DC & MARYLAND'S YOUNG BLACK MEN REMAIN UNEMPLOYED & ARRESTED (EARLY VOTING 2018)

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DC & MARYLAND'S YOUNG BLACK MEN REMAIN UNEMPLOYED & ARRESTED (EARLY VOTING 2018):

IT APPEAR AS IF DC & MARYLAND'S BLACK POLITICIANS HAVE FORGOTTEN YOUNG UNEMPLOYED BLACK MEN.

JOB NUMBERS AMONG BLACK MEN IN DC & MARYLAND STILL LAG.

WHERE ARE THE JOBS IN DC & MARYLAND FOR YOUNG BLACK MEN?

YOUNG BLACK MEN IN DC & MARYLAND BELONG ON JOBS NOT IN JAIL.

BUT HOW DO YOU EXPECT YOUNG BLACK MEN TO STAY OUT OF JAIL WITHOUT JOBS WHICH THEY NEED TO SURVIVE??


Post Sources: EPI, Baltimore Sun, WTOP, Youtube


****** In 14 states and DC, the African American unemployment rate is at least twice the white unemployment rate.


The highest African American unemployment rate is in the District of Columbia at 12.9 percent, while the highest white unemployment rate is in West Virginia at 5.2 percent.

In the first quarter of 2018, African American workers had the highest unemployment rate nationally, at 7.2 percent, followed by Hispanic (5.1 percent), white (3.3 percent), and Asian workers (3.0 percent).1

This report provides a state-by-state breakdown of unemployment rates by race and ethnicity and racial/ethnic unemployment rate gaps for the first quarter of 2018. It shows that while there have been state-by-state improvements in prospects for black and Hispanic workers, their unemployment rates remain high relative to those of white workers. Following are some key highlights of the report:

While the African American unemployment rate is at or below its pre-recession level in 17 states (of the 22 states and the District of Columbia for which these data are available), in 14 states and the District of Columbia, African American unemployment rates exceed white unemployment rates by a ratio of 2-to-1 or higher.

The District of Columbia has the highest black–white unemployment rate ratio overall, at 8.5-to-1, while South Carolina and Maryland have the highest ratios among states (3.2-to-1 and 2.8-to-1, respectively).

The highest African American unemployment rate is in the District of Columbia (12.9 percent), followed by Illinois (9.1 percent) and New Jersey (9.0 percent). The highest Hispanic state unemployment rate is in Connecticut (10.0 percent). In contrast, the highest white state unemployment rate is 5.2 percent, in West Virginia.

While the Hispanic unemployment rate is at or below its pre-recession level in 13 states (of the 16 states for which these data are available), there is no state where the Hispanic unemployment rate is lower than the white rate.

In five states and the District of Columbia, Hispanic unemployment rates exceed white unemployment rates by a ratio of 2-to-1 or higher (Connecticut, 3.4-to-1; Massachusetts, 2.1-to-1; Washington, 2.1-to-1; Colorado, 2.0-to-1; District of Columbia, 2.0-to-1, and Idaho, 2.0-to-1).

Background

In March 2018, the national unemployment rate was 4.1 percent, unchanged from at the end of the fourth quarter of 2017.2 State unemployment rates in March ranged from a low of 2.1 percent in Hawaii to 7.3 percent in Alaska.3 According to a previous EPI analysis of unemployment by state, from December to March 2018, 25 states and the District of Columbia saw their unemployment rates decline, 7 states saw unemployment rates rise, and 18 states saw no change.

State unemployment rates, by race and ethnicity

EPI analyzes state unemployment rates by race and ethnicity, and by racial/ethnic unemployment rate gaps, on a quarterly basis to generate a sample size large enough to create reliable estimates of unemployment rates by race and ethnicity at the state level. We only report estimates for states for which the sample size of these subgroups is large enough to create an accurate estimate. For this reason, the number of states included in our map and data tables varies based on the analysis performed (unemployment rate, change in unemployment rate since the fourth quarter of 2007, and ratio of African American or Hispanic unemployment rate to white unemployment rate).

Trends among white workers

In the first quarter of 2018, the white unemployment rate was lowest in the District of Columbia (1.5 percent) and highest in West Virginia (5.2 percent), as shown in the interactive map and underlying data, which present state unemployment rates by race and ethnicity. Among states, North Dakota had the lowest unemployment rate for white workers (1.9 percent).

Trends among African American workers

African American unemployment rate estimates are available for 23 states and the District of Columbia.

During the first quarter of 2018, among states, the African American unemployment rate was lowest in Indiana (4.8 percent) and highest in Illinois (9.1 percent); in the District of Columbia, it was 12.9 percent. The District of Columbia also had the highest black unemployment rate during the previous six quarters.

