NRCC vs Michael Steele: "GOP Not Ready To Lead"

NRCC Pushes Back Against Steele Over 2010 Pessimism, GOP Operatives Furious


Republican operatives are privately furious with RNC Chairman Michael Steele for predicting on Monday night that the GOP will not take over the House of Representatives in 2010.

One strategist called the comment "Stupid," arguing that it will put the party in a bind when it comes to candidate recruitment and generally lower expectations and excitement over the 2010 elections. Others, who refused to go on the record, lamented the inevitable follow-up questions that would be asked to Republicans, such as: do you agree with the sentiments of the RNC Chairman?

And, sure enough, on Tuesday, the National Congressional Campaign Committee released a statement in which it basically slapped down Steele for his electoral prognostication.

"The NRCC's goal -- as the campaign arm of the House Republican Conference -- has always been to recapture the majority in 2010," said Ken Spain, press secretary for the committee. "Independent political analysts and even liberal columnists have stated that Republicans have a very real shot at taking back the majority in 2010. Make no mistake about it, we are playing to win."

It is extremely rare to see two campaign committees on such different pages when it comes to messaging. Steele was able to survive a rocky start to his tenure at the RNC. But the grumbling never fully died down -- and his remarks on Sean Hannity's radio show Monday night have only exacerbated the situation.

"I can't give a number [of seats the GOP will win] yet, because like I said, we're just now beginning to look at the races," Steele said. Asked if Republicans will take back the House, he confessed: "Not this year."

"I don't know all the candidates yet," Steele added. "We still have some vacancies that need to get filled, but then the question we need to ask ourselves is: 'If we do that, are we ready?'"


Sources: Huffington Post, Fox News, Sean Hannity Show, NRCC, TPM, Youtube

George W. Bush: Dems 2010 Secret Weapon

2010 Campaign Preview: Democrats To Say GOP Still Party Of Bush



Last week TPMDC explored the conditions that led to the Republican takeover of the House in 1994 and point-by-point detailed why a similar rout in 2010 is unlikely despite a tough political climate.

Today, Rep. Chris Van Hollen who is in charge of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, dismissed potential signs of trouble but stayed on his message that no matter what happens next year members won't be caught unprepared.

He said as confetti was still falling last fall when Barack Obama won the presidency he was warning members they faced a tough mid-year cycle.

"This is not going to be 1994 all over again," Van Hollen told reporters at a briefing at the DNC. "The fundamentals are very different today."

Their strategy: GOP just wants to rewind the clock to Bush era.





"The Republican Party in Washington today is no different than the Republican party that ran the Congress before," Van Hollen said.

It's a message they will push especially in districts where there are repeat Republican candidates

Democrats think the economy will actually work to their advantage - if there is an uptick, they can say they stepped in to save it from a deeper dive and say Republicans voted 'No' on every piece of legislation that helped to turn it around.

"The big question will be who was on your side during this very difficult period of time," he said.

But if it doesn't get better?

Then there's real danger, Democrats say privately.

But to give a sense of how much more difficult the landscape is this time around, Van Hollen detailed that 42 members are in their "Frontline" program of toughest battlegrounds, a number that has increased as they scooped up GOP seats over the last few years.

"We are living with the results of our own successes," he said.

That gives them a smaller playing field to go on offense.

As we have reported, Van Hollen said the Democratic message next year will be deficit reduction, from President Obama's State of the Union address on down to the rank-and-file.

Van Hollen was pressed on whether a frustrated base of liberal Democrats would stay home from the polls next year, and he said that while many have forgotten about children's health care, the fair pay act and education reform, they are "all measures we could not get passed" under then-President George W. Bush.

Van Hollen said members who benefited from record turnout in 2008 "will have to be very clear that the future success of the Obama agenda is at stake and even though president is not on the ballot that everyone who supported the president in the last election has to get out and support candidates [to boost] the president's agenda."

He said members must hold their voters plus the independents who voted for Sen. John McCain and a Democratic member of Congress.

Van Hollen also said fears of retirement floods are overstated, and though he thinks it is possible there will be more announced soon, "we absolutely do not expect a large surge in the order of 1994."

