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Base sends GOP warning shot in NY-23
Republican Dede Scozzafava’s decision Saturday to drop out of the New York special congressional election gave conservatives a big win, but may present a challenge for Republicans heading into next year's mid-term elections.
The long-term implications from Scozzafava’s Halloween surprise will depend on what lessons Republicans take from the race, where Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman now seems poised to consolidate center-right support and win the seat previously held by Republican John McHugh, who resigned to become President Obama’s Secretary of the Army.
The message from national and New York conservatives is unambiguous, though: This was an angry, energized base telling the national party that an anything-for-a-majority approach by GOP leaders is unacceptable. They are serious and deeply concerned about what's going on in Washington.
While the Empire State's unique ballot rules and a Republican candidate to the left of the GOP mainstream helped open the door for Hoffman’s unlikely run, the national effect of this race may be to embolden more conservatives to take on party establishment-approved candidates who don't toe the idelogical line.
At issue is whether the GOP next year will be able to channel the electricity now coursing through the conservative grassroots to fuel Republican candidates or if the fervor that’s propelled Hoffman to the precipice of victory in a district he doesn’t even live in will continue to divide the party’s pragmatic and right wings.
“Over the long term, if we keep dividing up it may cost us,” said former Rep. Tom Davis, a Virginia moderate who helped build the GOP House majority as NRCC chairman. “You’ve got to stay under one tent and that’s got to mean accommodations on both sides.”
Former New York Rep. Tom Reynolds, also a previous NRCC Chairman, said that, inevitably, the party would need to run moderate contenders if it wanted to regain the majority.
“The question is, what is the future for moderates? We will have a future.”
“We can play checkmate forever and moderates can do next what conservatives did [to Scozzafava],” Davis added. “So this is something that the party is going to have to manage, keeping everybody under the same tent. These groups need each other.”
Davis and other Republicans said one way to prevent future splits within the party is to ensure that there is a fair and open nominating process in which voters can determine which GOP candidate they prefer.
“The age of party leaders picking people is over,” wrote former House Speaker and Scozzafava supporter Newt Gingrich in an email to POLITICO, alluding to Scozzafava’s having received the nomination by a vote of county party committee chairman.
Karl Rove said the local process in which the Republican was chosen and New York’s uniquely powerful Conservative Party made for an aberrant set of circumstances that would not likely be repeated around the country.
“When 11 people in a backroom pick among nine candidates, there are going to be hard feelings,” Rove said in a telephone interview, referring to the county chairs who tapped Scozzafava. “Most states don’t have third-parties as readily available and no other state has as cohesive and persistent a third party as the Conservative Party in New York.”
Rove noted that this is in part because in New York, ballots can be cast on third-party lines for major-party candidates who are also co-nominated by the smaller parties.
But other conservatives say the problem in both the New York contest and hampering Republicans more broadly is the tendency of GOP establishment leaders in Washington to get behind moderate candidates out of fear a purist conservative can’t win a general election.
"Hmmm, I thought the Era of Reagan was over?” wrote Rush Limbaugh in an email to POLITICO. “Who was it that said that? Oh yeah, the smart people on our side who told us the only way we could win was with moderate-liberal candidates like Scozzafava.”
Erick Erickson, who runs the popular conservative blog RedState, predicted future family fights and put the blame squarely at the feet of national party leaders, who he noted spent nearly $1 million to bolster a candidate who quit before Election Day.
“Thanks to Pete Sessions, Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, not Doug Hoffman, there is a new inspiration for a third-party movement to challenge the GOP – a movement that will only help Democrats,” Erickson wrote Saturday. “Good men in the GOP are now going to be challenged in primaries because of the ill-will the NRCC has generated in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.”
Democrats, while acknowledging the difficulty they’d now have in picking up the New York seat on Tuesday, were quick to claim that Scozzafava’s decision proved that the GOP is split and leaderless.
“During August, Republicans thought they’d be able to harness the energy of the far-right, but the opposite has happened,” DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen told POLITICO in a phone interview. “The far-right, tea-bag party is leading there Republican Party around by the nose.”
