(Will (Sen.) Snowe drift? NBC News' Chuck Todd talks about the upcoming health care reform vote, and how after courting Sen. Olympia Snowe, Democrats expect her support.)
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Snowe says she'll back the Baucus health bill
A Republican senator says she will vote for a Democratic health care bill, breaking with her party on President Barack Obama's top legislative item.
Sen. Olympia Snowe kept virtually all of Washington guessing how she would vote until she announced it late in the Senate Finance Committee debate Tuesday. Until then, she told reporters, she had not even let Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, in on her secret.
She told her colleagues: "When history calls, history calls" even though she had some criticism of the bill.
Democrats, aware that Snowe could be the only Republican in Congress to vote for their health care overhaul, have spent months addressing her concerns about making health care affordable and how to pay for it.
"Ours is a balanced plan that can pass the Senate," declared Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, D-Mont., earlier in the hearing.
Health care legislation is expected to be on the Senate floor the week after next, said a spokesman for Reid, who must combine the Finance version with a more liberal proposal from the health committee.
The expected approval by Baucus' committee would push a remake of the U.S. health care system closer to reality than it has been in decades. Four other congressional committees finished their work before August and for months all eyes have been on the Finance panel, the one whose moderate makeup most closely resembles the Senate as a whole.
The committee's centrist legislation is also seen as the best building block for a compromise plan that could find favor on the Senate floor.
Baucus' 10-year, $829-billion plan would, for the first time, require most Americans to purchase insurance and it also aims to hold down spiraling medical costs over the long term. But questions persist about whether it would truly provide access to affordable coverage, particularly for self employed people with solid middle class incomes.
Much work would lie ahead before a bill could arrive on Obama's desk, but action by the Finance Committee would mark a significant advance, capping numerous delays as Baucus held marathon negotiating sessions — ultimately unsuccessful — aimed at producing a bipartisan bill.
With Democrats holding a 13-10 majority on the committee, the outcome of Tuesday's vote, expected after several hours of discussion by senators, was not in doubt. The legislation that passed the other House and Senate committees did so without a single Republican vote.
The Finance Committee's top Republican, Chuck Grassley of Iowa, gave voice to the GOP's concerns about the bill, saying it was "moving on a slippery slope to more and more government control of health care."
"There's a lot in this bill that's just a consensus that needs to be done, but there are other provisions of this bill that raise a lot of questions," Grassley said, contending the legislation would mean higher costs for Americans.
One of the biggest unanswered questions is whether the legislation would slow punishing increases in the nation's health care costs, particularly for the majority who now have coverage through employers. The insurance industry insists it would shift new costs onto those who have coverage.
Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf, under questioning by Republican senators, acknowledged that the bill's total impact on the nation's health care costs is still unknown. The CBO has been able to establish that the legislation would reduce federal government deficits, but Elmendorf said his staff has not had time to evaluate its effects on privately insured people. Government programs pay about half the nation's annual $2.5 trillion health care tab.
Expanding coverage to the uninsured is likely to lead to more health care spending, Elmendorf said. But other provisions, such as a tax on high-premium health care plans, could push spending down. "We simply have not done the analysis to net that out," he said.
One Democrat expressed misgivings about the legislation. Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon said the bill doesn't do enough to promote consumer choice and guarantee affordability. "We clearly have more to do," Wyden said, without revealing how he'll vote.
Once the Finance Committee has acted, the dealmaking can begin in earnest with Reid, working with White House staff, Baucus and others to blend the Finance bill with a more liberal version passed by the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.
Baucus' bill includes consumer protections such as limits on copays and deductibles and relies on federal subsidies to help lower-income families purchase coverage. Insurance companies would have to take all comers, and people could shop for insurance within new state marketplaces called exchanges.
Medicaid would be expanded, and though employers wouldn't be required to cover their workers, they'd have to pay a penalty for each employee who sought insurance with government subsidies. The bill is paid for by cuts to Medicare providers and new taxes on insurance companies and others.
Unlike the other health care bills in Congress, Baucus' would not allow the government to sell insurance in competition with private companies, a divisive element sought by liberals.
Last-minute changes made subsidies more generous and softened the penalties for those who don't comply with a proposed new mandate for everyone to buy insurance. The latter change drew the ire of the health insurance industry, which said that without a strong and enforceable requirement, not enough people would get insured and premiums would jump for everyone else.
A major question mark for Reid's negotiations is whether he will include some version of a so-called public plan in the merged bill. Across the Capitol, House Democratic leaders are working to finalize their bill, which does contain a public plan, and floor action is expected in both chambers in coming weeks. If passed, the legislation would then go to a conference committee to reconcile differences.