Republicans are gloating about their position in 2010, and Democratic members are prepared for "a challenging year."

Based on history, members knew they should "fasten their seatbelts and get ready from the start," he said.

The health care news from the briefing is here.





Could It Happen Again? GOP Aims For 2010 To Be '94 Repeat


The Republicans are planning to fight furiously to try and recapture control of the House of Representatives in 2010, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who helped orchestrate the Republican revolution 15 years ago, thinks it's possible for a repeat.

"I think you could easily have a bigger backlash in 2010 than we had in 1994," Gingrich (R-GA) told Newsmax TV recently.

Looking at generic polls of party preference, Republicans like what they see, and most Democrats acknowledge they will lose seats next fall.

But a Republican House takeover? Pretty unlikely it seems, as TPMDC explored the question by talking to political consultants and campaign hands to see what conditions existed in 1994 and whether they exist now.

Timing is everything
Here's where it's similar - you have a Democratic president who will be completing his second year in office when voters head to the ballot box next November to choose all 435 members of Congress.

President Clinton was a major factor in the Republicans' 1994 victory, when the party won 54 seats and kept control for more than a decade. President Obama's approval ratings have dropped significantly, but he won a higher percentage of the popular vote than Clinton.

The base!
But - Obama's supporters on the left have grown frustrated with him as he's taken the center approach on military issues and domestic priorities. As we've seen in some recent elections, the base, already worn out from a long 2008 political season, stayed home. That is the biggest thing Democrats have to worry about next year.

Safe seats
The Democrats have a 258-177 advantage in the House now, having won the chamber back in 2006 with a 30-seat victory and gaining more seats last year.

The 1994 revolution came about in part because there were so many Democrats retiring in districts that had become redder and redder over the years.

Redistricting also made Republican districts more so, and carved out Democratic voters for the Democratic districts. So the number of swing districts has shrunk considerably over the years.

Primed
The GOP is excited, and feel they have a movement bolstering their charge against Obama and Congressional leadership as big government big spenders.

But key Democrats believe their members will not be caught flat-footed. Everyone is worried about losing seats, so they will fight harder. Democrats who were shocked by losing power in 1994 won't make the same mistake this time around by being unprepared.

The DCCC has been preparing since January for the tough next cycle.

For that reason, Democrats believe their candidates are top-tier this time around. They also are aggressively going after GOP seats, which they didn't do in 1994, and because of gains in recent years aren't dependent on one region as they once were.

Ideas
Central to the Republican win in 1994 was the Contract with America, a simple list of 10 bills they were partially able to implement after taking over. Democrats tried their own plan called Six for 06, some which also went into effect the year they took control.

But the Republicans so far haven't presented big new ideas, and some of their plans have been debunked or mocked for lack of specificity. The Democrats are starting to get traction with the "party of no" accusations.

Economy
The biggest thing that Democrats have to worry about is the economy and unemployment. If things don't improve by next summer, they will lose a lot more seats than it stands today.

NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay tells TPMDC they are aiming to put as many seats in play as possible:

"The year we've always been focused on is 2010, and we took many steps this year recruit strong candidates and put as many seats in play as possible for next year's election. Democrats, meanwhile, seem willing to lose seats in order to pass their reckless agenda. The only question is how many of their Members are going to walk the plank or choose to retire with their heads held high."

Finally, Senate Democrats actually stand a chance of gaining seats as a handful of Republican retirements give them new pickup opportunities.

Though they have their own internal struggles, Democrats also see a silver lining in the conservative tea party war within the Republican party. Sen. Jim DeMint's group is picking out candidates that pass his test while Erick Erickson says conservatives should weed out the "establishment" Republicans.

The Democrats see what happened in New York's 23rd Congressional district last month as a potential way they can exploit Republican divisions - national Republicans backed the tea party candidate and the party nominee dropped out, allowing a Democrat to win the seat for the first time since the civil war.

Former George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove talked a bit about 2010 as it relates to the 2012 candidates on Fox earlier today, and had a telling nugget about the direction of the party going forward.

"The tea party movement is important less because of its involvement in political campaigns and more about what it doing to shape people's attitudes about where our country is growing and let the political fallout occur as a natural result of that," he said.

