GOP & 2010 Black Voters: Ignore Nixon's "Southern Strategy"

"The more Negroes who register as Democrats in the South, the sooner the Negrophobe whites will quit the Democrats and become Republicans.”
Richard Nixon

GOP Should At Least Try With Black Voters


If there’s one thing we can predict with confidence about the upcoming election, it’s that Black voters will overwhelmingly vote Democrat. “This is perfectly rational political behavior—but in many ways it’s a shame,” writes Eugene Robinson in the Washington Post.

Yes, Robinson believes in the Democrats’ progressive platform, “but I also believe that in politics, as in business, competition is good. Monopolies inevitably take their customers for granted.”

Democrats have surely done that, but Republicans just haven't tried to capitalize. Their problems date back to Nixon’s “Southern strategy,” the idea that, as one strategist put it in 1970, “the more Negroes who register as Democrats in the South, the sooner the Negrophobe whites will quit the Democrats and become Republicans.”

But that was long ago, and if Republicans would at least try to address black issues, they might make real gains with suburban or socially conservative blacks. Instead, African Americans will once again back the Democratic Party, “which at least asks for our votes.”





Why Won't The GOP Compete For African American Votes?


This has been such an unpredictable political year that it's hard to have confidence in any of the forecasts for November. How unpredictable? Well, I'd like to meet the pundit or prognosticator who imagined that a major-party candidate for the U.S. Senate would begin a campaign ad by declaring, "I'm not a witch."

Christine O'Donnell's sorcery problem aside, there's one thing I can say with confidence about next month's midterm election: African Americans will vote overwhelmingly for Democratic Party candidates at every level. This is perfectly rational political behavior -- but in many ways it's a shame.

Don't misunderstand. I'm firmly convinced that the progressive agenda championed by the Democrats is much better for African Americans, and for the nation as a whole, than the conservative agenda favored by Republicans. But I also believe that in politics, as in business, competition is good. Monopolies inevitably take their customers for granted.

And this, frankly, is what Democrats have been doing with black voters for decades. As far as African Americans are concerned, the only issue is whether they'll turn out in substantial numbers for the midterm balloting. No one wonders how they'll cast their votes.

African American support for the Democratic Party hovers around 90 percent. This qualifies as monolithic, even though black Americans are increasingly diverse -- economically, socially, culturally and geographically. There are millions of affluent black suburban households who fit the demographic profile of independents or Republicans. There has been an unprecedented influx of black immigrants from Africa and the Caribbean who view the political landscape with fresh eyes. Polls show that on some hot-button social issues, such as gay marriage, many African Americans are quite conservative. You'd think that somewhere, somehow, the GOP would have managed to get a foothold.

The problem is that the Republicans haven't tried -- not seriously, at least. And it will take a lot more than appointing a figurehead like party chief Michael Steele, or nominating a surprising congressional candidate like Tim Scott in South Carolina, to overcome decades of indifference and antipathy.

The history of the Republican Party's estrangement from African Americans is well known. In 1960, Richard Nixon won 32 percent of the black vote. In 1964, Barry Goldwater -- who had opposed the landmark Civil Rights Act -- received just 6 percent of the black vote. This dramatic shift made possible Nixon's "Southern strategy," which political strategist Kevin Phillips explained to the New York Times in 1970, using some archaic terminology:

"From now on, the Republicans are never going to get more than 10 to 20 percent of the Negro vote and they don't need any more than that," Phillips said, "but Republicans would be shortsighted if they weakened enforcement of the Voting Rights Act. The more Negroes who register as Democrats in the South, the sooner the Negrophobe whites will quit the Democrats and become Republicans. That's where the votes are. Without that prodding from the blacks, the whites will backslide into their old comfortable arrangement with the local Democrats."

In other words, the idea was to capitalize on the racial fears and grievances of Southern whites -- by letting black voters drift away from the GOP and even encouraging them to stay away.

