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Showing posts with label Gallup Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gallup Polls. Show all posts

Monday, May 28, 2012

Romney Leads Obama Among Veteran Voters: Romney Releases Memorial Day Video












Veterans Give Romney Big Lead Over Obama

U.S. veterans, about 13% of the adult population and consisting mostly of older men, support Mitt Romney over Barack Obama for president by 58% to 34%, while nonveterans give Obama a four-percentage-point edge.

These data, from an analysis of Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted April 11-May 24, show that 24% of all adult men are veterans, compared with 2% of adult women.

Obama and Romney are tied overall at 46% apiece among all registered voters in this sample. Men give Romney an eight-point edge, while women opt for Obama over Romney by seven points.

It turns out that the male skew for Romney is driven almost entirely by veterans. Romney leads by one point among nonveteran men, contrasted with the 28-point edge Romney receives among male veterans.

The small percentage of female veterans in the U.S., in contrast to their male counterparts, do not differ significantly in their presidential vote choice from the vast majority of women who are not veterans.

The proportion of U.S. men who are armed forces veterans rises dramatically among those who are 60 and older.

The military draft was in force in the U.S. from shortly before the U.S. entry into World War II until the early 1970s. A majority of men now 70 to 89 served in the military, including almost three-quarters of those aged 80 to 89. Less than a fifth of men younger than 50 have served in the military. There is little variation in military service among women across these age groups.

Age makes little substantive difference in the vote preferences of male veterans. Those younger than 50 are roughly as likely to support Romney as are those 60 and older. Male veterans aged 50 to 59 are slightly less skewed toward Romney, but still support him by a 15-point margin.

Bottom Line

Veterans in the U.S. today are mostly male and two-thirds are aged 50 or older. In a population that is currently evenly split in its preferences for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney for president, veterans stand out for their 24-point preference for Romney. About a fourth of men are veterans, and it is their strong skew toward Romney that essentially creates the GOP candidate's leading position among men today. Among nonveteran men, Obama and Romney are essentially tied.

Why veterans are so strong in their preference for the Republican presidential candidate is not clear. Previous Gallup analysis has suggested that two processes may be at work. Men who serve in the military may become socialized into a more conservative orientation to politics as a result of their service. Additionally, men who in the last decades have chosen to enlist in the military may have a more Republican orientation to begin with.

Veterans' strong preference for Romney in this election occurs even though Romney himself is not a military veteran -- though Obama shares this nonveteran status. This will be the first election since World War II in which neither major-party candidate is a veteran.

Barring unforeseen developments such as the re-institution of the military draft, the proportion of the male population in this country that will have served in the armed forces will decrease in the years ahead as the older population dominated by veterans dies off. These data suggest that Democrats could get an overall boost from this demographic phenomenon as these apparently reliable Republican voters become a smaller and smaller proportion of the population.




Poll: Romney leads Obama among Veterans

As Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama take a campaign break to pay tribute on Memorial Day, a poll released Monday indicates the presumptive GOP presidential nominee has a big lead over Obama among veterans.

Fifty-eight percent of veterans support Romney, while 34% back the president, according to a new Gallup survey.

In recent weeks, polls have indicated significant gender gap between Obama and Romney, with woman more favorable to the president and men leaning more towards Romney.

Interestingly, the new poll shows that Romney's male advantage may be attributed to his lead among veterans, given that one in four men in the United States have served in the military. When taking into account only non-veteran men, Obama and Romney are essentially tied, the poll shows.

Among non-veterans overall (both men and women), however, Obama holds a four-percentage point advantage, 48%-44%, over his Republican rival.

Neither Romney nor Obama have military records, making the 2012 election the first race with non-veterans as candidates since the 1944 showdown between Franklin Roosevelt and Thomas Dewey.

To commemorate the Memorial holiday, Romney will make an appearance today with Sen. John McCain at the Veterans Museum and Memorial Center in San Diego, California, while President Barack Obama attends ceremonies at Arlington National Cemetery and the Vietnam Veterans Memorial on the National Mall.

Gallup pulled its data from its daily tracking survey between April 11 and May 24, with a random sample of 43,352 adults questioned by telephone. Of the sample, 7,133 were veterans. The poll's sampling error is plus or minus two percentage points.



Sources: CNN, Gallup, Youtube

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Hillary Clinton Trumps Sarah Palin In Favorability Polls



















Hillary Clinton Nudges Sarah Palin For Most Admired



Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the most admired woman in America, barely edging out former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll out Wednesday.

