(Labor pains: Jobless rate hits 9.8 percent. At a time when much of President Barack Obama's focus has been on foreign policy decisions, Friday's jobs report served as a bleak a reminder of the country's most pressing domestic issue.)
Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy
As Layoffs Persist, Good Jobs Go Unfilled
In a brutal job market, here's a task that might sound easy: Fill jobs in nursing, engineering and energy research that pay $55,000 to $60,000, plus benefits.
Yet even with 15 million people hunting for work, even with the unemployment rate nearing 10 percent, some employers can't find enough qualified people for good-paying career jobs.
Ask Steve Jones, a hospital recruiter in Indianapolis who's struggling to find qualified nurses, pharmacists and MRI technicians. Or Ed Baker, who's looking to hire at a U.S. Energy Department research lab in Richland, Wash., for $60,000 each.
Economists say the main problem is a mismatch between available work and people qualified to do it. Millions of jobs with attractive pay and benefits that once drew legions of workers to the auto industry, construction, Wall Street and other sectors are gone, probably for good. And those who lost those jobs generally lack the right experience for new positions popping up in health care, energy and engineering.
Many of these specialized jobs were hard to fill even before the recession. But during downturns, recruiters tend to become even choosier, less willing to take financial risks on untested workers.
The mismatch between job opening and job seeker is likely to persist even as the economy strengthens and begins to add jobs. It also will make it harder for the unemployment rate, now at 9.8 percent, to drop down to a healthier level.
"Workers are going to have to find not just a new company, but a new industry," said Sophia Koropeckyj, managing director of Moody's Economy.com "A fifty-year-old guy who has been screwing bolts into the side of a car panel is not going to be able to become a health care administrator overnight."
It's become especially hard to find accountants, health care workers, software sales representatives, actuaries, data analysts, physical therapists and electrical engineers, labor analysts say. And employers that demand highly specialized training – like biotech firms that need plant scientists or energy companies that need geotechnical engineers to build offshore platforms – struggle even more to fill jobs.
The trend has been intensified by the speed of the job market decline, Koropeckyj said. The nation has lost a net 7.6 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. Yet it can take a year or more for a laid-off worker to gain the training and education to switch industries. That means health care jobs are going unfilled even as laid-off workers in the auto, construction or financial services industries seek work.
"So we have this army of the unemployed" without the necessary skills, Koropeckyj said.
Sitting in his office overlooking the Clarian Health complex, Jones leafed through some of the applications he's received. One came from a hotel worker who listed his experience as, "Cleaning rooms; make beds, clean tubes, vacuum." Another was from a fitness instructor whose past duties included signing up gym members.
Many of the jobless seem to be applying for any opening they see, Jones said.
"You just don't have the supply to fill those particular positions," he said of the more than 200 "critical" jobs he needs to fill at Clarian, including nurses, pharmacists, MRI technicians and ultrasound technologists.
Contributing to the problem is that in a tough economy, employers take longer to assess applicants and make a hiring decision. By contrast, "in a healthier economy, you don't wait around for the perfect person," said Lawrence Katz, a professor of labor economics at Harvard.
To be sure, employers in most sectors of the economy are having no trouble filling jobs – especially those, like receptionists, hotel managers or retail clerks, that don't require specialized skills.
But as more jobs vanish for good, the gap between the unemployed and the requirements of today's job openings is widening. Throughout the economy, an average of six people now compete for each job opening – the highest ratio on government records dating to 2000.
Sifting through applications for jobs at the U.S. Energy Department's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Washington state, Baker said he sees "people that have worked in other areas, and now they're trying to apply that skill set to the energy arena."
"Unfortunately, that's not the skill set we need."
The jobs opened up after the lab received federal stimulus money to research energy-efficient buildings. Baker needs employees with backgrounds in city management and a grasp of the building codes needed to design energy-efficient buildings. Yet even a salary of $140,000 for senior researchers isn't drawing enough qualified applicants.
Baker said he's getting resumes from well-educated people, including some from information technology workers who want to enter the green-energy field. But he said it could take a year to get an unqualified employee up to speed on all the building codes they need to know.
"We're running out of people to train" new employees, he said. "We simply cannot attract enough (qualified) people."
The lab has hired a recruiter for the first time to fill dozens of positions. Rob Dromgoole, the recruiter, is going so far as to make cold calls to college professors. He's also visiting academic conferences to pitch jobs.
The trend has left jobseekers like Joe Sladek anxious and frustrated. Sladek's 23 years in the auto industry haven't helped his efforts to land a job in alternative energy since he was laid off a year ago.
As a quality control engineer for auto supplier Dura Automotive Systems Inc. in Mancelona, Mich., he made about $75,000. Sladek would review technical reports to make sure the factory's auto parts matched the specifications of clients like General Motors and Toyota.
He hoped to parlay that experience into a similar job at a factory making windmill blades or solar panels. Several factories were hiring, and Sladek landed a few interviews. But he never heard back.
At PricewaterhouseCoopers in Chicago, there's a shortage of qualified applicants for management jobs in tax services, auditing and consulting. Rod Adams, the company's recruiting leader, said huge pay packages on Wall Street siphoned off lots of business school graduates earlier this decade.
"That made our pipeline more scarce," he said.