In the first quarter of 2018, of the 23 states with African American unemployment rate estimates, all had black unemployment rates below 10 percent; in 14 of these states, the rate was at or below the first quarter national average for African American workers (7.2 percent).

The black unemployment rate in the first quarter of 2018 was at or below its pre-recession level in 17 states: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas.

(Data on the change in black unemployment over this period are available for 22 states and the District of Columbia).

However, all states except for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas have black labor force participation rates that were lower in the first quarter of 2018 than at the end of 2007, indicating that the return to pre-recession levels of unemployment in these states was not a full recovery for African American workers because not all discouraged job seekers have returned to the market.5

Trends among Hispanic workers

Hispanic unemployment rate estimates are available for 23 states and the District of Columbia, and data on changes in Hispanic unemployment rates since the fourth quarter of 2007 are available for 16 states. In the first quarter of 2018, among states, the Hispanic unemployment rate was highest in Connecticut (10.0 percent) and lowest in Arkansas and Virginia (both at 3.3 percent).

The Hispanic unemployment rate was 3.1 percent in the District of Columbia. Connecticut and Washington were the only states with Hispanic unemployment rates above 8.0 percent in the first quarter.

The Hispanic unemployment rate is at or below its pre-recession level in 13 states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Texas, Utah, and Virginia. The Hispanic unemployment rate was most elevated above its pre-recession level in Washington (by 2.3 percentage points).

In no state was the Hispanic unemployment rate lower than the white unemployment rate. In Arkansas, the Hispanic unemployment rate and white unemployment rate were exactly the same (3.3 percent). The ratio of Hispanic unemployment to white unemployment was highest in Connecticut (3.4-to-1), Massachusetts (2.1-to-1), and Washington (2.1-to-1).

Trends among Asian workers

Asian unemployment rate estimates are available for 10 states, and data on the change in Asian unemployment rates since the fourth quarter of 2007 are available for seven states. For the third consecutive quarter, the Asian unemployment rate was lowest in Hawaii (1.6 percent). The highest Asian unemployment rate was in Massachusetts (6.2 percent).

The Asian unemployment rate was at or below its pre-recession level in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New York, Texas, and Washington. In only one state—New Jersey—was the Asian unemployment rate was more than 2 percentage points above its pre-recession level (at 2.6 percentage points higher).
Methodology

The unemployment rate estimates in this report are based on the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The overall state unemployment rate is taken directly from the LAUS. CPS six-month ratios are applied to LAUS data to calculate the rates by race and ethnicity.

For each state subgroup, we calculate the unemployment rate using the past six months of CPS data. We then find the ratio of this subgroup rate to the state unemployment rate using the same period of CPS data. This gives us an estimate of how the subgroup compares with the state overall.

While this methodology allows us to calculate unemployment-rate estimates at the state level by race and ethnicity by quarter, it is less precise at the national level than simply using the CPS. Thus, the national-level estimates may differ from direct CPS estimates.

In many states, the sample sizes of particular subgroups are not large enough to create accurate estimates of their unemployment rates. We report data only for groups that had, on average, a sample size of at least 700 in the labor force for each six-month period.

BLACK NC VOTE DOWN 9% - GOP VOTE UP 31% (BAD FOR DEMS)

BLACK NC VOTE DOWN 9% - GOP VOTE UP 31%:

BAD FOR DEMOCRATS.

OBAMA'S BLACK VOTER COALITION IS ANGRY

Sources: Newsobserver, YouTube


****** African-American early vote down in NC, a rarity in the Southeast


African-American turnout for early voting in Tuesday’s election dropped 9 percent compared to four years ago, making North Carolina unusual among Southeastern states.

The state Republican Party highlighted the decline in black voters Monday, while trumpeting the increase in Republicans who cast early ballots.

Political scientists, politicians, and public interest groups were left to wonder about the reasons behind the drop in black early-voter turnout in a year when overall participation in early voting hit an all-time high. Going into Election Day, more than 3.1 million people have already voted. Nearly 32 percent of the early vote was Republican this year, up slightly from 31.5 percent four years ago.

The state GOP in a press release pointed to the decline in African-American early voting, saying it was part of the crumbling of President Barack Obama’s voter coalition.

Republicans made a “massive effort” to get GOP voters to cast early ballots, state GOP executive director Dallas Woodhouse said. The Republican National Committee sent out mailers with early voting sites and hours. Phone bank callers and volunteers knocking on doors emphasized early voting, he said.

Woodhouse in August urged Republicans on local boards of election to limit early voting hours and locations.

That never happened, Woodhouse said. Counties that had limited early voting sites in the first week expanded in the second week to more than make up for it.

The State Board of Elections said early voting hours increased 16 percent from 2012, and there were more than 21 percent more locations.

“There were more hours and sites than ever before,” Woodhouse said. “The Democrats might have to accept that there’s a lot of their own people who don’t like their candidate.”

