GEORGE HERBERT WALKER BUSH - FORMER US PRES DEAD AT 94 (R.I.P.):
BORN - JUNE 12, 1924 (MASSACHUSETTS)
DIED - NOV 30, 2018 (TEXAS)
SERVED AS 43rd VICE-PRES - 1981 to 1989
SERVED AS 41st PRES - 1989 to 1993.
Post Sources: CNN, Wikipedia, Youtube
Congressional leaders announced that an arrival ceremony will be held for Bush on Monday at 5 p.m. ET. The public will then be invited to pay their respects from 7:30 p.m. until 7:00 a.m. Wednesday. The statement said that the Bush family will provide additional details regarding arrangements beyond the ceremony at the Capitol.
Sources: Dallas News, Daily Beast, Fox News, YouTube
As the two Cubans on the 2016 GOP campaign trail continue to battle for voters & donors, after Nevada & Texas only one will stand alongside Frontrunner Donald Trump.
Many Political Strategists predict GOP establishment favorite Marco Rubio will soon claim that position.
If Ted Cruz loses Texas will he immediately concede as Jeb Bush did when he lost South Carolina?
“Electability” was the deciding factor, Patterson said. “Who will win in November against a Democrat.”
In his view, Rubio and Cruz tout similar priorities — namely protecting the Second Amendment and religious freedom.
“Trump doesn’t have a clue what he knows or rather what he doesn’t know,” Patterson said.
Patterson said he had to disregard Trump’s status and take a close look at Rubio and Cruz when making his endorsement decision.
“Ted is impressive,” Patterson said in a written statement. “He’s remarkably intelligent. He knows the issues. He’s a great debater.”
But Cruz’s shifting status on immigration is “too cute, too clever,” Patterson said.
Cruz proposed an amendment in 2013 to an immigration bill backed by Rubio and seven other senators dubbed the “Gang of Eight.” The bill required more border security and a path for unauthorized immigrants to pursue legal status after undergoing background checks, waiting periods and paying fines and back taxes.
Cruz’s amendment would have stripped the citizenship provision from the bill while still allowing immigrants to apply for a work permit, and after 10 years enable them to apply for permanent residency.
Rudio earned a second Texas endorsement Sunday evening from Elizabeth Ames Jones Coleman, who served two terms representing Bexar County in the Texas House and was appointed by Gov. Rick Perry to chair the the Texas Railroad Commission from 2005 until 2012. She is a partner at EnergyNorthAmerica, LLC, a Washington D.C.-based energy consulting firm.
Coleman said in a written statement that Rubio is the candidate who “best understands the importance of our domestic energy industry.”
In his energy plan, Rubio calls for immediate approval of the Keystone XL pipeline, expedited approval for American natural gas exports and returning control energy development efforts to the states.
“He will claw back the confiscatory tax schemes and crippling government regulations that hamstring entrepreneurs and job creators,” Coleman wrote. “I am convinced that Marco Rubio is the man for the job.
Republican presidential hopeful Jeb Bush suspended his campaign for the White House on Saturday, following a poor showing in the South Carolina primaries.
“I’m proud of the campaign that we have run to unify our country,” Bush said. “But the people of Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina have spoken, and I really respect their decision. So tonight I am suspending my campaign.”
Bush, the former Florida governor, entered the 2016 presidential race as an early favorite, but has fallen in the polls steadily, despite having had a couple strong debate performances in recent weeks.
“The presidency is bigger than any one person,” Bush said during an emotional speech. “It is certainly bigger than any candidate.”
He added that he firmly believed "the American people must entrust this office to someone who understands that whoever holds it is a servant, not the master."
George W. Bush told voters in South Carolina that his brother has the "experience and character to be a great president."
"I'm proud of his candidacy," Bush said
George W. Bush told voters here Monday that "we do not need someone in the Oval Office who mirrors and inflames our frustration" -- a clear swipe at Donald Trump during a campaign rally for his brother, Jeb Bush.
In his most political speech since he left office in 2009, George W. Bush said voters should choose a candidate who is "measured and thoughtful" over the loudest and angriest man in the room.
"I understand that Americans are angry and frustrated but we do not need someone in the Oval Office who mirrors and inflames our anger and frustration," Bush said. "We need someone that can fix the problems that cause our anger and frustration, and that's Jeb Bush."
Bush called the 2016 campaign a "serious election for a serious job," in a 20-minute speech that was both sober and at times light-hearted.
