(Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) discusses the cost of Health Care.)
Burr looking less vulnerable amid changing environment
The changing political environment could be helping Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) avoid a serious challenge in 2010.
Public Policy Polling, the Democratic-leaning firm based in North Carolina, just put out new numbers on Burr that show him leading a generic Democrat 45-34. Four months ago, Burr trailed that generic Democrat 41-38.
Burr has also extended his lead over all of his potential Democratic opponents to double-digits, including leading Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-N.C.) 44-33 and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall 44-32. Marshall is in the race; Etheridge is weighing it.
Burr's favorable numbers remain largely unchanged, so it doesn't appear to be anything that he's doing. But perhaps more than any other state that voted for President Obama last year, North Carolina is experiencing buyer's remorse.
Obama's approval rating in the state has sunk from around 60 percent early this year to the mid-40s, with more North Carolinians disapproving of him than approving of him.
Burr, who looked like one of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents at the beginning of the year, will likely remain a target because of his favorability numbers, but he's looking to be in better and better shape, and that could scare away someone like Etheridge.
Burr's Poll numbers looking better
There is probably no politician in the country whose fate better exemplifies the shift in the national political climate over the last four months than Richard Burr.
His approval this month comes in at a very mediocre 36% with an almost equal 35% disapproving of his work in the Senate. In June his approval spread was a nearly identical 34/35.
Despite there being no change in Burr's popularity his prospects for re-election have increased significantly. He now leads a generic Democratic candidate 45-34. He trailed 41-38 on that same June poll. So he's seen a 14 point improvement on that front over the last four months despite a stagnant approval rating.
The independents on this poll provide a fascinating prism into the current political landscape. By a 39/36 margin they disapprove of the job Burr is doing. But they then turn around and give him a 44-24 lead against a generic Democratic candidate. The pretty clear message when you see numbers like that is 'we don't like you, but we like the alternative even less.'
One number that is particularly good news for Burr on this poll is a 56-28 lead among senior citizens. They're unhappy with the Democrats on health care and tend to make up a larger portion of the electorate in midterm elections than they do in Presidential years.
In head to heads against some specific potential Democratic opponents Burr leads Bob Etheridge 44-33, Elaine Marshall 44-32, Dennis Wicker and Kenneth Lewis 44-30, Kevin Foy 45-29, and Cal Cunningham 46-27. Those leads for Burr are artificially high because there are considerably more undecided Democrats than Republicans in each of them, owing to none of the Democratic hopefuls being particularly well known statewide.
Burr's lack of personal popularity is still a problem for him- if one of the Democratic candidates mounts an unusually strong campaign or if the national political climate shifts back away from the Republicans he'll look just as vulnerable as he did earlier in the year. But for now he's in a much better position than he was for the first half of 2009.
Burr would trade seat for better economy
U.S. Sen. Richard Burr said this week he’s willing to sacrifice his seat in Congress if it would turn the economy around.
"If I was somehow magically given a chance to turn it around and not keep my seat," he said, "I would do it without hesitation."
Burr, a Winston-Salem Republican, spoke in a wide-ranging interview with the Statesville Record and Landmark this week about the economy, veterans affairs, the war in Afghanistan and health reform, Barb Barrett reports. He faces re-election in 2010.
In the interview, Burr says he worries most about the economy.
He told the Statesville paper he plans to vote in favor of extending unemployment benefits, a measure being studied in the Senate that has been opposed by some Republicans. Burr wants funding for the extension to come from the stimulus bill.
Burr earlier told Roll Call, a Capitol Hill newspaper, that he thought Americans were more interested in jobs than a check.
Burr headed to Afghanistan
Republican Sen. Richard Burr is heading to Afghanistan later this week.
News of the trip was disclosed at an economic conference Monday morning in Durham by Bob Ingram, a close friend of Burr, who introduced the senator, a Republican from Winston-Salem. No details of the trip were immediately available.
The Burr trip comes at a critical time when the administration of President Barack Obama is deciding whether to increase the U.S. troop commitment to that country to fight the Taliban.
Lewis has $184,000
Kenneth Lewis has $184,000 through the end of September.
According to federal election records through the third quarter, Lewis has raised $264,816 in his bid to win the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate and challenge Republican Sen. Richard Burr.
Notable contributors include several lawyers at Womble Carlyle, the firm where Lewis works. Other contributions came from Chapel Hill consultant Leonard Buck ($2,400), Durham investment advisor Isaac Green ($2,400) and Christopher Quinn ($2,400), president of Imprint Learning Solutions, a Durham marketing firm.
Dome will be writing posts about the campaign fundraising results for the third quarter as they become available. Burr's report for the quarter is not yet online.
N.C. secretary of state to challenge Burr
North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is the first big-name Democrat to challenge Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) in 2010.
