Dems Are Finished! Obama's In Denial; GOP Smells Blood!

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Five Ways For Dems To Lose The U.S. Senate Majority


Sen. Evan Bayh's stunning decision Monday to pass on a reelection campaign in Indiana is the latest blow to a Senate Democratic majority that is suddenly within striking distance for the GOP.

While the retirements of Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) and Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) had a clear political logic to them — both involved vulnerable Incumbents badly trailing their prospective opponents, according to publicly released polling — Bayh’s calculus was less obvious since he had a comfortable double-digit cushion and a nearly $13 million head start.

Either way, the two-term senator’s departure now places 10 Democratic-held Senate seats at risk. If all are swept under by a November GOP wave, Republicans are back in control of the Senate.

The lesson of the tumultuous past 45 days is that the contours of the political landscape can change in an instant — and a death, a retirement or a top candidate’s decision not to run can wreak havoc on the best laid political plans.

With that in mind, here’s a list of five developments that would make the Democratic hold on the Senate even more tenuous:

The situation in Arkansas continues to deteriorate

By most measures, Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln is checking all the boxes as she gears up to run for a third term. She’s made staffing additions to the campaign squad, boasts a healthy $5 million war chest, and a spokeswoman reports the senator is planning a headquarters grand opening on the same day she files for reelection in two weeks.

While Lincoln’s office dismisses speculation that she will be the next incumbent to drop, Bayh’s unexpected bombshell is a reminder that the act of gearing up for a campaign doesn’t necessarily guarantee an incumbent will run again.

Unlike in Bayh’s case, however, it’s not entirely clear whether Lincoln’s retirement would help or hinder the cause. Her standing in the polls seems near terminal: a recent Public Policy Polling survey had her trailing Republican Rep. John Boozman by a jaw-dropping 23 points. Other automated polls have shown her trailing lesser-known GOP foes.

In Connecticut, Democrats vastly improved their chances in November when Dodd decided not to seek reelection and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal stepped into his shoes. Blumenthal now holds commanding leads over the same Republicans who were shown to be trouncing Dodd.

There is a potential Arkansas Democratic candidate with statewide elected experience who could fit the bill: Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. But Halter is no Blumenthal — the outside-the-state progressive forces that are already clamoring for Halter to challenge Lincoln in a primary may not be an asset to him in a general election in conservative-minded Arkansas.


Romanoff roughs up Bennet in Colorado

Appointed Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet's allies argue that his Democratic primary opponent, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, doesn't have the financial wherewithal to become a serious threat in the primary.

But Romanoff's keen political antennae, coupled with Bennet's inexperience on the campaign trail, could produce a messy August primary that leaves little time for the party to reunite behind the victor.

Romanoff has cannily framed himself as "an outsider," while at the same time racking up endorsements from dozens of state lawmakers and labor groups. And Bennet's soft polling numbers are also allowing Romanoff to claim the electability card.

"Despite being outspent 10-to-1, I do as well against any of the Republicans," Romanoff told POLITICO last week, citing an early February Rasmussen Reports poll that put him just 7 points behind Republican front-runner Jane Norton.

While Bennet, who carries President Barack Obama’s backing, would have to be labeled the primary front-runner, Democrats can already envision a nightmarish set of circumstances where Bennet gets bloodied by Romanoff and staggers into the fall homestretch against the GOP nominee.

Colorado’s precinct caucuses, which begin next month, are already fertile ground for Romanoff, a favorite of progressives who tend to turn out for such an activist-oriented event. A worst-case scenario for the Democratic establishment: Romanoff edges out Bennet at the Colorado Democratic State Assembly in May.

But whether Romanoff accomplishes that, or easily surpasses the 30 percent necessary to qualify for the August ballot, it could be just the momentum his campaign needs to fight Bennet through the summer.


A Gillibrand challenge jells in New York

Democrat Harold Ford Jr. is the latest in a parade of prospective candidates to float their interest in challenging appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York.

If he ends up passing on a run for the U.S. Senate in New York, it will go down as just another Big Apple political sideshow — and a welcome break for Democrats who desperately want to put an end to worries that the vulnerable rookie senator could get waylaid by a family feud.

But recent comments from Gillibrand and the former Tennessee congressman suggest the diversion might continue on for some time, though Ford has said he'll let his intentions be known in the coming weeks.

If it's a go, buckle up— New York’s primary doesn't take place until Sept. 14th, which leaves months of potential bloodletting before a nominee is chosen. The New York GOP is probably too weak to capitalize in any event, but that could change if a Republican with immediate stature saw an opportunity — someone like former Gov. George Pataki.


