China Losing Patience With N. Korea Wikileaks Reveal

WikiLeaks: China Weary Of North Korea Behaving Like A "Spoiled Child"


New documents posted on the websites of the Guardian and The New York Times suggest Chinese officials are losing patience with long-time ally North Korea. Senior figures in Beijing have even described the regime in the North as behaving like a "spoiled child."

According to cables obtained by WikiLeaks, South Korea's then vice foreign minister, Chun Yung-woo, said earlier this year that senior Chinese officials (whose names are redacted in the cables) had told him they believed Korea should be reunified under Seoul's control, and that this view was gaining ground with the leadership in Beijing.

Chun was quoted at length in a cable sent by the U.S. ambassador in Seoul, Kathleen Stephens, earlier this year. He is reported as saying that "the North had already collapsed economically and would collapse politically two to three years after the death of (leader) Kim Jong-il."

CNN has viewed the cables posted on the newspapers' websites and on the WikiLeaks website.

Chun, who has since become South Korea's National Security Adviser, dismissed the prospect of China's military intervention in the event of a North Korean collapse, noting that "China's strategic economic interests now lie with the United States, Japan, and South Korea -- not North Korea."

He said that younger generation Chinese Communist party leaders no longer regarded North Korea as a useful or reliable ally and would not risk renewed armed conflict on the peninsula, according to a secret cable to Washington.

In a separate cable from January this year, then-South Korean Foreign Mnister Yu Myung-Hwan is quoted as telling U.S. diplomats that "the North Korean leader [Kim Jong Il] needed both Chinese economic aid and political support to stabilize an 'increasingly chaotic' situation at home."

The cables suggest China is frustrated in its relationship with Pyongyang. One from April 2009 quoted Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei as saying that "North Korea wanted to engage directly with the United States and was therefore acting like a "spoiled child" in order to get the attention of the "adult." The cable continued: "China therefore encouraged the United States, 'after some time,' to start to re-engage the DPRK."

In October 2009, a cable sent from Beijing recounted a meeting between U.S. diplomats and Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo, who had recently met Kim Jong Il. According to the leaked cable, Dai noted that Kim had lost weight when compared to when he last saw him three years earlier, but that Kim appeared to be in reasonably good health and still had a "sharp mind."

Dai also spoke about Kim's liking for alcohol. The cable continued: "Kim Jong-il had a reputation among the Chinese for being 'quite a good drinker,' and, Dai said, he had asked Kim if he still drank alcohol. Kim said yes."

The North Koreans told Dai that they wanted to have dialogue with the United States first and that they would consider next steps, including possible multilateral talks, depending on their conversation with the United States. North Korea held "great expectations for the United States," said Dai.

Further evidence of China's unease at Pyongyang's behavior came in a cable in June 2009 from the U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Richard Hoagland. He reported that the Chinese envoy there was "genuinely concerned by North Korea's recent nuclear missile tests," and saw its nuclear activity a 'threat to the whole world's security.'" Hoagland reported that China's objectives were "to ensure they [North Korean leaders] honor their commitments on non-proliferation, maintain stability, and 'don't drive [Kim Jong-il] mad.'"

It seems the Russians were similarly frustrated by North Korean obduracy. In April 2009, a U.S. diplomatic cable quoted a senior Russian official as saying that "Foreign Minister Lavrov had a difficult trip to North Korea that did not reveal any flexibility in DPRK's position." The Russian official assessed that Pyongyang was "hunkering down for a succession crisis."


View Larger Map


Sources: CNN, Wikileaks, Google Maps

Kim Tae-Young Resigns; N. Korea's Attack Sign Of Chaos Or Premeditated?

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

With Limited Options, South Korea Shifts Military Rules


Responding to growing public criticism after a deadly North Korean attack, President Lee Myung-bak accepted the resignation on Thursday of his defense minister and announced changes in the military’s rules of engagement to make it easier for South Korea to strike back with greater force, especially if civilians are threatened.

The government also announced plans to increase the number of troops and heavy weapons on Yeonpyeong Island, where two marines and two civilians died Tuesday in an artillery fusillade from the North.