Ours is a different era, and I'm not suggesting that the old Southern strategy persists in unreconstructed form. The Republican Party's dominance among white Southerners is not based on the kind of raw, unambiguous race-baiting that we saw decades ago.

What I am saying is that the Republicans have made no serious effort to appeal to black voters. Such an initiative would begin with an acknowledgement of the specific problems that African Americans face -- including the legacy of centuries of oppression and discrimination -- and a proffer of policies to address those problems. But this would contradict the GOP's dogmatic stance that government should be severely limited in its ambition.

Democrats, at least, are much better at talking the talk. But is the Democratic Party offering any new ideas -- or even the promise of meaningful resources -- to eliminate the stubborn, multigenerational poverty and dysfunction in which far too many African Americans are trapped? Are Democrats addressing the vast gap in wealth between middle-class blacks and their white counterparts?

Given the stakes, I see no real choice for African Americans but to go to the polls in November and stick with the Democratic Party, which at least asks for our votes. The Republicans haven't offered an alternative. I wish someday they would.

eugenerobinson@washpost.com


View Larger Map


Sources: CNN, MSNBC, Newser, Washington Post, Youtube, Google Maps

Democrats Beg For Black Votes After Abandoning Black Community

Black Voters May Sway 20 House Races In 2010 Nov. Elections


On the corner of Collington Road and Route 301, a bright blue poster screams the Democratic Party's wishful thinking at passing cars: "We've got your back President Obama."

The poster, not quite big enough to qualify as a billboard, reflects an unspoken bargain between Obama and Black voters: He asks, they deliver.

Last week, Obama asked.

Polls indicate many Minority Voters are discouraged and won't turn out Nov. 2 as they did for Obama two years ago, yet a solid showing among Blacks could still swing several House, Senate and gubernatorial races, according to some analysts.

Ruy Teixeira, a political demographer for the Center for American Progress, said certain parts of the Democratic base -- particularly young voters and minorities -- typically "tune in" just before an election, and Democrats could improve their chances if they galvanize those constituencies.

"It is not at all clear that the outcome is going to be as grim for the Democrats as at least some polls suggest today," Teixeira said. "The Democrats could possibly get out of this election and still hold the House. I think it's going to be very difficult, but it is not as impossible as it might appear."

Black Voters are "Strategically Located" to impact as many as 20 House races, mostly in Southern states, explained David Bositis, a senior researcher at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, who has analyzed the black electorate for more than two decades. They also could sway more than a dozen Senate and governor's races, Bositis said.

"It's not something where the Democrats and the candidates are going to be out there yelling, 'We want the black vote,"' Bositis said. "They're going to work through the black churches, the black media."

Page Gardner, an analyst who tracks women and minority voter enthusiasm, said she has seen an uptick in interest among unmarried women, young women and minorities. If that trend continues, they could become a factor in several House races, Gardner said, pointing out that last midterm, 15 tightly contested House races were decided by roughly 2,000 votes.

"You're talking about a small number of voters that change the tide," Gardner said.

Bositis said this election could echo midterm elections in 1986, when significant black turnout helped Democrats gain House seats and take control of the Senate, and again in 1998, when Democrats picked up governorships in Alabama, South Carolina and Georgia.

Both of those elections followed events that resonated with black voters: Jesse Jackson's historic presidential campaign in 1984 and the GOP effort in 1998 to impeach President Bill Clinton.

While many Democrats are distancing themselves from Obama, the party's approach with black voters is to make the election about the president and his agenda.

University of Chicago political scientist Cathy J. Cohen said Democrats hope that by framing the election around the attacks on Obama and racial polarization arising out of the tea party movement, "black voters will mobilize in particular districts so they can tip the balance."

"I still think that black people will come out and vote for what they think is the president's agenda, which is to vote Democratic," said Cohen, author of a new book on black youth and politics, "Democracy Remixed: Black Youth and the Future of American Politics."

To that end, the Democratic National Committee is spending $3 million on ad buys in African-American media, far more than it spent on such buys in previous midterm elections. The president himself stopped by a White House briefing earlier this week for black bloggers and journalists from black-oriented media. Later this week, he will meet at the White House with the Trotter Group, a group of black newspaper columnists.

