N.C. Senate Majority Leader Martin Nesbitt Tuesday invoked the Republican landslide of 1994 in urging Democrats to take nothing for granted - and go to the polls.
He told the Charlotte Uptown Democrats that changes in election law could help his party avoid a GOP sweep like the one that surprised Democrats 16 years ago.
"We know it can happen now," he said at the Levine Museum of the New South. "That's probably the biggest thing that's different."
Nesbitt, an Asheville Democrat, also touted new figures that show North Carolina led the nation in job gains from July to August and ranked fourth in the country in gains over the last 12 months - numbers that he said argue for continued Democratic leadership in Raleigh.
Nesbitt is the second-ranking Democrat in a Senate where Democrats now control 30 of 50 seats. But seven Democratic incumbents are either retiring or already have gone.
And with polls showing more voter enthusiasm for Republicans, the GOP is confident of picking up at least the six seats that would put them in charge for the first time since 1898.
On Monday the conservative Civitas Institute released a poll that showed Republicans leading Democrats on a generic legislative ballot by 11 percentage points.
John Davis, a pro-business political analyst, predicted Tuesday that if the elections were held now, Republicans would win at least 27 seats and are within reach of 29.
Nesbitt said he believes Democrats will hold most contested races, even those in Republican-leaning districts currently held by Democrats.
"At the end of the day, they're ours," he said. "The only way those people are going to lose is if we don't turn our people out on Election Day."
Nesbitt, who lost a House seat in the 1994 GOP landslide, was joined by Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx in urging Democrats to vote. He said unlike 1994, his party has on its side early-voting and same-day registration, which so far have helped Democrats.
The elections take place in the shadow of a state budget shortfall estimated at $3 billion. Nesbitt said Democrats would ensure that the state deals with that without hurting education - which takes up 57 percent of the budget - and other critical programs. Not so Republicans, he added.
"I guess they would cut $3 billion," said Nesbitt. "And they said they want to cut taxes too, so if they do that they would have to cut more (spending)."
Senate Minority Leader Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, agreed that Republicans would cut spending, but systematically.
"One of the things very easy for them to do is say all those (Republicans) are going to do is slash-and-burn. That's not what we're going to do," Berger said. "I think most folks believe there's a degree of waste and inefficiency in government."
Berger said Republicans would adopt a long-range plan to reduce spending.
Asked later how he would fix the $3 billion shortfall, Nesbitt said he would keep his options open, but called a tax increase "unlikely."
"If we ever start recovering out of this recession, a lot of that will take care of itself," he said.
The grim outlook for Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections just got a little worse.
Four top Democrats — including veteran Sens. Chris Dodd and Byron Dorgan — all prepared to pull the plug on their campaigns in a 24-hour period that began Tuesday, and in the process, offered an unnerving glimpse at the perilous election year ahead.
With Dorgan’s stunning retirement announcement Tuesday evening, Democrats are now facing their bleakest election outlook in years — and the very real possibility the party will lose its 60-40 Senate super majority after the November elections. On the House side, the prospect of a 20 to 30 seat loss is already looking increasingly likely.
“It’s not good news for Democrats,” said Roy Temple, a Democratic strategist. “The reality is this is going to be a challenging year, and this is an additional challenge you would prefer not to have. Because of the success of the last two cycles, there are a lot of seats to defend. This is just an additional complication.”
Dorgan’s announcement was accompanied Tuesday by Michigan Democratic Lt. Gov. John Cherry’s decision to end his floundering bid for governor, and by the revelation that both Dodd and Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter would announce Wednesday that they would not seek reelection.
There is some silver lining in the Democratic cloud: Ritter, Cherry and Dodd were all struggling to gain traction and their departures could actually increase Democratic chances of holding those offices.
Several top-tier prospects immediately surfaced in Colorado as potential Democratic candidates for governor. In Connecticut, Democrats expect that state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal will run in Dodd’s place, providing them with a stronger nominee than the embattled five-term senator.
But the retirements of two senior Democratic senators, and the suddenly altered landscapes in Michigan and Colorado, continue a wave of Democratic bailouts that began with a burst of retirements by veteran House Democrats representing competitive districts, followed by the stunning late December party switch by freshman Alabama Rep. Parker Griffith.
