North Carolina No Longer Ranked 2012 Swing State; Now Listed As Toss-Up State (NY Times Analysis)

Explaining The Times’s Battleground State Ratings

Six months before Election Day, nine states that President Obama carried four years ago are now firmly up for grabs in the latest New York Times ranking of key battleground states, while Mitt Romney holds an early advantage in two other states the president won in 2008.

As the general election race intensifies, Mr. Obama begins with a slim edge in several critical states and has a variety of paths to winning re-election, according to the Times analysis of electoral votes.

But there are considerable opportunities for Mr. Romney, whose candidacy is in a position of strength in enough states where a victory could deny the president a second term.

The Times ratings, which will be reviewed periodically throughout the campaign, find nine states are locked in the tossup category: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

In the quest to win the necessary 270 electoral votes, the president has 185 solidly on the Democratic side and Mr. Romney has 158 in safe Republican territory.

The analysis finds 115 electoral votes in the tossup category, with 32 leaning Democratic and 48 leaning Republican.

The Times rankings are based on interviews with Republican and Democratic strategists and the economic climate, political volatility, polling and electoral history in each state.

Here is a brief rationale for the current collection of toss-up states:

Colorado:

The president’s victory here in 2008 was among his favorites, after the state had voted Republican in eight of the nine prior presidential races. A wariness of big government is testing Mr. Obama this time, but Mr. Romney faces his own challenge appealing to independents and women, whose support was critical to Democratic wins in races for the Senate and governor in 2010.

Florida:

A wave of home foreclosures and a sour economy has complicated Mr. Obama’s path to a repeat victory here.

A growing number of conservative retirees offer Mr. Romney hope, but the outcome could hinge on whether he can win over Hispanic voters, particularly younger Cuban Americans in southern Florida and Puerto Ricans in central Florida.

Iowa:

The state that paved Mr. Obama’s path to the presidency could complicate his re-election, despite an economy that is more robust than many other states. Mr. Romney faces a challenge of exciting evangelical voters who did not support him earlier this year at the Iowa caucuses. In a close race, these six electoral votes are critical to both sides.

New Hampshire:

The president is leading in some early polls, but the state is too volatile to make any predictions at this point.

Mr. Romney has been seen as a favorite son, having been governor in the state next door, Massachusetts.

The Republican gains in 2010 have created a backlash among some Democrats in a state that will be a backdrop for the presidential campaign.

Nevada:

The Romney campaign has a ready-made laboratory to argue that the policies of the Obama administration have not worked, particularly in a state with the nation’s highest rates of home foreclosure and unemployment.

But the president is traveling to the state again and again, hoping his appeal to Hispanic and lower-income voters will deliver the state again.

Ohio:

It is hard to picture Mr. Romney winning the White House without Ohio.

An improving economy could help Mr. Obama, particularly with a revival in the auto industry, but the state’s conservative leanings still pose a significant challenge.

It will likely break late, with neither candidate winning the early enthusiasm race.

Pennsylvania:

Republicans have lost the last five presidential elections here, but it is not an automatic lock for Mr. Obama. Democrats have an edge in voter registration, but new voting laws concern party leaders.

This state could eventually lean Democratic as the campaign moves along, but the president has yet to prove that the key independent voters will be on his side.

Virginia:

The population shifts in Northern Virginia are changing the state’s political demographics. The president carried the state by seven percentage points in 2008, but that margin belies the true fight underway in the state this time.

This is one of the states Mr. Romney needs to put back in the Republican column if he is to be elected.

Wisconsin:

The political climate here is volatile, given the June recall election of Gov. Scott Walker, a Republican.

A flood of outside money – pro-union and antiunion – has created a charged dynamic.

The president has an early edge over Mr. Romney, but the environment is too uncertain to safely move the state into the Democratic-leaning column.

The Times rankings also include four states that lean Democratic, including Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Maine, which allows its electoral votes to be divided and Mr. Romney is fighting for at least one.

In this group, Michigan and New Mexico are the most competitive and could become true tossups as the race progresses.

In an interview last year, Mr. Romney declined to commit to competing aggressively in his native Michigan, saying he would make his determination on the state of the race rather than family sentiment.

This state is worth watching closely.

The Times rankings also include four states that are leaning Republican, including Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina.

(One electoral vote in Nebraska, which also allows its allocation to be divided, is also included in this category, after Mr. Obama won it in 2008.)

In this group, North Carolina is the most competitive and could become a toss-up as the campaign develops.

Four years ago, Mr. Obama narrowly carried the state and is aggressively targeting it again.

Arizona is another state to watch, with the president’s re-election team sizing it up over the summer to see if it is worth making a full investment in the fall.


