Who's Still Undecided On Health Care Reform?
While the varying whip counts remain inexact and the outcome unknown, one thing is certain as the health care reform drama hurtles toward its conclusion: The last two dozen or so votes for the bill will come at considerable cost to the undecided House members who cast them.
Some of those currently uncommitted lawmakers have serious philosophical and moral concerns about the measure. But for many — almost none of whom can admit it publicly — the political calculus is undeniably playing a role in their decision-making process.
The trick, then, to understanding where these members will end up is to understand where they are coming from, because their malleability in the final hours will almost certainly be proportional to the precariousness of their political situation.
What follows is POLITICO’s guide to the undecided.
The Retirees
Political circumstances have changed for many members since the November health care vote, but especially for those who have announced their retirements in the ensuing months.
Without ballot box pressures, it will be extremely difficult for these members to turn down desperate entreaties from party leaders — or from President Barack Obama.
One retiree with no need to worry about November repercussions, Rep. Bart Gordon (D-Tenn.), already announced Thursday that he was switching from a “no” vote to a “yes.”
His experience may offer a clue to the thinking of undecided Reps. Brian Baird (D-Wash.) and John Tanner (D-Tenn.), both of whom voted “no” in November and later declined to run for another term. And it may provide some insight into the likelihood that Rep. Marion Berry (D-Ark.), a former “yes” vote, will switch and vote “no.” Having taken a hard vote already, he would be unlikely to reverse himself unless he felt the new bill did not meet his concerns over abortion.
The Nail-Biters
Among the undecided are members who sit in fairly competitive seats they have managed to lock down, in large part because they are closely attuned to their districts. Most are not considered particularly vulnerable, but under the right circumstances — such as a wave election — they could be swept under.
Some of these members opposed the House bill in November and probably don’t have the luxury of switching their vote except at tremendous political cost — this group would include Democratic Reps. Tim Holden of Pennsylvania, Lincoln Davis of Tennessee and Heath Shuler of North Carolina.
Others in this category are “yes” votes who might be reconsidering. The trick with this group — which includes Democratic Reps. Melissa Bean and Bill Foster of Illinois, Bobby Etheridge of North Carolina, Chris Carney and Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania, Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota, and Alan Mollohan of West Virginia — is for leadership to persuade them to stay on board despite the deteriorating conditions in many of their races, and figure out a way to assuage those who oppose Abortion.
The Besieged
This category is largely composed of at-risk freshmen from tough districts.
Here’s an example of the pressures they face on the health care vote: When Rep. Betsy Markey (D-Colo.) revealed Thursday that she would vote yes on the measure, she was immediately greeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee with a derisive press release referring to her as “Betsy Margolies-Mezvinsky” — a reference to Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky, the freshman congresswoman from Pennsylvania who her lost her seat in 1994 after biting the bullet for her party and casting an especially tough vote in favor of President Bill Clinton’s budget.
Other first-termers, including Democratic Reps. Thomas Perriello and Glenn Nye of Virginia, Steve Driehaus of Ohio, Larry Kissell of North Carolina and Dina Titus of Nevada also have cause for alarm, given the nature of the political challenge they face back home.
One Republican makes this list: Freshman Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao, who represents a heavily Democratic New Orleans-based district. Cao voted in favor of the November bill, then signaled he’d vote against the current version and now indicates that he’s rethinking his position after spending time with the president.
Several second-term Democrats also qualify for this designation: Rep. Brad Ellsworth of Indiana, who is currently running for the Senate, and Rep. Zack Space of Ohio, who represents a district that John McCain won easily in 2008.
None of the Democrats in the besieged category has it easy on the vote, but some have it worse than others: They will very likely be walking the plank by voting the party line. That would include Reps. Harry Teague of New Mexico and Suzanne Kosmas of Florida — both of whom voted against the November bill — as well as John Boccieri of Ohio, who faces stiff competition in a conservative-minded district.
The Misfits
Not every Democrat on the undecided list is facing a tough reelection campaign. There are a few who, at this point in the election cycle, seem in good shape, but nevertheless have given conflicting signals or publicly stated that they are undecided.
They have their own individual reasons for holding out — abortion is among them in several cases — but it’s hard to imagine Democrats getting to the magic number for passage without most, or all, of this group. For them, the political consequences are minimal compared with many in the caucus — and their colleagues and leadership know it.
Among those on this list: Reps. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, and Henry Cuellar and Solomon Ortiz of Texas.
Another member in this category is Rep. Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts, who said Thursday he will oppose the measure. The solidly Democratic nature of his district makes it likely he’ll be under strong pressure to return to the “yes” camp.
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Sources: Politico, Google Maps
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