Van Hollen cited the New York race as “exhibit A” that the GOP has been taken over by the right-wing.
“The Republican candidate was effectively forced out of the race by a third-party candidate funded by the far-right,” he said, adding: “If we see this same phenomenon play out then it certainly could help Democratic candidates next year because we’d be facing a much more divided opposition.”
Democrats also moved Saturday to cast Scozzafava’s move as a sign that centrists had no place in the GOP.
“The true leaders of the Republican Party like Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck and Tim Pawlenty have said to all moderates and independents: ‘When it comes to being part of our party you need not apply,’” said DNC communications director Brad Woodhouse, citing individuals who got behind Hoffman.
Another top Democratic strategist said, “It's clear that even the GOP conference isn't united around winning, there are ideological breaks,” noting that the NRCC had tapped about a quarter of their cash in the bank for a candidate who didn’t even have endorsements from a chunk of the House GOP.
“The Republicans now have to deal with an empowered, emboldened, and well-funded far-right,” said this Democrat.
Asked if they were worried about what the New York example may mean for other primaries next year, a House GOP Leadership aide involved in the special election said: “Is there concern? There is always concern.”
But, this official said, the party had been careful to select conservative contenders in most cases.
“Of our 45 candidates, I would note that most are conservatives.”
And Rove made the case that the sort of tea-party activists who flocked to New York’s sprawling North Country to aid Hoffman are not composed of right-wingers who spend their days reading conservative blogs and closely following politics.
“They’re really wired up right now about deficits, spending and the expansion of government,” he said. “A great many may identify as conservatives, but they don’t fit the traditional model. The thing that makes them unpredictable is that they’re mostly fresh actors on the scene.”
So, Rove said, the GOP must find “candidates who can channel anti-Obama, anti-Washington sentiment in constructive ways.”
He suggested having to choose between ideological purity and projecting a welcoming image to independents represented a false choice.
Rove cited Virginia Republican gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell, who enjoys a commanding lead in the polls in a state Obama captured last year, as the type of candidate who has been able to tap into the populist frustrations on the right and center-right without alienating the sort of pivotal moderates who can often swing elections.
“He’s a conservative but has offered a positive, optimistic vision of small government,” Rove said. “And he has come across with a pleasing, moderate demeanor.”
Even as they take stock of what Scozzafava’s withdrawal means, most Republicans are seeing only upside in what seems likely to happen next week in the three closely-watched off-year races, all in localities that Obama won last year, Virginia, New Jersey and New York-23.
“The big story Tuesday will be the collapse of the Democratic brand in three states as Democratic nominees run ten to twenty points behind Obama’s vote a year ago,” wrote Gingrich, who came under a wave of criticism for his support of Scozzafava.
But even as they start to savor what could be a clean sweep, Republicans also must be mindful of what a Hoffman win could set off.
“I think it will empower tea party activists” to look for moderate scalps in other districts,” fretted one senior GOP strategist with national campaign experience. “The question is, Will we go through a period in the party where a great purge begins?” this strategist asked. “If it spreads into that, this will be a very bad day.”
Davis said the party was now confronted with what he termed “a good problem to have.”
“We need to capture this lightning in a bottle,” he said of the conservative energy. “They’re now the energy base of the party. But you can’t let them run the show or you’re going to lose all the independents.”
Scozzafava bows out of NY-23 race
Republican Dede Scozzafava announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign in the Nov. 3 House special election in New York, a dramatic development that increases the GOP's chances of winning the contentious and closely-watched race.
"In recent days, polls have indicated that my chances of winning this election are not as strong as we would like them to be. The reality that I've come to accept is that in today's political arena, you must be able to back up your message with money—and as I've been outspent on both sides, I've been unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record,” she said in a statement.
“It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican.”
Her decision came as a Siena Research Institute poll released Saturday confirmed that her support has all but collapsed over the last month. In her statement, Scozzafava acknowledged that while her name will continue to appear on the ballot, “victory is unlikely.”