Late Update:

Ryan Rudominer of the DCCC said anyone who thinks Republicans can win control is in "la-la land."

He added:

"Though we face an historic headwind, as the special election in NY-23 made clear, the DCCC knows how to win tough elections and is staying on offense this cycle putting 20 Republicans seats in play and ensuring our members and candidates have the resources to get their message out. In stark contrast, the NRCC lost a special election last month, a seat that had been Republican since the 1800s, spent nearly a million dollars on a candidate who dropped out and fueled a Republican Civil War sweeping the country in the process."



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Sources: TPM, Politico, Youtube, Google Maps

Scozzafava Suspends Campaign, Hoffman Gains Supporters...NY-23 Race

(G.O.P. Nominee for the NY-23 Race drops out.)

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Fred Thompson's commercial for Douglas Hoffman. FredPAC Supporters







Base sends GOP warning shot in NY-23


Republican Dede Scozzafava’s decision Saturday to drop out of the New York special congressional election gave conservatives a big win, but may present a challenge for Republicans heading into next year's mid-term elections.

The long-term implications from Scozzafava’s Halloween surprise will depend on what lessons Republicans take from the race, where Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman now seems poised to consolidate center-right support and win the seat previously held by Republican John McHugh, who resigned to become President Obama’s Secretary of the Army.

The message from national and New York conservatives is unambiguous, though: This was an angry, energized base telling the national party that an anything-for-a-majority approach by GOP leaders is unacceptable. They are serious and deeply concerned about what's going on in Washington.

While the Empire State's unique ballot rules and a Republican candidate to the left of the GOP mainstream helped open the door for Hoffman’s unlikely run, the national effect of this race may be to embolden more conservatives to take on party establishment-approved candidates who don't toe the idelogical line.

At issue is whether the GOP next year will be able to channel the electricity now coursing through the conservative grassroots to fuel Republican candidates or if the fervor that’s propelled Hoffman to the precipice of victory in a district he doesn’t even live in will continue to divide the party’s pragmatic and right wings.

“Over the long term, if we keep dividing up it may cost us,” said former Rep. Tom Davis, a Virginia moderate who helped build the GOP House majority as NRCC chairman. “You’ve got to stay under one tent and that’s got to mean accommodations on both sides.”

Former New York Rep. Tom Reynolds, also a previous NRCC Chairman, said that, inevitably, the party would need to run moderate contenders if it wanted to regain the majority.

“The question is, what is the future for moderates? We will have a future.”

“We can play checkmate forever and moderates can do next what conservatives did [to Scozzafava],” Davis added. “So this is something that the party is going to have to manage, keeping everybody under the same tent. These groups need each other.”

Davis and other Republicans said one way to prevent future splits within the party is to ensure that there is a fair and open nominating process in which voters can determine which GOP candidate they prefer.

“The age of party leaders picking people is over,” wrote former House Speaker and Scozzafava supporter Newt Gingrich in an email to POLITICO, alluding to Scozzafava’s having received the nomination by a vote of county party committee chairman.

Karl Rove said the local process in which the Republican was chosen and New York’s uniquely powerful Conservative Party made for an aberrant set of circumstances that would not likely be repeated around the country.

“When 11 people in a backroom pick among nine candidates, there are going to be hard feelings,” Rove said in a telephone interview, referring to the county chairs who tapped Scozzafava. “Most states don’t have third-parties as readily available and no other state has as cohesive and persistent a third party as the Conservative Party in New York.”

Rove noted that this is in part because in New York, ballots can be cast on third-party lines for major-party candidates who are also co-nominated by the smaller parties.

But other conservatives say the problem in both the New York contest and hampering Republicans more broadly is the tendency of GOP establishment leaders in Washington to get behind moderate candidates out of fear a purist conservative can’t win a general election.

"Hmmm, I thought the Era of Reagan was over?” wrote Rush Limbaugh in an email to POLITICO. “Who was it that said that? Oh yeah, the smart people on our side who told us the only way we could win was with moderate-liberal candidates like Scozzafava.”

Erick Erickson, who runs the popular conservative blog RedState, predicted future family fights and put the blame squarely at the feet of national party leaders, who he noted spent nearly $1 million to bolster a candidate who quit before Election Day.

