10 Successful Governors; Bev Perdue Not Included

10 Successful Governors Dodging Voter Anger


As the nation’s governors gather in Washington for their annual winter meeting, many of them are confronting a grim picture: state budgets bathed in red ink, dwindling poll numbers and a toxic political environment back home that threatens not only their ability to govern effectively but also their political careers.

Yet at the same time, a handful in each party remain above the fray, not simply surviving in an otherwise rough environment, but thriving.

Among Democrats, Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe boasts an approval rating that tops 80 percent — in a state where hostility to the national Democratic agenda and President Barack Obama is roiling state politics.

Third-term New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch is poised to become the state’s longest-serving governor in the state in more than 200 years. In West Virginia, Gov. Joe Manchin III, who registered 78 percent approval in a September 2009 poll, is coming off the most dominant election margin for a governor in the state since the Civil War.

First-term Delaware Gov. Jack Markell, recently tapped to head the Democratic Governors Association, and Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal, who may run for an unprecedented third term., also possess enviable ratings.

Republicans can point to their own chief executives who are floating above it all. Alaska Gov. Sean Parnell, who succeeded Sarah Palin in July, is viewed positively by more than 70 percent of voters, according to a new poll released Saturday. North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven, the longest serving governor in the nation, has through-the-roof poll numbers and is regarded as a shoo-in to win the state’s open Senate seat. Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman’s stellar numbers have him often mentioned as a potential challenger to Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson in 2012. and Govs. Bobby Jindal and Haley Barbour, of Louisiana and Mississippi, respectively, have unusually strong numbers, given their high-profile and often partisan roles.

It’s no accident, governors and other close observers say, that the most popular governors at the moment tend to hail from smaller states, where governors are in closer touch — and have a more personal relationship — with voters, something that is critical to maintaining trust with an electorate that is frustrated and fearful of its economic circumstances.

“Arkansas is conducive to creating a closer bond between a governor and a huge chunk of the electorate,” Beebe, a first-term Democrat who is cruising to reelection in November, told POLITICO in an interview Saturday. “And as a result of that, if you do it right, you start to form personal allegiances that can transcend mistakes and can transcend differences and can overcome obstacles — and I think I’m the beneficiary of that.”

“You develop interpersonal relationships with people closer than you can do in a state with 25 million people. I mean, the governor of Texas can’t have the kind of significant relationship with the huge amount of the electorate that a governor of Arkansas can.”

The political circumstances in the nation’s largest states underscore Beebe’s contention. Texas Gov. Rick Perry is currently fighting off several challengers in a competitive three-way GOP primary March 2. California GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is staring down a debilitating budget deficit and is estranged from both parties. New York Gov. David Paterson, whose poll numbers have plummeted since assuming office in 2008, is considered so wounded that even the White House weighed in to encourage him not to seek election to a first full term.

Other big-state governors are similarly wrestling with challenges that have limited their effectiveness. In Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn, still saddled with the taint from his predecessor Rod Blagojevich, narrowly fended off a Democratic primary challenger earlier this month. Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, once considered a lock to win an open Florida Senate seat, suddenly finds himself in a GOP primary dogfight. Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, who has been forced to confront the state’s staggeringly high unemployment rate, has seen her approval ratings dip into the low 30s.

“In a big state, governors have a particularly tough time making their case to the people. Not only do they have to work many media markets, but state government is a low priority for news organizations. Indeed, the number of reporters covering statehouses is plunging,” said John J. Pitney Jr., a Claremont McKenna College political scientist who has written extensively about national and state politics. “In California, the only TV stations with Sacramento bureaus are the local Sacramento stations. So when governors have to justify painful decisions, few constituents will hear them. In smaller states, it’s easier for governors to reach the people and explain what they’re doing.”

Markell, a 49-year-old former state treasurer, told POLITICO in an interview at the National Governors Association winter meeting that a small state fosters an unusually close connection with voters that is valuable in times of economic uncertainty.

“In a small state, it’s easier because people have access to me. Somebody wants to get me, they get me. They call on the phone. They call me at home; they call me in the office, and they get a response, certainly within hours, if not minutes. So, I think that makes a difference. People get that.”

At a time of rising concern over the level of debt and government spending, incumbents who have established themselves as tight-fisted budget stewards, or those who have cut or avoided raising taxes, also appear to be reaping the rewards.

Hoeven, a third-term governor who in 2008 was reelected with the largest margin of victory for a North Dakota governor in more than a half-century, has pushed forward some of the largest tax cuts in his state’s history.

