Explaining The Times’s Battleground State Ratings
Six months before Election Day, nine states that President Obama carried four years ago are now firmly up for grabs in the latest New York Times ranking of key battleground states, while Mitt Romney holds an early advantage in two other states the president won in 2008.
As the general election race intensifies, Mr. Obama begins with a slim edge in several critical states and has a variety of paths to winning re-election, according to the Times analysis of electoral votes.
But there are considerable opportunities for Mr. Romney, whose candidacy is in a position of strength in enough states where a victory could deny the president a second term.
The Times ratings, which will be reviewed periodically throughout the campaign, find nine states are locked in the tossup category: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
In the quest to win the necessary 270 electoral votes, the president has 185 solidly on the Democratic side and Mr. Romney has 158 in safe Republican territory.
The analysis finds 115 electoral votes in the tossup category, with 32 leaning Democratic and 48 leaning Republican.
The Times rankings are based on interviews with Republican and Democratic strategists and the economic climate, political volatility, polling and electoral history in each state.
Here is a brief rationale for the current collection of toss-up states:
Colorado:
The president’s victory here in 2008 was among his favorites, after the state had voted Republican in eight of the nine prior presidential races. A wariness of big government is testing Mr. Obama this time, but Mr. Romney faces his own challenge appealing to independents and women, whose support was critical to Democratic wins in races for the Senate and governor in 2010.
Florida:
A wave of home foreclosures and a sour economy has complicated Mr. Obama’s path to a repeat victory here.
A growing number of conservative retirees offer Mr. Romney hope, but the outcome could hinge on whether he can win over Hispanic voters, particularly younger Cuban Americans in southern Florida and Puerto Ricans in central Florida.
Iowa:
The state that paved Mr. Obama’s path to the presidency could complicate his re-election, despite an economy that is more robust than many other states. Mr. Romney faces a challenge of exciting evangelical voters who did not support him earlier this year at the Iowa caucuses. In a close race, these six electoral votes are critical to both sides.
New Hampshire:
The president is leading in some early polls, but the state is too volatile to make any predictions at this point.
Mr. Romney has been seen as a favorite son, having been governor in the state next door, Massachusetts.
The Republican gains in 2010 have created a backlash among some Democrats in a state that will be a backdrop for the presidential campaign.
Nevada:
The Romney campaign has a ready-made laboratory to argue that the policies of the Obama administration have not worked, particularly in a state with the nation’s highest rates of home foreclosure and unemployment.
But the president is traveling to the state again and again, hoping his appeal to Hispanic and lower-income voters will deliver the state again.
Ohio:
It is hard to picture Mr. Romney winning the White House without Ohio.
An improving economy could help Mr. Obama, particularly with a revival in the auto industry, but the state’s conservative leanings still pose a significant challenge.
It will likely break late, with neither candidate winning the early enthusiasm race.
Pennsylvania:
Republicans have lost the last five presidential elections here, but it is not an automatic lock for Mr. Obama. Democrats have an edge in voter registration, but new voting laws concern party leaders.
This state could eventually lean Democratic as the campaign moves along, but the president has yet to prove that the key independent voters will be on his side.
Virginia:
The population shifts in Northern Virginia are changing the state’s political demographics. The president carried the state by seven percentage points in 2008, but that margin belies the true fight underway in the state this time.
This is one of the states Mr. Romney needs to put back in the Republican column if he is to be elected.
Wisconsin:
The political climate here is volatile, given the June recall election of Gov. Scott Walker, a Republican.
A flood of outside money – pro-union and antiunion – has created a charged dynamic.
The president has an early edge over Mr. Romney, but the environment is too uncertain to safely move the state into the Democratic-leaning column.
The Times rankings also include four states that lean Democratic, including Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Maine, which allows its electoral votes to be divided and Mr. Romney is fighting for at least one.
In this group, Michigan and New Mexico are the most competitive and could become true tossups as the race progresses.
In an interview last year, Mr. Romney declined to commit to competing aggressively in his native Michigan, saying he would make his determination on the state of the race rather than family sentiment.
This state is worth watching closely.
The Times rankings also include four states that are leaning Republican, including Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina.
(One electoral vote in Nebraska, which also allows its allocation to be divided, is also included in this category, after Mr. Obama won it in 2008.)
In this group, North Carolina is the most competitive and could become a toss-up as the campaign develops.
Four years ago, Mr. Obama narrowly carried the state and is aggressively targeting it again.
Arizona is another state to watch, with the president’s re-election team sizing it up over the summer to see if it is worth making a full investment in the fall.
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Sources: AP, ABC News, AlJazeera English, CBS News, CNN, McClatchy Newspapers, NY Times, Youtube, Google Maps
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