MSNBC----
Mass. AG announces bid for Kennedy seat
(A Special Election has been set for January in Massachusetts to fill Ted Kennedy’s U.S. Senate seat as speculation grows over whether his widow, Vicki, will run or be appointed to the position. NBC’s Chuck Todd reports.)
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BOSTON - The race for the Senate seat left vacant by the death last week of Edward Kennedy has gotten off to a cautious start, despite a tight five-month election schedule that leaves little time for campaigning.
So far, only one major candidate — state Attorney General Martha Coakley — has officially announced intentions to run for the seat.
Other possible contenders decided to hold back in part to see whether a member of the Kennedy family might decide to enter the race — including Kennedy's widow Vicki Kennedy or his nephew, the former U.S. Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy II.
Another possible contender — former U.S. Rep. Martin Meehan — said he is "thinking about" a run for the seat and hopes to make a decision by the end of the week.
Meehan, now chancellor of the University of Massachusetts at Lowell, is waiting to see whether a Kennedy jumps in. Meehan has $4.8 million in his federal campaign account, the largest sum of any potential candidate.
"There's a lot of speculation about whether Joe Kennedy or Vicki Kennedy would run and I think either of them would make a great senator," he said. "Certainly if one of the two Kennedy candidates decided to run, I would support them."
Gut Check
Other possible candidates include several members of Massachusetts all-Democratic congressional delegation — Reps. Stephen Lynch, Michael Capuano and Edward Markey. All three have sizable federal campaign war chests, including $1.3 million for Lynch, $1.2 million for Capuano and $2.8 million for Markey as of June 30.
Capuano said he hopes to make a decision in the next week or so, and in the meantime he's reaching out to political allies and completing more mundane tasks like upgrading computers.
"I'm doing my own gut check now," Capuano said. "This is not something I take lightly. I want to make sure there's a legitimate path to victory for me."
Capuano, who has Joe Kennedy's old House seat, suggested he would be unlikely to run if Kennedy seeks the seat.
"If Joe's in it, it's awfully hard to run against someone you respect so much," Capuano said.
Another Democrat weighing a run is Gloucester attorney Edward O'Reilly, who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. John Kerry in last year's Democratic primary.
"I am very seriously considering it. I ran for the same office less than a year ago and received 31 percent of the vote," O'Reilly said.
GOP contenders remain tight-lipped
On the Republican side, potential candidates were even more tightlipped.
Former Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, former U.S. Attorney Michael Sullivan and state Sen. Scott Brown, R-Wrentham, have all been mentioned as possible candidates, but none responded to requests for comment.
Other political figures decided to take their names out of the running.
Lt. Gov. Timothy Murray issued a statement saying that despite receiving "words of encouragement from many supporters suggesting that I consider running for the United States Senate seat," he will keep his day job.
"I look forward to running and winning re-election with Governor Patrick in 2010," Murray said.
Gov. Deval Patrick, in response to a reporter's question on Monday, also snuffed out a suggestion that he might have his eye on the Senate seat, saying he remains focused on his job as governor.
Quick decision
Potential candidates will have to decide fairly quickly if they're in or out given the quick pace of the special election.
The first major deadline, Oct. 20, is less than two months away. That's when candidates vying for their party's nomination must deliver the signatures of at least 10,000 voters to local officials for certification to secure a spot on the Dec. 8 primary ballot.
The final election is just six weeks later on Jan. 19.
Voters are facing their own deadlines. The last day to register for the primary is Nov. 12, and for the general election the registration deadline is Dec. 30.
While possible candidates have their eye on the special election, Massachusetts lawmakers were gearing up for a public hearing scheduled for Sept. 9 on a contentious bill that would change state law to let the governor make an interim appointment to the seat until the election.
Gov. Patrick supports the change, but House Speaker Robert DeLeo, D-Winthrop, and Senate President Therese Murray, D-Plymouth, haven't said whether they back it.
Democrats are facing charges of hypocrisy from critics who point out that just five years ago, they changed the law to block then-Gov. Mitt Romney from naming a fellow Republican to fill the seat if Kerry, the Democrats' presidential nominee, won his White House campaign.
Before that change, the governor was allowed to appoint a nominee until the next general election. As part of the 2004 change, Democratic lawmakers also blocked the possibility of Romney naming an interim senator.
Patrick said it's unfair to let Massachusetts to go five months without two voices in the Senate. He said he'd ask for a guarantee from whoever he named as interim senator not to run in the special election.
National Democratic leaders including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., also support the interim appointment. They say they need as many votes as they can during the debate on President Barack Obama's health care overhaul.
Kennedy died last week of brain cancer at age 77.
Price of Kennedy's seat: $3 million-plus
Most of the prospective contenders for the late Sen. Ted Kennedy’s seat have demurred when asked about their interest, but several are well-stocked for a January special election that figures to spawn an intense, expensive and compressed battle for the Democratic nomination.