“Thanks to Pete Sessions, Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, not Doug Hoffman, there is a new inspiration for a third-party movement to challenge the GOP – a movement that will only help Democrats,” Erickson wrote Saturday. “Good men in the GOP are now going to be challenged in primaries because of the ill-will the NRCC has generated in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.”

Democrats, while acknowledging the difficulty they’d now have in picking up the New York seat on Tuesday, were quick to claim that Scozzafava’s decision proved that the GOP is split and leaderless.

“During August, Republicans thought they’d be able to harness the energy of the far-right, but the opposite has happened,” DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen told POLITICO in a phone interview. “The far-right, tea-bag party is leading there Republican Party around by the nose.”

Van Hollen cited the New York race as “exhibit A” that the GOP has been taken over by the right-wing.

“The Republican candidate was effectively forced out of the race by a third-party candidate funded by the far-right,” he said, adding: “If we see this same phenomenon play out then it certainly could help Democratic candidates next year because we’d be facing a much more divided opposition.”

Democrats also moved Saturday to cast Scozzafava’s move as a sign that centrists had no place in the GOP.

“The true leaders of the Republican Party like Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck and Tim Pawlenty have said to all moderates and independents: ‘When it comes to being part of our party you need not apply,’” said DNC communications director Brad Woodhouse, citing individuals who got behind Hoffman.

Another top Democratic strategist said, “It's clear that even the GOP conference isn't united around winning, there are ideological breaks,” noting that the NRCC had tapped about a quarter of their cash in the bank for a candidate who didn’t even have endorsements from a chunk of the House GOP.

“The Republicans now have to deal with an empowered, emboldened, and well-funded far-right,” said this Democrat.

Asked if they were worried about what the New York example may mean for other primaries next year, a House GOP Leadership aide involved in the special election said: “Is there concern? There is always concern.”

But, this official said, the party had been careful to select conservative contenders in most cases.

“Of our 45 candidates, I would note that most are conservatives.”

And Rove made the case that the sort of tea-party activists who flocked to New York’s sprawling North Country to aid Hoffman are not composed of right-wingers who spend their days reading conservative blogs and closely following politics.

“They’re really wired up right now about deficits, spending and the expansion of government,” he said. “A great many may identify as conservatives, but they don’t fit the traditional model. The thing that makes them unpredictable is that they’re mostly fresh actors on the scene.”

So, Rove said, the GOP must find “candidates who can channel anti-Obama, anti-Washington sentiment in constructive ways.”

He suggested having to choose between ideological purity and projecting a welcoming image to independents represented a false choice.

Rove cited Virginia Republican gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell, who enjoys a commanding lead in the polls in a state Obama captured last year, as the type of candidate who has been able to tap into the populist frustrations on the right and center-right without alienating the sort of pivotal moderates who can often swing elections.

“He’s a conservative but has offered a positive, optimistic vision of small government,” Rove said. “And he has come across with a pleasing, moderate demeanor.”

Even as they take stock of what Scozzafava’s withdrawal means, most Republicans are seeing only upside in what seems likely to happen next week in the three closely-watched off-year races, all in localities that Obama won last year, Virginia, New Jersey and New York-23.

“The big story Tuesday will be the collapse of the Democratic brand in three states as Democratic nominees run ten to twenty points behind Obama’s vote a year ago,” wrote Gingrich, who came under a wave of criticism for his support of Scozzafava.

But even as they start to savor what could be a clean sweep, Republicans also must be mindful of what a Hoffman win could set off.

“I think it will empower tea party activists” to look for moderate scalps in other districts,” fretted one senior GOP strategist with national campaign experience. “The question is, Will we go through a period in the party where a great purge begins?” this strategist asked. “If it spreads into that, this will be a very bad day.”

Davis said the party was now confronted with what he termed “a good problem to have.”

“We need to capture this lightning in a bottle,” he said of the conservative energy. “They’re now the energy base of the party. But you can’t let them run the show or you’re going to lose all the independents.”