"I'm proud of his candidacy," Bush said about his brother. "I came here for two reasons -- one, because I care deeply about Jeb, and two, because I care deeply about our country."
The former president pointed to the abundant "name-calling" in the 2016 election -- an apparent reference to the punches thrown between Jeb Bush and Trump in recent months -- and joked that according to their father, George H.W. Bush, "labels are for soup cans."
"(The) presidency is a serious job that requires sound judgment and good ideas," Bush said.
Although the former president did not once mention Trump's name in his remarks, the implicit message was clear:
Trump is not a serious candidate.
"Strength is not empty rhetoric, it is not bluster," Bush said, but rather based on"integrity and character."
"In my experience, the strongest person usually isn't the loudest in the room," he added.
In a speech that was largely centered around national security and terrorism, Bush reflected on the attacks of September 11, 2001 -- and the "tough calls" he had to make in the days that followed — as he presented his brother as the most "measured and thoughtful" candidate in the GOP pack.
"When Americans woke up on September 11, we did not know that the world was forever changed that day," Bush said.
He urged voters here to "look for a candidate who has genuine respect for the United States military (and) who will support them on the battlefield and when they return home."
The long-running tensions between Jeb Bush and Trump boiled over on Saturday at the Republican debate in Greenville, when Trump attacked George W. Bush's national security record.
The New York real estate mogul called the former president's decision to go to war in Iraq a "big fat mistake."
Jeb Bush hit back with force.
"My dad is the greatest man alive, in my mind. While Donald Trump was building a reality TV show, my brother was building a security apparatus to keep us safe and I'm proud of what he did," he said.
Trump took things one step further, saying it was under George W. Bush's watch that the World Trade Centers in Manhattan fell on 9/11.
"That's not keeping us safe," the New Yorker said, as the audience booed loudly in disapproval.
Since leaving Washington in 2009 after eight years in the White House, Bush has not shown interest in being in the public spotlight or playing a leadership role within the Republican Party.
His visit to North Charleston comes as other members of the Bush clan have also started to play a more active role in Jeb Bush's presidential campaign. In New Hampshire, Bush's mother and former first lady, Barbara Bush, campaigned with her younger son.
On Monday, George W. Bush also discussed life after the White House, which he lightheartedly referred to as "the after life."
"Laura and I loved our years in Washington, but we really don't miss it too much," he said, bringing the audience to laughter.
He joked that the couple now spends a lot of time on their ranch in Texas, and that that as tree farmers, he still gets opportunities to practice his "stump speech."
He also quipped about his new hobby of painting: "Let me assure you, I know that the signature's worth more than the painting."
There were plenty of attendees at the North Charleston Coliseum who said their main motivation for coming to Jeb Bush's rally Monday night was to see an ex-president in person.
Sharon Hickey, a New Hampshire resident who rents a home in South Carolina for a part of the year, said it was "wonderful" to see George W. Bush campaign for his brother.
"We're honored to be here to see, to be in the presence of, a former President," Hickey said.
Joe Kelley, a retired fighter fighter from Boston who owns a second home in Murrells Inlet, is currently undecided but leaning towards Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.
As he waited to George W. Bush to take the stage, he said he thought the ex-President did a "fine enough job" in the White House.
"In my life time I've seen one President in person, Bill Clinton," Kelley said. "Just to see a president in person -- I think it would be nice."
Sparks flew at the toughest and liveliest GOP primary debate yet Saturday night, as Donald Trump and Jeb Bush clashed over the Middle East and George W. Bush’s legacy, trading insults at a rapid clip – and the two Cuban-American senators in the race accused each other of lying on immigration and even questioned each other’s Spanish-speaking skills.
And just when it seemed Trump and Ted Cruz might steer clear of each other, the two leading Republican candidates entered the ring toward the end of the debate when the Texas senator questioned the billionaire businessman’s pro-life credentials.
“You are the single biggest liar. You’re probably worse than Jeb Bush,” Trump said.
Cruz stood his ground, charging that Trump would “appoint liberals” to the Supreme Court if elected.
The issue of judicial appointments was front and center at the CBS News-hosted debate in Greenville, S.C., in the wake of Justice Antonin Scalia’s death, with candidates like Cruz saying it underscores the high stakes in this election. Several candidates called for a delay in any high court appointment or confirmation.