But Mr. Lee, who came to office two years ago vowing to get tough with the North, has little maneuvering room in formulating a response. While the attack appears to have pushed anti-North Korean sentiment here to its highest level in years, there is little public support for taking military action against the North that might lead to an escalation of hostilities.

“North Korea has nothing to lose, while we have everything to lose,” said Kang Won-taek, a professor of politics at Seoul National University. “Lee Myung-bak has no choice but to soften his tone to keep this country peaceful. It is not an appealing choice, but it is the only realistic choice.”

The South’s powerful neighbor is also counseling restraint. The Chinese prime minister, Wen Jiabao, said Thursday that Beijing opposed any provocative military behavior by either side on the Korean Peninsula, Xinhua, the state news agency, reported.

On Thursday, while North Korea warned through its official news agency of further military retaliation if provoked by South Korea, Mr. Lee said only, “We should not drop our guard in preparation for the possibility of another provocation by North Korea,” according to his chief spokesman, Hong Sang-pyo. “A provocation like this can recur any time.”

The changes in the rules of engagement were similarly restrained. South Korean defenses on five coastal islands in the Yellow Sea had been set up primarily to guard against possible amphibious landings by North Korean troops. Critics said Thursday that the military had not anticipated the possibility of an attack by North Korean artillery batteries, which are reportedly in caves along the North’s coastline.

“Now, an artillery battle has become the new threat, so we’re reassessing the need to strengthen defenses,” Mr. Lee told lawmakers. The new measures he outlined include doubling the number of howitzers and upgrading other weaponry.

The new rules of engagement will be based on whether military or civilian sites are the targets, said Mr. Hong, the presidential spokesman, adding that the move was made to “change the paradigm of responding to North Korea’s provocations.”

Previously, South Korean forces were allowed to respond only in kind — if the North fired artillery, the South could answer only with artillery — to contain any dispute. Now, officials said, the military would be allowed to respond with greater force.

The aftermath of this week’s artillery attack was not the first time Mr. Lee had come under criticism for sitting on his hands in the face of a deadly provocation by the North. Two years ago, when a South Korean tourist was shot by a sentry at a North Korean mountain resort, his government’s response amounted to a slap on the wrist: suspending tours to the resort and banning South Korean civic groups from visiting the North.

But the clearest case was Mr. Lee’s response in March to the sinking of a South Korean warship, the Cheonan.

Mr. Lee at first seemed to stall by waiting for the results of an international investigation, which took two months to conclude that the ship had been sunk by a North Korean torpedo. When he responded, it was with relatively mild measures like reducing the South’s already minuscule trade with the North, resuming the South’s cold-war-era propaganda speakers along the demilitarized zone and demanding an apology. But the speakers have yet to be turned on after North Korea threatened to shoot at them, and Mr. Lee dropped the apology demand as a precondition for talks.

Mr. Lee was widely blamed in South Korea for having provoked the Cheonan episode by ending unconditional aid to the North at the start of his presidency.

“Before, the public saw him as too hard, and now they see him as too soft,” said Yoo Ho-yeol, a professor of North Korean studies at Korea University in Seoul.

Despite public pressure to do more, Mr. Lee does not have many options for using less lethal forms of pressure on the North, diplomatic or economic. North Korea has already weathered years of economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation. In fact, the tough economic conditions appear only to give the North motivation to continue its brinkmanship, to extract aid as it faces a winter of food and fuel shortages. Some analysts say the North is also using the provocations to burnish the military credentials of Kim Jong-un, the youngest son of the North’s leader, Kim Jong-il, and his heir apparent.

Analysts say making sanctions effective would require greater support from China, North Korea’s traditional protector, which has so far been reluctant to tighten the screws on the North’s already decrepit economy. In recent days, Mr. Lee and President Obama have agreed to make new appeals to Chinese leaders to put more pressure on the North Korean dictator, but analysts say they are not optimistic that the Chinese will comply.

Still, South Korean officials said they would urge China to act more responsibly by pressing the North to refrain from any more attacks. They also said they would ask Beijing to more closely monitor trade with North Korea by Chinese merchants, which they said has been a way for the North to bypass international economic sanctions.