Scozzafava bows out of NY-23 race


Republican Dede Scozzafava announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign in the Nov. 3 House special election in New York, a dramatic development that increases the GOP's chances of winning the contentious and closely-watched race.

"In recent days, polls have indicated that my chances of winning this election are not as strong as we would like them to be. The reality that I've come to accept is that in today's political arena, you must be able to back up your message with money—and as I've been outspent on both sides, I've been unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record,” she said in a statement.

“It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican.”

Her decision came as a Siena Research Institute poll released Saturday confirmed that her support has all but collapsed over the last month. In her statement, Scozzafava acknowledged that while her name will continue to appear on the ballot, “victory is unlikely.”

The Siena poll conducted Oct. 27-29, in line with other recent polls, showed Democrat Bill Owens holding a razor-thin lead over Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, 36 percent to 35 percent.

Scozzafava trailed far behind at 20 percent, with 9 percent of voters still undecided.

The National Republican Congressional Committee will now be throwing its support to Hoffman, after endorsing Scozzafava and deriding the Conservative Party candidate in statements throughout much of the race.

The fortunes of Scozzafava and Hoffman had nearly flipped over the last month as national attention focused on the upstate New York race, which has become a rallying point for grassroots conservatives.

Conservatives have asserted that Scozzafava, a GOP establishment-backed state assemblywoman who supports abortion rights and gay marriage, is far too liberal for them to support and numerous prominent GOP figures have recently endorsed Hoffman.

Scozzafava, who in the beginning of the month was the frontrunner with a 7-point lead over Owens in an Oct. 1 Siena poll, saw her support crater while Hoffman surged from a distant third place to a virtual tie in the polls with Owens.

With Scozzafava slipping in the polls and her candidacy dividing the GOP, national Republicans began hedging their bets on her campaign and have recently signaled that they would no longer actively resist Hoffman’s candidacy.

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (R-Texas) told POLITICO Thursday that he would welcome Hoffman “with open arms.” On Friday, Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele told POLITICO that a Hoffman victory is essentially a Republican Party victory.

“You’ve got two Republicans running in that race. My upside is that one of them will likely win,” Steele said. “We want to be supporting the one that wins.”

“He would be very welcome, with open arms,” Sessions told POLITICO in an interview off the House floor.

The decision to suspend her campaign is a boost for Hoffman, who already had the support of 50 percent of GOP voters, according to a newly-released Siena poll, and is now well-positioned to win over the 25 percent of Republicans who had been sticking with Scozzafava.

Republicans applauded Scozzafava’s decision Saturday.

“Dede Scozzafava has placed her Party and her principles over politics and position for years,” said New York GOP chairman Ed Cox in a statement. “For those who know her, her actions today come as no surprise because they show real leadership. It is testament to her character and strength under difficult circumstances.”

Susan B. Anthony List President Marjorie Dannenfelser, whose group has organized an independent pro-Hoffman grassroots ground program and spent over $125,000 in the race said, "Dede Scozzafava’s courage and strength allowed her to make the choice to let the strongest candidate in her party move forward, and to serve the voters of the 23rd District.''

The NRCC released a joint statement from House Republican Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), House Republican Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and Sessions, indicating that the party will now throw its support behind Hoffman.

"As the House stands on the cusp of the forthcoming vote on a trillion-dollar healthcare reform measure, it is vital that we unify behind a candidate that will support reining in massive government spending and work with Republicans in Congress to restore fiscal sanity and propose thoughtful measures to get our nation’s economy on the right track," the statement read. “With Assemblywoman Scozzafava suspending her campaign, we urge voters to support Doug Hoffman’s candidacy in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

“We look forward to welcoming Doug Hoffman into the House Republican Conference as we work together for the good of our nation.”

One Republican strategist familiar with the race said Scozzafava’s departure from the race significantly increased the GOP’s chances of holding the seat left vacant by the resignation of GOP Rep. John McHugh.

“Republicans and Independents will now be able to unite behind one candidacy. Dede's last base of support was among Republican loyalists. They likely overwhelmingly switch to Hoffman,” the strategist said. “As a practical matter, this lets the GOTV operations of two campaigns merge into one - makes a huge mechanical difference in a special election.”

Hoffman echoed that sentiment in a statement Saturday.