But the barbed and often personal exchanges Saturday marked a new phase of the race, as the candidates charge into next week’s critical South Carolina primary.
The clashes left Ohio Gov. John Kasich – the affable, second-place finisher in the New Hampshire primary – making an appeal for peace in the GOP field, albeit one unlikely to be heeded.
“I think we’re fixing to lose the election to Hillary Clinton if we don’t stop this,” Kasich said.
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, too, warned about the coming general election and said, “We cannot be tearing each other down.”
The appeals came shortly after Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio accused each other of being soft on illegal immigration. It’s an argument they’ve had before – Cruz faults Rubio for backing a comprehensive immigration reform bill that included a path to legal status, and Rubio says Cruz was on board with that effort – but this time, it became more heated.
And after Cruz accused Rubio of saying on Univision he wouldn’t rescind President Obama’s immigration executive orders on day one, Rubio quipped:
“I don’t know how he knows what I said on Univision because he doesn’t speak Spanish,” Rubio said.
Cruz, then, immediately began debating Rubio in Spanish. Rubio continued, saying Cruz “lies about all sorts of things” and indeed supports legalizing illegal immigrants.
“Simply false,” Cruz said.
As the Rubio-Cruz battle heated up, so did the long-simmering feud between Trump and Bush.
“This is a man who insults his way to the nomination,” Bush said of Trump.
With Bush attempting a comeback in the race after a fourth-place finish in New Hampshire, Trump faced a feistier debate rival on stage Saturday night than he has before – boosted in part by what seemed to be a sympathetic audience.
The audience often booed Trump when he took on Bush, though Trump once again accused them of representing Bush’s “special interests and lobbyists.”
Their most personal dispute came when Trump accused Bush of promoting a policy that would get the U.S. mired more deeply in the Middle East – and blamed the former Florida governor’s brother for the problems there.
Trump initially took issue with Jeb Bush’s call to confront ISIS while also taking on Syria’s Bashar Assad and sidelining Russia.
“Jeb is so wrong,” Trump said. “You have to knock out ISIS. .... You decide what you have to do after. You can’t fight two wars at one time.”
Bush, though, said Russia is not a U.S. ally, and Assad’s hold on power prevents a resolution in the war.
Trump then went on to repeatedly slam the decision under the George W. Bush administration to enter Iraq in the first place, calling it a “big fat mistake” that “destabilized the Middle East.”
“They lied” about WMDs, he said.
“I am sick and tired of him going after my family,” Jeb Bush countered, saying he’s proud of his brother’s efforts to keep the country safe.
Trump then invoked 9/11: “The World Trade Center came down … That’s not keeping us safe.”
Rubio, who has often been at odds with Bush, leapt to his brother’s defense, saying the Bush administration “kept us safe.”
Jeb Bush joked that he was rescinding Trump’s invitation to an upcoming rally with George W. Bush on the campaign trail.
The fireworks flew after the debate started on a somber note, discussing the legacy of Supreme Court Justice Scalia and the impact his death Saturday will have.
Several candidates urged President Obama to refrain from nominating anybody to fill the vacancy, and wait for the next president to make that decision. Trump, though, said he doesn’t expect Obama to wait, and called on Senate Republicans to hold up any nomination.
“It’s called delay, delay, delay,” Trump said.
Trump called Scalia’s death a “tremendous blow to conservatism.”
Kasich urged Obama to put the “country first” and not move forward with a nomination, a plea echoed by Rubio. Obama, though, said minutes before the start of the debate that he indeed plans to nominate a successor.
The GOP candidates, meanwhile, used opening remarks to honor Scalia’s legacy.
Cruz called him a “legal giant” who “changed the arc of American legal history.” He said Scalia’s death also “underscores the stakes of this election.”
“We are one justice away from a Supreme Court that will strike down every restriction on abortion” by states, threaten gun rights and “undermine” religious liberty, Cruz said. He said he would appoint a strict constitutionalist if elected.
Scalia’s death thrusts the issue of judicial appointments into the 2016 race, raising the possibility that the next president immediately will have to fill a high court vacancy.
While Obama vowed Saturday to nominate a successor, it’s unclear whether he can get any appointee confirmed in the Republican-led Senate.
While the prospect of a Supreme Court vacancy now looms over the race, the South Carolina primary already was heating up on several fronts in recent days, with the candidates trading accusations on immigration and other issues.