Sens: Snowe's healthcare vote puts her top Commerce perch at risk
Sen. Olympia Snowe (Maine) is risking a shot at becoming the top Republican on an influential Senate committee by backing Democratic healthcare legislation, according to senators on the panel.
A Senate Democrat on the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee said Republicans on the panel are threatening to vote against Snowe, who is in line for the senior GOP post that is about to come open.
“Wake up,” the Democrat told a reporter last week when questioned if the Republicans would retaliate against Snowe for crossing party lines.
Snowe, a potential swing vote on the Senate Finance Committee, could give Democrats a major boost Tuesday when that panel holds a final vote on Chairman Max Baucus’s (D-Mont.) bill. She could also support the bill in the coming weeks on the Senate floor.
“A vote for healthcare would be something that would weigh on our minds when it came time to vote,” said a Republican on Commerce, who said Snowe would otherwise be assured of the ranking member post if not for the healthcare debate.
Every other GOP member of Finance is expected to vote against the healthcare bill.
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (Texas), the senior Republican on Commerce, is preparing to leave the chamber to run for governor in the coming weeks.
The Republicans on Commerce will pick Hutchison’s replacement, with the entire conference ratifying that decision. Seniority is usually the most important consideration, but party loyalty could trump that.
Snowe represents the biggest wildcard for the GOP at Tuesday’s Finance vote. If she supports the bill, Democrats can claim a bipartisan product heading into the floor debate.
Her vote would diminish the threat of two Democrats who have strongly criticized Baucus’s legislation and whose votes are by no means guaranteed.
A spokesman for Snowe did not respond to a request for comment for this article.
Snowe’s policy concerns include weighing how the bill, which imposes a heavy tax on high-cost insurance plans, would affect her home state, where healthcare coverage ranks among the most expensive in the country.
She also has to determine whether the bill does enough to subsidize the healthcare costs of Americans who would be required under the bill to buy insurance, a concern she has repeatedly raised.
And she must determine whether the cost estimate provided by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) can be trusted.
Complicating the situation is the timing of Hutchison’s departure from the Senate, which could come this month or in November, at the height of the healthcare debate on the chamber floor.
“Olympia’s vote on healthcare could be a very fresh development by the time it came to replacing Kay,” said the GOP Commerce Committee lawmaker, who requested anonymity because the prospect of voting against a colleague is a sensitive subject.
Republicans will already be thinking about how Snowe has voted against her GOP colleagues many times this year. A tally by The Washington Post found that she voted with her party 58.4 percent of the time over the course of 308 votes, including on the $787 billion stimulus bill. Only Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) posted a lower party unity score (58.1 percent).
Snowe is the ranking Republican on the Small Business Committee, but she would likely give up that post to take the more prestigious slot on the Commerce panel, a significantly more powerful committee.
Republican sources could not recall an instance in the last two decades when Republican senators voted to upset the seniority system.
The closest they came was in January of 1987, when Republican members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted to seat Sen. Richard Lugar (Ind.) as the senior Republican on the panel over the late Sen. Jesse Helms (N.C.), who had more seniority. But the committee’s action was overturned by a vote of the entire Republican Conference, which voted to “preserve the vital principles of party unity and Senate seniority.”
Snowe is helped by the fact that a rival for the post has yet to emerge. Sen. John Ensign (Nev.), the third-ranking Republican on the panel, has taken a hit publicly because of a recent sex scandal. The fourth-ranking Republican is Sen. Jim DeMint (S.C.), who has been outspoken in his calls to defeat the Democratic healthcare bill.
Democrats have their own party-unity issues with Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.), who had threatened to vote against the bill if significant changes were not made, and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who blasted the measure after being denied a vote on an amendment.
Rockefeller did win a big change in the legislation when the panel adopted an amendment that would preserve the Children’s Health Insurance Program, which he helped create. Baucus had initially proposed taking many children out of the program and putting them into insurance exchanges, where they would be eligible for new federal subsidies. President Barack Obama has met with Rockefeller and Wyden in recent weeks to seek their votes, and subsequently called Rockefeller on the phone.
Wyden, who is upset the measure does not make insurance exchanges available to those with employer-provided insurance, has made no overt threats against the bill. To the contrary, he has indicated that he will try to change it at other points in the process, such as during floor debate and conference negotiations.
Baucus expects to have the votes, and after it is approved, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) will merge the bill with one approved in July by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.
Reid would like to bring legislation to the floor as soon as next week, said a Democratic aide. The floor debate could take two or three weeks.
What is Olympia Snowe thinking?
The only mystery left around the Senate Finance Committee’s health reform vote Tuesday is this:
What is Olympia Snowe thinking?