Mr. Lee and his advisers appear to have concluded that a less confrontational stance is the only way to persuade North Korea to end its provocations. A few analysts speculated that Mr. Lee might eventually end up not far from his liberal predecessors like former President Roh Moo-hyun, who used economic aid to appease the North and reduce tensions on the peninsula.

“Anyone would conclude that the peaceful approach is best to reverse the situation,” said Moon Jung-in, a politics professor at Yonsei University in Seoul and a former adviser in the Roh administration. “A hard-line approach is not a real option.”

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

North Korea Strike May Have Been Premeditated

Since the two Koreas exchanged hundreds of artillery rounds Tuesday in an incident that killed two South Korean marines and two civilians, Seoul and Pyongyang have been blaming each other for instigating the attack.

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-young (who resigned Thursday after being criticized for what was called his poor response to the strike) says he suspects that two senior-level North Korean officers allegedly involved in the March sinking of the South’s warship, Cheonan, were behind this week’s attack. The North, on the other hand, claims that the South fired first.

Regardless of where the first shot came from, Pyongyang seems to have been setting the stage for this kind of attack as early as last year. For the past two years, the North Koreans have increasingly claimed that they were threatened by American and South Korean war games. So when the South conducted counter-proliferation drills with the United States last year, the North’s Korean People’s Army (KPA) declared that it will no longer be bound by the Korean Armistice Agreement and added that it “will not guarantee the legal status” of islands in disputed waters, including Yeonpyeong, the island that was shelled Tuesday.

Translation: North Korea believes it is at liberty to attack should it feel provoked.

What’s more, a relatively unnoticed North Korean military drill in August suggests that Tuesday’s shelling may have been premeditated. On Aug. 9, the North fired about 100 artillery pieces toward South Korean waters. Later that day, North Korean drones were spotted hovering near Yeonpyeong.

South Korean defense officials say they believe the North Koreans are using the drones to spy on the South’s troops and weapons stationed on islands such as Yeonpyeong. That, along with the sequence of the exercise, suggests that the communist North has been gearing up for an attack on the island for some time.

The North Koreans are justifying this week’s shelling as a “decisive self-defensive measure” in response to South Korean military exercises. It’s a logic they’ve been using since the early 1990s; Pyongyang has used U.S. and South Korean war games as a pretext to step up its belligerency, citing the “hostile policies of the U.S. imperialists and the South Korean puppet regime.”

This time, however, things could get worse. In the past, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il used the relatively moderate foreign ministry to keep the military in check so things don’t spiral out of control. But recently, the military appears to be increasingly asserting itself on policy matters.

In the past two years, military organs such as the Supreme Command of the KPA and the National Defense Commission have been issuing policy statements directed toward the outside world -- something that was mostly done by the foreign ministry in the past.

More frightening is that there are reasons to believe that the military has become so emboldened and powerful that Kim Jong-il may no longer be the absolute leader who calls the shots in Pyongyang. For one, the Dear Leader’s physical and mental capacity has been declining—he reportedly suffered a stroke in 2008 and has grown frail since then.

His third son and heir apparent, Kim Jong-un, lacks military credentials (although he recently and arbitrarily was elevated to the rank of general), and has to prove to the military that he has what it takes to be the next dictator-in-chief. That may explain why the Kims recently toured the base from which the shelling took place, to rubber-stamp the attack.

What’s ironic is that part of the military’s growing hubris could be of Kim Jong-il’s own making. In the late 1990s, he initiated his Songun—or military-first—policy, in which the KPA was elevated to the highest position in the government. Under that policy, Kim Jong-il sprinkled his generals with Mercedes, missiles and nukes.

Now, experts say the military has become so powerful that the Dear Leader no longer can rein in his generals. “The military-first policy has essentially reached its logical conclusion—that Kim Jong-il is no longer in a position to make the final policy decisions,” says Kenneth Quinones, a former U.S. negotiator and Korea expert.

Meanwhile, the South Koreans will soon begin naval exercises in the Yellow Sea with the U.S. The exercises will involve the aircraft carrier USS George Washington, which the Obama administration dispatched as a way to signal its displeasure about the shelling.

In the eyes of North Korea’s generals, that may well constitute another excuse to get trigger-happy, again.