View Larger Map


Sources: AP, ABC News, AlJazeera English, CBS News, CNN, McClatchy Newspapers, NY Times, Youtube, Google Maps

Jeffrey Toobin Is Right! Individual Mandate Makes Health Care Law Unconstitutional

CNN's Jeffrey Toobin is extremely Cocky however he's right about the Health Care Law. The Individual Mandate makes it Unconstitutional.

Here's why.

Its highly possible that come June the SCOTUS will strike down Pres. Obama's Affordable Health Care Act.

NOT because its a Bad Law because the Affordable Health Care Act is in all actuality a really Good Universal Law.

For example the Affordable Health Care Act prevents Health Insurers from Denying Coverage to Citizens with Pre-Existing Medical Conditions & allows Children to remain on their Parent's Health Insurance plans until the age of 26.

The Law also requires States to provide more Medicaid/ Medicare Coverage & Quality Patient Care for Low Income & Elderly Citizens.
i.e., Medicaid Expansion.

However....

Just because a Law is Good does not mean it is Constitutional.

And SCOTUS Justices are Legally Bound to rule solely based on the U.S. Constitution & Similar Federal Case Law.

According to the Preamble & U.N. Declaration of Human Rights, Health Care is in fact a Basic Human Right but Congress does NOT have the Broad Legal Authority to Mandate each Individual Citizen in America to take Personal Responsibility for their Own Health Care Insurance via a TAX.

That's Right!

The Individual Mandate is a TAX!

According to the 16th Amendment Congress does have the Legal Authority to TAX but it Can't use its Taxing Authority to Penalize American Citizens for NOT Purchasing Health Care Insurance.

If Pres. Obama had included a Public Option or Single Payer Option, his Affordable Health Care would be probably be very hard for the SCOTUS to strike down.

But in the "Spirit of Bi-Partisanship" he allowed 2 GOP Senators, (Olympia Snowe & Susan Collins), to talk him into excluding a Public Option & Single Payer in exchange for the Individual Mandate.

Bad Political Move!

Olympia Snowe & Susan Collins have both served in Congress much Longer than Pres. Obama.
They're Slick Politicians who knew exactly what they were doing!

Requesting that Pres. Obama exclude a Public Option & Single Payer in exchange for the Individual Mandate was Politically Strategic & Destructive for the Affordable Health Care Law because Snowe & Collins knew a Mandate would make this Law Unconstitutional.

A Shrewd, Dirty Political Move pulled by 2 Seasoned, Female, GOP Senators!

Now Suddenly two years later, Senator Olympia Snowe claims she was "against the Individual Mandate".

Please STOP Lying Olympia!

If you were against the Individual Mandate then why did you Vote "YES" on passage of the Health Care Law?

Almost immediately After the Affordable Health Care Law was Authorized by Congress, Pres. Obama's Administration started granting Waivers to Certain Large Corporations giving them Legal Permission to Opt-Out of Providing Health Care Insurance to their Employees without being Penalized.

This Action Hurt the Law's Viability even more so because granting Corporations Waivers to Opt-Out of the Law gave the Appearance of Proprietorship or Enforcement of the Law based on Economic Status.

Is it Fair to force Smaller, Less Profitable Companies to provide Health Care Insurance for their Employees, while allowing Larger, More Profitable Companies to Opt-Out?

Thus the valid concerns mentioned in this post about Pres. Obama's Health Care Law, means the Probability of this law being struck down by the High Court remains a very likely possibility.

Its not yet clear if the Affordable Health Care Act can stand alone without the Individual Mandate.

I personally believe the Law can Survive without the Individual Mandate but only with a Public Option.

Its also not clear if the entire Affordable Health Care Act will be struck down or just the Individual Mandate.

What is clear is that although the Affordable Health Care Law is a good law, Congress may have overstepped its Broad Legal Authority by Including a New Tax as a Penalty within this Law.

Stay Tuned.

SCOTUS Justices will release their decision & Opinions on the Health Care Law Challenge case in June of this year.



Toobin: 'This Law Looks Like It's Going To Be Struck Down'

CNN Legal Analyst Jeffrey Toobin, following Supreme Court arguments on President Obama's health care law, said on CNN that based on what he heard inside the Court, things didn't look good for proponents of the law.

"This was a train wreck for the Obama administration," he said. "This law looks like it's going to be struck down. I'm telling you, all of the predictions including mine that the justices would not have a problem with this law were wrong... if I had to bet today I would bet that this court is going to strike down the individual mandate."

Toobin added that he felt that U.S. Solicitor General Donald Verrilli simply wasn't prepared for the conservative justices.