In the meantime, President Barack Obama’s and the Democratic Party’s poll ratings have slipped across the board, generic polling is now generally more favorable to Republicans and a handful of promising Democratic House candidates have abruptly ended their campaigns.
Suddenly, the sad sack GOP is looking at its best shot in three election cycles of making serious gains in November.
“Sen. Dorgan’s retirement coupled with the recent spate of retirements by House Democrats show the national mood is swinging against them,” said Carl Forti, a GOP strategist. “With Sen. Blanche Lincoln and others in a precarious position, Democrats will have to thread the needle to get back to 60 seats.”
In Dorgan’s case, Republicans now have a very strong chance at picking up his seat in Republican-oriented North Dakota, a state that Obama lost by eight points in 2008 and John Kerry lost by 27 points in 2004.
Dorgan said his decision had nothing to do with his re-election campaign, where he had yet to face stiff competition — though the popular GOP Gov. John Hoeven might have jumped into the race and forced the senator to wage a fierce campaign. In the wake of Dorgan's announcement, North Dakota GOP Chairman Gary Emineth told POLITICO that he believes Hoeven is likely to run now.
In a memo to staff and later to the press, Dorgan said that he came to his decision over the holiday season and wanted to pursue interests outside politics, including writing two more books, working on energy policy and teaching.
“[M]y decision has no relationship to the prospect of a difficult election contest this year,” Dorgan said. “Frankly, I think if I had decided to run for another term in the Senate I would be reelected.”
Still, his decision forces Democrats to defend yet another open seat in addition to Delaware and Illinois — two states in which Democrats typically run up the score but where the GOP is poised to run competitive candidates this year. And it comes in a year in which Democratic incumbents including Majority Leader Harry Reid, Sen. Arlen Specter, appointed Sen. Michael Bennet and Lincoln are battling weak poll numbers.
“Remember the old Tareyton cigarette slogan? ‘I'd rather fight than switch?’” said Alex Castellanos, who advises the Republican National Committee. “Now that the Democrats are expected to drop under 60, we will probably see other retirements as Democrats decide they would rather retire than fight.”
Despite the souring outlook, Democrats are hopeful about their chances in five of the six states where Senate Republicans have their own retirement-related problems — Ohio, New Hampshire, Missouri, Florida and Kentucky. They envision a scenario in which the economy will yield job growth heading into the midterms, and expect that public perception of the party will brighten if Congress gives final approval to the Democrats’ sweeping health care bill and approves other measures on the ambitious agenda.
Some Democrats give little credence to the retirements, noting that they have no broader meaning other than the fact that individual lawmakers chose not to run for reelection.
“These guys quit sometimes,” said Jim Jordan, a Democratic strategist.
The timing — the first week of the new year — and the locales of the retirements makes them hard to dismiss as isolated incidents, however.
In Colorado, the epicenter of the recent Democratic resurgence in the interior west, it is telling that Ritter, a 53-year-old former Denver prosecutor who cruised to victory in 2006, would unexpectedly pull down the curtain on a promising career and that Bennet, the senator he appointed to a vacant Senate seat, would be in jeopardy of losing it.
In Michigan, a state battered by job losses but still a reliable Democratic bulwark in state and federal races in recent years, the heir apparent to two-term Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm is similarly quitting before even starting, unable to raise money or get out from under the shadow of what has become a deeply unpopular administration.
And back in Washington, Democrats were all but blindsided by Dorgan’s decision to retire rather than seek a fourth term in a seat that only he might have been able to hold. Neither the Senate majority leader nor the White House even had a statement prepared.
Compounding the problem for Democrats — and spreading the pain to all three Democratic campaign committees Tuesday — the one Democrat who may be able to hold Dorgan’s seat is Rep. Earl Pomeroy. But if he vacates North Dakota’s at-large seat, that would create another problem: Republicans would be positioned for another House pickup.
The odds for a Republican take over of the North Carolina State Senate just got a lot better. State Senator R.C. Soles (D-Tabor City), the longest serving in the Senate has announced that he will not seek re-election. It’s not that surprising that he has chosen to retire. Aside from being 75 years old, he has been plagued with two scandals, one that he molested a teen aged boy and he is facing a possible indictment for shooting someone in his home last August.
Republicans need to win six Senate seats to take over the body and Soles is another retirement that may make that possible. The district has been trending towards the GOP and Soles opponent last year, Bettie Fennell, came considerably close to defeating him. Soles’ retirement is in addition to a few other Democrat retirements who also represent Republican friendly districts.
