Top Democrats Head For The Exits
The grim outlook for Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections just got a little worse.
Four top Democrats — including veteran Sens. Chris Dodd and Byron Dorgan — all prepared to pull the plug on their campaigns in a 24-hour period that began Tuesday, and in the process, offered an unnerving glimpse at the perilous election year ahead.
With Dorgan’s stunning retirement announcement Tuesday evening, Democrats are now facing their bleakest election outlook in years — and the very real possibility the party will lose its 60-40 Senate super majority after the November elections. On the House side, the prospect of a 20 to 30 seat loss is already looking increasingly likely.
“It’s not good news for Democrats,” said Roy Temple, a Democratic strategist. “The reality is this is going to be a challenging year, and this is an additional challenge you would prefer not to have. Because of the success of the last two cycles, there are a lot of seats to defend. This is just an additional complication.”
Dorgan’s announcement was accompanied Tuesday by Michigan Democratic Lt. Gov. John Cherry’s decision to end his floundering bid for governor, and by the revelation that both Dodd and Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter would announce Wednesday that they would not seek reelection.
There is some silver lining in the Democratic cloud: Ritter, Cherry and Dodd were all struggling to gain traction and their departures could actually increase Democratic chances of holding those offices.
Several top-tier prospects immediately surfaced in Colorado as potential Democratic candidates for governor. In Connecticut, Democrats expect that state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal will run in Dodd’s place, providing them with a stronger nominee than the embattled five-term senator.
But the retirements of two senior Democratic senators, and the suddenly altered landscapes in Michigan and Colorado, continue a wave of Democratic bailouts that began with a burst of retirements by veteran House Democrats representing competitive districts, followed by the stunning late December party switch by freshman Alabama Rep. Parker Griffith.
In the meantime, President Barack Obama’s and the Democratic Party’s poll ratings have slipped across the board, generic polling is now generally more favorable to Republicans and a handful of promising Democratic House candidates have abruptly ended their campaigns.
Suddenly, the sad sack GOP is looking at its best shot in three election cycles of making serious gains in November.
“Sen. Dorgan’s retirement coupled with the recent spate of retirements by House Democrats show the national mood is swinging against them,” said Carl Forti, a GOP strategist. “With Sen. Blanche Lincoln and others in a precarious position, Democrats will have to thread the needle to get back to 60 seats.”
In Dorgan’s case, Republicans now have a very strong chance at picking up his seat in Republican-oriented North Dakota, a state that Obama lost by eight points in 2008 and John Kerry lost by 27 points in 2004.
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Dorgan said his decision had nothing to do with his re-election campaign, where he had yet to face stiff competition — though the popular GOP Gov. John Hoeven might have jumped into the race and forced the senator to wage a fierce campaign. In the wake of Dorgan's announcement, North Dakota GOP Chairman Gary Emineth told POLITICO that he believes Hoeven is likely to run now.
In a memo to staff and later to the press, Dorgan said that he came to his decision over the holiday season and wanted to pursue interests outside politics, including writing two more books, working on energy policy and teaching.
“[M]y decision has no relationship to the prospect of a difficult election contest this year,” Dorgan said. “Frankly, I think if I had decided to run for another term in the Senate I would be reelected.”
Still, his decision forces Democrats to defend yet another open seat in addition to Delaware and Illinois — two states in which Democrats typically run up the score but where the GOP is poised to run competitive candidates this year. And it comes in a year in which Democratic incumbents including Majority Leader Harry Reid, Sen. Arlen Specter, appointed Sen. Michael Bennet and Lincoln are battling weak poll numbers.
“Remember the old Tareyton cigarette slogan? ‘I'd rather fight than switch?’” said Alex Castellanos, who advises the Republican National Committee. “Now that the Democrats are expected to drop under 60, we will probably see other retirements as Democrats decide they would rather retire than fight.”
Despite the souring outlook, Democrats are hopeful about their chances in five of the six states where Senate Republicans have their own retirement-related problems — Ohio, New Hampshire, Missouri, Florida and Kentucky. They envision a scenario in which the economy will yield job growth heading into the midterms, and expect that public perception of the party will brighten if Congress gives final approval to the Democrats’ sweeping health care bill and approves other measures on the ambitious agenda.
Some Democrats give little credence to the retirements, noting that they have no broader meaning other than the fact that individual lawmakers chose not to run for reelection.
