Gas Prices vs The 2012 Elections: Its A Huge Factor!

Gas prices fuel congressional campaign rhetoric


President Barack Obama isn’t the only candidate who has to worry about gasoline price spikes.

Take a look at members of Congress and their challengers, who are going all out to express concern about the plight of American motorists — often with personal stories of their own sticker shock.

Illinois GOP Rep. Bobby Schilling took a page from that playbook this month when he invited reporters to watch him fork over a C-note to fill up his Chevy Suburban at a Phillips 66 U-Save Mart in Moline. So did Rep. Judy Biggert (R-Ill.), who opened a recent weekly e-newsletter by bemoaning her last $58 pit stop.

Others are content just to empathize.

Hence, Republican Jason Plummer — running to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Costello (D-Ill.) — visited ConocoPhillips's Wood River refinery outside St. Louis to slam EPA policies that he blamed for driving up fuel prices. New York GOP Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle’s YouTube moment came when she gave explicit instructions on what she wanted Energy Secretary Steven Chu to tell his administration colleagues: "The American people are hurting. They need you to do something now."

Expect to hear lots of the same until November.

"This train stretches from New York City to Los Angeles with how many people have jumped on it," said Patrick DeHaan, a senior petroleum analyst at Gasbuddy.com., a fuel price tracking website. “Either you are for low gas prices or you are going to get voted out of office. Everyone running is forced to talk about it because the other party is."

There's good reason for all the gas pump bickering. A Gallup poll in March found that 65 percent of Americans think Congress and the president can take actions to control gas prices, and that 85 percent want "immediate actions to try to control the rising price of gas."

Blame is also easy to spread around. Senate Democrats tried to put Republicans on the spot in March with a floor vote to repeal oil subsidies, while House Republicans see rewards from a legislative agenda heavy on domestic drilling and embarrassing the Obama administration on the Keystone XL pipeline.

“I’m certain that with $4 gas, the American people will remember who listened to them and who didn’t,” House Speaker John Boehner said in May before passing one in a series of energy bills.

During last year’s price spikes, freshmen fanned out to meet with voters and hear their complaints about fuel costs. Wisconsin GOP Rep. Reid Ribble's visit to an Appleton gas station made local TV newscasts, as did Republican Rep. Robert Hurt's stop with Virginia farmers, where he talked up offshore development and alternative energy.

The House websites for Ribble, Scott Rigell (R-Va.) and Indiana GOP Rep. Larry Bucshon all feature gas price surveys asking people to vote on policy solutions.

Indicative of this year’s political stakes, Senate Republican candidates hoping to help their party reclaim the majority are being much more aggressive than their House counterparts with their attacks on Democrats.

Virginia Republicans, for example, have posted a video picking at the opening line of a response from Democrat Tim Kaine at a town hall event when asked about gas price spikes. "I've got to admit there's some aspects about the gas price thing that makes me scratch my head," Kaine says in the clip — a comment his campaign says was taken out of context.

Kaine’s likely opponent, former Republican Sen. George Allen, is also up with a website that allows visitors to type in their car's make and model to see how much more it costs to fill up their tank compared with when Obama came into office.

California Sen. Dianne Feinstein's long-shot Republican opponent Elizabeth Emken features a “#FeinsteinOnEmpty” hashtag on her website. She also questions Feinstein's past praise for Chu, who said in 2008 — before joining the Obama administration — that he supported Europe-style gas prices in the United States.

Democrats are in on the action too.

Indiana Democrats are squeezing Sen. Richard Lugar with a Web ad slamming the Republican over his support for a gas tax hike of $1 or more.

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) sent an email to voters in February talking up legislation he has co-sponsored that would curb oil market speculators.

He also solicited voters’ ideas on "what else you think we could do to bring down gas prices."

Sen. Claire McCaskill’s website tries to bust what she lists as six myths about gas prices (No. 5: “Nothing can be done to bring down the price of fuel”). The Missouri Democrat also promotes her call for Obama to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the second time during his term.

Democratic candidates for House seats are also going after Republican incumbents' campaign contributions from the oil and gas industry, pairing them with votes against repealing the industry’s subsidies.

