Unemployment Rate For Sept. 2010 Remains At 9.6! Hurts Democrats

Will The Job Numbers Affect The Election?


The new national unemployment rate released this morning held steady at 9.6 percent, marking the final time this economic data point comes out before the November elections. But voters’ perceptions of the economy were likely determined months ago, according to political scientists and economists, and this latest number should have little effect on the outcome of the races. “It’s way too late to change the public’s very pessimistic view of the economy,” says Thomas E. Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Although the midterm congressional elections have dominated news headlines during the past few weeks, Americans remain focused on the state of the economy, according to the latest poll from the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. Roughly 28 percent of the 1,002 people surveyed paid close attention to economic news, compared to just 12 percent of respondents who said they followed congressional races.

And the economy remains the key issue in the fall campaign, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll.

This new unemployment number re-enforces voters’ dismal view of the economy, Mann says. Roughly 14.8 million people remain unemployed, with jobless rate virtually unchanged for all major demographic groups, and the number of discouraged workers has risen to 1.2 million, up by roughly 500,000 from one year ago, according to the labor department data.

Historically, a weak economy has hurt the political fortunes of incumbent candidates. It’s hard to imagine voters in the state of Nevada, for instance, being as receptive to the advances of GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle if the unemployment rate were lower than its current 14.4 percent. President George H.W. Bush was tripped up by a bad economy when he reneged on a campaign promise to not raise taxes, and Jimmy Carter’s presidency, which lasted for one term, was similarly hurt by a recession and a spike in oil prices.

The latest unemployment numbers won’t do anything to counteract voters’ impression that President Obama is not doing enough to tackle the economy. Now that the president has been in office for close to two years, the sputtering recovery and lack of economic growth and substantial job creation inevitably hangs on him. “He went for health care over jobs. It turns out the sequencing was wrong,” says Sharyn O’Halloran, a political economist at Columbia University.

The weak economy also has disproportionately hurt the blue-collar workers nicknamed “lunch-pail Democrats,” who can easily swing toward Republicans if they’re dissatisfied. The unemployment rate for men now stands at 9.8 percent; the gap between the unemployment rate for men versus women remains at 9.8 percent versus 8 percent, continuing the trend of this economic downturn being a “mancession.”

The only way Democrats won’t suffer losses in the midterms is if the economy makes a dramatic comeback, and that seems unlikely over the next few weeks. All the party can do now is focus on long-term economic growth—not just the soon-to-expire Bush tax cuts, O’Halloran says, but investments in infrastructure that hopefully can boost productivity and create jobs eventually.


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Sources: CBS News, CNBC, Newsweek, Pew Research, Google Maps

Richard Burr Remains Comfortably Ahead Of Elaine Marshall: Rasmussen Poll

Election 2010: North Carolina Senate


Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr remains comfortably ahead of Democratic challenger Elaine Marshall in his bid for reelection in North Carolina.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely North Carolina Voters shows Burr enjoying his best showing to date, with 54% support to Marshall's 38% when leaners are included. One percent (1%) favor some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

These new findings move the race from Leans GOP to Solid GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.

Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. From this point forward, Rasmussen Reports considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.

If leaners are not included, Burr holds a 51% to 36% lead over Marshall, North Carolina's longtime secretary of state. Last month, the Republican who is seeking a second six-year term in the Senate posted a 49% to 40% lead.

Burr has been ahead most of the year. Marshall pulled even temporarily in June, enjoying a bounce from her victory in a Democratic Primary runoff. But with the exception of the post-runoff poll, Burr's support has ranged from 48% to 52% all year, while Marshall has earned 32% to 40% of the vote in those same surveys.

However, just 59% of Burr supporters say they are already certain how they will vote in November, compared to 71% of Marshall voters.

While Burr had long been viewed as one of the most vulnerable GOP senators in this election cycle, Democratic leaders clearly are moving away from that point of view. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, in fact, is now shifting its hopes for pickups to the races in Kentucky and Missouri where Republicans are retiring from the Senate.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on September 8, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Burr draws 85% support from Republican voters in North Carolina, while just 66% of the state's Democrats currently back Marshall. The Republican leads among voters not affiliated with either party by more than 30 points.

Barack Obama edged John McCain 50% to 49% in the 2008 election to carry North Carolina, but just 44% of the state's voters now approve of the job he is doing as president. Fifty-five percent (55%) disapprove. This is in line with the job approval ratings Obama earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of North Carolina voters favor repeal of the new national health care law, while 35% oppose repeal. This includes 43% who Strongly Favor repeal and 24% who are Strongly Opposed. These findings are comparable to voter attitudes nationwide.