Some of the openings at PricewaterhouseCoopers pay around $100,000 and don't even require graduate degrees – just specialized accounting certifications or other credentials.
Formerly successful bankers or hedge fund managers don't necessarily qualify.
"We've gotten a lot more resumes, but they haven't been the right people," Adams said.
Pres. Obama Looks To Fix Safety Net As Unemployment Rate Rises
With unemployment expected to rise well into next year even as the economy slowly recovers, the Obama administration and Democratic leaders in Congress are discussing extending several safety net programs as well as proposing new tax incentives for businesses to renew hiring.
President Obama’s economic team discussed a wide range of ideas at a meeting on Monday, following his Saturday radio address in which he said it would “explore additional options to promote job creation.” But officials emphasized that a decision was still faroff and that in any event the effort would not add up to a second economic stimulus package, only an extension of the first.
“We’re thinking through all additional potential strategies for accelerating job creation,” said Mr. Obama’s senior adviser, David Axelrod.
The latest deliberations, and Mr. Obama’s added phrase in Saturday’s radio address, occurred against a backdrop of worsening joblessness. While some economists and policy makers say the recession is easing, a report on Friday showed unemployment in September inched up to 9.8 percent, a 26-year high.
Among the options for additional steps is some variation on Mr. Obama’s proposal during the stimulus debate to give employers a $3,000 tax credit for each new hire, which Congress rejected last winter partly out of concern that businesses would manipulate their payrolls to claim the credit. Another option would allow more businesses to deduct their net operating losses going back five years instead of the usual two; Congress limited the break to small businesses as part of the economic stimulus law.
The search for further remedies is part of a two-track effort in the White House and Congress. Democrats are also considering plans to continue through 2010 the extra unemployment assistance and health benefits available to people who are out of work for long periods. Also likely to be retained, some officials say, is a popular $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers that was included in the $787 billion stimulus law and has helped rouse a housing market that nonetheless remains shaky.
The unemployment and health benefits are otherwise due to expire at the end of this year, and the homebuyer’s credit at the end of November. Extending the unemployment and health benefits alone through next year could cost up to $100 billion. Additional measures would raise the price at a time when the White House and Congress are confronting growing pressure to avoid adding to already high deficits.
Yet Democrats are more anxious about stemming the loss of jobs and creating new ones.
With economists forecasting that unemployment could hit 10 percent before job growth returns, perhaps in mid-2010, Democrats face month after month of bad news on the jobs front in a midterm election year, when a president’s party typically loses Congressional seats. Charlie Cook, a longtime nonpartisan election analyst, said last week that he was raising the odds of Democrats losing their House majority to about 50-50.
Even a modest stimulus package that mostly maintains current programs would ignite a debate about the effectiveness of the original $787 billion plan, stoking Republicans’ arguments that the package of spending and tax cuts was a waste of taxpayers’ money. While most economists agree with Democrats that job losses would have been worse without the stimulus, Mr. Obama remains on the defensive for his initial promise that it would save or create 3.5 million jobs.
Despite the bad jobs figures, Democrats in Congress generally agree with the White House that a second full-blown stimulus package is not needed, barring an economic relapse.
The $787 billion Recovery plan was intended to stretch over two years, partly in anticipation that the downturn would be prolonged. About 60 percent of the total is yet to be released, and much of that will go toward projects like road-building, other construction and research that save or create jobs.
Mark Zandi, an economist who occasionally advises Congressional Democratic leaders, and before that advised Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, in his two presidential campaigns, has projected an additional 750,000 job losses through next March, which would bring total losses to almost 9 million since December 2007. Mr. Zandi predicted that the unemployment rate would peak at 10.5 percent next June.
It is “very important,” he said, for the government to “continue to provide significant support to the economy through next year.” At the least, he said, that should include extending the homebuyer’s credit, various business tax breaks and mortgage relief programs.
But the demands on the federal government are likely to expand beyond that in the coming year.
Continued job losses only add to the plight of the states, which already are reeling from reduced tax revenues and increased demand for social services. Most states were able to balance their budgets this year, as they are required to do, only with billions of dollars in infusions from Washington. And the fiscal outlook for the states is now worse than a year ago, according to agencies that monitor them.
As the White House and Congress proceed with discussions of what to do next, Congress is working to stretch unemployment compensation for people who have been out of work for up to 79 weeks, or a year and a half. The House passed a bill for 13 additional weeks of aid for jobless workers in the 27 states with unemployment rates of 8.5 percent or higher, but some senators want an extra 12 weeks of benefits available in all states.
With the safety net programs due to expire after Dec. 31, the White House and Congress have contemplated for some time that they would probably have to renew them.
Besides the extended unemployment and food stamp benefits, they would keep alive a subsidy for people who lose their jobs and opt for the Cobra program, which lets them buy continued health care coverage under their former employers’ insurance plans. The subsidy covers up to 65 percent of the insurance premiums for most workers.
As Democrats have found, aiding those who have lost their jobs is simpler than preventing more layoffs and creating new jobs.
“There may not be anything we can do,” said a Democratic Congressional leadership aide who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter. “Under any circumstances, it’s going to take a while for jobs to recover.”
View Larger Map
Sources: NY Times, MSNBC, Huffington Post, Washington Post, Nurse Zone, Kimre, Google Maps
.jpg)
No comments:
Post a Comment