Evan Bayh Burns Democrats
Sen. Evan Bayh, a leading moderate Democrat from Indiana who was once thought to be a rising national political star, won’t run for a third term, a decision which imperils his party’s hold on the seat.
Bayh’s stunning decision – announced Monday afternoon in Indianapolis – came as he geared up for what may have been his most difficult campaign in an otherwise gilded political life.
The son of a senator, Bayh never lost a race over a career in which he was elected as secretary of state at the age of 30 and served as governor and senator for two terms each.
Until Monday morning, Bayh gave no hint that he was thinking about giving up his Senate seat. Just the opposite: he had nearly $13 million on hand, had taken on a new role as the de facto head of a Senate moderate rump group and Democratic operatives in Washington and Indiana had already launched a withering series of attacks against former Sen. Dan Coats, whose seat Bayh took when the Republican retired in 1998 and who had begun exploring taking on the incumbent earlier this month.
After briefly running for president in 2008 and being considered but passed over for vice-president in three consecutive elections, it seemed that Bayh, 54, had settled into his role as a senator and outspoken voice for his party to hew toward the political center.
He becomes the fifth Democratic senator to retire, a decision which puts his party, already facing a tough election year, in a difficult position.
It will be hard enough for Democrats to hold the Senate seat in conservative-leaning Indiana. Thanks to his golden name, moderate positioning and aggressive fundraising, Bayh has proven to be a political force. Now that he’s not on the ballot, Democrats will be forced to come up with a far lesser-known replacement.
Attention immediately turned to a pair of moderate House Democrats, Baron Hill and Brad Ellsworth, as potential prospects to fill the seat. But a Hill or Ellsworth Senate candidacy would in turn imperil Democratic prospects of keeping their conservative-leaning southern Indiana seats from slipping to the GOP.
Democratic sources in Washington and Indiana signaled Monday that Ellsworth, as the fresher face of the two, may be the establishment favorite.
In a statement, the second-term Democrat indicated he was open to the prospect of a statewide run.
"I appreciate the support of those Hoosiers who have already encouraged me to run for Senator Bayh's seat," Ellsworth said. "The next step will be taking a few days to talk to my wife and to folks in Indiana about where I can best serve our state."
Beyond the practical impact of keeping the Bayh seat and the House seat of whichever member might decide to run for the Senate, the retirement also offers a fresh reminder about Democrats’ declining fortunes this year.
That such a prominent and still relatively young figure as Bayh would retire, rather than battle to keep his seat, illustrates both the deepening fears among Democrats about the shape of the election cycle and the frustration among moderates that the party has veered too far left.
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Stunned Democratic officials said it was a last-minute, personal decision. Bayh was polling as recently as last week – and enjoying a sizable lead – and had already gathered the petitions necessary to be on the ballot this fall. He had even scheduled his first TV ad shoot for this Wednesday and his notarized filing document was sitting on the desk of Indiana Democratic Chairman Dan Parker, a longtime friend.
But on Saturday, Bayh called Parker with the stunning message: he was sick of the partisan rancor in Washington and calling it quits.
“That is something Evan regrets, but I think that the actions over the last few weeks in the Senate and the filing deadline was approaching forced his hand,” said a top Indiana Democrat.
Candidates in Indiana must declare their intentions with the state by Feburary 19th – Friday – but must have signed petitions in to county registrars by Tuesday.
In Washington, senior Democrats were all under the impression Bayh would seek a third term.
"He was giving every sign of running again," said a Democratic leadership aide.
Senate Democratic leaders, including Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) were not informed of Bayh's decision until Monday morning, according to several Democratic insiders. Bayh was even scheduled to appear on a CNN Sunday show, but canceled his appearance, said these sources.
Aside from Coats, the favored candidate of the national GOP, former Rep. John Hostettler and a handful of lesser-known candidates were already vying for the Republican nomination.
House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence, who had earlier considered challenging Bayh, said Monday he would not seek the Senate seat.
Coats, in a statement, said: “I will continue to run just as hard and take nothing for granted."
Among the complications of Bayh’s decision is a looming logistical nightmare for Democrats.
To get on the Indiana ballot for the May 4th primary, statewide candidates need signatures from 500 verified voters in each of the state’s nine congressional districts. Those must be turned in to the Indiana secretary of state by noon Friday.
But before that happens, candidates must first submit the signatures for verification to registrars in each of the state’s 92 counties. Only after the signatures are verified can the candidate then file with the secretary of state.
In the event that no Democrat can scramble quickly enough to get that done, the Democratic State Central Committee would then have to nominate a candidate by June 30 to fill the ballot spot for the general election—effectively giving the state party the ability to forestall a primary and allow top party officials to hand-pick their nominee.
The state central committee is comprised of 32 Democrats in the state and serves as the ruling body of the state party.
In a statement announcing his decision, Bayh insisted that his retirement “was not motivated by political concern.”
“Even in the current challenging environment, I am confident in my prospects for re-election,” he said.
Instead, Bayh continued, he was weary of the partisan sniping that has become so common in the capital, citing recent failures in the Senate to pass a deficit commission and jobs legislation.
“All of this and much more has led me to believe that there are better ways to serve my fellow citizens, my beloved state and our nation than continued service in Congress,” he said.
In his speech Monday afternoon, Bayh even went so far as to castigate the institution in which he and his father served in for decades.