Obama also spoke at an Oct. 7 rally for Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley that drew 7,000 people to historically black Bowie State University. The school, about 20 miles east of Washington, is located in Prince George's County, Md., which, according to census data, is the nation's wealthiest majority black county -- 65.6 percent black with a median annual household income of $71,696.

The "got your back" posters stand at several major intersections in Prince George's, which also is home to Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele. "We've got your back, we've got your back," the crowd at Bowie State chanted when Obama took the stage with O'Malley and Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, who is black.

"What the other side is counting on is that this time around, you're going to stay home," Obama told the crowd. "They figure Obama's not on the ballot, you're not going to come out and vote. Well, Maryland, you have got to prove them wrong."

Whether that message is getting through to enough black Democratic voters to make a difference is an open question.

Andrew Robb, 47, of Upper Marlboro, Md., said he plans to vote and is not buying into the notion of significant Democratic losses. "The Democrats are going to prevail. I think it's a lot of hype with the Republicans," Robb said.

But Joyce Walker, 55, of Bowie, also a Democrat, said she feels Democrats "might take a big hit" because many core voters are not fully engaged.

"Most people, they're not enthusiastic about the governor's election. They're mostly enthusiastic about the president," said Walker, who does plan to vote on Nov. 2 when O'Malley faces Republican challenger Bob Ehrlich in the governor's race.

The 20 House races where black turnout could determine the winner, according to Bositis' analysis, are in 14 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.


View Larger Map


Sources: AP, WCNC, NY Times, WWLTV, Youtube, Google Maps

"Abandoned" Movie Trailer, Starring Brittany Murphy

Pictures Of Brittany Murphy In Last Movie Surface; "Abandoned" director: She "Was A Pro"



Photos of fallen star Brittany Murphy playing what would be her final movie role have emerged -- and the director who guided her in "Abandoned" is adamantly refuting claims the actress was difficult to work with.

"It hurts me to hear all this salacious stuff because my experience with Brittany was really one of my best experiences with an actress," director Michael Feifer told People.com.

"Brittany was a pro," he said. "When she needed to turn it on, she just threw a switch and she was on ... playing frantic came really easy and playing sweet came really easy."

In the film, Murphy plays a woman desperately trying to find her boyfriend when he vanishes from a hospital. During the course of the movie, London's Daily mail reported, her character, Mary Walsh, faces down threats to her life -- and her sanity.

Murphy's British screenwriter husband, Simon Monjack, also was involved in the flick, working on the actress’ hair and makeup.

"The two of them really took care of each other," Feifer told The Associated Press. "He was her teddy bear, and she was just his little princess."

Feifer hopes to release the indie thriller –- which Murphy shot in June -- in 2010.

At least one colleague who worked with her on a movie set in recent months -- while praising her work ethic -- raised concerns about the actress' health.

"She looked ill, as much as 10 pounds underweight, and she's a small person to begin with," Scott Chambers reportedly told the Los Angeles Times. "She easily could have made an excuse not to come to work, but she didn't. She said, 'I've got to get better, but I want to do this part.' "

Chambers was an executive producer on the thriller "Something Wicked."

Murphy finished shooting the flick, in which she plays a psychiatrist, just days before beginning work on "Abandoned."

After finishing "Abandoned," Murphy worked on a film called "The Caller," but left the project over what her representative described as "creative differences," People.com reports.

The 32-year-old "Clueless" and "Sin City" star died after collapsing at her Hollywood home Sunday morning.

Her husband has vociferously struck back at rumors swirling that Murphy's death was an overdose.

"I'm confident it wasn't an overdose," he told the Daily News. "She was not a drug addict."

He confirmed that investigators hauled away a trove of prescription medicines -- "but nothing else," calling reports the beauty abused drugs "rubbish."



View Larger Map


Sources: Daily Mail, AP, Youtube, NY Daily News