The Siena poll conducted Oct. 27-29, in line with other recent polls, showed Democrat Bill Owens holding a razor-thin lead over Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, 36 percent to 35 percent.
Scozzafava trailed far behind at 20 percent, with 9 percent of voters still undecided.
The National Republican Congressional Committee will now be throwing its support to Hoffman, after endorsing Scozzafava and deriding the Conservative Party candidate in statements throughout much of the race.
The fortunes of Scozzafava and Hoffman had nearly flipped over the last month as national attention focused on the upstate New York race, which has become a rallying point for grassroots conservatives.
Conservatives have asserted that Scozzafava, a GOP establishment-backed state assemblywoman who supports abortion rights and gay marriage, is far too liberal for them to support and numerous prominent GOP figures have recently endorsed Hoffman.
Scozzafava, who in the beginning of the month was the frontrunner with a 7-point lead over Owens in an Oct. 1 Siena poll, saw her support crater while Hoffman surged from a distant third place to a virtual tie in the polls with Owens.
With Scozzafava slipping in the polls and her candidacy dividing the GOP, national Republicans began hedging their bets on her campaign and have recently signaled that they would no longer actively resist Hoffman’s candidacy.
National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (R-Texas) told POLITICO Thursday that he would welcome Hoffman “with open arms.” On Friday, Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele told POLITICO that a Hoffman victory is essentially a Republican Party victory.
“You’ve got two Republicans running in that race. My upside is that one of them will likely win,” Steele said. “We want to be supporting the one that wins.”
“He would be very welcome, with open arms,” Sessions told POLITICO in an interview off the House floor.
The decision to suspend her campaign is a boost for Hoffman, who already had the support of 50 percent of GOP voters, according to a newly-released Siena poll, and is now well-positioned to win over the 25 percent of Republicans who had been sticking with Scozzafava.
Republicans applauded Scozzafava’s decision Saturday.
“Dede Scozzafava has placed her Party and her principles over politics and position for years,” said New York GOP chairman Ed Cox in a statement. “For those who know her, her actions today come as no surprise because they show real leadership. It is testament to her character and strength under difficult circumstances.”
Susan B. Anthony List President Marjorie Dannenfelser, whose group has organized an independent pro-Hoffman grassroots ground program and spent over $125,000 in the race said, "Dede Scozzafava’s courage and strength allowed her to make the choice to let the strongest candidate in her party move forward, and to serve the voters of the 23rd District.''
The NRCC released a joint statement from House Republican Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), House Republican Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and Sessions, indicating that the party will now throw its support behind Hoffman.
"As the House stands on the cusp of the forthcoming vote on a trillion-dollar healthcare reform measure, it is vital that we unify behind a candidate that will support reining in massive government spending and work with Republicans in Congress to restore fiscal sanity and propose thoughtful measures to get our nation’s economy on the right track," the statement read. “With Assemblywoman Scozzafava suspending her campaign, we urge voters to support Doug Hoffman’s candidacy in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.
“We look forward to welcoming Doug Hoffman into the House Republican Conference as we work together for the good of our nation.”
One Republican strategist familiar with the race said Scozzafava’s departure from the race significantly increased the GOP’s chances of holding the seat left vacant by the resignation of GOP Rep. John McHugh.
“Republicans and Independents will now be able to unite behind one candidacy. Dede's last base of support was among Republican loyalists. They likely overwhelmingly switch to Hoffman,” the strategist said. “As a practical matter, this lets the GOTV operations of two campaigns merge into one - makes a huge mechanical difference in a special election.”
Hoffman echoed that sentiment in a statement Saturday.
“This morning’s events prove what we have said for the last week; this campaign is a horserace between me and Nancy Pelosi’s handpicked candidate, Bill Owens. At this moment, the Democratic Party, the Working Families Party, ACORN, Big Labor and pro-abortion groups are flooding the district with troops and they are flooding the airwaves with a million dollars worth of negative ads. They are throwing mud; they are trying to stop me,” he said. “It’s time for us to send a message to Washington—we’re sick and tired of big-spending, high-taxing, career politicians and by voting for me on Tuesday you will send that message loud and clear.”