Third time's a charm for Rossi in Washington

Sen. Patty Murray’s (D-Wash.) high-water mark in three races is 58 percent — hardly the stuff of an untouchable incumbent.

If the GOP can reel in a big fish who can connect with suburbanites and dominate in eastern Washington — not a heavy lift since Murray lost every county east of the Cascades in 2004 — this seemingly sleepy seat could be in play.

The polling data demonstrates that Republican Dino Rossi could be that candidate. Sure, he's a two-time loser to Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire — in 2004 by a mere 129 votes and in 2008 by 6 points — but a recent Rasmussen Reports survey had Rossi leading the three-term Democratic senator 48 percent to 46 percent, including an 8-point advantage with independents.

It marked the first time a public poll showed Murray behind this cycle. And while saying he has "no plans to run for any office," Rossi wasn’t exactly Shermanesque in a recent interview with POLITICO.

"Never say never," he added.

Rep. Dave Reichert, who has held a Democratic-leaning suburban Seattle seat during a dismal period for the GOP, also might make an attractive opponent to Murray, though he isn’t likely to run, close associates say.

The Republicans already in the field, including state Sen. Don Benton and former NFL tight end Clint Didier, at the moment don't appear to have the standing or fundraising ability necessary to seriously challenge Murray.

So it might all come down to Rossi. "He's got a good narrative; he's got good statewide ID. The environment on the ground is vastly improved. I know he's receiving the full-court press to run," said Republican strategist Rick Wilson.

Meanwhile, Murray's sending up the warning flares — she recently wrote supporters in a fundraising e-mail that after the Massachusetts Senate special election in January, Republicans "are emboldened like perhaps never before and their thirst for victory is unquenchable."

Another GOP advantage: The relatively late filing deadline of June 11 means prospective candidates have ample time to make up their minds.


Specter’s campaign trail vigor in Pennsylvania

Pols don’t get any tougher, or more resilient, than Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter, the five-term Democratic incumbent who switched parties last year.

In recent years he’s dealt with a brain tumor and Hodgkin’s disease and even wrote a book — titled “Never Give In” — about his experience battling cancer while serving in the Senate.

But as he confronts a stiff primary challenge, followed by an equally tough general election contest, the delicate issue of his age and health remains a widespread, though rarely publicly aired, topic of discussion among Pennsylvania political insiders. A single, well-publicized gaffe or stumble could suddenly insert the issue into the public conversation in a race where Specter has little room for error.

Specter, who turned 80 years old last week, doesn’t have to look far to find examples of campaigns where a senator’s advanced age played a key role in determining the outcome.

Specter is now older than former GOP Sen. William Roth of Delaware, the popular late incumbent who lost reelection in 2000 at the age of 79 after several campaign trail incidents reminded voters of his age — and underscored the relative youth and vigor of his Democratic opponent, Tom Carper.

Across the border in New Jersey, there’s another example: Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg (himself now 86) also first won his seat in 1982 by questioning the “fitness” of septuagenarian Sen. Millicent Fenwick.












Michael Steele To Meet With Tea Party Leaders At RNC Headquarters



Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele plans to sit down with about 50 Tea Party leaders Tuesday in the first such meeting of two wings of the conservative movement that could be either vital partners or bitter rivals.

The meeting is part of a broader effort by national Republicans to reach out to Tea Party activists rather than risk their hand-picked candidates being run over by the movement.

"The chairman believes it extremely important to listen to this significant grassroots movement and work to find common ground in order to elect officials that will protect these principles," RNC spokeswoman Katie Wright said.

But one Tea Party activist who traveled hundreds of miles to attend the meeting at RNC headquarters in Washington, D.C., said sparks could fly.

"Steele wants to try to co-opt us, but we're coming to tell him he doesn't get it. We want to return the Republican Party to its roots. We're expecting some fireworks," the activist said.

Tea Party supporters identify far more with the Republican platform than the Democratic Party's, but they have not been shy about voicing their discontent with elected Republicans and running against the party's favored candidates. They threw an upstate New York congressional race into disarray last fall when they backed a third-party candidate over Republican Dede Scozzafava, forcing her out of the race. Democrat Bill Owens won the special election.

Tea Party activists have since targeted multiple Republicans they don't feel are conservative enough, such as Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and Utah Sen. Bob Bennett.

There is no single Tea Party group or individual in charge of the activists, but the movement has been trying to become more organized and focused. Tea Party organizers from across the country attended a national convention two weeks ago in Nashville, where they discussed strategy for this year's midterm elections.

Some Republican figures, including former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, view the movement as a major force in the upcoming elections that Republicans in some districts will have to court if they want to win.



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