View Larger Map


Sources: CNN, MSNBC, Newsweek, NY Times, Google Maps

China Reluctant To Help Quell North Korea's Cry For Attention

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Administration May Face Uphill Climb In Appealing To China On North Korea


The Obama administration is banking on China to help resolve and contain the confrontation between North and South Korea but may end up disappointed, given the Communist juggernaut's record in assuaging North Korea's belligerence.

China has so far declined to put pressure on North Korea after an international investigation found that a North Korean torpedo was responsible for the sinking of a South Korean warship in March -- a strike that killed 46 sailors.

Now that a North Korean artillery attack on a tiny South Korean island has left at least four dead and many more injured, some doubt China will step to the plate and move to stifle the North's deadly behavior, which coincides with a rare leadership succession in the reclusive regime.

"Unfortunately, China has shown itself to be more a part of the problem than part of the solution," said Bruce Klingner, a former official with the CIA's Korea Branch who now works as a research fellow with the Heritage Foundation. "We're not likely to get much from China."

He said that while some inside the Chinese government view North Korea, which exercises a far more oppressive brand of Communism than China, as an albatross and impediment to dealing with the more economically prosperous South, the country would rather put up with the North's temper tantrums than get involved and risk an all-out violent conflict next door.

But Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an interview Wednesday that China is the one country with influence in Pyongyang. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said U.S. diplomats are urging China to put pressure on the North Korean regime in the wake of the attacks, as the U.N. Security Council, of which China is a veto-wielding member, is expected to meet.

If China doesn't play ball, the United States and its Asian allies are left with yet another tricky, lose-lose situation on the Korean peninsula. Some analysts say Korea is just trying to extract more aid, others say it's making noise to mark the ascension of a new ruler. The State Department made clear it does not want to reward bad behavior with engagement, leaving the United States with options ranging from tough talk to military demonstrations to better sanctions enforcement.

"The North Koreans engage in these provocative acts because they know they can get away with them," said Gordon Chang, author of "Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On the World." "We know that (there are) going to be more and more incidents until the Obama administration and the Lee administration in Seoul move away from just rhetoric."

Chang said a strike on North Korea's recently unveiled uranium enrichment facility should be "on the table" as a last resort, but so should tougher financial sanctions.

Tony Schaffer, with the Center for Advanced Defense Studies, said military exercises with the South Koreans should also become more frequent, "to show we're serious."

The USS George Washington aircraft carrier and support ships have been sent to the waters west of the Korean peninsula, apparently as part of planned war exercises with the South.

"There may be some more exercises considered in light of the artillery attack," one defense official said.

Klingner said the United States should continue to pursue a two-track approach, of putting the squeeze on North Korea through sanctions while opening the door for the country to rejoin the six-party talks on its nuclear program.

He said "unconditional engagement" would not be worthwhile, but the country could still be persuaded to come back to the table. He suggested the United Nations and United States crack down on countries like Iran, Syria and Burma where the North is allegedly providing nuclear material, as well as get tougher on China for its economic engagement with North Korea.

The Obama administration has by turns taken a tough and cautious tone in addressing the latest confrontation on the peninsula.

State Department spokesman Mark Toner said Tuesday that the United States will not "buy into this cycle of rewarding that kind of behavior" from North Korea. He called for a "deliberate, slow approach."

"We're not going to respond willy-nilly," he said.

Asked what China could add to the process, he said. "They've got, obviously, a closer relationship with North Korea."

He said a "unified, coherent front" toward North Korea, presumably with China, would "make them aware of their isolation."





Korean Crisis: How Will China Respond?


All eyes are on China after North Korea provoked threats of "enormous retaliation" from South Korea by firing artillery rounds at Yeonpyeong Island.

Four people were killed in Tuesday's shelling. The North claimed South Korea provoked the attack by holding a military drill off their shared coast in the Yellow Sea.

China is North Korea's ally and its biggest trading partner. They share a long border prompting speculation about how the communist country could react to tension next door.

China has the power to cut off North Korea's most important link with the outside world by stopping their shipments of food, fuel and weapons, but has indicated no intention to do so.

However, analysts say China's leverage over its next door neighbor may be over-rated.

"China does have more influence than other players but we have to remember China does not have absolute influence," said Wenran Jiang, political science professor at University of Alberta.