Recognizing that a two-candidate race increased the chances that Republicans would hold on to the seat, a senior Democrat said the party will work to get Scozzafava to endorse Owens in an attempt to pick up some of her moderate supporters.
"If we don't get her on board we lose," said the Democrat.
Another senior Democrat said it the situation is still too fluid to come to any conclusions.
"Unpredictable this late – she's a very well known elected official and she remains on the ballot so she'll likely pull some votes but it's hard to say how many," the official said.
A profile in courage, it isn't - GOP latecomers hop on Hoffman bandwagon
As conservative activists scored a political scalp, mainstream Republicans wasted no time in grasping at the coat tails of Conservative Doug Hoffman.
The much-watched off-year special election in upstate New York's 23rd Congressional District that had Republicans scrambling to pick the right side turned into a stampede rightward Saturday, as stragglers rushed to endorse Hoffman after Republican Dede Scozzafava suspended a campaign that she appeared to have little chance of winning.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who’d previously warned that backing Hoffman in the NY-23 House race amounted to a “purge” of the GOP, told POLITICO Saturday morning that he was now endorsing the conservative, "and believe[s] everyone who wants to create jobs with lower taxes and to control spending and deficits should vote for Hoffman Tuesday."
The National Republican Congressional Committee, which had slammed the Conservative contender in a seemingly endless series of press releases, declared that they too now “look forward to welcoming Doug Hoffman into the House Republican Conference as we work together for the good of our nation.”
Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, who said in recent weeks that he was standing by Scozzafava, announced that “effective immediately, the RNC will endorse and support the conservative candidate in the race, Doug Hoffman,” and that he was re-gearing the party apparatus to boost Hoffman in the final days of the contest.
All three statements came within an hour of Scozzafava’s announcement.
Former Arkansas gov. and 2012 GOP hopeful Mike Huckabee — who alienated many conservative backers of his 2008 White House bid by conspicuously declining to throw his support behind Hoffman — followed with a muted statement, written in the third person and signed Huck PAC: "We commend Dede Scozzafava for stepping aside and in light of her very unselfish announcement, we join the RNC and other Republicans in urging support for Doug Hoffman."
Saturday’s rush caps a week of late-in-the-race Hoffman endorsements from establishment Republicans seizing the chance to score points with conservative purists, and back a winner at the same time.
While Hoffman’s early supporters cast their endorsements as a decision to place principle above party, for many – especially those seeking higher office – the conservative vs. moderate proxy battle provided a low-risk opportunity to back a candidate surging in the polls while at the same time banking capital with right-wingers.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry, facing a heated challenge from Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, declared in an e-mail to his supporters this week, “Electing Doug Hoffman will send a clear message that cannot be denied: conservatives must stand on principle.”
Oklahoma Rep. Mary Fallin, competing for the GOP nod in her run for governor, wrote Hoffman this week that his campaign, “has reminded Americans everywhere that principles come before party affiliation.”
In his Hoffman endorsement, Kansas Rep. Todd Tiahrt, engaged in a heated Senate GOP primary against fellow Rep. Jerry Moran, announced, “The Republican Party is either going to return to the party of fiscal responsibility and consistent conservative principles as it was under Ronald Reagan or it will continue down the path of ‘sporadic moderation.’”
Not to be outdone, Moran gave Hoffman his seal of approval a day later.
“It’s all about self-interest in most cases,” explained University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. “NY-23 has become a powerful symbol for the right, and any candidate who is trying to stay out is finding neutrality to be as difficult as nation-states did in World War II.”
Sabato compared the party’s backlash to its own nominee to the early 1990s response to David Duke’s runs, when Republicans in Louisiana and nationally turned their back on the white supremacist.
“This is the most remarkable aspect of the entire contest,” Sabato said. “There is a national footrace by elected Republican officials and candidates to abandon the official GOP congressional nominee.”
