Charlie Crist's Possible Independent Bid vs His Top Campaign Donors

Charlie Crist Supporters Torn Over Independent Bid


Some of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s top fundraisers are warning that they will no longer support him if he bolts the Republican Party to run for the Senate as an independent.

It's not entirely clear what his intentions are, but with his Veto Thursday of an Education Reform bill favored by Republicans and repeated refusal all week to say whether he still would seek the GOP nomination, Crist has ratcheted speculation to a fever pitch.

He has until April 30 to decide whether he’ll stay in a primary in which he trails former state House Speaker Marco Rubio by over 20 points or pursue a third-party candidacy.

If he abandons the GOP race, a group of his most prominent supporters indicate they will not follow him.

“I’m a Republican and I’m going to support the Republican candidate,” said John Rood, the state GOP finance chairman, a former ambassador to the Bahamas and one of Florida’s biggest contributors to Republican causes.

Rood, who noted that he was a supporter of the education bill the governor vetoed, said he was hopeful that Crist would stay in the GOP and would be “very disappointed” if he left the party.

“I’m loyal to Republicans,” he said.

Al Cardenas, a former state GOP chairman and Crist backer, also said he wouldn’t back the governor as an independent but went even further, suggesting that Crist should consider dropping out of the race.

“The most dignified posture from my perspective is to acknowledge the primary is not going to happen and keep his options open for the future. At this point, that’s what’s best for him,” said Cardenas, who is close to former Gov. Jeb Bush—Rubio’s mentor. “I imagine it’s a great struggle for him. If you give a recent unbiased analysis of the race, barring anything unforeseen, it’s hard to figure out a game plan where the governor would win the primary.”

Other top Crist donors are torn between their longstanding loyalty to the party and their friendship with the governor.

“I’m in kind of an awkward spot,” explained Al Austin, one of country’s top GOP donors and a Tampa developer who attended Crist’s 2008 wedding.

Austin initially said: “Right now I’m still leaning toward supporting my friend, Charlie.”

But pressed, he concluded: “I’d either probably stay neutral or—I don’t know what I’d do.”

Austin, though, may have an easy out—he’s working on bringing the 2012 GOP convention to his hometown and said he may just focus his attention on that project.

“Most of my energy is involved in that,” he said.

Other Crist supporters are equally torn, if less expansive.

Jordan Zimmerman, a Boca Raton advertising executive and co-owner of the Florida Panthers hockey team who has hosted a fundraiser for Crist in his home, paused and audibly sighed before answering a question about what he’d do if the governor bolts the GOP

“I think I’d rather not comment at this time,” Zimmerman said.

But asked if he would prefer Crist stay in the primary and run as a Republican, Zimmerman didn’t hesitate: “Oh absolutely, yes.”

Sarasota-area Rep. Vern Buchanan, who came out for Crist early, was also non-committal.

“We are waiting to see what Charlie does,” said a Buchanan spokeswoman.

When he was asked about his decision again Friday in Miami, Crist again demurred.

But his comments at a Tallahassee rally Thursday following his veto may have revealed his intentions—and perhaps marked the unofficial launch of his independent bid for the Senate.

“It is the voice of the people that was heard this week, and that’s what’s so important in this country,” Crist said before a group of teachers, students and a pep band outside a high school. “The most important thing is to do things right for the right reasons. Vetoing this legislation today was about trying to do what’s right. I don’t always get it right. But hell, I’m always going to try to do what’s right.

His veto cost him the support of his one-time boss and mentor, former GOP Sen. Connie Mack, who resigned his post as Crist’s campaign chair. Mack’s move surely stung Crist and carried considerable symbolic weight in Florida political circles.

But Crist’s calculation in deciding whether to run as an independent candidate will be made less on the basis of sentimentality than on a cold-eyed assessment of whether he can win in a three-man race. A Quinnipiac University poll released this week showed him with a slight lead over both Rubio and Rep. Kendrick Meek, the all-but-certain Democratic nominee.

Part of Crist’s analysis will surely factor in whether he can capture—or retain—key institutional endorsements.

And a spokesman for the Florida Education Association lauded Crist for the veto and said that it could play a role when the teachers union makes an endorsement recommendation later this summer, but remained non-committal.

“I would guess that Gov. Crist would seek our recommendation,” said FEA spokesman Mark Pudlow. “He’s a popular guy right now amongst our ranks, so I think that would certainly play into it. We haven’t agreed with everything he’s done. But certainly the veto of that bill is on the foremost on everyone’s mind.”

There would, however, be immense pressure from top national Democratic and labor officials on the FEA to support Meek.

Crist would, though, retain support from the state’s largest gun-rights group if he decided to leave the GOP.

“We support where a candidate stands on our issue, based upon their record on our issue,” said Marion Hammer, an influential lobbyist for the National Rifle Association. “We have always said we are non-partisan. It is not about the party. It is about where the candidate is on our issue.”

She added: “What he does politically with regard with this race and the party has nothing to do with where he’s always been our issue. He’s always been with us.”

But as the perpetually upbeat Crist grapples with a decision sure to remake his political career, few of those in his orbit seem to know exactly what he’s thinking—even as they acknowledge appears increasingly likely that he will run as a third-party candidate.

One adviser, plainly baffled, repeated three times: “I don’t know what’s going on.”

Another longtime friend said simply: “You can’t ever count on what Charlie Crist is going to do.”

This friend predicted Crist would “wait until the last minute to see what changes.”

Sen. George LeMieux, for years Crist's closest adviser and a former chief of staff appointed by the governor to the Senate in September 2009, surprised Florida insiders when he said in an interview with POLITICO Thursday that he disagreed with the governor’s decision to veto the education bill.

But perhaps as revealing to Florida and Washington party operatives engaging in Crist Kremlinology, was what LeMieux noted after asserting that the governor would be a GOP candidate for the Senate.

“That’s my belief," he said. “I have no information to lead me to any different conclusion.”

The very idea that LeMieux might be out of the loop as to the governor's thinking on a career-altering move is telling. Whether he's actually been cut out of the Crist inner circle or just signaling as much for public consumption, it could easily be interpreted as an attempt to insulate himself from the inevitable political fallout and protect his own future political ambitions in the event he needs to buck his patron.


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Sources: Fox News Sunday, Politico, Google Maps