Senator David Hoyle of Gastonia represents a heavily Republican leaning district that the GOP will almost certainly pick up. Senator Julia Boseman of Wilmington who like Soles has been embroiled in personal conflicts has also decided not to run for re-election. Her predecessor was a Republican.
Who controls the state legislature next year will be vital as he who has the power controls the redistricting after the Census is completed.
His time to go was several years ago. Tony Rand had his hands directly in steering North Carolina into being the highest taxed state in the southeastern U.S., the beginning of turning the state into a northeastern rust bucket.
There will now be a fight I’m sure among the Senate Democrats to claw their way up to the top and take over as Majority Leader. That should be an interesting sight to behold. What will also be on the radar is how hard the Republicans will fight to try and win this seat when the special election is called. The GOP needs to win six Senate seats if they want to take it over in 2010 before redistricting takes place. I don’t know how heavily Democrat this seat is, but if they can pick it up that will bring them closer to their goal.
There is speculation at Katy’s Conservative Corner as to whether or not Rand’s resignation has anything to do with the recent Easley trials, but according to the N&O he is stepping down to take a position as chairman of the State Parole Board.
R.C. Soles Jr., a N.C. State Senator from Tabor City will be indicted by a grand jury. This was reported in the News and Observer today.
The grand jury wrote in its presentment that it had reason to believe that Soles had committed a crime:
Twelve or more grand jurors concur in finding probable cause to believe that R.C. Soles, Jr. committed the offense of Assault With a Deadly Weapon Inflicting Serious Injury against Thomas Kyle Blackburn in Columbus County on or about August 23, 2009 by unlawfully, willfully and feloniously shooting Thomas Kyle Blackburn and inflicting serious injury.
Looks like we have another Democratic being taken to the woodshed. I wonder if Democrats will call for his resignation like they did the drunk Republican? Will they treat him the same as Rep. Wright?
Martin Nesbitt isn't known for toeing the party line. Over nearly three decades in the House and Senate, he has been a loyal lieutenant of some Democratic leaders and a thorn in the side of others.
But in his new job, the Asheville senator will try to keep 30 Senate Democrats speaking with one voice.
“I'm changing roles right now. I've been a warrior,” Nesbitt said, emerging from the room where Democratic senators voted unanimously Tuesday to name him Senate majority leader.
The new post is the highest a mountain legislator has risen to since Nesbitt was a top House budget writer in the early 1990s and perhaps since the days of the late House Speaker Liston Ramsey, of Madison County.
In the Senate's No. 2 job — in recent years, one of the most powerful in the state — Nesbitt will take the lead in deciding what's on Senate Democrats' agenda headed into their most important election in a decade.
“It carries a lot of weight with it,” said Ran Coble, executive director of the nonpartisan N.C. Center for Public Policy Research. “I think it means that the issues that are of interest to people in the mountains will always get a hearing and probably will get high attention from the Senate.”
Nesbitt said the new post will change nothing about his willingness to say what's on his mind.
“Pouring concrete on me won't fix that,” he said. “But at the end of the day I'm going to be trying to help this caucus get to where it wants to go.”
Time will tell how Nesbitt's confrontational style will mesh with the leadership of Senate leader Marc Basnight, who endorsed him to be his top lieutenant.
Basnight has guided the Senate's path since 1993, mostly with Sen. Tony Rand at his side. It has tended to be more tightly controlled than the House and more likely to side with business.
Rand is leaving the Senate to chair the state Parole Board. His replacement as majority leader is a populist whose arguments frequently focus on how government can help the poor and less fortunate.
Defending the underdog
Nesbitt has cultivated a reputation as a mountain populist, echoing mentors like Ramsey.
It's a philosophy that centers on trying to help the average Joe, a perspective Nesbitt delivers in a distinctive baritone and peppers with folksy turns of phrase.
“I've heard him, time after time, talk about the working man or the little man in budget debates,” said Chris Fitzsimon, executive director of the liberal N.C. Policy Watch.
That attitude and the issues he has supported have made Nesbitt a favorite of some liberal groups, though Nesbitt himself says liberal and conservative labels are outdated.
He helped shepherd a bill through the Senate this year that will allow for more explicit sex education in schools. He has sought unsuccessfully to fund programs giving clean needles to intravenous drug users.