"To put it in the words most people can understand: I love working for the people of Indiana, I love helping our citizens make the most of their lives, but I do not love Congress,” Bayh said in Indianapolis.
Bill Moreau, a former Bayh chief of staff, said the senator made the decision over the weekend.
“I think the last few years have been frustrating for him,” said Moreau.
Surely not far from Bayh’s mind, however, was the fate of his father, Birch Bayh. Like his son, Birch Bayh was widely viewed as an up-and-comer in the 70s-era Democratic Party—a talented pol who had the potential to steer the often-fractious party to the center.
But after an unsuccessful bid for his party’s presidential nomination in 1976, Bayh was upset in the Reagan landslide year of 1980 by a young Republican congressman named Dan Quayle.
Some Democrats also speculated that his father wasn’t the only family member Bayh had in mind in announcing his decision. Since Coats’ entry into the race, Republicans have, in pushing back against the onslaught of opposition research against the former senator-turned-lobbyist, made plain that they would target Bayh’s wife, Susan. An attorney, like her husband, Susan Bayh has made millions in recent years from sitting on a number of corporate boards, including those in the health and insurance industry.
Republicans, fending off questions about Coats’ Virginia residence, also signaled that they would hammer Bayh on the issue about where he lives. A recent National Republican Senatorial Committee email pictured the Washington, D.C., mansion where Bayh and his family reside.
His national ambitions apparent since his arrival in the Senate in 1999, Bayh "was never close to the leadership, he wasn't seen as a real team player," said one Democratic lobbyist close to Senate Democrats.
While Bayh's retirement stunned Reid and the rest of the leadership, there were some private signs that he might step down. Following the surprise decision last month by Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) to retire, Reid and other top Democrats circled back to members of their caucus up for reelection to get them to firmly commit to run.
Bayh, however, would not make that declaration, although Reid and his top lieutenants remained firmly convinced that he fully intended to run and win.
"Even three weeks ago, [Bayh] would not commit to running again," said a Senate Democratic insider. "I don't think anyone thought he was going to retire, but it now seems clear that he was on the fence. I just don't think anyone was able to interpret what he was signaling there."
Why Bayh's Exit Matters
Obama’s win in Indiana was proof that he was transcending the traditional red-blue divide. Peter Beinart on how the retirement of Sen. Evan Bayh endangers a Democratic dream.
To understand why Senator Evan Bayh’s surprise retirement is such a big deal, it’s important to realize that Indiana has always held a special place in the Democratic Party’s heart. It was the state, more than any other, which created the legend of Robert F. Kennedy’s 1968 presidential bid.
In the late 1960s, the state had a reputation for racism, a reputation built from decades of Klan power, and from its heavy support in 1964 for the presidential bid of arch-segregationist George Wallace. It was widely considered hostile to the kind of social transformation that liberal presidential candidates desire. Indiana, Arthur Schlesinger Jr. wrote to RFK, was “a middle-class, small-town, suburban state, fearful of challenge, seeking consolation and reassurance.” Not a good state for him at all.
But Kennedy spent the primary’s final days in a motorcade through the state’s gritty industrial north, flanked by Richard Hatcher, the young African-American mayor of Gary, and Tony Zale, a middleweight boxer and son of Eastern European immigrants beloved by the white ethnics who worked northern Indiana’s steel mills. In the end, Kennedy won, not only by sweeping the black vote but winning blue-collar whites as well. This “black-blue” coalition died alongside Kennedy in a Los Angeles hotel a month later, but for decades—as the nation’s politics moved right—liberals kept the dream alive.
It is partly this history that made Indiana so important to Barack Obama.
Republicans had taken the state in the 1968 presidential race, and held it ever since. But in the late Bush years, as economic distress in the state mounted, there were signs that perhaps a black-blue coalition was possible there again. In 2006, Indiana elected three new Democratic congressmen. Bayh, its Democratic senator, was a commanding figure in the state. In 2008, Obama went into the Indiana primary following painful losses in Ohio and Pennsylvania, losses that led many in the chattering class to wonder if he could ever win over the white beer and bowling crowd. But Obama came out of Indiana with a virtual draw, and more shockingly, he beat there John McCain there in the fall—becoming the first Democrat to win the state in more than 40 years.
Obama’s general election win in Indiana, along with his victories in North Carolina and Virginia, were central to his claim that he was transcending the red-blue divide, creating a new, less polarized political map, an enduring Democratic majority of the kind that had been lost when Robert Kennedy was gunned down.
It’s this dream that, for the foreseeable future, Evan Bayh’s retirement likely forecloses. Republicans will probably take the seat, given them both of the Hoosier state’s seats in the Senate, along with its gubernatorial mansion. Obama’s climate change agenda is unpopular in Indiana and his health-care reform effort is not faring much better. If a conservative Democrat like Evan Bayh fears he can’t win reelection in the state, it’s hard to imagine how Obama himself can win it again, absent a major shift in economic conditions.
For a party bracing for big losses in Congress, any retirement of a popular sitting senator is a blow. But this one represents something more: the death, once again, of the Democratic Party’s Indiana dream. After his primary victory, RFK remarked that, “The people here were fair to me. They gave me a chance. They listened to me. I could see this face, way in back in the crowd, and he was listening, really listening to me.” For Barack Obama, they don’t seem to be listening anymore.
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Sources: The Daily Beast, MSNBC, Politico, Google Maps
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