Snowe is the last Republican left who might vote for Chairman Max Baucus’s bill — holding the key to whether Democrats can claim bipartisan support, or must go it alone.
She’s been cagey, but consistent. Snowe doesn’t like the bill's penalties for people who don’t buy insurance. But she likes the overall price tag, well under $1 trillion. She’s even hinted at casting one vote in committee and a different vote on the floor.
“They’ve got me voting yes, preserving my leverage. Voting no, preserving my leverage,” Snowe said recently of all the commentary about her decision. “It’s all about what I’m comfortable doing at the end of the day.”
Here’s a look inside the vote and Snowe’s thinking:
IF SNOWE VOTES YES: This is clearly the outcome Baucus is rooting for, as he made a lot of concessions to bring her on board, including cutting the no-insurance penalties by more than half. The bipartisan nod Snowe brings to the bill strengthens Baucus’s hand as he, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee’s Chris Dodd merge the Health and Finance committee bills.
Snowe’s buy-in makes it easier for Baucus and Reid to sell reform to moderate Democrats — think Sens. Mary Landrieu, Ben Nelson and Evan Bayh — who are arguably more conservative than their colleague from Maine.
And it positions Snowe to grab a bigger seat at the decision-making table as Reid crafts a bill to send to the Senate floor. Not to mention, the headlines all laud Baucus for landing a Republican vote and give Democrats the “big mo.”
Democrats could overplay their hands: Look for Republicans to push back hard against any narrative that suggests a solitary GOP vote suddenly makes the bill bipartisan.
IF SNOWE VOTES NO: This will be written as a major setback for Democrats, plain and simple.
For Baucus, this one stings because he would have put so much time and effort into wooing Snowe, all for naught. He doesn’t get the hero’s welcome, or a carrot to entice moderate Democrats.
And the failure to win Snowe’s support in Finance will raise questions about whether Baucus and Reid can win her support on the floor. Remember, Nelson (D-Neb.) has said he didn’t want to vote for an all-Democratic bill, and other moderates could be jittery without the bipartisan cover Snowe provides.
As for Snowe, she may find herself with a less influential voice moving forward as Democrats begin to question whether she’s really serious about passing reform. The headlines may be the biggest problem for Dems as they’ll slow the mo' and cast doubts on what should be a very big day for Baucus and reform.
So what should she do?
There are two schools of thought:
A) Vote no, and preserve her leverage as it goes to the floor. Otherwise, Reid takes her for granted and goes searching for another Republican who might support it, though his choices are extremely limited, as Snowe’s fellow Mainer Susan Collins hasn’t sounded too promising.
b) Vote yes, and the White House argues that wins her a seat at the merger discussions: “She gets her greatest leverage by voting for it in committee, because then she’s a part of the discussions to merge the bill, because once you have her in committee, you have to keep her for the floor. Because now you’ve committed yourself to a 60-vote track. If she wants to be for something in the end, the worst thing she could do is vote against it in committee, and then allow there to be a sense that it’s headed to reconciliation, and the progressives are going to push incredibly hard for a bunch of things she’s uncomfortable with, like a full public plan.”
Don’t forget the caveats: Snowe has left herself enough room that no matter how she votes today she’ll be able to change it later.
A no today can become a yes tomorrow as Snowe continues using her leverage to shape the bill.
Conversely, a yes today can switch overnight if she feels Democratic leadership stepped all over her concerns while shaping the legislation. As Democrats’ last best hope at winning a GOP vote, Snowe will continue to hold a good deal of sway. If she votes no, some observers may start ringing the reconciliation bell — a rookie mistake, according to some insiders.
Nevertheless, if Snowe votes no, there will be consideration — and certainly speculation — about a reconciliation track, the use of a procedural effort that requires only a simple majority to pass legislation.
But make no mistake, it still looks highly unlikely, because it’s so messy. White House and Democratic leadership would have to do a quick analysis to see if they could get every Democrat to vote for cloture. They still say it’s much easier to do this the regular way.
And reconciliation isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. The Democrats would lose a lot of control when they put so many decisions in the hands of the parliamentarian — who gets to decide what’s in and what’s out. Even some liberals say the optics of that would be terrible, an unelected official getting to decide which pieces of health legislation could come to the floor, for a one-party vote by the Democrats, on an issue where polls show the country is still deeply divided.
And there are pieces of health reform that simply won’t fit with reconciliation — which is supposed to be for budgetary matters — and where Democrats will definitely need 60 votes. Even if they’re popular pieces of the legislation, it’s hard to imagine the Republicans will do anything other than simply vote “no.”
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Sources: MSNBC, Huffington Post, The Hill, Politico, Google Maps
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