The debate Saturday reflects that tougher tone, in a state notorious for bare-knuckle primary battles.
Trump at one point accused Cruz of trying to spread rumors in the state that he’s not running in South Carolina – likening that to his campaign’s actions in Iowa, where representatives spread false rumors that Carson was dropping out.
“Nasty guy, now I know why he doesn’t have one endorsement from any of his colleagues,” Trump said.
Even Kasich struggled to avoid the fray, as Bush criticized him for expanding Medicaid under ObamaCare and said that would create more debt.
“He knows that I’m not for ObamaCare,” Kasich said, before vowing to stay “positive. “
The GOP field is now down to six candidates -- after New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Hewlett Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina dropped out following low finishes Tuesday in the New Hampshire primary.
A big question Saturday night, and going forward, was whether Rubio could regain his momentum – following last weekend’s lackluster performance.
A withering attack by Christie on Rubio, which had the Florida senator repeating himself, appeared to hurt him in the New Hampshire primary.
Rubio himself blamed his debate performance in part for his fifth-place finish in the state.
He finished behind Trump, Kasich, Cruz and Bush. Christie, though, is no longer on stage or in the race.
Most polling in South Carolina still shows Rubio third, with Trump and Cruz in the top two positions, respectively.
Donald J. Trump claimed victory in New Hampshire’s Republican primary on Tuesday, according to The Associated Press, while Senator Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton in the Democratic contest in a state where he has long held an advantage.
Mr. Trump, a billionaire businessman whose outsize presence has upended the Republican race, recovered from a humbling second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses to take a state where he led in the polls for months. He won despite largely shunning the kind of retail campaigning that is commonplace among presidential candidates trying to win over New Hampshire voters.
The victory by Mr. Trump suggests for the first time that his unconventional and divisive campaign, powered in large measure by celebrity and showmanship, is capable of delivering votes. And it puts him in strong position as the race heads to South Carolina, where Mr. Trump holds a double-digit polling lead over his two closest rivals, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.
Mr. Sanders’s victory is the second disappointing result in as many weeks for Mrs. Clinton, who barely eked out a win in the Iowa caucuses against Mr. Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist whose candidacy has proved surprisingly formidable.
Mr. Sanders has represented the neighboring state of Vermont for more than two decades, giving him at least some degree of home-field advantage in New Hampshire.
Donald Trump holds his lead for the GOP nomination and has soared in expectations: 64 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents now expect him to be the party’s nominee, up sharply in the last two months.
Expectations that Trump will win the nomination have jumped by 25 percentage points since November among Republican-leaning voters in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.
Two-thirds also say they’d accept him as their party’s nominee. And he’s seen by 56 percent as their most electable nominee in the general election this fall.
Trump has 37 percent support nationally among Republicans who are registered to vote, unchanged from last month (with no bounce from his endorsement by Sarah Palin).
Ted Cruz has advanced by a slight 6 points from last month, and 15 points from October, to a clear, if somewhat distant, second place, with 21 percent. Marco Rubio’s in the third slot, 11 percent, with all others in the single digits in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.
Rubio appears to have a stand-in shot – he does well as a second choice, selected by 23 percent now vs. 14 percent last month.
Ben Carson, for his part, has continued to crater, showing the sometime changeability of voter preferences: he’s gone from 22 percent two months ago to 7 percent now, almost precisely swapping places with Cruz.
There’s essentially no change among lower-tier candidates – 5 percent for Jeb Bush, 4 percent for Chris Christie, 3 percent for Carly Fiorina, 2 percent apiece for John Kasich and Mike Huckabee,
1 percent for Rand Paul and less than that for Rick Santorum.
These standings reflect, above all, two factors:
The strength of leaned Republicans’ interest in a candidate from outside the political establishment, and the power of anti-immigrant views in the party.
Statistical analysis finds that these two are the single strongest independent predictors of supporting Trump vs. any of his opponents. They’re also issues on which the rest of the public differs dramatically from prevailing GOP sentiment, raising challenges for the party in the general election ahead.
Underscoring party preferences for an outsider, it’s the more traditional GOP candidates – Bush and Christie – who are less apt to be rated as acceptable nominees. Just 52 percent of leaned Republicans see either as acceptable; Rubio, Cruz, Trump and Carson all do better on this score, rated as acceptable by 67, 66, 65 and 62 percent, respectively.