China is also reluctant to lean heavily on allies like North Korea because it follows the principle of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs, analysts say.



Beijing is trying to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table.

North Korea walked away from the last round of the six-party talks aimed at getting North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program in exchange for economic aid and political concessions.

The talks have been stalled for about three years. Analysts say the heightened tension in the Korean peninsula is a reminder that hotspots like the Korean crisis need urgent action. They say reconvening the six-party talks is one of the most immediate steps available to re-engage with the nation.

So what does North Korea want? "What they really wanted for years is diplomatic recognition of North Korea by the U.S.," said Wenran Jiang.

"They are frustrated because they feel they have done the six-party talks, they have launched missiles, have done nuclear weapons tests, they have made all kinds of threats but they still don't get the U.S. to move towards normalization," he said.

Analysts say, despite the apparent ineffectiveness of the six-party talks, Beijing still stands a better chance of bringing Pyongyang back to the fold through diplomacy.

"It's important for us to remember that during the six-party talks these conflicts were less likely to happen, while without such mechanism we see such bloodshed." Jiang said.



Observers say it all comes down to building trust -- a difficult task -- and here China can play a unique role as a rising global power and a potential peace-maker.


View Larger Map


Sources: CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Google Maps

North Korea's Kim Jong II Has Been Diagnosed With Pancreatic Cancer

MSNBC----

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has life-threatening pancreatic cancer, a news report said Monday, days after new images of him looking gaunt spurred speculation that his health might be worsening following a reported stroke last year.

The 67-year-old Kim was diagnosed with the cancer around the time he was felled by a stroke last summer, Seoul's YTN television reported, citing unidentified intelligence officials in South Korea and China.

The report cited the officials saying the disease is "threatening" Kim's life.

Pancreatic cancer is usually found in its final stage, and considering Kim's age, he is expected to live no more than five years, the report said.

South Korea's spy agency said it could not confirm the report. Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung told reporters he knows of nothing of the report.

Kim's health is a focus of intense media speculation due to concerns about instability and a power struggle if he were to die without naming a successor. His third and youngest son, Kim Jong Un, has widely been reported as being groomed as heir, but the regime has made no announcement to the outside world.

Rare appearance:

Monday's report came after Kim last week made a rare public appearance, in an annual memorial for his late father and North Korea's founder, Kim Il Sung.

Television footage showed him markedly thinner and with less hair — only the second state event he has attended in person since the reported stroke. He also limped slightly, and the sides of his tightlipped mouth looked imbalanced in what were believed to be the effects of a stroke.

The images touched off speculation that he could have other health problems.

South Korea's spy agency has long suspected that Kim has diabetes and heart disease.

Medical doctor and professor Min Yang-ki of Seoul's Hallym University Medical Center has said diabetes usually leads to weight loss. The neurologist also said Kim's limping appears to be a result of a stroke. However, he said, overall it appeared Kim has recovered from that reported illness.

Kim walked on his own into a Pyongyang auditorium for last week's memorial at a normal pace and bowed while standing during a moment of silence.

North Korea experts said the latest images of Kim show he is still fit enough to rule.

The totalitarian leader, whose rule is buttressed by an intense cult of personality, knew that the people of North Korea would pay great attention to the memorial, and his appearance there is a message that he is in charge, Yang Moo-jin, a professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies, said last week.

Kim Jong Il took over North Korea after his father died in 1994 of heart failure at age 82, though he did not take on his father's title of president. He runs the North from his post as chairman of the National Defense Commission.

In early April, he presided over a parliamentary meeting where he was re-elected as leader.

Son in line to take over?

The South's spy agency believes that Kim's 26-year-old youngest son, Jong Un, is sure to inherit North Korea, Seoul's Chosun Ilbo daily reported Monday, citing a recent report to the National Assembly by the National Intelligence Service.

The agency also reported that Kim Jong Il is expected to officially designate the son as his successor in 2012, the centennial anniversary of late national founder Kim Il Sung's birth, the paper said.

But the regime under the son is expected to be unstable and vulnerable to internal political strife as Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law, Jang Song Thaek, could attempt to snatch power, the paper said.

The spy agency declined to confirm the report.

Sources: MSNBC