In the Senate, Nesbitt has focused most of his attention on the mental health system.
He dived into the issue as it became clear that a reform effort by legislators and former Gov. Mike Easley's administration had gone awry, leaving patients struggling to find care.
“He's got a crackerjack mind, and he has a lot of compassion. I'd say he's looking out for the underdog,” said former Rep. Marie Colton, of Asheville, another Nesbitt mentor who sat next to his mother, Mary, and then her son on the House floor.
Shifting Senate
John Hood, president of the conservative John Locke Foundation, said he expects business lobbies to have a harder time preventing legislation on economic issues like taxes, labor and health care from receiving a hearing.
Nesbitt “is simply closer to the left of the Democratic Party than Tony Rand was,” he said.
Whatever the label, Nesbitt's ascension to leadership is another sign the Senate has shifted as the old guard is gradually replaced.
“It's like a rebirth,” Nesbitt said. “We've retooled, we're ready to go forward, and everybody's on board.”
Observers like Hood and Fitzsimon predicted more of the Senate's business might happen in the open.
Under Basnight and Rand, key decisions about the state budget have been made in private.
In his role as Rules Committee chairman, it was common for Rand to prevent votes on Republican amendments that might embarrass Democrats come election time. Democrats, including Nesbitt, voted to support Rand's parliamentary maneuvers.
A new rules chairman has not been named, and Nesbitt won't get the job. But he is likely to play a role in the budget negotiations. Fitzsimon, who as an aide to then-Speaker Dan Blue watched Nesbitt write budgets, said he pushed the process toward openness.
Hammering out agreement
One of Nesbitt's biggest accomplishments came with 2002 passage of the Clean Smokestacks Act, forcing power plants to cut down on toxic emissions.
Former Sen. Steve Metcalf, a Weaverville Democrat who was Nesbitt's partner on the smokestacks legislation, said he could tell during their push that Nesbitt loves the legislative process and has mastered it.
“He was very good at bringing folks in to the room, sitting down and saying, ‘We need a bill out of this, fellas,'” Metcalf said.
Two years of such negotiations won support from business interests, Nesbitt said.
That kind of practical politics is the reason the public policy center ranked Nesbitt in the top 25 most effective of 120 House members in every term after his first one and among the 15 most effective of 50 senators.
When he's not in Raleigh or at his Asheville law firm, he can be found on the track as crew chief for his son Mart's stock car racing team.
The role has led to political headaches. His opponents and a former state auditor questioned if having Blue Cross Blue Shield of North Carolina as the team's former sponsor was a conflict of interest, given the insurer's business with the state.
But it could be good experience now that he's in a role that might be described as crew chief for Senate Democrats heading into the 2010 elections, which will decide which party redraws legislative and Congressional districts.
In the meantime, he'll spend plenty more time on the 250-mile drive to Raleigh.
He's put 210,000 miles on his 1999 Cadillac DeVille.
“My biggest problem is, I've got to buy another car,” he said.
Senate Democrats elected Sen. Martin Nesbitt, a racing crew chief and self-described mountain populist from Asheville, as their new majority leader today.
Nesbitt quickly tried to quell any fears – or hopes, depending on the perspective – that he would steer the Senate down a more liberal course.
"I’m changing roles now," Nesbitt said after his unanimous election. "I’ve been a warrior…I’ll still have my opinions, and I’ll express them…but at the end of the day I’ll be about trying to help this caucus get where it wants to go."
Nesbitt’s tenure in the legislature started in 1979 and was interrupted once, when he lost his House seat in 1994 during the Republican tide that year. The GOP has hopes of riding voter discontent to a similar sweep next year, and Nesbitt said the lessons learned from 15 years ago will be invaluable as he helps Democrats prepare.
"There are very few things that I’m the most qualified for," he said, "but getting us through this election is one of them."
Martin Nesbitt, a Lawyer, also runs the racing operations for his son, Mart, who races in the USAR Pro Cup series.
Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight's endorsement of Sen. Martin Nesbitt, of Asheville, for majority leader has left Sen. Dan Clodfelter, of Charlotte, with few directions to go to pursue the job.
Basnight, of Manteo, wrote to his Democratic colleagues on Friday encouraging them to support Nesbitt to replace outgoing Majority Leader Tony Rand, of Fayetteville.