Strength
Fifty-six percent of leaned Republicans have a favorable opinion of Palin (unlike the rest of the public, who view her unfavorably by a broad 69-16 percent). That said, her endorsement of Trump last week shows no impact on vote preferences: His support is unchanged from its pre-endorsement level.
Ten percent of leaned Republicans say the endorsement makes them more likely to support Trump, but as many, 9 percent, say it makes them less likely to do so. Most by far, 81 percent, say it makes no difference to their vote.
Endorsements customarily don’t change preferences but, at best, reinforce them.
And Trump’s support appears strong: Fifty-seven percent of his backers say they’ll definitely support him; among all other GOP candidates combined, strength of support declines to 35 percent, with the rest saying they may yet change their minds.
Additionally, Trump’s support is essentially the same whether it’s among all registered leaned Republicans or those indicating they’re most likely to vote in the caucus or primary in their state.
And there are no meaningful divisions in his support among key GOP groups – e.g., whether mainline Republicans or independents, evangelicals or not, or by strength of ideology (moderates vs. somewhat conservatives vs. strong conservatives).
He continues to do somewhat better with lower-income leaned Republicans; differences by education and gender have faded.
Cruz, by contrast, does best with strong conservatives and evangelicals, and better with men than with women.
Trump’s support, as noted, continues to spring from anti-establishment and anti-immigrant sentiment within the GOP, buttressed by economic discontent and by a broad sense among the rank and file that he’d be the party’s most electable pick.
Among those results:
• His backing soars to 53 percent among leaned Republicans who strongly feel that immigrants weaken U.S. society, vs. 24 percent among those who think immigrants strengthen this country.
The former view is far more prevalent within the GOP.
• Leaned Republicans by 54-42 percent chiefly want a candidate from outside the political establishment. Among those who are in the anti-establishment group, and registered to vote, 51 percent pick Trump over his 10 rivals tested in this poll.
Among those who are very worried about their economic prospects (27 percent of registered leaned Republicans), Trump gets 45 percent support, vs. 28 percent among those who aren’t worried.
• Fifty-one percent think Trump is the best choice to bring needed change to Washington, perhaps the single most crucial attribute to leaned Republicans – 83 percent of whom express dissatisfaction or even anger with the way things are working in the capital.
• As noted, 56 percent of leaned Republicans think Trump has the best chance to win the general election in November, up 9 points from last month.
And the sharp increase in expectations that he’ll win the party’s nomination has been broadly based, occurring across GOP groups. While attitudes certainly can shift with events, some academic work has suggested that public expectations for who’ll win an election can be credible predictors of actual outcomes.
These results, in any case, are intended to explore how Americans across the country are approaching the election – their issues and attributes that matter to them and how these play out, among various groups, in candidate preferences.
The results don’t forecast the outcome of any individual caucus or primary.
Low-turnout events such as caucuses can be heavily influenced by effective get-out-the-vote operations and by prevalent population groups; high numbers of evangelical Christians, for instance, often participate in Iowa caucuses.
Primaries have their own dynamics; in New Hampshire’s, for example, independent voters are unusually numerous.
In an ABC/Post poll in December 2011, Newt Gingrich had 30 percent support nationally and Santorum had 4 percent; in the Iowa caucus the next month, by contrast, Gingrich won 13 percent of the vote, Santorum 25 percent. It was Mitt Romney – co-leader in the national poll, and co-leader in the Iowa caucus results – who went on to win the nomination.
(And Romney consistently led in expectations leading up to the 2012 primaries, even as many of his rivals opened up sometimes sizable leads against him in vote intention questions.)
It’s worth noting, as well, that even among Trump’s supporters 42 percent say they may yet change their minds, as do 64 percent of those supporting other candidates. That makes for plenty of room for movement as the contest unfolds in the weeks ahead.
Attributes/Issues
Trump has less of an advantage on some personal attributes – notably on having the best personality and temperament to serve as president (24 percent pick Cruz on this attribute, despite his alleged lack of collegiality, vs. Trump’s 22 percent) and honesty and trustworthiness (Trump 27 percent, Carson 24, Cruz 17).
In being “closest to you on the issues” 36 percent pick Trump, but Cruz, at 20 percent, has moved up, with a 12-point gain since fall.
Trump, separately, leads on most issues: Fifty-five percent pick him as best able to handle the economy, up 8 points from December. Fifty percent prefer him on regulating banks and financial institutions.