An internal memorandum from Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign noted that African-American turnout spiked in the last two days of early voting, and that Latino turnout had nearly doubled from four years ago.

“Early voting turnout in North Carolina was unprecedented because the people of this state understand the high stakes of this election,” North Carolina campaign spokesman Andrew Bates said in a statement that also called Republican rival Donald Trump “temperamentally unfit to be commander in chief.”

North Carolina stands out among some other southeastern states where African-American turnout was up — Georgia, Louisiana, and Florida — said Michael McDonald, an associate professor of political science at the University of Florida.

Changes in early voting in the state, such as moved or reduced voting locations, and purges of voter rolls may be a factor, he said. It’s possible that fewer African-Americans are engaged, but with turnout higher in the other states, that cannot be the entire explanation, McDonald said.

“There are other things going on here other than enthusiasm,” he said.

“It turns my stomach to see those kinds of declines in a particular group of people who have had difficulty voting in the past.”

Chris Kromm, executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies, a left-leaning public interest research center headquartered in Durham, said a combination of factors may have contributed to the decrease.

Early voting locations were limited in the first week in some large counties, including Mecklenburg and Guilford. Kromm counted 17 counties with significant early voting changes.

“Having fewer options — counties where hours and sites were reduced or reshuffled. That’s where we saw the lower numbers,” he said.

Concerned get-out-the-vote efforts by the Democratic Party and independent groups contributed to the late surge in early voting and helped close the gap in Mecklenburg, parts of the Triangle and other areas, Kromm said.

Other counties did not get as much attention, and “that’s where the gap continued to be pretty sizable.”

In some counties, Hurricane Matthew was a likely factor.

Kromm mentioned Robeson County, where communities were devastated by flooding and where early voting hours were reduced. African-American early voting dropped 25 percent in Robeson.

“These individual pieces add up,” he said.

A News & Observer analysis found African-American turnout declined in other counties hit hard by the hurricane and flooding. Turnout for black voters was down nearly 15 percent in Edgecombe County, and more than 20 percent in Nash, Northampton and Halifax counties.

State Sen. Joel Ford, a Charlotte Democrat, put some of the blame on the state the Democratic Party and candidates who are not talking about issues of interest to African-American voters, such as affordable housing, community policing and unemployment.

“If the folks who are running statewide have not hit the panic button, they should between now and Tuesday,” he said. “We need to make sure those folks get out.”

Dave Miranda, spokesman for the state Democratic Party, said no one is panicking.

“I think our candidates have been talking about issues that apply to African-Americans and all voters,” Miranda said.

DONALD TRUMP OR HILLARY CLINTON: EARLY VOTING IS CRUCIAL

DONALD TRUMP OR HILLARY CLINTON: EARLY VOTING IS CRUCIAL

Sources:  NY Times, Youtube

Early Voting is a political tool our current Pres Barack Obama, used to his advantage during the 2008 and 2012 general elections.

For registered voters the early voting process helps to eliminate the stress of casting ballots at the last minute.

As we face another crucial election with two very qualified candidates in the running (Trump & Hillary), which candidate will most benefit from the early voting process?

**** Early Voting Limits Donald Trump’s Time to Turn Campaign Around

Advisers to Donald J. Trump keep reassuring Republicans that there is still plenty of time to rescue his candidacy — nearly three months to counter Hillary Clinton’s vast operation in swing states and get Mr. Trump on message.

The Trump team had better check the calendar.

Voting actually starts in less than six weeks, on Sept. 23 in Minnesota and South Dakota, the first of some 35 states and the District of Columbia that allow people to cast ballots at polling sites or by mail before Nov. 8. Iowa is expected to have ballots ready by the end of September, as are Illinois and two other states.

The electoral battlegrounds of Arizona and Ohio are to begin voting on Oct. 12, nearly four weeks before Election Day. And North Carolina and Florida will be underway before Halloween.

Early voting has become a critical, even decisive factor in presidential elections: President Obama was sufficiently ahead in the early vote in Iowa and Nevada in 2012 that his campaign shifted resources from those states to others, according to former advisers, who also credited enthusiastic early voting in 2008 for his victory in North Carolina and elsewhere.

Nearly 32 percent of voters cast their ballots before Election Day in 2012, according to census data, compared with 29.7 percent in 2008 and 20 percent in 2004.

With Mrs. Clinton spending aggressively to try to dominate the early vote, Mr. Trump, who has repeatedly created distractions for himself in the past two weeks, is in jeopardy not just of being outmaneuvered but also of running out of chances to improve perceptions of him enough to win over undecided voters.

“When you have something as catastrophic as the Trump campaign is becoming, there aren’t enough weeks left to turn things around, and little ability to organize effectively and capture a strong share of the early vote,” said Mike Murphy, a veteran Republican strategist who worked on behalf of Jeb Bush during the primaries.

