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Sunday, April 4, 2010

N.C. GOP Vows To Take Back State In 2010 With Obama's Low Ratings

Public Policy Polling Data Shows Favorable Climate For GOP In 2010

It's still looking like 2010 could be a good year for the Republican Party in North Carolina, a new polls shows.

Public Policy Polling -- which does work for Democratic candidates but which has high credibility because of its accuracy in assessing various races, says the atmosphere in this state remains favorable for the Grand Old Party. The situation is stable right now, and Barack Obama's disapproval rates bode well for Sen. Richard Burr's reelection campaign, the firm says.

That reinforces that conclusions of other pollsters and analysts that it's Republicans' election to lose. Not everyone is persuaded, of course. Some analysts think Republicans are overplaying their hand on opposition to the new health care reform bill, and that voters are much less interested in the Republican ideology than they are in electing people who will get things done. Of course, the GOP primary is a lot different from a general election in November, and a lot of things can change before then.

In any case, here's PPP analyst Tom Jennings's latest thoughts:

"Although plenty has happened in politics both nationally and in North Carolina over the last six months, there's been virtually no change in the major indicators that will predict what happens in this fall's elections.

"In September Republicans had a 43-42 lead on the generic legislative ballot. In March it was a 42-42 tie. The GOP continues to have its best chance since 1994 of reclaiming control of the General Assembly, thanks in particular to a continual strong advantage with independents. But Democrats are looking better here than they are in a lot of other states and still maintain a large degree of support.

"Feelings about Barack Obama will go a long way this fall toward determining both Richard Burr's fate and the balance of power in Raleigh, and his numbers are pretty static as well.

In September his approval rating was 45% and now it's 46%. The prospects of North Carolina Democrats for this year took a nosedive over the course of last summer but the bleeding stopped in the fall and things have remained pretty much unchanged since then.

"In North Carolina's premier race for this year, Richard Burr's approval rating stood at 38% in September and is pretty much unchanged now at 35%. Burr's fate may end up being determined more by Obama's approval numbers than his own. If the majority of North Carolina voters continue to disapprove of the President, it's unlikely the state is going to elect a Democratic Senator this year. But if Obama gets back in positive territory or can just break even the prospects of the eventual Democratic nominee will be pretty good.

"Stability is the story in the North Carolina political landscape right now."

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Obama's Approval Ratings Still Negative In North Carolina

Pres. Barack Obama’s approval rating in North Carolina continues to be in negative territory, with 46% of voters in the state giving him good marks while 49% say they’re unhappy with the job he’s doing.

Obama’s North Carolina numbers have been on positive ground only once since July. He
continues to have pretty good numbers with Democrats at 77% approving and 18%
disapproving. But support from Republicans is nonexistent at a 7/89 spread, and
Independents are arrayed against him by a 41/50 margin right now as well.

One of Obama’s biggest problems is that voters don’t feel their personal economic
situations have improved since he took office. 51% say things have gotten worse for
them over the last year compared to just 10% who say they’ve gotten better and 39% who say things are about the same.

There is not a ton of optimism that things will be better a year from now either. 38%
believe their situations will remain static while 35% think they will become worse and only 27% think they will improve.

North Carolinians are currently pretty divided about how they will vote for Congress this year with 43% saying they’ll go Republican and 42% saying they’ll support Democrats.

“The simple truth is that Barack Obama’s approval rating in North Carolina is not going to get back over 50% until the economy starts really improving,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That will have much more influence on his popularity than any other factor.”

PPP surveyed 878 North Carolina voters from March 12th to 15th. The survey’s margin
of error is +/-3.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Paul Stam Says Bev Perdue Stole GOP Idea On Detecting/ Eliminating Medicaid Fraud

Republican lawmakers are complaining that Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue stole their idea when she announced the other day that the state would form a partnership with IBM to investigate Medicaid fraud.

House Republican leader Paul "Skip" Stam of Apex said that when then GOP state Sen. Robert Pittenger of Charlotte offered a bill in 2003 to do the same thing, Perdue, then the lieutenant governor, did nothing to support it, Rob Christensen reports.

Stam also noted that in 2009 he and Rep. John Blust of Greensboro and Nelson Dollar of Cary offered similar legislation that was included in a different form the budget bill.

"Republicans were delighted that the Democrats finally agreed that it was time to save money," Stam said.

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Sources: Public Policy Polling, WRAL, MSNBC, McClatchy Newspapers, Facebook, NC GOP, Youtube, Google Maps

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