But 52% of the state's voters say repeal of the health care law will be good for the economy.

As in other states around the country, voters in the Tar Heel State put economic issues far ahead on their list of concerns this election season. Seven percent (7%) of the state's voters rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, but 59% describe it as poor. Twenty-two percent (22%) say the economy is getting better; 51% believe it is getting worse.

Seventy-one percent (71%) say the country is in a recession.

Eighty-five percent (85%) know someone who is out of work and looking for a job. While 13% think the job market is getting better, 44% say it's worsening.

Burr is viewed favorably by 56% of North Carolina voters and unfavorably by 33%. This includes 22% with a Very Favorable opinion and 13% with a Very Unfavorable one.

Forty-six percent (46%) regard Marshall favorably, with 19% Very Favorable. Thirty-six percent (36%) hold an unfavorable opinion of her, including 14% Very Unfavorable.

Forty-four percent (44%) approve of the job Democratic Governor Beverly Perdue is doing, while 54% disapprove. These findings are unchanged from last month.

See toplines for other data from this survey. Full demographic data is available to Platinum Members only.

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In North Carolina, Rasmussen Reports polled on three races during the 2008 campaign. In the race for president, Rasmussen polling showed McCain over Obama by a point, 50% to 49%. Obama ended up edging out McCain 50% to 49%. In the 2008 North Carolina Senate race, Rasmussen polling showed Kay Hagan defeating Elizabeth Dole 52% to 46%, and Hagan won 53% to 44%. Rasmussen Reports was the first to show Hagan leading Dole. In the governor's race, the final Rasmussen poll showed Pat McCrory leading Perdue 51%-47%. Perdue won 50% to 47%.

In the 2004 presidential race, Rasmussen polling in North Carolina showed Bush defeating Kerry 53% to 43%. Bush won the state 56% to 44%.

See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.

Rasmussen Reports has recently surveyed Senate races in Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.


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Sources: Carolina Politics Online, McClatchy Newspapers, Youtube, Google Maps

Lassiter & Foxx Tied In Charlotte's Mayor Race...But Lassiter Has The Edge

Charlotte's Tied

With a week to go the race to be the next Mayor of Charlotte is all tied up. Anthony Foxx and John Lassiter are each at 45%.

The ultimate winner of this race is going to be determined by who can get their people out to the polls, and in particular what the breakdown of the electorate is by race and age.

There are major divisions along demographic lines in the candidates' support. Lassiter leads 63-29 among white voters, a gap even wider than in the Presidential race in North Carolina last year. Foxx has an 80-9 lead with African Americans.

Charlotte's population is 33% black and we project their share of the electorate at 32%. If excitement about the possibility of the city having its first black Mayor since the 80s results in African Americans turning out at a higher rate than whites Foxx will win. But black turnout has tended to lag in local elections and if that turns out to be the case Lassiter is the likely winner.

There are similarly large divisions along age lines. Lassiter leads 61-30 with senior citizens. Foxx is up 57-29 with voters under 30. We expect high turnout from old voters and low turnout from young voters but if the pattern is different than that give the advantage to Foxx.

While it is unclear who will win this race, one thing is certain: the contest is very unusual in the polarized world of 21st century American politics in that both candidates are quite popular. 59% of voters have a favorable opinion of Lassiter to only 19% negative. 52% have a positive opinion of Foxx to only 18% unfavorable. Most of the races we poll on right now voters are deciding based on who they hate less- this is a refreshing but rare one where they're picking who they like more.

Lassiter is hanging in there in this Democratic city because of a 51-31 lead with independents and because he's getting a bigger share of his party's vote (86%) than Foxx is getting of his (79%). We also find a likely electorate that is considerably more Republican leaning than the people who turned out last fall. While Barack Obama won the city by more than 30 points, the voters planning to come out this year supported the President by just a 52-44 margin.

That means McCain voters are planning to turn out right now at a considerably higher rate than Obama's, and it also means that Foxx probably has a lot more upside in the final week of the campaign. There are a lot more Democratic leaning voters sitting on their hands right now than Republicans and if the Foxx GOTV effort is successful in getting them out he should win. But it's not a given that Presidential only voters can be made interested in the Mayoral race, so this one's about as close as it could be.