When Gallup asked 1,025 adults nationwide to name the woman they admire most, 16 percent picked Clinton. Palin was the only other woman to be mentioned by at least 10 percent, being selected by 15 percent of those surveyed.

Daytime talk show host Oprah Winfrey came in third with 8 percent, edging out first lady Michelle Obama who got 7 percent.

Rounding out the top 10 were former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Queen Elizabeth II, who both received 2 percent, along with former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, poet Maya Angelou, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Elin Nordegren Woods, wife of golfer Tiger Woods — all of whom received 1 percent.

Clinton has been named most admired woman by the poll 14 times, going back to her time as first lady. Only then-first lady Laura Bush in 2001 and Mother Teresa in 1995 and 1996 have been able to knock Clinton from her perch, though Palin came close.

President Barack Obama ran away with the competition for most admired man, receiving the endorsement of 30 percent of those polled.

Former President George W. Bush came in second with 4 percent, topping former South African President Nelson Mandela’s 3 percent.

Fox News host Glenn Beck, Pope Benedict XVI, the Rev. Billy Graham and Microsoft founder Bill Gates all received 2 percent. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), former President George H.W. Bush, former President Bill Clinton and Tiger Woods received support from 1 percent of those polled. Clinton and Woods tied for 10th place.



Sources: Politico, USA Today, Gallup Report

Friday, December 11, 2009

Obama's Losing Low Income White Voters Too...Its True!









































Obama losing support in odd place. Politics Fix: A Hardball panel talks about the reduction in support by non-college educated white voters for President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy




Is Pres. Obama moving more towards the "right" to keep White Voter support?

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy







Poll: Pres. Obama faces "White Flight"



Just 39 percent of white Americans now approve of President Obama's job performance, a steep drop-off of support since he was inaugurated in January, according to the latest Gallup Poll.

In his first full week in office, starting Jan. 26, just over six in 10 white people gave him their approval. Now that number is down to under four in 10, indicating a net drop of 22 points.

Black voters, meanwhile, have continued to support Obama to the tune of approximately 90 percent. And Democrats and liberals give Obama approval ratings of above 80 percent.

"Though he maintains widespread loyalty among Democrats, the small loss in support he has seen from his fellow partisans seems to be exclusively from white Democrats," Gallup's finding says.

The most recent survey of 3,611 adults has a 2 percent margin of error.





Pres. Obama's Approval Slide Finds Whites Down to 39%



Since the start of his presidency, U.S. President Barack Obama's approval rating has declined more among non-Hispanic whites than among nonwhites, and now, fewer than 4 in 10 whites approve of the job Obama is doing as president.

Obama last week fell below 50% approval in Gallup Daily tracking for the first time in his presidency, both in daily three-day rolling averages and in Gallup Daily tracking results aggregated weekly.

In his first full week in office (Jan. 26-Feb. 1), an average of 66% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing, including 61% of non-Hispanic whites and 80% of nonwhites. In the most recent week, spanning Nov. 16-22 interviewing, his approval rating averaged 49% overall, 39% among whites, and 73% among nonwhites. Thus, since the beginning of his presidency, his support has dropped 22 points among whites, compared with a 7-point loss among nonwhites.

Given the 17-point drop in his approval rating among all U.S. adults, it follows that Obama's support has declined among all major demographic and attitudinal subgroups, with one notable exception -- blacks.

Blacks' support for Obama has averaged 93% during his time in office, and has been at or above 90% nearly every week during his presidency. Thus, part of the reason Obama's support among nonwhites has not dropped as much as his support among other groups is because of his consistent support from blacks. (With Hispanics' approval rating down five points, greater declines among Asians, Native Americans, and those of mixed races account for his total seven-point drop among nonwhites.)

The accompanying table shows how Obama's approval rating has changed by subgroup from his first full week in office to the most recent week. The only subgroup showing a greater change than whites is Republicans, down 24 points during this time. Independents' approval of Obama has declined nearly as much (down 18 points), whereas support among Democrats is down only 6 points.

Obama's strongest support comes from blacks, Democrats, and liberals -- all of whom give him approval ratings above 80%. He maintains solid support of more than 60% from nonwhites, Hispanics, and young adults.