“These guys quit sometimes,” said Jim Jordan, a Democratic strategist.
The timing — the first week of the new year — and the locales of the retirements makes them hard to dismiss as isolated incidents, however.
In Colorado, the epicenter of the recent Democratic resurgence in the interior west, it is telling that Ritter, a 53-year-old former Denver prosecutor who cruised to victory in 2006, would unexpectedly pull down the curtain on a promising career and that Bennet, the senator he appointed to a vacant Senate seat, would be in jeopardy of losing it.
In Michigan, a state battered by job losses but still a reliable Democratic bulwark in state and federal races in recent years, the heir apparent to two-term Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm is similarly quitting before even starting, unable to raise money or get out from under the shadow of what has become a deeply unpopular administration.
And back in Washington, Democrats were all but blindsided by Dorgan’s decision to retire rather than seek a fourth term in a seat that only he might have been able to hold. Neither the Senate majority leader nor the White House even had a statement prepared.
Compounding the problem for Democrats — and spreading the pain to all three Democratic campaign committees Tuesday — the one Democrat who may be able to hold Dorgan’s seat is Rep. Earl Pomeroy. But if he vacates North Dakota’s at-large seat, that would create another problem: Republicans would be positioned for another House pickup.
Stars Aligning for Republicans in North Carolina Senate
The odds for a Republican take over of the North Carolina State Senate just got a lot better. State Senator R.C. Soles (D-Tabor City), the longest serving in the Senate has announced that he will not seek re-election. It’s not that surprising that he has chosen to retire. Aside from being 75 years old, he has been plagued with two scandals, one that he molested a teen aged boy and he is facing a possible indictment for shooting someone in his home last August.
Republicans need to win six Senate seats to take over the body and Soles is another retirement that may make that possible. The district has been trending towards the GOP and Soles opponent last year, Bettie Fennell, came considerably close to defeating him. Soles’ retirement is in addition to a few other Democrat retirements who also represent Republican friendly districts.
Senator David Hoyle of Gastonia represents a heavily Republican leaning district that the GOP will almost certainly pick up. Senator Julia Boseman of Wilmington who like Soles has been embroiled in personal conflicts has also decided not to run for re-election. Her predecessor was a Republican.
Who controls the state legislature next year will be vital as he who has the power controls the redistricting after the Census is completed.
Tony Rand Stepping Down From NC Senate
NC State Sen. Tony Rand, one of the most powerful political figures in the state, is leaving the Senate.
Rand, a Fayetteville Democrat, will become chairman of the state Parole Board, Mark Johnson reports. He will resign before the end of the year.
“There comes a time when it’s time to go,” Rand said.
The News & Observer
His time to go was several years ago. Tony Rand had his hands directly in steering North Carolina into being the highest taxed state in the southeastern U.S., the beginning of turning the state into a northeastern rust bucket.
There will now be a fight I’m sure among the Senate Democrats to claw their way up to the top and take over as Majority Leader. That should be an interesting sight to behold. What will also be on the radar is how hard the Republicans will fight to try and win this seat when the special election is called. The GOP needs to win six Senate seats if they want to take it over in 2010 before redistricting takes place. I don’t know how heavily Democrat this seat is, but if they can pick it up that will bring them closer to their goal.
There is speculation at Katy’s Conservative Corner as to whether or not Rand’s resignation has anything to do with the recent Easley trials, but according to the N&O he is stepping down to take a position as chairman of the State Parole Board.
Grand Jury Finds Probable Cause To Indict NC Sen. R.C. Soles
R.C. Soles Jr., a N.C. State Senator from Tabor City will be indicted by a grand jury. This was reported in the News and Observer today.
The grand jury wrote in its presentment that it had reason to believe that Soles had committed a crime:
Twelve or more grand jurors concur in finding probable cause to believe that R.C. Soles, Jr. committed the offense of Assault With a Deadly Weapon Inflicting Serious Injury against Thomas Kyle Blackburn in Columbus County on or about August 23, 2009 by unlawfully, willfully and feloniously shooting Thomas Kyle Blackburn and inflicting serious injury.
Looks like we have another Democratic being taken to the woodshed. I wonder if Democrats will call for his resignation like they did the drunk Republican? Will they treat him the same as Rep. Wright?
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Sources: AP, Politico, MSNBC, Carolina Politics Online, McClatchy Newspapers, News & Observer, Star News Online, WWayTV3.com, Youtube, Google Maps
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