(Creigh Deeds tries -- and fails -- to thread the needle on his plans to raise taxes. He says he will not raise "general fund" taxes -- but is forced to admit that gasoline taxes go into the Transportation Trust Fund. Deeds will raise taxes.)
(Democrat Creigh Deeds has made it clear that he will raise gas taxes.)
(Sheila Crump Johnson, Democrat, Co-founder of Black Entertainment Television, local Middleburg Business owner, Noted philanthropist and Entrepreneur, endorsed Republican Bob McDonnell in his campaign for governor.)
GOP has one eye on Va. campaign, one on the future
On Monday, it was former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. On Wednesday, it was former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani. And Saturday, it'll be Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour.
Almost all of the Republicans considered top candidates for a 2012 presidential run have made stops this fall in Virginia, where they're hoping to help Robert F. McDonnell take the governor's mansion and discover a winning strategy for a party that lost Congress and the White House in the past two national elections.
As Republicans grasp for a strategy that will lead them back to power, they said that what they see in McDonnell -- a social conservative who has taken a commanding lead in opinion polls by running as a moderate problem-solver -- offers some promise that their party can succeed in this crucial swing state and beyond.
"Bob McDonnell is spending his time on issues that matter to voters, and that's always the right strategy," Barbour said in an interview before visiting the state. "He is concentrating on what people are talking about right now: jobs, the economy, spending and taxes."
Huckabee said at a news conference Monday that McDonnell is "representing core principals that people recognize as common sense. . . . I don't believe it's a matter of people saying: 'Oh, we want Republicans again.' They want responsibility and accountability."
The possible presidential hopefuls said they were particularly heartened that Virginians seemed to be responding to a message of slowing government spending, an issue they see as being to their advantage so long as President Obama and the Democratic Congress continue to push stimulus packages, health-care reform and other expensive proposals.
"I think there is a growing crescendo of support for holding down the level of government spending, keeping taxes down," Romney said at a news conference with McDonnell in Richmond. "These are Republican values that are gaining ascendancy."
The focus on kitchen table issues is a change from the approach that Huckabee, Romney and others took when they ran for president in 2008. They talked about the economy and "the war on terror," but Huckabee and Giuliani also focused heavily on immigration. And Romney talked about strengthening America's families through his opposition to abortion and his support of conservative judges.
Vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin heightened the party's identification with divisive social issues by emphasizing her opposition to abortion and employing rhetoric about a "real America."
McDonnell built his reputation in large part by staking out conservative stances on many of the same issues, but he has mostly avoided them on the campaign trail.
Huckabee said the trust that McDonnell enjoys among the party's conservative base allows for a message that speaks to moderates and independents. That combination, he said, is the key for McDonnell and the party.
"Bob McDonnell doesn't have to convince anybody of his bona fides," Huckabee said the day before a Newport News fundraiser for McDonnell. "Everybody knows Bob McDonnell is as solid as he can be on those issues."
Whether the McDonnell campaign emerges as a model for the Republican Party will depend in part on what happens on Election Day, when there will also be elections for governor in New Jersey and for a U.S. House seat representing Upstate New York. The split within the GOP is most evident in the New York race, where the party's establishment supports a moderate and conservatives back a third-party candidate, Doug Hoffman, who has been rapidly climbing in the polls.
If Hoffman wins that race, many conservatives are likely to become emboldened and see a shift to the right as the path back to power, no matter what happens to McDonnell. But if Democrats win there and in New Jersey and McDonnell prevails, then the Virginians' approach will probably be championed by party leaders.
Barbour, who serves as the chairman of the Republican Governors Association and will attend a trio of campaign stops with McDonnell on Saturday, said GOP candidates running for governor in 36 states next year will closely examine McDonnell's strategy. If he wins, GOP consultants say, McDonnell will be invited to explain his strategy on Capitol Hill and in states across the nation.