Democrats like Freudenthal and Manchin, both of whom have whom have overseen an array of tax cuts while keeping their state’s fiscal house in order, have been insulated from the criticisms about government spending that are weighing down their Democratic colleagues elsewhere.

“The reason you see some Democratic governors doing better than Democrats in Washington is because they have carved out a brand of being fiscally conservative,” noted Brad Todd, a GOP strategist who is a veteran of gubernatorial battles.

“People want to see results,” Manchin, who is coming off a 44-point re-election victory, explained to POLITICO on Saturday, ticking off a long list of fiscal accomplishments under his watch. “They don’t want to see crazy spending.”

It helps, of course, that some of the golden governors are the beneficiaries of economic good fortune, steering states with economies that haven’t been devastated by the economic downturn.

North Dakota’s unemployment stands at just 4.3 percent, less than half the national average of 9.7 percent. Nebraska’s unemployment rate is 4.5 percent. New Hampshire’s is 6.7 percent.

While acknowledging that his coal-oriented state faces economic challenges, Manchin is quick to point to the state’s fiscal position. “It’s one of the best in the country. I’ve got more cash than anyone in the history of the state. We’re in the best position we’ve been in 150 years,” he said.

“In some states, the economy is not so great, but it’s not horrific,” explained longtime Southern California-based GOP ad man Fred Davis. “If they’re a state with a decent economy, and they’re a people’s governor, then they’re in great shape.”

Style also plays an undeniable role, with governors who have been able to maintain a steady public image and communicate their message effectively through choppy waters tending to emerge unscathed.

Unlike several other first-term Democratic governors who have seen their political fortunes take a nose dive after failing to effectively explain a series of budget cuts, Beebe has prospered by crafting an image as a straight-shooting populist, cautious and competent after years of experience as an Arkansas state legislator and as state attorney general.

“He set very real expectations for his administration. He didn’t get caught up in overpromising in his campaign,” explained Harrison Hickman, a veteran Democratic pollster who works for Beebe. “It’s not very complicated. He kept the promises he made.”

For Alaska’s Parnell, who took office after the high-voltage Sarah Palin stepped down last summer, the key to his popularity seems to derive in part from his projection of a low-key, no-drama governance style.

Even when asked to elaborate on his strong poll ratings, a topic most politicians would gladly offer a discourse on, Parnell remained in character.

“I’m focused on the people,” Parnell told POLITICO after a Saturday policy hearing at the winter meeting. “I’m gonna focus on representing them well and doing a good job for them.”









NC Election Board Working On Flights Investigation


There's no timetable yet on when the State Board of Elections will finish an investigation into 31 previously undisclosed flights by Gov. Beverly Perdue's campaign or potentially more candidates, the board's executive director said Wednesday.

Gary Bartlett's comments came after state Republican Party Chairman Tom Fetzer held a news conference to announce he had asked the board to expand its probe of The Bev Perdue Committee to examine more contributions she received during her successful 2008 campaign.

Fetzer also wants the board to treat 31 private flights that Bev Perdue's campaign disclosed over the past six months in a similar manner to the dozens of unreported campaign flights for former Gov. Mike Easley made public during a board hearing. The board fined Easley's campaign $100,000 in October for those flights.

"There is an established pattern of questionable behavior from the Perdue Committee - behavior shockingly similar to that of the Easley Committee - and that behavior warrants investigation," Fetzer said.

Perdue said later Wednesday there's a difference between the flights her campaign has reported and those of the former governor - she's reporting the flights on her own as part of a yearlong audit she paid for after a campaign accounting software switch revealed problems.

"I have consistently self-reported for the last year. Other campaigns have not done that," Perdue told reporters. "My campaign has done everything that I can do fiscally to make sure that everything was done correctly."

Bartlett said his staff has been looking for months at issues cited in two complaints that Fetzer filed in the fall. Fetzer released a board letter this week confirming the probe. The board is obligated by law to review complaints.

Bartlett, who doesn't know when the board's probe will be completed, is also seeking data about campaign flights from 16 other gubernatorial candidates going back to 2004 as part of its investigation. During Easley's hearing, the state Democratic Party suggested that Republican candidates for governor hadn't reported some flights, too.

"I don't think it would be fair to single her out," Bartlett said.


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Sources: Politico, McClatchy Newspapers, WRAL, Public Policy Polling, Whitehouse.gov, Youtube, Google Maps