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Sources: Public Policy Polling, McClatchy Newspapers, Charlotte Observer, Google Maps

Lassiter Wins Charlotte Primary With 8,516+ Votes!...Early Sign Of November Victory

GOP's Lassiter will face Foxx in Fall's Mayoral race


Despite a dismal turnout, Charlotte voters Tuesday set up the city's most competitive mayoral race in years, helped three city council members survive challenges and made a former incumbent the top vote-getter in his party.

Barely more than 4 percent of voters went to the polls in the Primaries.

Republican John Lassiter, boosted by higher turnout in southeast Charlotte, handily turned back two primary challengers for a long-anticipated contest against Democrat Anthony Foxx. The winner will become the city's first new Mayor in 14 years.

Three council incumbents – Democrats Nancy Carter, Patsy Kinsey and James Mitchell – easily won their primaries. That means that five of the seven district members are guaranteed seats. Only in two southeast Charlotte districts will voters have a choice in November.

Cannon's back, Belk is out

With Democrats already holding a 5-2 edge in district seats, control of council is expected to turn on the race for four at-large seats.

Despite being out of office for four years, former council member Patrick Cannon led incumbent Susan Burgess and two newcomers on the Democratic ticket. Cannon carried more than 100 precincts across the city.

On the Republican side, at-large incumbent Edwin Peacock III will lead a ticket with three newcomers. Not among them, however, was Georgia Belk.

Despite her well-known name and solid fundraising – she raised more than every Republican but Peacock – she finished fifth. Some voters blamed her association with her husband, controversial Mecklenburg District Judge Bill Belk.

“I was afraid some of his shenanigans might be an influence on her,” said Republican Dot Hailey, a retired teacher voting in east Charlotte.

The facets of race, protest

Democrats hope to win their first mayoral race since 1987, when Harvey Gantt won a second term. The primaries leave the party with a ticket that features its first African American mayoral candidate since Gantt and three black at-large candidates. They'll face an all-white Republican slate.

Charlotte has never had a race with a black mayoral candidate and more than two African Americans running at-large. Though African Americans make up around a third of city voters, UNC Charlotte political scientist Ted Arrington said Democrats will have to buck history.

“It's going to be very difficult if people vote along racial lines – and they do,” Arrington said. “It imperils Foxx … That's a very important factor in what happens in November. History tells us that. People who think we're ‘post-racial' on voting just haven't looked at the facts.”

Foxx doesn't expect Race to be an issue.

“What people want is the Leadership,” he said Tuesday. “It's going to be the responsibility of everybody running, white, black or otherwise, to be real good about explaining why people ought to vote … We've got the makings of a very, very strong ticket.”

Lassiter said Race shouldn't be an issue.

“I have visited churches in the African American community (and) the Hispanic community,” he said. “The obligation of the next mayor is to understand and embrace the diversity of Charlotte.”

While Democrats hope to build on last fall, when Pres. Barack Obama lifted other Democrats to victory in the county, Republicans hope to catch the energy of this summer's protests over health care and government spending.

Two of the GOP at-large candidates nominated Tuesday – Matthew Ridenhour and Tariq Bokhari – helped lead Tea Party protests this year. Lassiter believes such protests have energized his party's base.

“Even though they're focused primarily on national issues, they're excited,” he said.




Charlotte City Council overrides streetcar veto

Charlotte's streetcar was revived Monday night when the Charlotte City Council voted 7-4 to override Mayor Pat McCrory's veto on spending $4.5 million to design it.

After an hour-long debate, council member Warren Turner, a Democrat who represents west Charlotte, cast the deciding vote in favor.

Last month, McCrory vetoed a plan to pay URS Corp. $4.5 million to start design work on the line, which would run from Beatties Ford Road to Eastland Mall, via uptown. He argued that because of the recession, the city needed to cut its spending. He and other Republicans said it wasn't prudent to spend the money when Charlotte doesn't have a plan to pay for the line, which could cost $450 million.

But the council's Democratic majority said it was important to get the project started. They hope the Federal government will change its rules to pay for streetcar construction, and they argued by spending the money now the city would be first in line.

Council member Nancy Carter, who represents east Charlotte, said the vote was “crucial.”

She said that building the streetcar to Eastland Mall would spur efforts to redevelop the dying retail center.



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Sources: Charlotte Observer, Meck. Board of Elections, Charmeck.org, Youtube, Google Maps