As one of two states with a governor's race in the year after a presidential election -- and the only one that never has an incumbent in the running -- Virginia attracts prominent politicians and fuels speculation about who might make a bid for the White House. Virtually every possible Republican presidential hopeful has spent time with McDonnell in the past year, attending rallies, holding news conferences and headlining fundraisers that have brought in millions of dollars. Many of them have been back multiple times.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.), House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (Ohio) and former senator and presidential candidate Fred Thompson (Tenn.) have all been to Virginia.
But McDonnell turned away help from one conservative figure: Palin. McDonnell repeatedly and personally asked Palin for help this summer. But by late August, he had rejected her offers of assistance, according to Palin adviser Meg Stapleton, as he tried to appeal to the middle-class swing voters that Republicans have been unable to attract in recent years.
The new GOP model
The Republican Party has no national leaders. Its stand ing with voters is at an all- time low. It battens itself on an ideological purity that turns off the center and can't appeal to an increasingly suburban and diverse electorate. If it is not fated to go the way of the Federalists or the Whigs, it is certainly a spent force.
This is the rote obituary for the GOP that the left can't resist. It is all the more alluring for its elements of truth: A party that holds neither the presidency, the House nor the Senate won't be stacked with national leaders. In polls, the GOP is still suffering from its Bush-DeLay hangover.
Yet, in Virginia this year, this death notice has been shown to be both dated and premature. It foolishly extrapolates from political conditions a year ago that have already drastically changed and assumes that Republican candidates will never adjust to new circumstances. Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell has run a model campaign for the Obama era, energizing the right and winning the center in a tour de force directly on President Barack Obama's doorstep.
The battle over how to interpret the imminent defeat of the Democrat in the race, Creigh Deeds, has already begun. Democrats want to shrug it off as not surprising in essentially a red state, home to the former capital of the Confederacy.
Except Virginia has been trending blue. Obama won it 53-47. Since 1997, The Washington Post notes, a million more people live in the state, most of them minorities and many in the affluent northern suburbs. Democrats hold both US Senate seats; they won a majority in the state Senate in 2007; and they picked up three US House seats in 2008. Virginia is a swing state, even if Democrats don't like the way it's now swinging.
McDonnell is benefiting from some factors outside his control. Since 1977, Virginia has always elected governors from the opposite party as the president. And the Deeds campaign has often matched strategic purposelessness to tactical incompetence. McDonnell, however, has mostly made his own good fortune.
The White House contends Deeds fumbled badly by not basking enough in the reflected brilliance of Barack Obama. It fails to understand the reason he didn't. The cataract of spending at the federal level has turned off independents and created a political opening for limited-government conservatism that hasn't existed since Bill Clinton won the government shutdown fights of the mid-'90s. McDonnell has effectively hit Deeds on Obama-Pelosi issues that are unpopular in Virginia -- deficit spending, card check, cap-and-trade and the ban on offshore drilling.
While tough on Deeds, McDonnell has stayed upbeat, both substantively and in tone. He has unleashed a flurry of policy proposals. Focusing on the pocketbook issues of jobs, transportation and education, his ideas emphasize regulatory reform, competition and private-public partnerships. They are conservative but pragmatic, meant to appeal to nonideological voters. Polls have McDonnell beating Deeds on taxes, economic development, education, transportation and even "issues of special concern to women."
A few weeks ago, that last datum would have been a shocker. When a 20-year old graduate thesis McDonnell had written at Pat Robertson's university came to light, Deeds fastened for weeks on its inflammatory language. He managed only to convince voters he was running an issueless, negative campaign. Deeds narrowly leads on the issue of abortion. But guess what? People care about jobs more.
McDonnell's comportment has perfectly complemented his campaign -- relentlessly cheerful and moderate in demeanor. He's been gracious about Obama personally, even while excoriating him on issues. When a GOP candidate for the House of Delegates unleashed lunatic comments about resorting to "the bullet box" if Obama can't be stopped at the ballot box, McDonnell instantly rebuked her.
After Obama's sweep last year, liberals have talked as if Republicans will never win elections again. They will, and Bob McDonnell shows how.
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Sources: Washington Post, MSNBC, NY Post, Real Clear Politics, Wikipedia, Google Maps
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