Mass. Election Has Democrats On Edge
It’s hard for some Democrats to believe that the candidate running to replace Ted Kennedy is being attacked over health care reform — in one of the bluest states in the union, no less.
But Republican Scott Brown has got Democrats nervous — not just for his opponent Martha Coakley but about the fact that a loss in Massachusetts would be a body blow to Democratic reform efforts in Washington.
Republicans are watching public approval of reform continue to tank while their candidates’ poll numbers rise. And they still view the bill’s Medicare cuts, tax increases and lack of transparency as key to a 2010 message that voters should bring GOP checks and balances to a Democratic-run Washington.
Democrats, meanwhile, continue to argue that once the legislating is done, the party will be able to sell reform’s benefits, including coverage for more than 30 million Americans, better prescription drug coverage for seniors and tighter controls on insurance companies.
Brown’s danger to health reform is more than just his messaging — he’s hoping to become the “41st vote” to scuttle a health reform bill in the Senate by denying Democrats their 60-vote majority.
It’s not that simple. Even if he manages to upset Coakley — despite some polls showing her with a double-digit lead — Democrats could drag out seating Brown, thanks to a 15-day waiting period to send results to the secretary of state and, then, no deadline for state officials to formally declare a winner.
And even if Democrats were unable to negotiate a final bill before Brown was seated, they’d have a last resort: Democrats could try to pass the Senate bill through the House with no changes, sending it straight to President Barack Obama’s desk.
But Brown’s threat to health reform is in some ways larger. He’s showing how Republicans can run against reform — something sure to play out in other high-profile campaigns this fall, such as those of Reps. Frank Kratovil Jr. (D-Md.) and John Adler (D-N.J.), along with Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) and Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.).
Voting against the bill may not be enough to inoculate Democrats from attack.
Rep. Walt Minnick (D-Idaho) said he did four town halls over the holiday recess. “That was the consistent theme: strong opposition based on talk radio talking points,” said Minnick, who voted no on the bill. He took straw polls at each event, and found “all of [the] audiences have been opposed to the president’s proposal, save one.”
“Most of my audiences are strongly opposed to it. The administration simply didn’t get through, certainly in more rural areas. The message just didn’t get through because there’s neither an understanding nor support for it in vast swaths of my district. Heck, there’s no support for it in any place.”
Rep. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) also voted no. He said he feels comfortable defending his vote. “I think people have heard what the president has to say and what the political leaders have to say, but it’s up to me as a representative to try and explain what my views are and make the best decision I can,” he said. “I think there’s a lot of confusion about what’s in the bill, and I’m comfortable explaining it.”
Kratovil, too, voted no, but Republican challenger state Sen. Andy Harris is still using it against him, hitting Kravotil on two fronts: perceived dithering and the public option.
“They are frustrated with the congressman that he doesn’t know where he stands on an issue as important as health care,” Harris said. “If the congressman agreed with their philosophy, the congressman would have said months ago, ... ‘I am opposed to it.’”
Kratovil has told media outlets that the public option was not the make-or-break issue for him. That, Harris said, is out of sync with the district.
Kratovil’s main reason for voting against the bill was the cost, said Kevin Lawlor, his campaign spokesman. “It was too expensive overall, and he didn’t believe it was paid for.”
Few in Washington will own health reform as much as Reid, who also has the added problem of the controversy resulting from his remarks on Obama’s race. As Senate majority leader, he was a key architect of reform. And that could be a major liability, as many polls show a majority of Nevadans disapprove of his legislation. Reid’s office did not return a request for comment.
Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston said Republicans’ “goal is to keep Harry Reid’s numbers low, and there’s no better bludgeon than health care reform.”
Indeed, two of Reid’s potential Republican opponents are seizing on the issue as they campaign for the GOP nomination.
Republican challenger Danny Tarkanian said reform has been an important campaign theme recently. He’s advocating traditional GOP prescriptions like allowing consumers to buy insurance across state lines, medical malpractice reform and the elimination of state mandates.
“Reid believes the solution to our health care problems is more government involvement and more spending, and I believe the solution is found in the private sector and through our capitalistic society,” Tarkanian said.
Sue Lowden, another GOP Senate candidate, called Reid’s bill a “total government takeover of our health care system” that was rushed through Congress with no transparency. “It’s a huge public policy bill. It’s so big, and Nevadans don’t want it, overwhelmingly,” she said.
But Ralston said, “It is absolutely devastating and perhaps fatal to his campaign if he doesn’t get a bill” because Reid is running as the candidate who can get things done in Washington for Nevadans.
It’s a theme that Democrats seem to have embraced this cycle — that they must pass reform to fulfill their campaign promises to do the hard work of governing.
“People are licking their chops and are looking for problems. But I’m in the camp that failure is far more cataclysmic than passing legislation,” said Chris Jennings, a Democratic health care consultant who advised President Bill Clinton. “A legislative debate is by definition controversial, and, of course, the filter and the media coverage will be focused on the controversy and the difficulties of getting it passed, which helps play down the focus on the legislation.”
But, Jennings argued, once Democrats pass reform, they will regain their political footing and will have the rest of the year to sell reform’s benefits to the public.
Democrats are resigned to taking what they see as a short-term hit to play for long-term gains. If anything, they see the current political climate as a side effect of not passing reform sooner, a sore point among Democrats who wish Obama had weighed in this summer as he’s doing now.
And Republicans hope that reform’s longer-than-planned face time means the public perception is so bad that Democrats will have little time to change it before November.
Still, Democrats and Republicans concede that by November, reform will likely become only a piece of a much larger battle between the parties over the size and role of government in a time of massive government interventions. Reform will join the stimulus, bank and auto bailouts and the economy as 2010’s signature issues.
And both sides have their messages ready.
“You basically take a 2,000 page bill and take it down to something everybody knows and fears, which is more government intrusion into the health care system,” said Republican health care strategist Phil Blando.
Add in Republican charges that the bill will raise taxes on families, cut Medicare for seniors and all was done in “backroom deals,” and Republican think they have a potent message.
Democrats are countering by trying to frame Republicans as disingenuous unless they call for full repeal should the bill become the law. If Republicans only want to tinker with parts they don’t like, they are no different than Democrats who have pledged to improve the legislation going forward. Of course, calling for a full repeal opens Republicans to attack for wanting to roll back the bill’s coverage expansions and consumer friendly provisions.
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Sources: Politico, Fox News, Youtube, Google Maps
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