“This morning’s events prove what we have said for the last week; this campaign is a horserace between me and Nancy Pelosi’s handpicked candidate, Bill Owens. At this moment, the Democratic Party, the Working Families Party, ACORN, Big Labor and pro-abortion groups are flooding the district with troops and they are flooding the airwaves with a million dollars worth of negative ads. They are throwing mud; they are trying to stop me,” he said. “It’s time for us to send a message to Washington—we’re sick and tired of big-spending, high-taxing, career politicians and by voting for me on Tuesday you will send that message loud and clear.”

Recognizing that a two-candidate race increased the chances that Republicans would hold on to the seat, a senior Democrat said the party will work to get Scozzafava to endorse Owens in an attempt to pick up some of her moderate supporters.

"If we don't get her on board we lose," said the Democrat.

Another senior Democrat said it the situation is still too fluid to come to any conclusions.

"Unpredictable this late – she's a very well known elected official and she remains on the ballot so she'll likely pull some votes but it's hard to say how many," the official said.



A profile in courage, it isn't - GOP latecomers hop on Hoffman bandwagon

As conservative activists scored a political scalp, mainstream Republicans wasted no time in grasping at the coat tails of Conservative Doug Hoffman.

The much-watched off-year special election in upstate New York's 23rd Congressional District that had Republicans scrambling to pick the right side turned into a stampede rightward Saturday, as stragglers rushed to endorse Hoffman after Republican Dede Scozzafava suspended a campaign that she appeared to have little chance of winning.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who’d previously warned that backing Hoffman in the NY-23 House race amounted to a “purge” of the GOP, told POLITICO Saturday morning that he was now endorsing the conservative, "and believe[s] everyone who wants to create jobs with lower taxes and to control spending and deficits should vote for Hoffman Tuesday."

The National Republican Congressional Committee, which had slammed the Conservative contender in a seemingly endless series of press releases, declared that they too now “look forward to welcoming Doug Hoffman into the House Republican Conference as we work together for the good of our nation.”

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, who said in recent weeks that he was standing by Scozzafava, announced that “effective immediately, the RNC will endorse and support the conservative candidate in the race, Doug Hoffman,” and that he was re-gearing the party apparatus to boost Hoffman in the final days of the contest.

All three statements came within an hour of Scozzafava’s announcement.

Former Arkansas gov. and 2012 GOP hopeful Mike Huckabee — who alienated many conservative backers of his 2008 White House bid by conspicuously declining to throw his support behind Hoffman — followed with a muted statement, written in the third person and signed Huck PAC: "We commend Dede Scozzafava for stepping aside and in light of her very unselfish announcement, we join the RNC and other Republicans in urging support for Doug Hoffman."

Saturday’s rush caps a week of late-in-the-race Hoffman endorsements from establishment Republicans seizing the chance to score points with conservative purists, and back a winner at the same time.

While Hoffman’s early supporters cast their endorsements as a decision to place principle above party, for many – especially those seeking higher office – the conservative vs. moderate proxy battle provided a low-risk opportunity to back a candidate surging in the polls while at the same time banking capital with right-wingers.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, facing a heated challenge from Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, declared in an e-mail to his supporters this week, “Electing Doug Hoffman will send a clear message that cannot be denied: conservatives must stand on principle.”

Oklahoma Rep. Mary Fallin, competing for the GOP nod in her run for governor, wrote Hoffman this week that his campaign, “has reminded Americans everywhere that principles come before party affiliation.”

In his Hoffman endorsement, Kansas Rep. Todd Tiahrt, engaged in a heated Senate GOP primary against fellow Rep. Jerry Moran, announced, “The Republican Party is either going to return to the party of fiscal responsibility and consistent conservative principles as it was under Ronald Reagan or it will continue down the path of ‘sporadic moderation.’”

Not to be outdone, Moran gave Hoffman his seal of approval a day later.

“It’s all about self-interest in most cases,” explained University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. “NY-23 has become a powerful symbol for the right, and any candidate who is trying to stay out is finding neutrality to be as difficult as nation-states did in World War II.”

Sabato compared the party’s backlash to its own nominee to the early 1990s response to David Duke’s runs, when Republicans in Louisiana and nationally turned their back on the white supremacist.