Nearly identical press releases came out in late February from New Hampshire Democratic candidate Annie Kuster, who is challenging Republican Rep. Charlie Bass; Nevada state Assembly Speaker John Oceguera in his race against Rep. Joe Heck; former New York Rep. Dan Maffei in his rematch against Buerkle; and Manan Trivedi in his second attempt to unseat Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.).

"High gas prices? You can thank Washington insiders influencing Washington insiders," Trivedi posted on Twitter, where he linked to a statement criticizing Gerlach for supporting oil and gas subsidies while taking more than $132,000 in campaign contributions from the industry.

Outside groups are also weighing in on the gas price debate.

Public Campaign, a group with ties to MoveOn.org and labor unions, sponsored two weeks of cable TV ads against Republican Rep. Scott Tipton in his Western Colorado district, knocking him for taking more than $100,000 in campaign contributions from the oil and gas industry and questioning his vote against repealing the industry's subsidies.

The American Petroleum Institute has already spent generously this cycle, mostly to help Republicans, including House Energy and Commerce Chairman Fred Upton (R-Mich.), Natural Resources Chairman Doc Hastings (R-Wash.), Science Chairman Ralph Hall (R-Texas), Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Boehner. The trade group also ran radio and print ads ahead of the Senate subsidy debate in the Senate and presidential battleground states of Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia.

Karl Rove's American Crossroads is also going after vulnerable House and Senate Democrats, including $1.5 million spent so far challenging McCaskill. The attacks include a website called "The Truth About Claire" that questions her commitment to lowering gas prices.

Spokesman Nate Hodson said the group "won't be shy" when spending tens of millions more this cycle to raise the gas price issue in congressional races. "It's what voters are paying attention to right now," he said.



Sources: CBS News, Politico

Gas Prices Irk Southern Voters; High Speed Rail Badly Needed In The South!

In 2011 the GOP's Political Gimmick was "The Federal Deficit".

In 2012 its "Gas Prices".

Did you know that for decades the Federal Gov't has been paying Big Oil Companies Billions Annually in Tax Payer Money just to keep Gas Prices low?

So in essence We (Tax Payers) are paying these Blood Suckers NOT to charge us $50 & $60. a Gallon versus $2.00, $3.00 & $4.00 a Gallon.

WOW!

Which States use more Oil & Gas?

Southern States!

Which States Oppose Pres. Obama's Nationwide High Speed Rail Plans?

Southern States!

Its time to Eliminate those Federal Subsidies, Build High Speed Rail in the Southern States & Stop Depending on Foreign Oil.





Price of Gas Matters to Voters, but Doesn’t Seem to Sway Votes


Stacy Hawks is angry that the rising price of gasoline is squeezing the profits of her father’s produce company and draining the wallets of friends who drive trucks. She is angry that the government has not acted to reverse the trend.

But Ms. Hawks, 26, a North Carolina resident who describes herself as very conservative, said she does not expect the price of gas to influence her vote in November.

“What I look for in a candidate is whether or not they have experience, values, morals,” said Ms. Hawks. “Mostly, I want someone that I trust as a leader.”

There may be no number stamped more frequently on the American landscape than the price of gas. And as the average price has climbed toward $4 a gallon nationwide, it has generated abundant chatter about the threat to the economic recovery, and to incumbent politicians.

Republicans have seized on the issue to attack President Obama’s management of the economy. The president has responded with speeches defending his energy policies, including increased domestic oil production.

But there is surprisingly little evidence that gas prices deserve an outsize reputation for economic and political influence.

Studies suggest that most voters agree with Ms. Hawks: they are angry about gas prices, but other factors, like the economy and the personal qualities of candidates, ultimately determine their votes.

Gas prices influence voters indirectly, because rising prices can slow the pace of growth. But the influence is modest, because spending on oil and its derivatives makes up only a small part of the nation’s economic activity. Gas purchases account for less than 4 percent of household spending. Prices would need to increase by at least 28 percent to lift that share by a single percentage point. So far this year, they have jumped by 15 percent.

