Obama's Afghan War "End Game" Strategy...5 Points Of Focus

Five Things The President Wants You to Hear Tonight


Reports started trickling out last night that the president will announce tonight that he is sending an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan bringing the total U.S. military presence in the war-torn country to more than 100,000. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told MSNBC this morning that the deployment will be accelerated—Obama wants the troops in quickly. The announcement isn't unexpected, but nor is it necessarily welcomed. Public support for the war has dwindled: a recent Washington Post / ABC News poll found that 52% of Americans don't think the war was worth fighting. That makes Obama's speech at West Point tonight a tough one. He's got to sell a skeptical public on a war they're growing sour on. Here's our guide to how he'll do that:


1. Lots of talk about an "End Game."

Americans don't want to think these additional troops are being sent into a prolonged, indefinite conflict. For the audience at home, Obama will stress that there is an end in sight. But it's a fine line for him to walk. Talk of withdrawal makes Pakistan nervous, and some experts warn that if Afghanis believe Americans are on their way out, then they'll shift their allegiance to local Taliban who offer them security over the longer term.


2. Tying the surge to an actual strategy.

Obama wants people to know that he's not sending troops to Afghanistan for the sake of sending troops. He'll emphasize that it's part of a larger, thought-out, tested strategy that will lead to victory. Of course he won't give out details of military strategy, but he will assure the public that he sees renewed purpose and focus in Afghanistan. And don't be surprised if there are more than a few references to the success of a similar surge as part of a counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq.


3. An emphasis on international partners.

Americans hold their exceptionalism dear, but that doesn't mean they want to go it alone. Obama has already been talking to allies about upping their stake in Afghanistan and he'll likely wax lyrical tonight about their importance in making the surge effective. America will continue to bear the biggest risk burden in Afghanistan, as it has been doing since the war began, but in terms of national morale, it helps to know the U.S. isn't alone in plunging young men and women into conflict.


4. Playing down the cost.

According to the Congressional Research Service, the Afghan conflict has already cost $227 billion. By the end of FY2010, that cost will probably rise to $300 billion. Such enormous numbers—especially during a recession and when voters are worried about the cost of health-care legislation—are bad news for Obama. Add to that the recent Washington Post ABC News Poll showing that only 44% of Americans see the war as worth its costs, and you get a conversation topic that Obama will want to give a wide berth to.


5. Linking Afghanistan to American national interest and the War on Terror.

Here's another worrying stat for Obama from that Washington Post poll: fully 64% of people think that staying in Afghanistan and pulling troops out have exactly the same impact on the risk of a terrorist attack at home. It seems that most Americans no longer relate the conflict in Afghanistan with their immediate security. That's a precarious situation for a war-time president trying to drum up support for a troop surge. Obama will need to make that link precise, succinct, and visceral. This war is about to become firmly and unmistakably his, and if Americans have lost faith in the rationale for the war, every casualty, every lost limb and every lost life will soon be hung around his neck.




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Sources: Newsweek, McClatchy Newspapers, Charlotte Observer, Politico, Washington Post, ABC News, Google Maps