As many as seven current or former Massachusetts Democratic congressmen have been mentioned as potential Senate candidates, and between them, they’ve stockpiled nearly $16 million that could be used to fund campaigns for their party’s Dec. 8 special Senate primary, which will likely determine the next senator from deep-blue Massachusetts.
To be sure, some of the seven have downplayed the possibility that they’d seek the seat and others would face long odds of winning the nomination if they threw their hats into the ring. But national fundraisers, Massachusetts political strategists and sources close to the prospective candidates all agree that having a financial head start will be a huge advantage in a race where the ability to quickly raise and spend vast amounts of cash could be determinative.
“The money will be a huge factor,” said a Massachusetts Democratic operative, who asserted that to be a viable special election candidate, Democrats will need to raise between $3 and $4 million before December. Others predict the putative entry fee could be north of $5 million — or more for candidates with lower statewide name identification.
Former Rep. Marty Meehan, who left Congress in 2007 to become chancellor of the University of Massachusetts-Lowell, could drop that much on a campaign right now. At the end of June, Meehan had $4.9 million in his campaign account — by far the biggest account of the seven — and on Tuesday, he wouldn’t rule out a run.
Behind Meehan were Democratic Reps. Ed Markey, who reported $2.9 million in the bank at the end of June, Richard Neal ($2.5 million), Stephen Lynch ($1.4 million), John Tierney ($1.3 million), and Michael Capuano ($1.2 million), according to Federal Election Commission filings.
Kennedy’s nephew, former Rep. Joe Kennedy, whose decision on whether to enter the race is expected to go a long way towards shaping the field, has $1.8 million in his campaign account, though he last ran for Congress in 1996. Both his committee and Meehan’s have continued accruing interest and dividends from investments, which yielded a combined $550,000 this year alone.
Since Ted Kennedy was diagnosed with a malignant brain tumor in May 2008, Markey, Neal, Lynch, Tierney and Capuano have raised a combined $2.4 million and have been active on the fundraising circuit, though none is expected to face competitive reelection bids.
Some of their campaign cash can be attributed to the benefits of some being in powerful congressional posts in the majority (which might be expected to diminish the lure of starting anew in the Senate) as well as being in safe seats — their reelection campaigns are not nearly as costly as members of Congress in competitive seats. And part of the allure of the special election is that no one would have to risk giving up their current seat to run.
Lynch and Capuano — neither of whom is particularly well-known beyond their Boston-area districts —would need to raise north of $5 million to fund the type of television advertising campaign necessary to boost their name identification, asserted Jeffrey Berry, a political science professor at Tufts University.
By that rationale, Berry said, state Attorney General Martha Coakley — who has already obtained the papers necessary to enter the race — wouldn’t need to raise as much.
“Her name identification statewide is very high, and her favorables are very high,” said Berry, though he stressed that her lack of a cash-flush federal campaign committee puts her at something of a disadvantage starting out.
Earlier this year, she acknowledged having a previously unknown federal testing-the-waters account which she used to pay for a portion of a poll that tested her viability as a Senate candidate. But most of her fundraising has gone to her state campaign account, which paid for the bulk of the poll and which in mid-August reported $692,000 — none of which can be used for the Senate race.
Nonetheless, Berry said Coakley has been “preparing for this by contacting her donors without explicitly saying she’s running, keeping her name in front of their eyes, and communicating with her body language that she’ll be back. She’s plowed the ground. She’s planted the seeds, and now she’s ready to harvest.”
Coakley is expected to lean heavily on well-developed state and national fundraising networks of women activists, including EMILY’s List, the powerful bundling network that backs female Democratic candidates who support abortion rights.
The group has been informally advising Coakley for months on things like building a political organization, said a source close to EMILY’s List.
“They’re doing a good job preparing for this thing,” said the source. “They’ve got a real political operation and she’s got a pretty good personal circle, so I think she’ll be able to raise some money fairly quickly.”
Though Joe Kennedy hasn’t been on the political fundraising circuit for years, he’s also expected to be able to quickly raise big money.
If he throws his hat in the ring with Coakley, Berry said “it’s going to be an arms race with all the heavy weaponry, and she won’t regard any amount as enough. It’ll be a battle of the titans and the other candidates will fall by the wayside.”
The ultimate campaign wildcard, however, would be Ted Kennedy’s widow Vicki Kennedy, who has repeatedly told friends and allies she is not interested, but continues to be the subject of Senate seat speculation.
“Vicki Kennedy has the capacity to raise enormous sums of money,” said Berry, asserting her husband’s allies would side with her if she ran. “The real question is whether she had the fortitude to be able to do that while she’s mourning.”
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Sources: MSNBC, Politico, Google Maps
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