“Presidential elections are based on evaluations of presidential performance and on the performance of the economy. You can’t reduce that to one small issue,” said Alan Abramowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University. “Are gas prices part of the equation that people think about? They probably are, but only a small piece.”

Rising gas prices also make Americans less confident in the nation’s economic prospects and less approving of political leaders, according to public opinion surveys. But these, too, are small effects. One study by a political scientist estimated that the impact of changes in unemployment was 27 times greater than the impact of equivalent changes in gas prices.

In part, the difference is that Americans are divided as to whether politicians should be held responsible.

Donald J. Wheeler, a ball bearing tester from Springfield, Ohio, said people blamed the president because it was the easiest thing to do. “It’s ridiculous,” he said. “In my opinion, it’s the companies that are gouging people.”

Brian Gregory, who delivers auto parts in northern Virginia, spends about $60 most weekdays filling his station wagon. He said that he blamed Mr. Obama for failing to control prices and that the issue was a major reason he planned to vote “either for a Republican or not at all.”

“I don’t understand health care as well as I should,” he said. “Housing, I’m kind of vague on that. But this I can definitely understand.”

Gas prices exert an unrivaled hold on the public imagination. Americans spend more on gas than on almost any other single good, and the exact amount is hard to miss as the numbers spin by on the pump. It hurts to watch, but there is also little choice. People can substitute chicken for steak, but they still need to drive the same distance to work.

When prices rise, people wait to buy cars; they travel less; they buy fewer lottery tickets and spend less on child care, according to a study by Paul Edelstein and Lutz Kilian, economics professors at the University of Michigan.

Michael Wills has stopped driving weekly from his home in Fairfax, Va., to his father’s home in North Beach, Md., a distance of 50 miles. Mr. Wills, 56, said he had seen his father only a few times in recent months.

Amy Rivera, 24, of Orlando, said she shorted her electric bill last month to make sure she had enough money for gas.

And Pat Rosenbeck, 57, a restaurant owner from Franklin, Ohio, said the flow of customers had slowed as gas climbed above $3 a gallon.

The impact on happiness is even larger than the changes in spending, according to a 2010 study by researchers at the Brookings Institution, in part because people do not like uncertainty, and they do not know how high prices will climb.

Republican primary voters overwhelmingly cite gas prices as an important issue. But voters’ views of a president are influenced by a wide range of issues.

Rising gas prices sometimes track declines in presidential approval ratings. Gallup reported that President George W. Bush’s ratings fell to 48 percent at the end of October 2004, just before Election Day, from 60 percent in January. The price of a gallon of regular gas climbed 27 percent over the same period.

But gas prices often move out of sync with approval ratings, too. President Bill Clinton’s ratings rose to 54 percent just before Election Day from 42 percent in early January 1996, even as the price of gas climbed 13 percent.

Since 1976, a 30-cent increase in gas prices over a three-month period has corresponded to a reduction of two percentage points in a president’s approval rating if other economic factors are held constant, according to an analysis by John Sides, a professor of political science at George Washington University.

That kind of movement has not been sufficient to affect the outcome of a presidential election, he said. “I think of the information flow that takes place during a presidential campaign as a big, wide Mississippi River, and gas prices are a tributary that flows into that river,” Professor Sides said. “It’s hard for one number, even if it’s staring you in the face while you’re pumping gas, to burn through all the other information that’s out there about the economy and the candidate.”

A key implication, however, is that gas prices could make a difference if the movements were large enough and the race was close enough.

A 2011 study of the impact of economic conditions on regional voting patterns found that the spike in gas prices in the summer of 2008 did give a small boost to Mr. Obama. Independent voters in areas where prices climbed highest reported a significantly more negative view of the health of the economy and were less likely to vote for incumbents.

James Gimpel, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland who was a co-author of the study, said the increased volatility of gas prices was raising its importance in elections. “It may well be that this is an emerging factor that we’ll have to consider,” he said. “But if I can rely on that old social sciences copout, we need more evidence.”


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Sources: MSNBC, NY Times, WRAL, Youtube, Google Maps