“This is the most remarkable aspect of the entire contest,” Sabato said. “There is a national footrace by elected Republican officials and candidates to abandon the official GOP congressional nominee.”

“Everyone is trying to use their endorsements for political purposes,” added Carl Forti, a veteran GOP operative who has upstate New York ties. “It’s like, who’s going to be the last guy to the party?”

As polls showed Hoffman pulling ahead and Scozzafava at best a spoiler, latecomers raced to latch on to the new frontrunner's coattails. Former New York Governor George Pataki, a moderate Republican rumored to be considering a senate run next year, announced his support in a tepid statement on Friday, less than 24 hours before Hoffman cleared the right side of the field.

Former congressman and GOP gubernatorial hopeful Rick Lazio, who’s best known for his spectacularly botched 2001 senate run against Hillary Clinton, joined the Hoffman camp after the question was resolved – about an hour after Scozzafava announced she was suspending her campaign.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who irked conservatives earlier this month, when he admitted he hadn’t been following the New York race, reversed course earlier this week, saying Hoffman “understands the federal government needs to quit spending so much, will vote against tax increases, and protect key values like the right to vote in private in union elections.”

Also belatedly picking a side this past week were two House Republicans facing primaries from the right and looking to cover that flank: Missouri Rep. Todd Akin and Indiana Rep. Mark Souder.

“I realize that, to capture the majority in Congress, not all Republicans can be as conservative as I am,” said Souder, who is facing a challenge from a conservative, tea party-inspired opponent.

But, Souder said, “Not all Republicans in Congress feel power is more important than basic principles.”

“They’re trying to brand themselves nationally and ingratiate themselves with that wing of the party,” said Tom Davis, a former chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

“It’s not brave politics,” one former New York GOP leader said this week. “It makes for an easy call for politicians to jump on the conservative nominee.”

New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, a moderate Republican who is running for Senate and who is facing the prospect of a challenge from the right, also eventually endorsed Hoffman, saying Friday that, “we must have pro-growth economic policies that will create jobs."

Even as their campaign encountered strong resistance from conservatives, Scozzafava allies say they were taken aback by the hemorrhaging of GOP establishment support to Hoffman.

“It’s almost like we have two parties now. Is the NRCC going to be relevant in the future?” one person close to the Scozzafava campaign remarked late this week. “This is the strangest thing I have ever seen.”

“I don’t know what to make of this thing, to be honest. There are so many angles to this thing. It’s wild.”

But as Republicans broke ranks to back Hoffman, there is significant concern within the party leadership over the precedent it sets for potential disunity within GOP in the future.

“If there is anything to be lost, it would be within the party structure,” said Forti. “This is setting a precedent for the party for the future which will allow the party to be torn apart.”

“It is every man for themselves,” lamented another Republican operative. “There is clearly no cohesion.”



Where Do Scozzafava's Voters Go?

Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal flags a previously unreported crosstab from the Siena Research Institute survey: 64 percent of Scozzafava voters in the survey identified as Republicans, while only 19 percent identified with the Democratic party.

As Blumenthal notes, that makes it awfully tough for Owens to pick up much support in the aftermath of Scozzafava's campaign suspension. The Republicans who stuck with Scozzafava in the Siena survey fit into three rough categories: 1) Watertown-area voters who she’s represented in the state Assembly and were with her the whole way; 2) party-line voters who stuck with her out of devotion to the GOP; 3) true Rockefeller Republicans who blanche at Hoffman’s conservatism.

Of those three categories, Owens is unlikely to make inroads with the first two groups. His only hope is to peel off the moderates who view Hoffman as too conservative – and it seems like they’re not thrilled with Democrat Bill Owens, either. The Siena poll showed Owens viewed as unfavorably among Scozzafava supporters (50 percent unfavorable) as Hoffman was (57 percent unfavorable).

So with Republicans now rallying around Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman, and the vast majority of Scozzafava backers associating themselves with the GOP, it’s a challenging road to victory for Owens.



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Sources: Politico, MSNBC, National Journal, Pollster.com, Wikipedia, Youtube, Google Maps