View Larger Map


Sources: Gallup Report, Politico, MSNBC, Google Maps

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Gallup Report Chief Defends Polling Results On Pres. Obama...Its True





















The Value of Daily Tracking


It’s not unusual for politicians to react to polls. I’ve certainly seen it many times over the years, particularly when elected representatives or candidates are confronted with poll results they don’t like.

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs was asked Tuesday about Gallup Daily poll results showing a drop in President Obama’s job approval rating. According to news reports, Gibbs responded with some critical remarks and unusual analogies.

I’m certain Gibbs didn’t intend to impugn the value of presidential job approval polls in general. It appears he was reacting more to the fact that the president’s approval numbers are not stable, but, in fact, in a period of some change. More specifically, Gibbs was reacting to our report Monday highlighting the fact that, while there was a short-term positive uptick in Obama’s job approval ratings after his Afghanistan speech last week, his ratings through the weekend fell back.

But this type of movement is the nature of the beast. Gibbs said that if Gallup were his EKG, he would visit his doctor. Well, I think the doctor might ask him what’s going on in his life that would cause his EKG to be fluctuating so much. There is, in fact, a lot going on at the moment -- the healthcare bill, the jobs summit, the Copenhagen Climate Conference, and Afghanistan.

We live in a representative democracy. Our politicians are accountable to the people. Certainly the accountability that matters most is on Election Day. But keeping tabs on the people’s views of their elected representatives between elections is vitally important – and something in which the people of the country are demonstrably interested. We at Gallup are fortunate to have the capability to interview random samples of Americans on a daily basis. This helps us closely monitor the ways in which presidential actions are being received by the national constituency.

Of course, it's not just Gallup that finds this important. I’m sure the White House was just as interested as we were in how the president’s major speech at West Point last week played to the American public. Our tracking helped provide the answer.

Obama is set to travel to Oslo, Norway, to receive the Nobel Peace Prize. The White House is probably just as interested as we are in how the American public is going to react to this event. Our tracking will give us the answer -- both in the short-term and in the long-term. (And I’m sure the Obama campaign in 2008 paid a great deal of attention to their own tracking polls measuring how his candidacy was doing as the events of the campaign rocketed across the news each day.)

The foundation of the tracking poll is state-of-the-art, sound scientific sampling methodology, as is the same with all of our Gallup polling. Gallup reports presidential job approval using a three-day rolling average. Users are, of course, free to make whatever use they would like of the daily tracking information. The same pertains to their use of daily stock market reports, daily Nielsen ratings of television shows, or any other frequent measure.

For those interested in trends over a longer period than the three-day average reported daily, Gallup aggregates job approval on a weekly basis and reports weekly demographic breakouts.






Doing the Math on Obama's Job Approval Rating



A couple of readers have asked about the math in my colleague Jeff Jones' recent analysis of race differences in President Obama's job approval rating. In the story, Jeff points out that Obama's overall approval rating is 49%, while his approval among whites is 39% and among nonwhites is 73%.

The readers have apparently taken the sample sizes for whites and nonwhites given in the "Survey Methods" box at the end of story, multiplied these Ns by the group's respective approval ratings and calculated an average. The results give an average approval rating lower than the actual 49%.

The sample sizes given at the end of the article are the actual unweighted Ns for each group. The reported results, as is the case for almost all national polls done by Gallup and others, are based on weighted results, which take into account sampling variations as compared to U.S. census estimates. Because nonwhites are usually underrepresented in national samples, the final results weighted by U.S. census parameters will give the nonwhites a higher weighted representation and the whites a lower weighted representation. The weighted N for whites is 2,606, and for nonwhites 1,014. Doing the math on these weighted Ns yields the 49% overall approval rating.





Pres. Obama's Approval Slide Finds Whites Down to 39%


Obama last week fell below 50% approval in Gallup Daily tracking for the first time in his presidency, both in daily three-day rolling averages and in Gallup Daily tracking results aggregated weekly.

In his first full week in office (Jan. 26-Feb. 1), an average of 66% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing, including 61% of non-Hispanic whites and 80% of nonwhites. In the most recent week, spanning Nov. 16-22 interviewing, his approval rating averaged 49% overall, 39% among whites, and 73% among nonwhites. Thus, since the beginning of his presidency, his support has dropped 22 points among whites, compared with a 7-point loss among nonwhites.

Given the 17-point drop in his approval rating among all U.S. adults, it follows that Obama's support has declined among all major demographic and attitudinal subgroups, with one notable exception -- blacks.