And he continues to lead widely in trust to handle terrorism and immigration issues.
That said, Trump does notably less well in trust to handle a major international crisis; he’s selected by 31 percent on this issue vs. Cruz’s 23 percent and Bush’s 17 percent – one area in which his rivals might find ammunition.
Reps vs. the rest
In a data analysis assessing the strongest independent correlates of vote preference for Trump, desire for an outsider is the single strongest factor, followed by anti-immigration views.
Desiring an outsider, in turn, is independently related to an index of broader discontent, including anger at the way the government is working; a sense that government is part of the problem rather than part of the solution; views that the country’s best days are behind it; whether it’s on the wrong track; a sense that one’s own values are losing ground in society; and economic anxiety.
A challenge for the GOP, looking ahead, is the extent to which leaned Republicans differ from the rest of the public on many such measures.
While 54 percent of leaned Republicans are looking chiefly for an outsider, among all other Americans, 75 percent prefer a candidate with experience in how the political system works.
While 50 percent of leaned Republicans say immigrants mainly weaken U.S. society, 66 percent of others say they mainly strengthen it.
And there’s a vast 45-point difference in views on whether the country’s on the wrong track.
Leaned Republicans also are 27 points more apt than others to see government as part of the problem;
twice as likely to be angry about it; 17 points more likely to see America’s best days as behind it; and 15 points more apt to say their own values are losing ground in society today.
Economic worry is the only one of these in which significant differences aren’t evident.
On the others, whichever Republican wins the nomination, there will be substantial work ahead in reconciling world views within the GOP with those beyond it.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Jan. 21-24, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults.
Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect, for the full sample;
4 points for all registered voters; and 5.5 points for registered leaned Republicans.
Partisan divisions are 34-23-34 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.
Sources: ABC News, ABC News/Washington Post Poll, CNN, Langer Research Associates, Youtube
2016 GOP CIVIL WAR MAY COST THEM THE WHITE HOUSE - HATING TRUMP:
GOP CIVIL WAR MEANS HILLARY CLINTON WINS BY DEFAULT.
As the Nov 2016 Presidential election approaches, it's quite obvious to the naked voter eye that a Civil War is brewing among GOP Establishment leaders.
Voters want DONALD TRUMP but GOP Establishment leaders want JEB BUSH or MARCO RUBIO.
There are rumors floating of a possible Coup at the RNC Convention in CLEVELAND if TRUMP is the party Nominee.
This divisive Civil War may indeed cost the GOP to lose the White House again.
Due to this brewing GOP Civil War HILLARY CLINTON Won't have to campaign as hard and she just might capture the White House by default.
Without UNITY no organization will stand successfully.
Without UNITY no Family or Marriage will survive.
Without UNITY no Political party will Win general Elections.
Will GOP Establishment leaders wake up before it's too late??
A free-for-all between Christie, Rubio, Cruz and others, while Trump hovers above it all.
What everyone’s waiting for is the winnowing. New Hampshire and Iowa will force some Republican candidates out. When we know who’s still in we’ll have a surer sense of the contours of the race.
It is still true that the party has never had a year like this, with the ground shifting beneath its feet. It’s hard to see this clearly because on the surface the things you expect to see happening are happening.
The candidates are starting to throw hard punches. They’re all trying to show they can float like a butterfly and sting like a bee—a necessary talent if you make it to the general election. No point in hand-wringing or telling them to stop on the grounds that what they’re doing will produce, for the Democrats, a badly bloodied GOP nominee.
Best and worst have come from Chris Christie, who has a way of keeping things lively.
Earlier he counseled his fellow contenders not to savage each other—don’t waste your ammo, keep your eyes on the prize. Good advice. This week Marco Rubio’s PAC unloaded a spot slamming Mr. Christie on the old charge he embraced President Obama during Hurricane Sandy.
The governor answered Wednesday on Laura Ingraham’s radio show. He called Mr. Rubio “a first-term United States senator who has never had a tough race.” He continued: “This guy’s been spoon-fed every victory he’s ever had in his life. That’s the kind of person that we want to put on stage against Hillary Clinton?
I don’t think so. She’ll pat him on the head and then cut his heart out.” It was wonderfully colorful and malicious and reminded me of Sen. Bob Kerrey, who said of Bill Clinton in 1992 that he wouldn’t win in November because he hadn’t served in Vietnam: “He’s going to get opened up like a soft peanut.”
