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Obama Comments On Sen. Dorgan's Retirement
From the White House, three hours after Dorgan's own statement -- in a mark of by how much this took the Democratic leadership by surprise:
Senator Dorgan should be very proud of his more than 30 years of devoted service in the United States Congress and to the people of North Dakota. From fighting for our energy future to standing with North Dakota’s families through difficult economic times, Senator Dorgan has been a trusted leader for the people of his state.
He has also been a champion for our family farmers and a powerful voice for Indian Country – particularly through his recent work to improve Indian health care services. Michelle and I extend our gratitude for his service to our nation and our very best wishes for the future for him and his family.
Byron Dorgan's Announcement Surprises Democrats
Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) announced Tuesday night that he would retire rather than run for re-election this year, a surprise move that imperils the Democrats' 60-seat majority next year.
Dorgan wasn't facing any serious opposition in what would have been a campaign for his fourth term, but North Dakota’s popular Republican Gov. John Hoeven is considering a bid and was leading in early polls.
In disclosing his decision to his staff via memo Tuesday, Dorgan insisted that he was not retiring to forestall defeat in November.
“This decision is not a reflection of any dissatisfaction with my work in the Senate, nor is it connected to a potential election contest next fall (frankly, I believe if I were to run for another term I would be reelected),” Dorgan wrote to his staff.
“But the truth is in recent months, even as I have prepared for a reelection campaign, I have wrestled with the question of whether I really wanted to make a commitment to serve another seven years in the Senate (next year plus a new six year term) following the 30 years I have already served in Congress plus the 10 years I served in elected office in the State Capitol prior to that.”
Dorgan said he made his decision over the holidays, but he appeared to catch much of his party and even his own staff off guard. With an apology for how he was sharing the news, he informed his aides of his decision through an email from his chief of staff just minutes before his office put out a statement with the announcement.
Similarly, the Senate leadership and campaign committee had little warning of Dorgan’s retirement – the first by a Senate Democrat this cycle. Dorgan had already made up his mind by the time he informed Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, according to sources close to the leader. And while the White House was aware of Dorgan’s decision, the president wasn’t able to talk to his former colleague before the news broke, according to a senior Democrat.
He hadn’t given any sign before the holiday recess that he was considering retirement and he’d even been raising money for his re-election campaign.
"It caught us totally by surprise," said an aide to one top Senate Democrat. "We had no idea this was coming. Total stunner."
Dorgan’s wife, Kimberly, a senior executive at the American Council of Life Insurers, wasn’t enthusiastic about her husband's running for another term, according to a source close to the senator.
With Dorgan out of the race now, North Dakota becomes a prime pickup opportunity for Senate Republicans. The Cook Political Report has already changed its rating of the race to “Lean Republican” and is calling it one of the Republicans’ “best opportunities to pick up a Democratic-held seat in 2010.”
Dorgan, who previously served as his state’s tax commissioner and as its sole representative in the House, was still a popular figure at home. But North Dakota has been reliably Republican at the presidential level, giving John McCain 53 percent of the vote in 2008, and Hoeven could be difficult to beat should he get in.
The governor was giving serious consideration to entering the race before the incumbent’s retirement announcement, according to several GOP operatives, and Dorgan’s decision is expected to make his decision to run more likely. But as of Tuesday night, Hoeven himself was mum.
Hoeven, who is serving his ninth year in Bismarck and is the longest-serving chief executive in the country, has benefited from the state’s relative economic prosperity in the midst of the recession. North Dakota has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country.
A December Rasmussen poll underlined the governor's strong standing, showing him leading Dorgan by 22 points, 58 percent to 36 percent. The same poll, however, showed Dorgan still viewed favorably by a majority of his North Dakota constituents.
“My assessment was that if Byron had run it would be been a very competitive and close race, which Byron would have won in the end,” said Dorgan pollster Geoff Garin. “North Dakotans know that they have a very effective and independent senator in Byron, and he is someone who never lost his sense of connection with the average person in North Dakota.”
With Dorgan retiring, Democrats may turn to Rep. Earl Pomeroy, the state’s lone House member, who has proven to be resilient in fending off GOP challengers over his nine terms in the House. In a statement Tuesday night, Pomeroy only offered praise for Dorgan and made no mention of his own intentions. His spokesperson didn't respond when asked if the congressman was interested in the Senate seat.
A senior House Democratic aide said that Pomeroy has indicated to staff that he’s remaining in the House, although he’s sure to receive overtures from the White House and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee urging him to consider otherwise.
Heidi Heitkamp, a former North Dakota attorney general and tax commissioner who was defeated by Hoeven in the 2000 gubernatorial race, is another potential candidate.
Dorgan, 67, has spent his career in the Senate forging his own brand of prairie populism. He is a harsh critic of free trade, blames Wall Street greed for the country’s economic woes and still touts his lonely vote in 1999 against the Clinton administration’s deregulation of the financial industry. In 2006, he penned a book that summed up his disgust with the country's economic policies: “Take This Job And Ship It.” Such positions earned him widespread support in North Dakota, where he won each of his three Senate races by double-digits.
But under the Obama administration and a Democratic-controlled Congress, Dorgan has had to toe a fine line. He opposed the administration’s cap-and-trade energy bill — almost a political imperative in his energy-producing state — but has argued for the need to cap carbon emissions. He voted for the stimulus package — but only before unsuccessfully advancing an amendment that would have required that only U.S. goods be used for infrastructure projects.
Multiple Democratic sources said Dorgan seemed tired of the Senate grind and, after decades in elected office, was ready to leave public life.
Republicans were jubilant over Dorgan’s decision, saying it underlined the difficulties Democrats face heading into the mid-terms as Obama’s approval ratings fall and concern over federal spending grows.
“This development is indicative of the difficult environment and slumping approval ratings that Democrats face as a result of their out of control tax-and-spend agenda in Washington, and we fully intend to capitalize on this opportunity by continuing to recruit strong candidates who can win these seats in November,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brian Walsh.
And while Dorgan is the first Senate Democrat to retire, his decision comes after a group of veteran House Democrats from potentially competitive seats announced that they would retire, and one, vulnerable Alabama freshman Rep. Parker Griffith, changed parties altogether.
Dorgan’s decision makes for a bleaker picture for Senate Democrats, some of whose most entrenched members were already looking highly vulnerable this fall. Republicans are already aggressively challenging Reid, Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), and public polling shows them each trailing their Republican challengers.
Polls also show Republicans with a strong shot to win the two Senate seats vacated by Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. In Delaware, moderate congressman Mike Castle is a formidable candidate and has a strong shot to pick up the vice president’s old seat, even if his son, Attorney General Beau Biden, decides to run.
And in Illinois, Rep. Mark Kirk is running competitively against state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, the leading Democratic candidate, with Democratic strategists privately concerned that they will face a challenge holding onto the president’s old seat.
Democrats are hoping to make gains in five of the six states where Senate Republicans are retiring – Ohio, New Hampshire, Missouri, Florida and Kentucky. But if it turns out to be a wave year for the GOP, all could be difficult races for Democrats – and make it that much more unlikely that they retain their filibuster-proof 60 seats.
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Sources: Politico, MSNBC, The Ed Show, Google Maps
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