"I don't know why he had a bad day," he said. "He is a good lawyer, he was a perfectly fine lawyer in the really sort of tangential argument yesterday. He was not ready for the answers for the conservative justices."

Toobin also said he thought Justice Kennedy, the perennial swing vote, was a "lost cause" for supporters of the health care reform law.


Sources: CNN, Fox News, TPM, Youtube

The Sports World Analyzes Tiger's Press Conference

Breaking sports news video. MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL highlights and more.

Don't Listen to Stephen A. Smith: Believe Tiger Woods' Apology


We’ve had months to speculate, spread rumors, read tabloids, and talk trash.

Tiger Woods did some bad, bad things, and deserved every bit of criticism directed his way. And even he admitted that.

He admitted he was selfish, irresponsible, and foolish. He admitted everything.

He spoke in front of cameras, in front of a room full of people, and he came prepared. He used written words on a piece of paper as a guide, and while it sounded as if he’d read it in front of a mirror a hundred times, it still felt genuine.

But not according to Stephen A. Smith, aka “I’ll say anything that gets me quoted”.

Smith is a joke, always has been, and always will be. He has no right to even begin to question Wood’s motives or beliefs, let alone whether he’s actually genuine.

Smith called Woods’ open apology “fake” and “phony”, and said that he was a robot, merely reading a script.

He even questioned what world everyone else was living in, because they clearly weren’t living in the same world he was.

Thank God for that.

Smith is doing exactly what we expect of him. He’s kicking a man when he’s down. He’s “speaking his mind”, without actually using it.

He’s opening that stupid, loose-tongued mouth for the public to hear all of his ridiculous comments. Because he thinks he’s entitled to it, because he gets paid to do it, and because he loves to go against the grain.

Well, even ESPN’s Skip Bayless would agree that, while it will get you popularity (good or bad), it’s not always best to argue or disagree just to do so.

Tiger Woods braved the cold stares of all the people sitting on their couches across America. The guy is in rehab, trying to repair his marriage, his self esteem, his ego, and his marriage.

He doesn’t need people telling him it’s all for nothing. That he’s a fake. That his words weren’t honest or sincere.

I watched Woods read from a piece of paper, plead (or scold) the media, and telling them not to follow his wife and children.

I wasn’t offended by anything he said. Rather, I was impressed.

He covered all the bases, made all the appropriate apologies, and asked in his final statement, for all of America to think about one day being able to look at him as they once had.

As a role model, a good person, and a family man.

He made his mistakes, and he’s paying dearly for them.

It’s time to accept his apology for what it was: simply a step in the process, something he had to do, and unless we can prove it to be fake, a sincere and genuine piece of the puzzle that leads to him putting his life back together.

Humpy Dumpty fell off the wall, and he’s trying to get back up again. Let’s not let people like Steven A. Smith abuse their power and thwart those attempts.

More, let’s help Woods patch things up. Be patient, wait for him to figure it out. He may not play at the Masters. He may not even play this year.

But that’s besides the point. He’s a man, a husband, and a father before a golfer. And even Stephen A. Smith should be able to respect that. Emphasis on should.





Full Text Of Woods Statement



Good morning, and thank you for joining me. Many of you in this room are my friends. Many of you in this room know me. Many of you have cheered for me or you've worked with me or you've supported me.

Now every one of you has good reason to be critical of me. I want to say to each of you, simply and directly, I am deeply sorry for my irresponsible and selfish behavior I engaged in.

I know people want to find out how I could be so selfish and so foolish. People want to know how I could have done these things to my wife Elin and to my children. And while I have always tried to be a private person, there are some things I want to say.

Elin and I have started the process of discussing the damage caused by my behavior. As Elin pointed out to me, my real apology to her will not come in the form of words; it will come from my behavior over time. We have a lot to discuss; however, what we say to each other will remain between the two of us.

I am also aware of the pain my behavior has caused to those of you in this room. I have let you down, and I have let down my fans. For many of you, especially my friends, my behavior has been a personal disappointment. To those of you who work for me, I have let you down personally and professionally. My behavior has caused considerable worry to my business partners.

To everyone involved in my foundation, including my staff, board of directors, sponsors, and most importantly, the young students we reach, our work is more important than ever. Thirteen years ago, my dad and I envisioned helping young people achieve their dreams through education. This work remains unchanged and will continue to grow. From the Learning Center students in Southern California to the Earl Woods scholars in Washington, D.C., millions of kids have changed their lives, and I am dedicated to making sure that continues.

But still, I know I have bitterly disappointed all of you. I have made you question who I am and how I could have done the things I did. I am embarrassed that I have put you in this position.

For all that I have done, I am so sorry.