Democratic presidential primaries in those days were fierce. They’re not anymore, because the new Democratic Party, the one of the progressive left, has only a single unifying principle: winning. Hillary Clinton’s opponents haven’t laid a glove on her, and won’t.
Mr. Rubio has turned stern and indignant, as if he’s decided the base is angry so he’ll enact anger too. Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, he darkly alleges, are “isolationist candidates” whose intent is “weakening our military and intelligence capabilities.” Mr. Paul responded by comparing Mr. Rubio to Rahm Emanuel.
More touchingly, Jeb Bush again warned the base about Donald Trump. “It’s very fun to talk about the theatrics,” he said on “Morning Joe.” Mr. Trump has tapped into “angst and anger,” but “his views are not the views of a conservative.”
Mr. Trump’s supporters don’t care if he’s classically conservative. Doctrinal purity is not the story this year. The GOP base is a big jumble.
Democrats are likely less unified than they think. On the rightward and leftward edges of both parties they hate political correctness, illegal immigration, Wall Street.
A new playbook is emerging while some contenders seem to be reading from the old playbook and wondering why the plays they’re calling aren’t working.
And the GOP is struggling. In Virginia the state Republican Party wants a so-called loyalty oath in the March 1 presidential primary.
Virginia is an open-primary state—any registered voter can vote in either primary—but the GOP apparently wants to discourage independents and Democrats from voting for Mr. Trump. So they’ve decided voters should sign a statement of affiliation with the GOP before they get to cast a ballot.
This is so idiotic it’s almost unbelievable.
When Democrats and independents want to vote in your primary you should be happy.
Politics is a game of addition! You want headlines that say “Massive GOP Turnout.” You don’t greet first-time voters with an oath but with cookies, ginger ale and balloons. Ronald Reagan reached out to Democrats in 1984: “Come too, come walk with me.” We still speak of Reagan Democrats.
I do not understand the inability or refusal of Republican leaders to take Mr. Trump seriously.
They take his numbers seriously—they can read a poll—but they think, as Mr. Bush said, that his support is all about anger, angst and theatrics. That’s part of the story, but the other, more consequential part has to do with real policy issues.
The establishment refuses to see that, because to admit it is to implicate themselves and their leadership. Political consultants can’t see it because they don’t think issues matter—not to them and certainly not to the dumb voters.
But issues do matter, and Mr. Trump has functioned this year not as a great communicator or great compromiser but as the great disrupter. He brags that he has brought up great questions and forced other candidates to face them and sometimes change their stands—and he has.
He changed the debate on illegal immigration. He said he’d build a wall and close the border and as the months passed and his competitors saw his surge, they too were suddenly, clearly, aggressively for ending illegal immigration.
Mr. Trump touched an important nerve in opposing the political correctness that has angered the American people for a quarter century. He changed the debate when he asked for a pause in Muslim immigration until America “can figure out what’s going on.” In the age of terror, that looked suspiciously like common sense.
Americans do not want America to become what Europe is becoming.
You only have to look at what is reported to have happened in Cologne, Germany, on New Year’s Eve to get a sense that Europe’s establishment, with its politically correct thinking, is losing control.
Angela Merkel is a great lady and most of her leadership has been sound as a drum, but she will probably lose her job eventually because of her epic miscalculation in accepting more than a million Middle Eastern refugees.
Her decision was no doubt driven by heart and sympathy, but it reminds me of the fall of Margaret Thatcher. In 1989 Thatcher moved to impose a change in the British tax system. This caused resentment and then unrest. She wouldn’t back down, and the next year she fell. Years later she told me what she’d learned.
People are afraid, she said; they live closer to the margins than we understand. When you propose a big change you can leave people feeling as if the rug is being pulled from under them. That’s a big thing to learn, and she spoke of it with humility.
She lost her job by being too tough. Ms. Merkel has imperiled hers by being too soft. But the lesson is the same: know how close to the edge people feel, how powerless, and respect their anxiety. Don’t look down on it, and them.
Back to the Republicans. It reflects badly on the party that Donald Trump—whom one journalist this week characterized as a guy running around with his hair on fire—had to become the party’s 2016 thought leader.
Bernie Sanders has, in a way, had the wit to see this, which is why he said he is reaching out to Trump supporters.
Reaching out. What a concept.
Sources: Wall Street Journal, The Atlantic, Youtube
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