Possible N.C. Political Game-Changers: 6 Trends Shaping Local & State Races
Who will hold power in Raleigh?
Not since 1898 have Republicans run the General Assembly. But a flurry of Democratic departures in the Senate, aggressive candidate recruiting for the House, ongoing budget woes and lingering Democratic scandals could create what Republicans hope will be their perfect storm.
In the Senate, Republicans need six seats to take control. Seven Democrats, including Majority Leader Tony Rand, plan to retire or already have left. Some, such as veteran David Hoyle of Gaston County, are in districts that otherwise lean Republican.
The GOP needs nine seats for control in the 120-member House. Minority Leader Paul Stam of Raleigh says among the Democratic seats he's targeting, 14 are in districts carried last year by Republican John McCain.
Last month Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling found voters split. A slight majority favored Republican legislative candidates. But independents, a crucial swing vote, preferred the GOP 45 percent to 23 percent.
"It's not as if the state is overwhelmingly deciding to vote Republican," said poll director Tom Jensen. "We're going to see a lot more competitive races than usual."
Tea Party: What kind of impact?
Tea Partiers took credit for electing Republican U.S. Sen. Scott Brown in Massachusetts, but they could be a wild card in North Carolina.
Groups with Tea Party roots have sprung up across the state. Though fundamentally conservative, many are motivated by a skepticism of status quo politics in both parties. A national Rasmussen poll last month, for example, found that 75 percent of GOP voters believe Congressional Republicans have lost touch with them.
"All we know at this point is that the villagers have pitchforks and torches, and are marching up the hill," Duke University political scientist Mike Munger recently wrote in Reason magazine.
Munger says their march could make 2010 either like 1964, when internal splits doomed the GOP, or like 1994 when conservatives and moderates united to give Republicans a congressional majority.
Corey Thompson of Charlotte, a Tea Partier who plans to run for the county board, says tensions clearly exist.
"Tea Party folks tend to be concerned that Republicans have moved away from their traditional base," he says. "And Republicans are concerned that Tea Party folks may be a little too radical."
Are Scandals trial for Democrats?
How tough has it been for Republicans to make the "culture of corruption" charge stick? Consider this: In May 2007, when former House Speaker Jim Black was facing sentencing on corruption charges, a poll found that half of North Carolinians didn't even know he was a Democrat.
Since then, Black has gone to prison. So have former Reps. Mike Decker and Thomas Wright. Two high-profile Democrats, former Gov. Mike Easley and ex-U.S. Sen. John Edwards, are subjects of federal grand jury probes.
Republicans again are trying to hammer the issue home.
Chris Hayes, senior legislative analyst at the conservative Civitas Institute, says his polls show many people, particularly outside Raleigh and Charlotte, still aren't following the scandals very closely.
Political analyst John Davis of Raleigh says the scandals could depress Democratic turnout, but may not make the impact Republicans hope.
"There's really no empirical evidence from watching campaigns in North Carolina," he says, "that would suggest that if Easley is indicted, it's going to keep a legislator in Spruce Pine or Beulaville from winning their campaign."
Will Court ruling open spigots?
With control of state government, N.C. Democrats long have enjoyed a financial advantage in state campaigns. And so far, the party has outraised its GOP counterpart more than 2-1.
Less clear is the effect of last month's U.S. Supreme Court ruling that opens the door to corporate and labor money coming into states which, like North Carolina, have banned it.
State Elections Director Gary Bartlett says one effect will probably be the end of blackout periods. State law now bans so-called issue advocacy ads 30 days before a primary and 60 days before a general election.
Representatives of business and labor groups say it's too early to tell what the ruling will mean in North Carolina. But Bartlett says it could give outside groups a louder voice in framing campaigns.
"We're going into a new era," he says, "and we're not quite sure how it will play out."
Will the revolving door close?
Since 1974, the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Richard Burr has changed hands every six years. For now, he seems to be riding high in his drive to keep it.
Polls show him with double-digit leads over his best-known Democratic opponents. And new reports showed him with a 13-1 cash advantage heading into the election year.
That almost surely will change. But until May 4, most attention will be on the race to oppose him.
Former state Sen. Cal Cunningham is backed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the White House. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall has won three statewide races.
But new reports showed Kenneth Lewis, a little-known Chapel Hill attorney, with a small fundraising edge over his better-known rivals. To run his campaign Lewis has hired Bruce Clark, the man who engineered the election of Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx. And like Foxx, he starts with an ace in the hole.
According to the state elections board, 41 percent of Democratic voters are, like Lewis, African American. A candidate needs just 40 percent of the vote to win a primary.
"A candidate who is able to excite that community in a primary has a great advantage," says Lewis aide David Mitchell.
Will we see Congressional upsets?
Democratic Rep. Larry Kissell of the 8th District has attracted the biggest field of GOP challengers - including one who has put $550,000 into his own campaign.
But Kissell, whose vote against a Democratic health care bill alienated some in his party, also is expected to face a primary. A poll last month by Public Policy Polling found, however, that just 29 percent of his constituents knew how he voted on health care.
The first-termer could be North Carolina's most vulnerable incumbent. But maybe not the only one:
Republican Rep. Patrick McHenry faces two deep-pocketed primary challengers in the 10th District. After each giving their campaigns $250,000, each has more in the bank than the incumbent.
The 11th District has always been tough for Democrats. But second-term Rep. Heath Shuler has $1.2 million in the bank and no challenger is even close.
NC Republicans Buoyant As Candidate Filing Opens
Rarely have N.C. Republicans seen so much interest in running for office.
Dozens of prospective candidates have come to orientation sessions put on by House Republicans. Interest in congressional and local races also is high.
"You're going to see a huge number of candidates file on the Republican side because they smell blood in the water," says political analyst John Davis of Raleigh.
Filing for offices from the U.S. Senate to county commissioner opens Monday across North Carolina and runs through Feb. 26. The May 4 primaries are less than three months away.
The races take place against backdrops that seem to favor Republicans.
The GOP has enjoyed high-profile successes in Virginia, New Jersey and even Massachusetts. Despite personal appeals from President Barack Obama, voters in each state rejected his candidate.
In North Carolina, which Obama narrowly carried, a survey last month by Raleigh's Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling found only 44 percent of voters like the job he's doing.
The elections also follow the worst budget year and one of the highest tax increases in N.C. history. And they take place as federal grand juries investigate a former Democratic governor and former U.S. senator.
Chris Hayes, a senior analyst with the Civitas Institute, a conservative think tank, says his polls reflect those dynamics.
"You're getting a huge number of Democrats, especially those whose only voting participation was 2008, saying they're not going to vote in 2010," he says. By contrast, enthusiasm among Republicans is "sky high."
"They're chomping at the bit to get out and vote."
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Sources: McClatchy Newspapers, Charlotte Observer, NCGOP, WCNC, Google Maps
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