’s smart, strategic and has been around the rodeo a very long time. Sure he’s a caricature of the classic Southern politician: old, large, white, honey-lipped, and a former lobbyist to boot. But if voters are really tired of Obama, they’ll be looking for the mirror opposite of the man occupying the Oval Office. And that would clearly be Haley.

8. Newt Gingrich

Newt is one of those candidates who always seems to encourage discussion of their candidacies—not so much because they necessarily plan to run, or even want to run, but rather because it’s simply good for business.

Gingrich is one of the brightest minds in the party—maybe even the brightest. And he’s damn good at starting revolutions at the grassroots level. But our bet is that while he may contribute in many ways and continue to tease, in the end he probably won’t go for the Full Monty.

9. Mitch Daniels

Daniels has been an extraordinarily successful and effective governor in Indiana, a state that has been recently more blue than red. A no-nonsense, tell-it-like-is conservative, Daniels cruised to re-election by 18 points last year when Obama was winning the state.

U.S. News & World Report maintains that Daniels has been consulting with veterans of national campaigns, including Dan Quayle, the former Indiana senator-turned-vice president. GOP12.com pointed out this week that Quayle said recently of Daniels, “he certainly would be fully qualified, very competitive and could possibly be the nominee and give Obama a good run.”

10. Rick Perry

The only real question about Texas Governor Rick Perry is why he hasn’t been on any lists until now. He’s already the longest-serving governor in Texas history and may be headed for his third term next fall. Veteran Texas political observer Paul Burka makes a compelling case for why he should be considered:

1. Unlike Huckabee, Romney, and Palin, he is still in office.

2. He is the longest-serving governor in Texas history.

3. He is governor of the biggest red state that sends the most delegates to the Republican convention.

4. He has the best conservative record of any contender.

5. He has assiduously courted key figures in the Republican establishment.

6. The Murdoch news empire loves him. He is the beneficiary of puff pieces in The Wall Street Journal and softball questions on Fox News.

7. He has an extensive fundraising apparatus in Texas that is capable of raking in enough cash to make the race, and he is now in charge of finance for the Republican Governors Association, giving him access to the GOP’s big national donors.

8. He has not one but two strong messages. The first: Washington is corrupt to the core and out of touch with Main Street. The second: the Texas economic miracle.

9. He was quick to understand the significance of the tea party movement and attended many of the early gatherings.

10. With rare exceptions (such as the HPV vaccine controversy), he almost never deviates from the conservative line.


Watch List:

• Rick Santorum: The former conservative senator from Pennsylvania has strong appeal among Christian conservatives. He is articulate, aggressive and ambitious. If Huckabee fades, and Palin doesn’t run—and maybe even if they don’t—look for Santorum to be camped out in Iowa.

• Mike Pence: Indiana Congressman Pence has been piling up frequent-flier miles raising money for Republican candidates. Popular with his colleagues, Pence was elected by his House colleagues as Republican Conference chairman, the third highest-ranking job in the Republican leadership. In his last election, he unopposed and was elected unanimously.

• Ron Paul: Where are you? The environment is ripe for a libertarian like Paul to stir the tea party pot in 2012.

• Eric Cantor: The House Minority Whip is the hottest GOP talent on the hill. He has become the voice of the loyal opposition, travels frequently for party fundraisers, and created the National Council for a New America to promote Republican ideas.

• Jeb Bush: The first son of George H.W. Bush was supposed to be the 43rd President. He is widely respected by conservatives and it’s unlikely, but not impossible, that he could be the 45th, or 46th. And there’s always his telegenic Hispanic son, George P., who could keep the job in the family as 47.

• Jim DeMint: They don’t come much more conservative than South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint, who has called for gay teachers to be banned from the classroom and says he “cringes” at the thought of a gay or lesbian president. He’s a Tea Party favorite and jumping into contested primaries around the country backing anti-establishment conservatives. If Palin/Huckabee/Santorum don’t get traction, DeMint could put on his running shoes.



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Sources: The Daily Beast, MSNBC, US News & Report, Wikipedia, TPM, Newscom, Google Maps