Blacks' support for Obama has averaged 93% during his time in office, and has been at or above 90% nearly every week during his presidency. Thus, part of the reason Obama's support among nonwhites has not dropped as much as his support among other groups is because of his consistent support from blacks. (With Hispanics' approval rating down five points, greater declines among Asians, Native Americans, and those of mixed races account for his total seven-point drop among nonwhites.)

The accompanying table shows how Obama's approval rating has changed by subgroup from his first full week in office to the most recent week. The only subgroup showing a greater change than whites is Republicans, down 24 points during this time. Independents' approval of Obama has declined nearly as much (down 18 points), whereas support among Democrats is down only 6 points.

Obama's strongest support comes from blacks, Democrats, and liberals -- all of whom give him approval ratings above 80%. He maintains solid support of more than 60% from nonwhites, Hispanics, and young adults.

A Closer Look at Race and Party

One reason Obama may have maintained support among blacks is their overwhelming affiliation with the Democratic Party. This is not a sufficient explanation, though, because Obama's approval rating has dropped among Democrats even as it has held steady among blacks.

In fact, it appears as though Obama's relatively small loss in support among Democrats has come exclusively from white Democrats. In late January/early February, Obama averaged 87% approval among white Democrats and 90% approval among nonwhite Democrats. Now, his approval rating among white Democrats is 76%, down 11 points, but is essentially the same (if not a little higher) at 92% among nonwhite Democrats.

Bottom Line

Obama won the Democratic nomination and the presidency with strong support from blacks and other racial minorities. In fact, according to exit polls and Gallup's final pre-election estimates, he won the election despite losing by double digits to John McCain among white voters.

Those patterns of support seem to have persisted into his presidency, with his support among whites starting out lower and dropping faster than his support among nonwhites. And though he maintains widespread loyalty among Democrats, the small loss in support he has seen from his fellow partisans seems to be exclusively from white Democrats.

It is important to note that this pattern is not unique to Obama. For example, Bill Clinton averaged 55% job approval during his presidency, including 52% among whites but a much higher 76% among nonwhites and 82% among blacks.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 3,611 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Nov. 16-22, 2009, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 2,879 non-Hispanic whites, the maximum margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 732 nonwhites, the maximum margin of error is ±5 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.



Sources: Gallup Report, Gallup.com

Obama's Gallup Poll Approval Ratings Slip To 47%...Gibbs' Remarks




































Gibbs: Poll like a 6-year-old


The White House lashed out at the Gallup Poll on Tuesday after the survey's daily tracking numbers showed President Obama's approval rating dropping to a new low of 47 percent.

Asked for a response to Monday's tracking poll, which placed Obama's approval numbers among the lowest of any recent president in December of his first year in office, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs mocked the reliability of the widely respected polling firm.

"I tell you, if I was a heart patient and Gallup was my EKG, I'd visit my doctor," Gibbs said. "If you look back, I think five days ago, there was an 11-point spread, now there's a 1-point spread. I mean, I'm sure a 6-year-old with a crayon could do something not unlike that. I don't put a lot of stake in, never have, in the EKG that is the daily Gallup trend."

He added: "I don't pay a lot of attention to the meaninglessness of it."

Gallup's tracking poll showed an uptick in Obama's numbers last week following his speech outlining a new strategy for the war in Afghanistan. But in Monday's polling release, Gallup's Jeffrey M. Jones wrote: "Any slight bump in support Obama received coincident with his new Afghanistan policy proved to be very short-lived, as his approval rating returned to below the majority level by the weekend and slipped further to 47 percent in Dec. 4-6 polling."





Gibbs slams Gallup poll showing record low approval for Obama

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs took a swipe Tuesday at a Gallup poll showing President Obama’s approval at a low point for his presidency.

The poll, released Monday, put the president’s job approval rating at 47 percent – a figure that Fox News correspondent Major Garrett noted, at Mr. Gibbs’ Tuesday meeting with reporters, “is the lowest of any president dating back to [Harry] Truman at this stage of his presidency.”

In a blame-the-messenger moment, the press secretary, citing swings in Mr. Obama’s approval ratings in Gallup daily tracking data, said: “I am sure a 6-year-old with a crayon could do something not unlike that.”

Gibbs continued: “I don’t put a lot of stake in, never have, in the EKG that is the daily Gallup trend. I don’t pay a lot of attention to the meaninglessness of it.”