“Everyone is trying to use their endorsements for political purposes,” added Carl Forti, a veteran GOP operative who has upstate New York ties. “It’s like, who’s going to be the last guy to the party?”
As polls showed Hoffman pulling ahead and Scozzafava at best a spoiler, latecomers raced to latch on to the new frontrunner's coattails. Former New York Governor George Pataki, a moderate Republican rumored to be considering a senate run next year, announced his support in a tepid statement on Friday, less than 24 hours before Hoffman cleared the right side of the field.
Former congressman and GOP gubernatorial hopeful Rick Lazio, who’s best known for his spectacularly botched 2001 senate run against Hillary Clinton, joined the Hoffman camp after the question was resolved – about an hour after Scozzafava announced she was suspending her campaign.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who irked conservatives earlier this month, when he admitted he hadn’t been following the New York race, reversed course earlier this week, saying Hoffman “understands the federal government needs to quit spending so much, will vote against tax increases, and protect key values like the right to vote in private in union elections.”
Also belatedly picking a side this past week were two House Republicans facing primaries from the right and looking to cover that flank: Missouri Rep. Todd Akin and Indiana Rep. Mark Souder.
“I realize that, to capture the majority in Congress, not all Republicans can be as conservative as I am,” said Souder, who is facing a challenge from a conservative, tea party-inspired opponent.
But, Souder said, “Not all Republicans in Congress feel power is more important than basic principles.”
“They’re trying to brand themselves nationally and ingratiate themselves with that wing of the party,” said Tom Davis, a former chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
“It’s not brave politics,” one former New York GOP leader said this week. “It makes for an easy call for politicians to jump on the conservative nominee.”
New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, a moderate Republican who is running for Senate and who is facing the prospect of a challenge from the right, also eventually endorsed Hoffman, saying Friday that, “we must have pro-growth economic policies that will create jobs."
Even as their campaign encountered strong resistance from conservatives, Scozzafava allies say they were taken aback by the hemorrhaging of GOP establishment support to Hoffman.
“It’s almost like we have two parties now. Is the NRCC going to be relevant in the future?” one person close to the Scozzafava campaign remarked late this week. “This is the strangest thing I have ever seen.”
“I don’t know what to make of this thing, to be honest. There are so many angles to this thing. It’s wild.”
But as Republicans broke ranks to back Hoffman, there is significant concern within the party leadership over the precedent it sets for potential disunity within GOP in the future.
“If there is anything to be lost, it would be within the party structure,” said Forti. “This is setting a precedent for the party for the future which will allow the party to be torn apart.”
“It is every man for themselves,” lamented another Republican operative. “There is clearly no cohesion.”
Where Do Scozzafava's Voters Go?
Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal flags a previously unreported crosstab from the Siena Research Institute survey: 64 percent of Scozzafava voters in the survey identified as Republicans, while only 19 percent identified with the Democratic party.
As Blumenthal notes, that makes it awfully tough for Owens to pick up much support in the aftermath of Scozzafava's campaign suspension. The Republicans who stuck with Scozzafava in the Siena survey fit into three rough categories: 1) Watertown-area voters who she’s represented in the state Assembly and were with her the whole way; 2) party-line voters who stuck with her out of devotion to the GOP; 3) true Rockefeller Republicans who blanche at Hoffman’s conservatism.
Of those three categories, Owens is unlikely to make inroads with the first two groups. His only hope is to peel off the moderates who view Hoffman as too conservative – and it seems like they’re not thrilled with Democrat Bill Owens, either. The Siena poll showed Owens viewed as unfavorably among Scozzafava supporters (50 percent unfavorable) as Hoffman was (57 percent unfavorable).
So with Republicans now rallying around Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman, and the vast majority of Scozzafava backers associating themselves with the GOP, it’s a challenging road to victory for Owens.
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Sources: Politico, MSNBC, National Journal, Pollster.com, Wikipedia, Youtube, Google Maps
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