Consultant Thomas Mills said Marshall has sent paperwork to file for the race. He said a formal announcement would be forthcoming, but that “she’s in.” The committee is a full-fledged campaign committee and not an exploratory one.
Marshall joins attorney Kenneth Lewis in the Democratic primary. Rep. Bob Etheridge, state Sen. Cal Cunningham and former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker have considered running as well.
Marshall was elected to her current post in 1996 and ran for Senate in 2002, losing the primary badly to the party’s chosen candidate, Erskine Bowles. Despite the statewide post, she has relatively low name recognition and will have to drastically increase her fundraising.
Burr’s favorability numbers haven’t been strong, and President Barack Obama’s and Sen. Kay Hagan’s (D) wins in the state in 2008 have Democrats anxious to add another one.
Who will run against Richard Burr?
When he runs for re-election next year, U.S. Sen. Richard Burr is almost sure to face a strong, well-financed Democratic opponent determined to duplicate Democrats’ success in 2008.
Burr just doesn’t know who it will be.
N.C. Attorney General Roy Cooper, the top choice of many Democratic leaders, told supporters yesterday that he will not run for Senate because he wants to remain in North Carolina. Cooper’s decision clears the path for a wide-open field of Democrats who are considering a run against Burr, a one-term senator whom many see as vulnerable.
“North Carolina is a swing state. It’s going to be competitive. You can expect millions of dollars in special-interest money to be spent,” said Paul Shumaker, a political strategist for Burr. “The Democrats did it effectively in 2008, and they’ll try to do it in 2010.”
Indeed, Democrats are feeling invigorated by last year’s success, in which Kay Hagan pulled off an upset of former Sen. Elizabeth Dole. They believe that Burr is just as vulnerable as Dole was, and they hope to unseat him with the same flood of new voters that came out in support of Barack Obama last year.
Burr’s approval rating is just 36 percent, according to a poll taken this month by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm. That’s a dangerously low number for an incumbent, and it’s nine points lower than Dole’s approval rating at the same point in the cycle two years ago. The poll, which surveyed 755 North Carolina voters, was taken from May 8 to May 10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent.
“I will tell you that this is a very winnable race,” Morgan Jackson, a strategist for Cooper, said yesterday after Cooper ruled himself out of the race. “It’s not all that different from two years ago.”
The election is still 20 months away, but both sides are laying the groundwork for a tough campaign. In the Dole-Hagan race, the combined spending by both candidates and outside groups was nearly $50 million.
The 2010 race is likely to be in line with that.
Burr, who is from Winston-Salem, has already started mailing cards to Republicans and unaffiliated voters, and he has set up a Web site targeting new voters. Those are clear signs that Burr wants to avoid the mistakes of the Dole campaign, which failed to attract many newly registered voters and got trounced by the Democratic Party’s early-voting drive.
“In 2008, the turnout program for Republicans was a 72-hour turnout program,” Shumaker said. He promised that the Burr campaign “will be doing a lot of things differently.”
Democrats, meanwhile, have already published a Web ad attacking Burr. Their most important task now is to find a candidate to run against him.
Cooper, a likable, politically moderate candidate with strong crime-fighting credentials, was aggressively recruited by party leaders. But he said in an e-mail to supporters that he wants to continue his public service
in North Carolina rather than move to Washington.
Another heavily recruited candidate, U.S. Congressman Heath Shuler, D-11th, also said recently that he will not run for Burr’s seat – though he may reconsider now that Cooper has dropped out.
If Cooper and Shuler both stay out of the race, a Democratic primary is likely.
The only person who has publicly expressed interest so far is Kenneth Lewis, a lawyer who lives in Chapel Hill and was a fundraiser for Obama last year.
Cal Cunningham, a former state senator from Lexington, is also seriously considering a run. He is an Army reservist who recently returned from Iraq, and he has been making the rounds at various Democratic functions across the state. He works as a lawyer in Winston-Salem for the law firm Kilpatrick Stockton.
“I’m getting a lot of encouragement,” Cunningham said yesterday.
Behind the scenes, the list of other names being floated as potential candidates is long. It includes other North Carolina congressmen, current and former state legislators, elected officials in the state’s executive branch – and even Elizabeth Edwards, the wife of former senator and presidential candidate John Edwards.
The situation is reminiscent of the prelude to the Dole race, when many high-profile Democrats, including then-Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, were urged to run against Dole but declined.
Finally, an initially reluctant Kay Hagan, who had little statewide name recognition, was persuaded to enter the race.
She ended up beating Dole by nine points.
“The lesson from Kay Hagan is: Step up to bat,” said Gary Pearce, a veteran Democratic consultant. “Kay Hagan stepped up to what people thought was an unlikely race. And she’s a U.S. senator.”
The Breakdown: Who might run against Burr?