The Monitor has asked Gallup for comment. If the polling firm gives one, we will report it here.

Poll numbers bounce around, affected by events in the country and the world. But they do provide a rough guide to the clout a president has in getting his legislative program through Congress.

Falling among friends and enemies

Since November, when Obama’s approval rating was 53 percent, his poll numbers have fallen three percentage points among Democrats, seven points among independents, and four points among Republicans, Gallup reported Monday.

Gallup noted that so far in December Obama has averaged 50 percent job approval – similar to the averages of two presidents who took office when the economy was struggling, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. Other recent presidents, who took office in better economic times, had approval ratings of 57 or more in the December of their first terms.

Worse than Reagan in December 1981

Here are the first-year December approval figures for recent presidents, according to Gallup.

Dwight Eisenhower, 69 percent
John Kennedy, 77 percent
Richard Nixon, 59 percent
Jimmy Carter, 57 percent
Ronald Reagan, 49 percent
George H.W. Bush, 71 percent
Bill Clinton, 53 percent
George W. Bush, 86 percent




Sources: Gallup Poll, Politico, Christian Science Monitor, New Yorker Mag., Daily Intel

Monday, July 27, 2009

Charlotte, NC's Next Mayor Will More Than Likely, Probably Be....John Lassiter





























Rivals tout Leadership, Experience

(Charlotte Mayoral candidates Anthony Foxx (D) and John Lassiter (R) unofficially kick off city races; topics include police, jobs, streetcars.)


They talked about streetcars, cops and jobs. But leadership and experience were the main themes as Charlotte's two leading mayoral candidates made their case Tuesday night to be Charlotte's first new mayor in 14 years.

On a night when city races unofficially kicked off, Democrat Anthony Foxx and Republican John Lassiter made their pitches to an audience of about 50 residents of uptown's Third Ward.

“I'm not coming to you as a leader interested simply in recasting the same old ideas,” said Foxx, 38.

Lassiter, 54, ticked off a list of efforts he helped champion, from the uptown arts complex to the Metropolitan development to a summer jobs program for kids.

“That ain't charisma, but that's leadership,” he said in reply to a question.

As the two took questions from the crowd at the Gateway YMCA on West Trade Street, across town in east Charlotte residents grilled 14 City Council candidates at the Hickory Grove recreation center.

The forums were the first since the fall slate of candidates was set this month. For many, it will be a short election season.

In Sept. 15 primaries, voters will choose a Republican mayoral nominee, narrow a field of 14 at-large candidates to eight, and elect three district members who will be unopposed in November.

In the mayor's race, Lassiter and Foxx are trying to succeed seven-term incumbent Pat McCrory, a Republican. Lassiter is a heavy favorite to win the GOP primary over Martin Davis and Jack Stratton, who were not invited to Tuesday's forum.

The fall campaign promises to be the most competitive in two decades. How competitive could become clearer this week as both release fundraising reports. This month, Foxx announced he had raised a quarter-million dollars.

Both candidates are at-large council members. Foxx was first elected in 2005. Lassiter has served since 2003.

Foxx portrayed himself as a candidate of new ideas. He called for diversifying the economy, making every corner of the city “a great place to live,” and working better with the state and other governments.

“One mistake we've made in the past,” he said, “is we've always framed Charlotte's need in terms of Charlotte. We've got to frame it in terms of North Carolina.”

Lassiter is a former neighborhood leader and school board member. He touted his involvement in economic development efforts including South Tryon Street's new cultural complex, the NASCAR Hall of Fame and the mixed-use Metropolitan development on the site of the old Midtown Square mall.

“That's the kind of things that are going to change the dynamic of this city,” he said. “These are ... evidence of my commitment to make things happen in Charlotte.”

Both described themselves as boosters of a proposed streetcar that would run down Trade Street through Third Ward and eventually along Central Avenue. Foxx chided his opponent for not voting to include about $8 million in the city budget to study the project.

“When you support something, you stand behind it,” Foxx said.

Lassiter said later that, faced with uncertain revenues for the project, he wanted to put the money in reserve.

Both candidates pledged to fight crime and applauded the federal government's decision to award the city 50 new police officers. Lassiter said crime had become personal. His son's roommate, he said, was recently hit on the head with a gun and mugged uptown.

Police have since promised to increase visibility in the area, he said.

“This is one of the safest parts of the city,” Lassiter said. “But it's perceived as one of the most dangerous.”