If Mrs. Clinton swamps Mr. Trump in the early vote in some swing states, she can move staff and money to the most competitive places — like Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, judging from recent polls — while he scrambles to battle on multiple fronts.

“As many as 40 percent of voters cast ballots in the early states, and you can’t organize overnight, or even in just a few weeks, and win them,” said Neil Newhouse, who was Mitt Romney’s pollster in 2012. “Truthfully, if the Clinton campaign inherited what the Obama campaign put together, they’ve got to have a head start in this over the Trump campaign.”

Indeed, Mrs. Clinton’s team, which includes a number of former top Obama campaign lieutenants, has been working with county officials to ensure that voters in swing states have places to cast their ballots early, organizing voters at the neighborhood level, and contacting those who may not know that they must request absentee ballots in jurisdictions that do not automatically send them.

Some Clinton allies are also organizing “souls to the polls” buses that take church members to vote immediately after Sunday church services in Democratic strongholds like Cleveland.

Early voters tend to be older and more partisan, and many choose to cast absentee ballots by mail, while others prefer to go to polling sites during special evening and weekend hours. In Arizona, many vote early rather than stand in long lines in the heat on Election Day.

Early voting rules and times vary widely by state, and some Republican-led legislatures have sought to put new limits on options like Sunday and evening voting — attempts that have been struck down in several court rulings. The Clinton campaign has “voter protection teams” of lawyers pushing for as much early voting as possible.

“In every state, our goal is to use all available tools so more voters have their voices heard in this election — whether that’s by mail, early vote, absentee, or on Election Day,” said Marlon Marshall, the Clinton campaign’s director of state campaigns and engagement. “We’ve been working for months to reach out to voters to make casting their ballot as easy and accessible as possible.”

Mr. Trump is lagging far behind. Unlike Mrs. Clinton, he has not been running television ads, which are crucial for engaging early voters, and he has state organizers of varying experience levels and scattershot ground troops in most places. His campaign is leaning on the Republican National Committee to open state offices to help with early voting. Both Mr. Romney and the 2008 Republican nominee, Senator John McCain, had more aggressive operations at this point.

Paul Manafort, Mr. Trump’s campaign chairman, said he did not think early voting would put Mr. Trump at a disadvantage, expressing confidence that the campaign’s ground operation would be well organized and executed and that Mr. Trump would ultimately attract enough undecided voters to win.

Mr. Manafort said the presidential debates would be critical for Mr. Trump; in the past, strong debate performances have led to a surge in early voting for the perceived winner, a boost that Mr. Romney enjoyed after he was widely seen as beating Mr. Obama in their first debate.

“We are organizing for this,” Mr. Manafort said about early voting. “We have very experienced people involved.” He declined to provide details.

He spoke before the news broke early Wednesday that Mr. Trump was shaking up his campaign by adding two top staff members and effectively demoting Mr. Manafort, although he will keep his title.

After Mr. Romney’s performance in that first 2012 debate, Republicans turned out in droves to vote or cast absentee ballots; Mr. Obama recovered in the next debate, and his ground forces mobilized so strongly in some places that he was able to cut back on campaigning in some key states. He visited Des Moines on the eve of the election “for nostalgia, not need,” said David Plouffe, a longtime Obama adviser.

“If you have an accurate model of how you are performing in early vote, you have an exact picture of where the race stands,” Mr. Plouffe said. In 2012, he added, the early vote trends in Iowa and Nevada meant “we could spend more time and money in Florida, most importantly.” Mr. Obama ended up winning Iowa and Nevada by about six percentage points and carried Florida with a one-point margin, he said.

But Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney also had campaign organizations capable of capitalizing on strong debate performances. “I don’t know if Trump has a great debate or gets a spike in support after it,” said Mr. Murphy, the Republican strategist, “but he certainly doesn’t have the machinery to take advantage of it by getting those people to the polls.”

Mr. Trump has pointed to the usually large numbers of people at his rallies, and their evident enthusiasm, as signs of strong support that will translate into energetic early voters. But during the Republican primaries, some Trump admirers at his rallies admitted they were not registered and had no plans to vote, and Trump advisers say that their voter registration efforts have been relatively modest.

Mrs. Clinton, by contrast, urges people at her rallies to register to vote, pointing them to clipboard-carrying volunteers who have forms to dispense and details about when, where and how to cast ballots.

“Hillary’s getting into early voting details while Trump can’t get past making awful sound bites,” said Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist and media consultant. “The idea that he can fix things and win over swing voters in the final week or two — that’s not how elections are won anymore. It’s wishful thinking.”

Correction: August 16, 2016

An earlier version of this article misstated the means by which voters can participate in early voting in some states. Voters can cast ballots at polling sites or by mail, not by email.