"For our state to endure these difficult economic times, we need to focus all of our energies and efforts on creating jobs, improving education and health care, and giving everyone in North Carolina a chance at success," Basnight wrote. "Martin Nesbitt has fought for these important priorities throughout his decades of public service."
Several Democratic senators last week said Clodfelter was running for the majority leader's job, but the same day Basnight's letter appeared, Clodfelter refused to say whether he was a candidate.
The difficulty for him is that Nesbitt carries considerable loyalty among the more liberal wing of the Democratic caucus, while the more conservative and business-oriented side of the party remains loyal to Basnight. Those obstacles, along with Clodfelter's history of irritating colleagues with his brusque manner, leave a limited number of senators from whom Clodfelter might gain support.
The shuffle to fill what is effectively the No. 2 post in the N.C. Senate has left Sen. Dan Clodfelter of Charlotte with few directions to pursue the job.
Senate Democrats are tentatively scheduled to meet next Tuesday to elect a new majority leader.
Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight endorsed Asheville Sen. Martin Nesbitt for Senate majority leader in a letter to his fellow Democratic senators on Friday.
Basnight, of Manteo, praised Nesbitt as a replacement for outgoing Majority Leader Tony Rand of Fayetteville, who last week announced plans to resign.
Several Democratic senators last week said Clodfelter was running for the majority leader's job. The same day Basnight's letter appeared, Clodfelter urged senators not to move quickly to fill the majority leader's post, but he wavered as to whether he was a candidate.
"I'm not at that point," Clodfelter told the Asheville Citizen-Times, before adding: "I'm not telling you I'm not a candidate."
He has not returned repeated phone calls and e-mails from the Observer
The difficulty for Clodfelter is that Nesbitt carries considerable loyalty among the more liberal wing of the Democratic caucus, while the more conservative side remains loyal to Basnight.
Those obstacles, along with Clodfelter's history of irritating colleagues with his brusque manner, leave a limited number of senators from whom Clodfelter might gain support.
Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight's endorsement of Sen. Martin Nesbitt, of Asheville, for majority leader has left Sen. Dan Clodfelter, of Charlotte (right), with few directions to go to pursue the job.
Basnight, of Manteo, wrote to his Democratic colleagues (see link below) on Friday encouraging them to support Nesbitt to replace outgoing Majority Leader Tony Rand, of Fayetteville.
"For our state to endure these difficult economic times, we need to focus all of our energies and efforts on creating jobs, improving education and health care, and giving everyone in North Carolina a chance at success," Basnight wrote. "Martin Nesbitt has fought for these important priorities throughout his decades of public service."
Several Democratic senators last week said Clodfelter was running for the majority leader's job, but the same day Basnight's letter appeared, Clodfelter refused to say whether he was a candidate.
The difficulty for him is that Nesbitt carries considerable loyalty among the more liberal wing of the Democratic caucus, while the more conservative and business-oriented side of the party remains loyal to Basnight. Those obstacles, along with Clodfelter's history of irritating colleagues with his brusque manner, leave a limited number of senators from whom Clodfelter might gain support.
The shuffle to fill what is effectively the No. 2 post in the N.C. Senate has left Sen. Dan Clodfelter of Charlotte with few directions to pursue the job.
Senate Democrats are tentatively scheduled to meet next Tuesday to elect a new majority leader.
Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight endorsed Asheville Sen. Martin Nesbitt for Senate majority leader in a letter to his fellow Democratic senators on Friday.
Basnight, of Manteo, praised Nesbitt as a replacement for outgoing Majority Leader Tony Rand of Fayetteville, who last week announced plans to resign.
Several Democratic senators last week said Clodfelter was running for the majority leader's job. The same day Basnight's letter appeared, Clodfelter urged senators not to move quickly to fill the majority leader's post, but he wavered as to whether he was a candidate.
"I'm not at that point," Clodfelter told the Asheville Citizen-Times, before adding: "I'm not telling you I'm not a candidate."
He has not returned repeated phone calls and e-mails from the Observer
The difficulty for Clodfelter is that Nesbitt carries considerable loyalty among the more liberal wing of the Democratic caucus, while the more conservative side remains loyal to Basnight.
Those obstacles, along with Clodfelter's history of irritating colleagues with his brusque manner, leave a limited number of senators from whom Clodfelter might gain support.
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