Foxx not only trumpeted his support for proposals to put even more police officers on the street, but his 2006 vote to hire more officers than even the city manager had asked for – and more than recent councils had approved.

“That is the kind of commitment I've made to you the previous leadership wasn't making,” he said.

To Lassiter, leadership is what the contest is all about.

“At the end of the day,” he said, “this race is about putting experienced leadership to work for Charlotte.”





Lassiter-Foxx, Who's ahead in the Polls?


Republican mayoral candidate John Lassiter found some good news in a recent poll. But how good was it?

Cornerstone Solutions, a Raleigh-based polling firm, found that Lassiter leads Democrat Anthony Foxx, 42 percent to 26 percent, with 32 percent undecided. The findings are based on an automated phone survey of 401 Charlotteans.

A poll for Foxx, meanwhile, shows the race a dead heat.

Rule number 1: Be wary of polls done by a campaign for their candidate. Rule number 2: Be wary of all political polls, especially without several to go by and compare.

Cornerstone is a Republican consulting firm that also does polling. "We have no horse in this race," says partner Chris Sinclair of Raleigh.

Foxx campaign manager Bruce Clark questions Cornerstone's methodology. For example, while 34 percent of Charlotte voters are black, less than 14 percent of those in the Cornerstone survey identified themselves as African American. Almost 12 percent refused to disclose their race. Black voters are more likely to vote Democratic.

"Our poll," says Clark, "more accurately represents the breakdown of voters in the city."

Sinclair stands by his sample. He says part of the discrepancy could lie with those who refused to answer the race question. And he says his statisticians weighted the results based on the number of registered voters.

"We weighted it appropriately and feel good about the outcomes," he says.

One advantage of sites like realclearpolitics.com is that they present a number of polls on the same race over time, showing patterns.

MAYORAL FORUM TUESDAY

Foxx and Lassiter will talk about their views of uotown Tuesday night at the Third Ward neighborhood meeting at the Gateway YMCA, 900 W. Trade St. It starts at 7 p.m.




View Larger Map

Sources: Charlotte Observer, Charmeck.org, votelassiter.com, www.anthonyfoxx.com, Google Maps

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Nearly Five Million Adults Without Health Care Insurance Since Fall Of 2008...Mostly Hispanics & Low Income Citizens






























Huffington Post----


As President Barack Obama addressed the nation tonight, a new survey provides a boost to his claim that the health care system is at a perilous place and in need of reform. Since September of last year, nearly five million adults have lost their insurance.

A survey of more than 29,000 individuals in June by Gallup shows that 16 percent of Americans over the age of 18 are currently without health insurance. That number reflects what the survey's authors describe as a "small but measurable uptick in the percentage of uninsured adults."

Indeed, the average number of uninsured adults recorded by Gallup in 2008 was 14.8 percent. In September 2008, the monthly total recorded was at a yearly low of 13.9 percent.

While the difference in percentage may seem small, the aggregate number of additional uninsured is vast.

According to 2007 U.S. Census data, the population of those 18 years or older stood at 228,196,823. By using that figure, in September of 2008, the number of uninsured adults would have totaled approximately 31.7 million. Today, the figure stands at 36.5 million -- meaning that 4.8 million adults have, in less than a year, lost their insurance coverage.

That said, the percentage of uninsured adults stood at 16.6 percent in May 2009, meaning that the situation has improved slightly but still remains dire.

Digging deeper into the numbers, one gets the sense of just how tricky a political situation the health care debate poses for both parties. The demographic that stands to gain the most from an increase in insurance coverage happens to represent the fastest-expanding voting bloc. More than 41 percent of Hispanic Americans are uninsured, Gallup reports, which is by far the largest segment of the U.S. population. The next highest groups are those who make less than $36,000 a year (28.6 percent uninsured) and those aged 18 to 29 (27.6 percent).

It is hard not to see the benefits for the political party that steps up to help resolve the health care problems of millions of Hispanic and young Americans. Just as, conversely, it is conceivable that the party that is blamed for obstructing comprehensive reform could suffer serious consequences at the polls.

It should be noted just how comprehensive the Gallup is in recording this data. Officially titled the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, the study involved conducting at least 1,000 tracking interviews each day and 178,000 since the beginning of the year. The maximum margin of sampling error is plus-or-minus one percentage point.


Sources: Huffington Post, Gallup.com