I have a lot to atone for, but there is one issue I really want to discuss. Some people have speculated that Elin somehow hurt or attacked me on Thanksgiving night. It angers me that people would fabricate a story like that. Elin never hit me that night or any other night. There has never been an episode of domestic violence in our marriage, ever. Elin has shown enormous grace and poise throughout this ordeal. Elin deserves praise, not blame.

The issue involved here was my repeated irresponsible behavior. I was unfaithful. I had affairs. I cheated. What I did is not acceptable, and I am the only person to blame.

I stopped living by the core values that I was taught to believe in. I knew my actions were wrong, but I convinced myself that normal rules didn't apply. I never thought about who I was hurting. Instead, I thought only about myself. I ran straight through the boundaries that a married couple should live by. I thought I could get away with whatever I wanted to. I felt that I had worked hard my entire life and deserved to enjoy all the temptations around me. I felt I was entitled. Thanks to money and fame, I didn't have to go far to find them.

I was wrong. I was foolish. I don't get to play by different rules. The same boundaries that apply to everyone apply to me. I brought this shame on myself. I hurt my wife, my kids, my mother, my wife's family, my friends, my foundation, and kids all around the world who admired me.

I've had a lot of time to think about what I've done. My failures have made me look at myself in a way I never wanted to before. It's now up to me to make amends, and that starts by never repeating the mistakes I've made. It's up to me to start living a life of integrity.

I once heard, and I believe it's true, it's not what you achieve in life that matters; it's what you overcome. Achievements on the golf course are only part of setting an example. Character and decency are what really count.

Parents used to point to me as a role model for their kids. I owe all those families a special apology. I want to say to them that I am truly sorry.

It's hard to admit that I need help, but I do. For 45 days from the end of December to early February, I was in inpatient therapy receiving guidance for the issues I'm facing. I have a long way to go. But I've taken my first steps in the right direction.

As I proceed, I understand people have questions. I understand the press wants to ask me for the details and the times I was unfaithful. I understand people want to know whether Elin and I will remain together. Please know that as far as I'm concerned, every one of these questions and answers is a matter between Elin and me. These are issues between a husband and a wife.

Some people have made up things that never happened. They said I used performance-enhancing drugs. This is completely and utterly false. Some have written things about my family. Despite the damage I have done, I still believe it is right to shield my family from the public spotlight. They did not do these things; I did.

I have always tried to maintain a private space for my wife and children. They have been kept separate from my sponsors, my commercial endorsements. When my children were born, we only released photographs so that the paparazzi could not chase them. However, my behavior doesn't make it right for the media to follow my 2½-year-old daughter to school and report the school's location. They staked out my wife and they pursued my mom. Whatever my wrongdoings, for the sake of my family, please leave my wife and kids alone.

I recognize I have brought this on myself, and I know above all I am the one who needs to change. I owe it to my family to become a better person. I owe it to those closest to me to become a better man. That's where my focus will be.

I have a lot of work to do, and I intend to dedicate myself to doing it. Part of following this path for me is Buddhism, which my mother taught me at a young age. People probably don't realize it, but I was raised a Buddhist, and I actively practiced my faith from childhood until I drifted away from it in recent years. Buddhism teaches that a craving for things outside ourselves causes an unhappy and pointless search for security. It teaches me to stop following every impulse and to learn restraint. Obviously I lost track of what I was taught.

As I move forward, I will continue to receive help because I've learned that's how people really do change. Starting tomorrow, I will leave for more treatment and more therapy. I would like to thank my friends at Accenture and the players in the field this week for understanding why I'm making these remarks today.

In therapy I've learned the importance of looking at my spiritual life and keeping in balance with my professional life. I need to regain my balance and be centered so I can save the things that are most important to me, my marriage and my children.

That also means relying on others for help. I've learned to seek support from my peers in therapy, and I hope someday to return that support to others who are seeking help. I do plan to return to golf one day, I just don't know when that day will be.

I don't rule out that it will be this year. When I do return, I need to make my behavior more respectful of the game. In recent weeks I have received many thousands of e-mails, letters and phone calls from people expressing good wishes. To everyone who has reached out to me and my family, thank you. Your encouragement means the world to Elin and me.

I want to thank the PGA Tour, Commissioner [Tim] Finchem, and the players for their patience and understanding while I work on my private life. I look forward to seeing my fellow players on the course.

Finally, there are many people in this room, and there are many people at home who believed in me. Today I want to ask for your help. I ask you to find room in your heart to one day believe in me again.

Thank you.


View Larger Map

Sources: ESPN, MSNBC, Google Maps

Obama Aimed For Independent Voters In 2010 State Of Union

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Sources: MSNBC