Attorney General Roy Cooper’s decision not to challenge U.S. Sen. Richard Burr clears the way for a long list of other Democrats who are rumored to have some interest in running. Here are 10 of the top names being mentioned:
• Cal Cunningham, former state senator. Cunningham, a captain in the Army reserves who recently returned from Iraq, is young (just 35) but politically connected. He has been increasing his visibility lately by traveling the state and speaking at Democratic functions. He lives in Lexington and works as a lawyer in Winston-Salem.
• Walter Dalton, lieutenant governor. Dalton is a moderate Democrat and a good campaigner. After serving in the N.C. Senate, he was elected last year to be lieutenant governor, a job with high visibility but little real power.
• Bob Etheridge, U.S. congressman for the 2nd District. Etheridge is a popular congressman and former state schools superintendent. But he may be unwilling to give up his influential new assignment on the House Ways and Means Committee.
• Kenneth Lewis, a lawyer and Democratic fundraiser. Lewis publicly expressed interest earlier this year in running against Burr. He has worked on previous Senate campaigns and Barack Obama’s campaign in North Carolina.
• Elaine Marshall, North Carolina’s secretary of state. Marshall ran for U.S. Senate in 2002, losing in a Democratic primary. She is popular among women voters, a group in which Burr has polled well.
• Grier Martin, state representative from Wake County. Martin was recruited in 2008 to run against Elizabeth Dole, but he declined. Like Cunningham, he is an Army reservist, and some Democrats believe his military credentials would make him a strong candidate.
• Charles Meeker, mayor of Raleigh. Meeker is said to have ambitions for higher office, and he is popular in Raleigh, the state’s second-largest city.
• Brad Miller, U.S. congressman for the 13th District. Miller, like Martin, was heavily courted in 2008 to run against Dole. Like Martin, he declined to run and may be kicking himself.
• Richard Moore, former state treasurer. Moore lost the Democratic nomination for governor last year in a tough primary against Bev Perdue. He may not want to risk another loss, but he is ambitious and charismatic.
• Heath Shuler, U.S. congressman for the 11th District. Along with Cooper, Shuler was considered a top choice among party leaders to challenge Burr, but Shuler said recently he is not planning on running. With Cooper out, Shuler could reconsider.
Senate Democrats Lose Top Recruit in NC
North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper announced today that he will not challenge Sen. Richard Burr (R) in 2010, robbing Democrats of a top recruit in a state President Barack Obama carried in 2008.
"While I am honored by the encouragement I've received, I don't want to go to Washington and serve as a U.S. Senator at this time," said Cooper in a statement. "I am committed to public service and I want to serve here in North Carolina rather than in Washington."
Knowledgeable Tarheel State strategists said Cooper's decision was based heavily on his desire to be governor and his interest in staying in state rather than federal office in order to accomplish that goal. (Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue was elected in 2008 and will likely stand for a second term in 2012 so Cooper has a while to wait.)
Without Cooper, the Democratic bench is somewhat thin.
Reps. Bobby Etheridge and Heath Shuler, who has already said no to the Senate once, as well as former state Treasurer Richard Moore, who lost a primary to Perdue in 2008, is also mentioned.
But Cooper was a "A" candidate who was running even with Burr in polling and not getting him forces Democrats into a re-recruitment effort that is unwelcome at this point in the cycle. (It's worth remembering that Sen. Kay Hagan was far from national Democrats first choice as a candidate in 2008 but went on to beat then Sen. Elizabeth Dole anyway.)
Senate Democratic recruiting is off to a decent but not stellar start. In addition to Cooper, Florida chief financial officer Alex Sink took a pass on the Sunshine State's open seat (she is now running for governor), and former Commerce Secretary Bill Daley decided against a run in Illinois. (That could be a blessing in disguise, however, as state Attorney General Lisa Madigan, the strongest potential Democratic candidate, is re-considering a Senate bid.)
The clear recruiting successes to this point are in Missouri -- where Secretary of State Robin Carnahan has cleared the field -- and New Hampshire where Rep. Paul Hodes will have a clear shot at the Democratic nomination. Florida Rep. Kendrick Meek wasn't the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's first choice but early returns suggest he will be a solid candidate.
Several primaries are shaping up for Senate Democrats including in Kentucky and Ohio. In each state, two statewide officeholders are preparing to face off against each other.
Democrats got some good primary news late this afternoon when Rep. Steve Israel decided against challenging appointed New York Sen. Kirstin Gillibrand in a Democratic primary.
"In the interest of providing New York and our country with a united front for progressive change, I have decided to continue my efforts in Congress and not pursue a campaign for the U.S. Senate," said Israel.
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Sources: McClatchy Newspapers, Under The Dome, Charlotte Observer, The Fix, The Hill, Roll Call, Public Policy Polling, Senate.gov, Politics.MyNC.com, The Heritage Foundation, This Old State, Youtube, Google Maps
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